中国贸易条件的变化

随着我国参与国际贸易程度的加深,我国的对外贸易条件发生了怎样的变化?本文就在国际经济学理论基础上,从经济增长、收入转移、贸易政策几个方面来分析近年来我国贸易条件的发展变化。     

中国贸易条件及其影响因素的经验分析:1980-2002

本文利用1980-2002年的数据分别对我国的价格贸易条件和收入贸易条件进行实证分析。结果表明工业制成品出口和外资企业出口是导致价格贸易条件恶化的最重要原因,而出口量和顺差是促使收入贸易条件提高的最重要因素。另外,初级产品进口是随工业制品的出口而影响贸易条件的,而外资企业出口对价格贸易条件的恶化效应大于其对收入贸易条件的改善效应。     

改善中国价格贸易条件的对策

近年来,中国对外贸易的规模迅速扩大,但价格贸易条件却出现了恶化的趋势。中国价格贸易条件恶化的诱因有不合理的外贸政策、外资结构以及外国贸易壁垒等。因此,改善中国价格贸易条件应采取合理调整外贸政策,合理利用外资以及发展绿色产业等对策。     

中国制造业的贸易竞争力与价格贸易条件——基于微观贸易数据的测算

通过建立SITC五位数分类商品与制造业28个行业的对照表,利用微观贸易数据对中国制造业28个行业的贸易竞争指数和价格贸易条件进行测算,结果显示:第一,劳动密集型行业的贸易竞争指数较高,但其价格贸易条件持续恶化;相反,资本密集型行业的贸易竞争指数较低,但其价格贸易条件不断改善。第二,中高技术制造行业的价格贸易条件和贸易竞争指数同向变化,呈现"价量齐涨"的趋势;中低技术制造行业的贸易竞争指数和价格贸易条件反向变动,呈现"量涨价跌"的趋势。第三,进一步发展中高技术行业,同时提升中低技术行业出口产品的质量是防止中国制造业出现"贫困化增长"的有效途径。     

我国纺织品收入贸易条件与贸易结构关系研究

贸易条件作为衡量贸易利益和出口竞争力的重要指标,对其研究越来越受到各国的关注.本文通过2003～2012年我国纺织品按HS编码分类的商品历年进出口数据,按照国际贸易标准分成9类,建立面板数据,分析分散度指数、结构变化指数、显示性比较优势指数、技术含量以及世界进口增长率等贸易结构因素与收入贸易条件①变动的相关程度,提出了改善我国纺织品贸易条件与贸易结构的建议.     

中国对外经济关系中的贸易条件：一般趋势与影响因素

长期以来。贸易条件都被认为是衡量一国获取贸易利益大小的一项重要指标,各国对贸易条件的变动都十分关注。通过收集中国历年来贸易条件数据,首先分析了过去这些年来中国价格贸易条件的变动趋势,然后先从理论和实证方面分析了影响中国价格贸易条件变动的主要因素与贸易条件之间的关系。最后根据模型结论提出相应对策,以使贸易条件朝着中国对外贸易有利的方向发展,使中国从贸易大国转变成真正的贸易强国。     

加工贸易对我国贸易条件的影响分析

文章利用Eviews软件,对1994年~2004年的加工贸易进出口数据、价格贸易条件和收入贸易条件数据进行了简单的统计分析,得出的结论是:加工贸易进出口额增长率、竞争力指数、增值系数的变动均会引起价格贸易条件的下降,而进出口额增长率则对收入贸易条件都有促进上升的作用。     

我国贸易条件异常波动的内外冲击因素

针对2007年第二季度至2012年期间我国价格贸易条件异常波动的现象,文章利用可变参数状态空间模型,比较分析了相关要素的影响方向和力度。结果表明:(1)国外产出缺口、国际大宗商品价格和人民币升值是影响我国价格贸易条件异常波动的主要原因;(2)比较收入贸易条件的影响因素,国外产出缺口始终处于正向影响,人民币升值具有较强的负向影响,国际大宗商品价格和国内通货膨胀的影响较中性。     

贸易条件与后发国家贸易利益的维护——以中国为例

贸易条件是衡量一国贸易利益得失的重要指标。经济全球化浪潮的出现使得国与国之间的联系日益肾密，但大部分后发国家却面临着贸易条件长期恶化的趋势，从理论上讲这不利于贸易利益的获取及维护。从中国的贸易条件变化和贸易利益分析中发现，贸易条件并不能准确衡量其利益所得。在新的世界分工格局下，坚持比较优势及培育稀缺要素成为后发国家获取和维护贸易利益的重点。     

20世纪20至30年代的中德贸易条件及价格变动趋势分析

中德贸易在中国近代对外贸易中占有十分重要的地位,本文通过对民国中期中德贸易中主要进出口商品的价格指数及其变动的系统量化分析,对中德贸易的综合贸易条件,出口个别贸易条件和进口个别贸易条件分别进行细致的统计和计算。大量的统计数据证明,中德贸易个别贸易条件中出口贸易条件有利于中国的成份居多,而进口贸易条件却在朝着不利于中国的方面发展。两相比较,出口贸易条件指数上升的速度要快于进口贸易条件指数下降的速度,就综合贸易条件而言,还是对中国有利的因素要多一些。     

Export sophistication and the terms of trade of the developing and emerging countries

The question of the terms of trade has not yet been studied by the new empirical literature on the export sophistication, which focuses only on its effect on economic growth. The contribution of this paper is to investigate whether the increase in the export sophistication is terms of trade worsening or improving for the developing and emerging economies. Importantly, we find that the increase in the sophistication of the developing countries’ exports is accompanied by a deterioration of their terms of trade.     

利用外国直接投资与贸易条件分析

通过大量数据说明。中国FDI主要流向劳动力密集型出口部门。这种流向特征一方面导致中国出口消费品的超额供给,另一方面又带动了对资本、技术等密集型产品的进口FDI需求的增长,使中国的贸易条件趋向恶化。要改善中国的贸易条件,应当进一步加强对外资流向的引导,从根本上增加外资流向资本技术密集型部门和服务业的比重,降低流向一般制造业的比重。     

Whither the terms of trade? An elaboration of the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis

Movements in the prices of primary products and manufacturedgoods are analysed using a model that introduces differencesin wage and price determination between primary production andmanufacturing. Wages and prices in primary production are treatedas competitively determined, while prices and wages in manufacturingare determined by mark-up pricing and union-employer bargaining,respectively. The objective is to capture the influence of structuraldifferences between manufacturing and primary production onthe terms of trade between industrialised and developing worldsas discussed in the seminal contributions to the developmentliterature by Raul Prebisch and Hans Singer. The model is estimatedusing price and wage data from the post-World War II period.Support is found for the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis; however,our estimates suggest that, during periods of particularly rapidmanufacturing growth, there have been intervals of net improvementin the terms of trade of primary producers.     

Country terms of trade: trends,unit roots,over-differencing,endogeneity, time dummies,and heterogeneity

The debate about the Prebisch-Singer thesis has focused on primary commodities with some extensions to manufactures. We analyse trends in country terms-of-trade for goods and services rather than those for commodities according to the World Bank income classification. We find that the natural logarithm of the terms of trade for all groups except for the poorest has common unit roots, but none has individual unit roots. As low-income countries have no unit roots over-differencing is inefficient and biases significance levels in first differences against the fall in the terms of trade. For the low-income countries the terms of trade of goods and services are falling at a rate that is significantly negative without and with endogeneity treatment by system GMM. A comprehensive analysis of the effects of time dummies supports the result of falling terms of trade for low-income countries. When all coefficients are country-specific 50% of all low-income countries have falling terms of trade in a simultaneous equation estimation using the SUR method. Food and financial crisis have no effect on the number of countries with falling terms of trade, but (dis-)improve the terms of trade or the significance of the results for a very small number of countries.     

GDP growth in Russia: different capital stock series and the terms of trade

There are different academic assessments of the principal forces behind Russia’s GDP growth. Studies that reconstruct capital stocks using gross fixed capital formation and the perpetual inventory method find that total factor productivity growth has been paramount to GDP growth. On the other hand, capital services datasets that have recently been made available find that capital developments have been instrumental in driving economic growth. We reconstruct a capital stock series for Russia for 1995–2013 and compare the results to two capital services time series using the Solow growth model. We also take into account terms of trade developments that have lent strong support to Russia’s economy. The terms of trade is shown to have been an important factor behind the development of gross fixed capital formation and thus GDP growth.     

《2010通则》项下FOB、CFR、CIF三种贸易术语的比较及选用

国际贸易是不同国家和地区之间商品和劳务的交换活动,贸易术语则是国际贸易发展到一定历史阶段的产物。贸易术语是签订合同的基础,是可以明确国际货物买卖的交货条件和价格构成的专门用语。FOB、CFR、CIF是当今贸易实务中运用最广泛的三种主要贸易术语,所以,引入案例剖析《2010通则》项下三种术语的异同,并在此基础上提出具体的术语选用策略。     

Institutional quality and the effectiveness of aid for trade

Trade policy barriers and high transaction costs hinder developing countries from taking the full advantages of the global trading system. In order to help developing countries overcome the problem, the World Trade Organization (WTO) launched the Aid for Trade (AFT) initiatives in its Ministerial Conference held in Hong Kong in 2005. We examine the effects of AFT inflows on bilateral trade costs facing 133 developing countries while accounting for differences in their location on the contours of various measures of institutional quality. Our results from the estimation of a mixed effects (random-intercept and random-coefficient) model indicate that institutional quality significantly affects the extent to which AFT reduces bilateral trade costs. An important policy implication of our findings is that an economically robust and sustainable reduction in bilateral trade costs facing developing countries requires the presence of both promulgated and effectively functioning institutions such as regulatory power and the rule of law.     

浅析我国石油安全战略体系的构建

石油是一种战略性资源，石油的供给关系到一个国家或地区的经济发展和社会稳定，而石油安全是一个国家能源安全和经济安全的重要组成部分。随着我国社会经济的发展和对环境保护要求的提高，我国能源优质化的加强及需求数量的不断增加．仅靠国内石油产量已远远不能满足需求，我国的石油进口正在迅速增加。随着我国经济和世界经济的联系日益紧密．我国的石油安全问题也日益突显出来。因此，对我国石油能源供求现状和存在的问题进行分析，并结合我国国情提出石油安全战略体系的构建措施具有十分重要的意义。     

Factors affecting trade in services: evidence from panel data

In the course of economic development, nations have typically progressed through stages in which agriculture, then manufacturing and, finally, services predominate. Concerns around the sustainability of manufacturing and goods export-led growth raise the importance of trade in services. In the context of a panel model, controlling for the factors that determine trade in general, we examine the determinants of trade in services in a sample of 46 countries over the decade 2004–2015. We find an ambiguous pattern of effects from institutional quality but strong evidence of the importance of trade in goods for trade in services.     

The distributive impact of terms of trade shocks: The case of the oil price changes in Russia

The halving of oil prices, during a short period between 2014 and 2015, has generated major terms of trade losses for oil exporting countries. This terms of trade shock has economy‐wide effects and significant distributive impacts. This paper, using a macro‐micro simulation model, describes and quantifies the channels of transmission from the drop of oil prices, to changes in welfare distribution at the household level for the case of the Russian Federation. The oil price reduction generates a reverse Dutch disease impacting sectoral employment, factor returns and consumption prices. It causes a contraction of employment and wages in more skill‐intensive (non‐tradable) sectors, and a reduction in consumption prices that is more pronounced for non‐food than for food goods. When these shifts are mapped to changes in incomes at the micro level, all households are affected. Poverty rates increase by 1 to 4 percentage points, depending on the poverty line used. At the US$ 10 a day threshold, 4.1 million additional people fall into poverty. Along the consumption distribution, richer people are affected more than those in the bottom 40%. However, this minor progressive impact may be reversed due to increases in unemployment and cuts in social programmes.