Value and risk dynamics over the innovation cycle

This paper studies investment in intellectual capital and corresponding value and risk dynamics over the innovation cycle. We assume that the innovation cycle consists of three phases, R&D, trial, and market introduction phases. We use a real option investment model to characterize firm value and risk dynamics over the innovation cycle and find that firm value is the sum of the value of assets in place and non-linear option values related to breakthrough, exit, and market introduction options. Firm risk over the innovation cycle is highly non-linear and quite distinct in different phases. During the R&D phase risk is high as the firm faces high operating leverage originating from R&D fixed costs together with technological uncertainty. During the trial phase risk is significantly lower and dominated by option risk to launch the product in the market while after the introduction of the product in the market risk is equivalent to the asset risk of the company. Our model is consistent with the view that positive excess returns of R&D intensive firms are a compensation for risk. Based on this insight we derive several testable predictions.     

我国物流法律体系建设的思考

我国物流业的快速发展及物流业在国民经济社会中的重要作用,使得建立统一物流法的呼声越来越高。通过分析现状及存在问题,结合物流业及相关法律制定的实际情况,给出了物流立法应稳健有序进行的基本原则及具体措施。     

基于HLA的器材保障物流系统仿真模型研究

为探讨基于HLA的建模仿真技术在器材保障物流仿真领域中的应用,作者在分析器材保障物流系统运行框架的基础上,结合FEDEP模型,构建了基于HLA的器材保障物流系统仿真模型,接着研究了仿真模型中的联邦功能模型,开发了仿真联邦成员,建立了联邦体系结构模型,并对联邦运行模型中的初始化、仿真运行、仿真结束三个阶段分别进行了分析,实现高效、精确模拟器材保障物流系统的运行过程。     

Intensity-based framework and penalty formulation of optimal stopping problems

Financial derivatives commonly contain premature termination clauses, which are embedded rights held by the holder or writer. Well known examples of these stopping rights include the early exercise right in American options, the callable right in callable securities and the prepayment right in mortgage loans. In this paper, we show how to model the mortgagor's prepayment in mortgage loans and the issuer's call in the American warrant as an event risk using the intensity based approach, where the propensity of prepayment or calling is modeled by the intensity of a Poisson process. We illustrate that the corresponding pricing formulation resembles the penalty approximation approach commonly used in the solution of the linear complementarity formulation of an optimal stopping problem. We obtain several theoretical results on the prepayment strategies of mortgage loans and calling policies of American warrants. We also propose robust second order accurate numerical schemes for solving the penalty formulation of an optimal stopping problem.     

建筑企业工程量清单计价规则应用中的若干问题

本文通过分析工程量清单计价模式下,建筑企业应从投标之前的计价报价阶段、中标之后至签订施工合同阶段和签订施工合同之后至竣工结算阶段的三个阶段入手,分析清单计价模式下在三个不同阶段涉及到的相关问题及对建设单位和施工单位的影响,并深入探讨了在清单计价模式的影响下施工单位的应对措施。     

COINTEGRATION AND CHANGES IN REGIME: THE JAPANESE CONSUMPTION FUNCTION

In this paper we examine a model of cointegration where long-run parameters are subject to switching between several different cointegrating regimes. These shifts are allowed to be governed by the outcome of an unobserved Markov chain with unknown transition probabilities. We illustrate this approach using Japanese data on consumption and disposable income, and find that the data favour a Markov-switching long-run relationship over a standard temporally stable formulation. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Outside and inside the regression “black box” from exploratory to interior data analysis

Good data analysis consists of three phases: (1) preliminary analysis, (2) confirmatory analysis (model testing), and (3) interior analysis (model checking). Social scientists doing quantitative research usually concentrate on only one of the three: confirmatory analysis. I argue that there is much to be learned from careful preliminary and interior analyses. I present an extensive example of data analysis for each of the three phases using the same data set in each phase. Rather than surveying all the possible tools available in each phase of data analysis, I concentrate on Exploratory Data Analysis techniques (stem-and-leaf plot, letter-value display, box plot, and power transformations) for the preliminary phase, on OLS for the confirmatory phase, and on residuals, leverage and single-case influence measures for interior analysis.     

Application and extension of the Moore and ReVelle Hierarchical Maximal Covering Model

In a paper published in Management Science in 1982, George Moore and Charles ReVelle proposed a location model for siting a hierarchical system of medical facilities. In this paper we apply the Moore and ReVelle Hierarchical Maximal Covering Model to the location of medical facilities in the Kohat district in Pakistan. Optimal solutions of the Moore and ReVelle model are compared against the actual location of medical facilities in this district. We then extend the Moore and ReVelle formulation to include fixed and variable costs for siting and operating the facilities. We compare the solutions of that formulation with the results of the original Moore and ReVelle model.     

工业品营销战略研究

通过分析工业品客户的购买行为,以及传统工业品营销中存在的问题,本文提出了工业品营销战略模型,模型把工业品营销流程划分为五个阶段,并研究了工业品营销战略,有助于工业品生产企业有效地开展营销工作。     

A Bayesian adaptive design in clinical trials for continuous responses

Adaptive design is a popular concept in several clinical trials, especially in phase III trials. The idea is to allocate treatments to the entering patients according to the state of art of the present data, i.e., to allocate a larger number of patients to the better treatment. The present paper provides a Bayesian formulation of an adaptive allocation design for clinical trials that considers all the continuous responses along with the associated covariates for future allocation. Some Bayesian inferences followed by the allocation are discussed along with a Bayesian prediction for future allocation. The convergence of the allocation probabilities is also discussed along with some related logistics of the design.     

The changing role of network ties and critical capabilities in an international new venture’s early development

The importance of networks for firm internationalization has been pointed out for several decades. Especially for small and new firms, networks have been found to be an important tool to gain access to resources and to overcome liabilities of newness, smallness and foreignness. Yet, there is a lack of understanding regarding which types of capabilities are developed through networking and how and when networks are used. The aim of this article is to explore how and when different networking activities develop critical capabilities during different phases of an international new venture’s early development. The article is based on a longitudinal, in-depth case study of a Swedish international new venture from the medical-technology industry. We find that the development process is greatly affected by how the individual key actors leverage their network ties to develop critical capabilities – they use existing network ties and different indirect ties during the pre-founding, start-up and establishment of production phases. During the commercialization and sales growth phases, however, many new network ties are developed. The heterogeneity of the individual actors’ backgrounds plays an important role during the different developmental phases. We conclude by advancing a number of propositions in relation to how critical capabilities are developed through networking during different developmental phases.     

影响独立学院发展的深层次矛盾与制度性支撑条件

本文介绍了独立学院的由来、特征、运作模式,深入探讨了独立学院目前存在的核心问题,即规模发展权、招生计划控制权、收费标准制定权等与市场运作机制的矛盾,层次定位与属地化管理的矛盾,经营性与公益性的矛盾,个性化发展与宏观政策统一性的矛盾.     

A multiobjective integer programming model for the land acquisition problem

The purpose of this paper is to present a multiobjective integer programming formulation for the analysis of the land acquisition problem. There are two important contributions of this paper. First, the model incorporates the discrete and multiobjective nature of land acquisition. Second, we present an efficient, specialized algorithm for finding non-inferior solutions of a multiobjective integer program, a problem for which a general-purpose algorithm, applicable to moderately sized problems, does not exist.     

发展低碳经济的制度性思考

在地球能源日益紧张和枯竭的背景下,在人类生存环境日益恶化的状况下,提出发展低碳经济显得更加具有现实意义。发展低碳经济是能够使社会经济发展与生态环境保护达到双赢的一种新的经济发展方式。文章针对我国低碳经济发展的现状,发展低碳经济的制度性缺陷,从制度层方面提出了具体的发展低碳经济的若干建议,旨在对我国的低碳经济发展有所借鉴。     

Evaluating the accuracy of value-at-risk forecasts: New multilevel tests

We propose independence and conditional coverage tests which are aimed at evaluating the accuracy of Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts from the same model at different confidence levels. The proposed procedures are multilevel tests, i.e., joint tests of several quantiles corresponding to different confidence levels. In a comprehensive Monte Carlo exercise, we document the superiority of the proposed tests with respect to existing multilevel tests. In an empirical application, we illustrate the implementation of the tests using several VaR models and daily data for 15 MSCI world indices.     

Drop-the-loser design in the presence of covariates

In the present work we develop a randomized two-treatment adaptive allocation design with covariates ensuring smaller variability of treatment allocations. We study, both numerically and theoretically, several exact and limiting properties of the design and consider an inferential problem following the allocation design. We compare the design with some of the existing allocation designs by computing its various performance measures.     

城市餐厨垃圾逆向物流回收系统设计探析

餐厨垃圾所导致的环境问题、社会和健康问题越来越受到人们的关注。文中通过对城市餐厨垃圾现行回收逆向物流系统的运行模式与现状进行归纳,分析存在的问题,在此基础上设计城市餐厨垃圾回收逆向物流系统新模型。     

北京城区展览馆空间布局演变及特征

以北京城区展览馆的空间分布特征为切入点,将展览馆空间分布的发展阶段分为新中国成立至1970年、1970年至1990年和1990年至今三个阶段,重点分析了其历史演变过程中每个阶段的空间分布特点及成因,认为北京城区展览馆空间分布呈现总体集中和局部分散的特征,并分别从城区之间的差异、长安街及其延长线为界的南北差异以及交通环线的角度,指出北京展览馆空间分布存在的问题,分析了其影响因素,并对北京展览馆的未来发展提出对策建议。     

Successful programs wanted: Exploring the impact of alignment

Alignment between formulation and implementation of business strategy can be important for achieving successful programs. The authors have explored the development of a program management alignment theory. Statistical testing showed that interaction between the study model variables was found to be multidimensional, complex, and subtle in influence. Thus, the authors conclude that programs have both deliberate and emergent strategies requiring design and management to be organized as complex adaptive systems. Program life‐cycle phases of design and transition were often formed from an unclear and confusing strategic picture at the outset, which can make those phases difficult to control. Learning was established as an underlying challenge. The study model demonstrated continuous alignment as an essential attribute contributing toward successful delivery. This requires program design and structure to adopt an adaptive posture.     

Modeling integrated supply chain logistics in real-time large-scale disaster relief operations

The goal of this research is to develop a comprehensive model that describes the integrated logistics operations in response to natural disasters. We propose a mathematical model that controls the flow of several relief commodities from the sources through the supply chain and until they are delivered to the hands of recipients. The structure of the network is in compliance with FEMA's complex logistics structure. The proposed model not only considers details such as vehicle routing and pick up or delivery schedules; but also considers finding the optimal locations for several layers of temporary facilities as well as considering several capacity constraints for each facility and the transportation system. Such an integrated model provides the opportunity for a centralized operation plan that can eliminate delays and assign the limited resources to the best possible use.A set of numerical experiments is designed to test the proposed formulation and evaluate the properties of the optimization problem. The numerical analysis shows the capabilities of the model to handle the large-scale relief operations with adequate details. However, the problem size and difficulty grows rapidly by extending the length of the operations or when the equity among recipients is considered. In these cases, it is suggested to find fast solution algorithms and heuristic methods in future research.