中国国防支出的就业效应分析

本文研究了1978-2007年间中国国防支出对就业水平的影响,结果表明：（1）中国国防支出与就业水平之间存在长期的均衡关系;（2）长期来看,国防支出与就业水平之间存在双向格兰杰因果关系;（3）不论在长期还是在短期,中国的国防支出对就业水平都没有促进作用,可能的原因是我国国防支出的增加主要用于引进先进的军事技术、装备以及提高军人福利待遇上,从而对就业的影响很小。因此,我国国防支出应适当向军事领域的人力资本投入和军事科研经费投入上倾斜,这样可以加速国外先进技术和装备的本土化进程,进而加快军用技术的民用化,减少国防支出的＂挤出＂效应,从而实现国防开支与就业的良性循环。     

中国近年来经济增长与 就业增长间数量关系解释

本文尝试解释为何中国就业变化和经济增长间数量关系并不稳定,两个问题将被处理：（1）就业数据是否有偏误;（2）一些中国特有的影响因素在就业和增长关系间是否有调节作用。本文的研究发现：（1）统计局公布的城镇增加就业数据大致可靠;（2）经济增长对就业有显著拉动作用,也就是说使用另一种表达的奥肯定律得到论证;（3）国有经济部门在就业和增长间起到了调节作用,并且对经济周期不同阶段影响有对称性。     

A simple test of the theory of the short-run Phillips curve

The theory of the Phillips curve is reexamined taking into account the relationship between workers and firms. Emphasis is given to the firm's role in determining employment and hours over the business cycle. Empirical relations between real wages, employment and unemployment using distributed lag estimation are examined.     

技术创新、劳动力就业与产业模式选择:假说、框架和检验

从技术和劳动力的替代关系假说出发,探讨中国产业发展过程中技术创新、劳动力就业和产业模式之间的内在联系。研究发现:随着劳动效率的提升,三次产业内部确实存在技术替代劳动力的情况;但从整体和长期来看,技术创新虽然推动了产业结构调整和经济增长,但对劳动力就业总量的影响不显著;只有当大规模技术变革引起产业发生结构性变动时,技术替代劳动力所带来的失业现象才会出现。得出结论:就业在相当大的程度上表现为宏观经济增长的结果,与技术创新的关系并不明朗。     

中国第三产业发展与就业增长关系的实证研究

根据发达国家经济发展经验,第三产业的发展能够有效地拉动就业的增加。同样就业的增加也会反过来拉动经济的发展。通过对第三产业经济增长和就业关系进行ADF检验、协整关系检验和格兰杰因果关系检验,发现第三产业增长率与其就业增长率之间存在长期稳定的关系;第三产业劳动力就业增长率是第三产业增长率的格兰杰原因,反之则不成立,即中国第三产业就业规模的扩大将不断地为第三产业创造更多的增加值,但是第三产业产值的增加并不能明显地带动就业的增长。     

新时期非典型雇佣的发展趋势及策略分析

非典型雇佣方式的快速发展和演化,使雇佣关系向组织外部转移的趋势越来越明显,市场对雇佣关系的控制力越来越大,单纯依靠企业内部的管理尚不能完成对非典型雇佣方式的管理,由此引发了非典型雇佣发展的一系列突出问题。金融危机背景下,企业为重获成本优势越来越依赖于非典型雇佣方式,使非典型雇佣方式越来越普及化,这就意味着,市场和政府必须对此进行合理的引导和规范,企业要健全人力资源管理体系,本文将针对非典型雇佣方式发展遇到的问题进行策略分析。     

宏观经济景气波动对就业增长的影响

中国不成熟的市场经济和特殊的人口环境使得用就业弹性和奥肯定律均无法有效反映我国经济增长与就业关系,更无法刻画经济波动对就业的冲击。本文从宏观经济景气波动影响就业增长的三个路径：劳动力供给、劳动力需求和政府公共就业政策来建立系统的分析模型,以探析经济波动与就业增长的长期均衡关系和滞后冲击效应。在劳动力供给系统中,经济波动使经济活动人口增多,加快了就业增长;在劳动力需求系统中,经济波动不利于经济增长,从而不利于劳动力需求增长;在政府就业促进政策系统中,社会保障和就业的投入缓和了经济波动对就业增长的冲击。     

转型期中国就业重构与城乡居民收入分配——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

笔者利用1992年～ 2009年的省际面板数据,就中国就业重构对城乡居民收入分配的影响进行实证分析与检验.结果表明,就业重构方向与城乡居民收入分配极化负相关,就业重构速度与城乡居民收入分配极化正相关；受城乡劳动力市场分割与城乡居民人力资本水平差异的约束,就业重构对城乡居民收入分配的极化效应大于平衡效应；在区域层面,就业重构对城乡居民收入分配的净极化效应由大到小的顺序分别为中部、西部和东部.     

Is there a Laffer curve between aggregate output and public sector employment?

This paper develops a model of the relationship between public sector employment, total output and aggregate real demand in market prices, where public employment has a positive productivity effect on private output. Public employment crowds out private employment and output because its increase induces higher wages and taxes. The valuation of government output is also taken into account. While public employment affects total output and aggregate real demand in an a priori ambiguous way, numerical simulations suggest that the relationship may be nonlinear; positive, when public sector is “small” and negative, when it is “large”. Using the annual data from 22 OECD countries over the period 1960–1996 and estimating and testing for threshold models and more commonly used specifications with multiplicative interaction terms give support to this nonlinearity hypothesis between public employment and private sector output. First version received: October 1996/Final version received: April 2000     

Explanations of the demand for labour in the United Kingdom engineering sector

This paper presents a set of employment functions for nine individual engineering industries using annual data for the period 1954–1987 for the United Kingdom. A brief review alternative theoretical specifications is undertaken. A set of co-integrating regressions is computed to establish the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between employment and inter aliaoutput and real wages. Based on the results of the co-integration exercise, full unrestricted dynamic equations are obtained and these are then reduced to a more parsimonious representation. The finally preferred restricted models are then tested against a number of diagnostic statistical criteria to establish their robust and efficient properties. The value of these equations for explaining past and predicting future employment and training in the engineering sector is assessed.     

Tenure, business cycle and the wage-setting process

We analyze the interaction between job tenure and external labor market conditions in wage determination. First, we introduce a model that combines job matching with business-cycle effects. As the employment relationship progresses, the worker appropriates a portion of the value of the match-specific human capital she accumulates, gradually becoming shielded from the cyclical variations in external labor market conditions: the employment relationship is progressively “internalized”. Then, we present empirical evidence supporting this prediction: the elasticity of wages to the unemployment rate decreases with tenure. This finding is robust to different specifications that allow for job heterogeneity, and it contributes to the interpretation of recent evidence of changes in the effect of the business cycle on wages.     

Inflation Rate Variability and the Phillips Curve

This paper studies the relationship between inflation and unemployment by focusing on the effect of inflation rate uncertainty on real wages, employment and output. The effect of inflation on employment is shown to depend on the relationship between the mean rate of inflation and the variability of its forecasts. This can explain why the Phillips curve is negatively slopped in some periods and undetermined or positively slopped in others.     

Strategic transmission of information and short-term commitment

Summary. We examine the strategic role of information transmission in a repeated principal-agent relationship where the agent produces information that is useful to the principal. The agent values continuous employment for the principal because he makes a relationship-specific investment that can yield rents to him when the relationship is renewed. Assuming that the parties are sufficiently impatient, we show that full disclosure of the information produced occurs early in the relationship when the principal can commit to a long-term relationship, when the agent observes his valuation of continuous employment after making a report on information produced, or when the agent obtains a low valuation of continuous employment before making a report. By contrast, a strategic delay in the transmission of information occurs when the principal can only commit to a short-term relationship and the agent obtains a high valuation of continuous employment before making a report. Received: October 15, 1997; revised version: July 27, 1998     

我国城市化对就业影响效应分析——基于1978-2010年的经验数据

利用1978—2010年的时间序列数据,通过协整分析、脉冲响应分析和方差分解,对我国城市化对全社会就业总量、城镇就业量和乡村就业量的长期影响效应及动态过程进行了实证分析。结果表明:我国人口城市化与各就业量之间存在长期稳定均衡关系,城市化无论对我国就业还是对城乡就业均存在正向效应,但对城镇就业的推动作用要远大于对乡村就业及全社会就业的推动作用;我国城市化对就业的中短期影响效应与长期影响效应不一致;在中短期内,城市化水平的提升对城镇就业的影响程度相对长期而言要较弱,而对全社会就业和乡村就业不仅不存在正向的促进作用,反而存在一定程度的抑制作用。最后,分析了导致上述差异的原因,并就在我国城市化进程中如何有效提高我国就业水平提出相应的政策建议。     

经济增长对促进就业的经济学分析

经济增长与就业的相互关系一直是经济学家研究的热点,也是政府关注的焦点。经济学常识告诉我们,经济增长与就业之间存在着正相关的关系,并且经济增长能够带动就业的增长,只是在不同国家和地区之间的表现形式不同而已。通过建立计量经济学模型,定量分析1978-2012年间我国经济增长与促进就业的具体依存关系,得到相关结论并提出进一步促进就业的政策建议。     

Did the German Minimum Wage Reform Influence (Un)employment Growth in 2015? Evidence from Regional Data

Using the variation across space, age and sex and the variation across space and sectors, we analyse the relationship between the minimum wage and (un)employment growth in 2015. We use difference‐in‐differences specifications and instrument the bite of the minimum wage by the lagged bite. The results provide stable evidence that a higher minimum wage bite is related to a higher growth rate of regular employment. We also find stable evidence that a higher minimum wage bite is related to a lower growth rate of marginal employment. These results are consistent with a transformation of marginal to regular jobs. The relationship to total employment is slightly positive in our preferred specification but insignificant or negative in others. For unemployment, we find a positive relationship between the bite of the minimum wage and unemployment growth in our preferred specification but insignificant or negative results in others.     

Incentives to Work: Replacement Ratios and the Cost of Job Loss among Indigenous Australians

The relationship between the social welfare system and employment incentives has received considerable attention in the literature. This paper uses data from the National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Survey to consider these issues for indigenous Australians. Two measures are calculated: the replacement ratio which measures the expected gains from employment for those not in work; and the cost of job loss which measures the expected costsof becoming unemployed for those in employment. The estimates presented here show that the replacement ratio is higher for females than males and for those in a married or de facto relationship compared with single people. About 5 per cent of single males and females could expect a higher income from social security than from non-Community Development Employment Projects (CDEP)scheme employment. Among those with dependent partners 24 per cent of males and 40 per cent of females looking for work could expect a higher income from social security than from non-CDEP employment. The estimates of the cost of job loss, which include the effects of the duration of unemployment and the replacementratio, show a high cost for some indigenous Australians because of their expected longer duration of unemployment.     

论大学特色化与就业率的辩证关系

用唯物辩证法的观点,探寻大学特色化与就业率之间的辩证关系,更好地推进大学科学发展,既有理论意义,也有现实意义。大学特色化与就业率之间既相互联系,又相对独立,这种辩证统一关系的落实处,就是持续创新办学特色,保证就业率稳步提高。     

Self-employment and the Okun's law

This research establishes a significant relationship between the share of self-employment in total employment and the Okun's coefficient, which had been insufficiently addressed in the literature. We provide evidence on the determinants driving the differences in the unemployment–output relationship in Spanish regions and conclude that the differences in the share of self-employment in total employment prove relevant when accounting for differences in Okun's law, and its effect is greater than that of labour productivity per worker, which had been considered the main factor for regional discrepancies. The economic policy implications of this outcome are valuable for two reasons: European authorities are promoting self-employment and the emergence of the ‘gig economy’. This finding also opens a notable line of research: assessing whether this empirical regularity is observable in other economies.     

经济增长与大学生就业非一致性变动的实证研究

中国2001—2008年经济增长迅猛。对中国经济增长与大学毕业生就业之间的关系考察后发现：经济增长并没有拉动大学生就业的增长,经济增长与大学生就业之间存在非一致性的变动关系。为此,政府必须采取切实可行的政策鼓励大学生创业,拓宽就业渠道,提高第三产业吸纳大学生就业等措施,真正做到经济增长与大学生就业的同步发展。