我国主权财富基金的投资选择

21世纪后,全球主权财富基金发展迅速,截止2009年末全球主权财富基金管理的资产规模已高达3.8万亿美元。主权财富基金作为国际金融市场中一支新型的投资力量,对世界和国际金融市场产生了巨大的影响,引起国际社会的广泛关注。我国主权财富基金——中投公司由于成立不久,缺乏海外投资经验,同时还面临西方发达国家对其投资的限制。在这样的背景下,研究我国主权财富基金投资选择具有很强的实际意义。本文在分析我国主权财富基金发展现状基础上,综合考虑我国主权财富基金投资选择的影响因素,提出我国主权财富基金投资选择策略。     

主权财富基金的发展与国家权力建设

当前,主权财富基金快速发展,已成为国际金融市场上的一支重要力量。而主权财富基金由国家拥有和控制,其投资行为有时可能会反映政府的政治选择,这必然影响到国际体系中政治与经济的互动。这使主权财富基金逐渐成为国家权力要素的重要组成部分,增加了国家运用权力的经济手段。但在大国仍然是国际关系格局的主导者,主权财富基金自身实力还比较弱的现实面前,主权财富基金对国际体系中权力分配的影响仍十分有限。     

亚洲主权财富基金探析

主权财富基金的数量和规模迅速增长以及投资活动日益活跃,预示着崭新的全球金融结构正在形成,亚洲主权财富基金作为这场变革的主力军备受关注.本文在对亚洲主权财富基金的兴起原因、发展现状以及所处国际环境进行分析的基础上,对其未来的发展提出建议.     

俄罗斯主权财富基金管理评析

近年来,全球范围内主权财富基金规模迅速扩大.目前,在美国次贷危机的大背景下,主权基金在金融领域的重要性更是日益提高.随着经济快速发展和外症储备的不断增加,中俄两国都面对如何管理多余的外汇储备问题,同时考虑到未来在新一轮国际投资热潮中,中俄都面临着巨大的投资机遇、可能的风险以及合作的空间,因此本文拟对俄罗斯主权基金建立以来的发展进程及管理情况作出评介,以期对中国主权基金的管理运作提供参考借鉴,并为以后两国开展金融合作做一基础研究.     

俄罗斯主权财富基金管理评析

近年来,全球范围内主权财富基金规模迅速扩大.目前,在美国次贷危机的大背景下,主权基金在金融领域的重要性更是日益提高.随着经济快速发展和外汇储备的不断增加,中俄两国都面对如何管理多余的外汇储备问题,同时考虑到未来在新一轮国际投资热潮中,中俄都面临着巨大的投资机遇、可能的风险以及合作的空间,因此本文拟对俄罗斯主权基金建立以来的发展进程及管理情况作出评介,以期对中国主权基金的管理运作提供参考借鉴,并为以后两国开展金融合作做一基础研究.     

主权财富基金的“野心”

主权财富基金（SWF）主要是政府设立的、管理其储蓄盈余的投资机构，最早于1950年代出现。当时挪威、科威特、新加坡等国正在探索保护自身免受汇率波动影响的新途径，因此主权财富基金应运而生。SWF在过去十年间总体规模激增，现在其所受的关注也骤增。SWF管理的资产高达3．6万亿美元，所以它们已成为一个举足轻重的投资工具，对冲基金与私募基金加起来也不及他们重要。     

主权财富基金的新型“国家资本主义”性质探析

20世纪80年代以来的全球经济自由市场时代正在结束,取而代之的是新型"国家资本主义"经济的兴起。主权财富基金作为一种管理国家储备的国有投资实体,它们既是独立的市场主体,又是国家利益的载体,因而是新型"国家资本主义"的最新表现形式。本文在分析新型"国家资本主义"经济的基础上,从所有权归属、设立方式与规模、投资领域以及透明度等方面论证了主权财富基金的新型"国家资本主义"性质,比较研究了俄罗斯、中国以及其他国家主权财富基金运作的"二重性",深入分析了主权财富基金性质和运作的二重性对新兴经济体、发达国家以及世界经济发展存在的重大弊端。     

论全球主权财富基金兴起的原因

主权财富基金的产生和发展与世界经济形势紧密相关,伴随着石油价格的大幅攀升,全球产业结构的深刻调整以及金融全球化的不断深入,特别是在全球经济失衡加剧的情况下,主权财富基金快速发展,基金数量不断增多,资产规模持续扩大。在以欧美国家为主导并奉行自由经济的世界市场,具有政府背景的主权财富基金将对国际资本市场、全球金融体系和世界经济格局产生深远影响。     

主权财富基金对国际金融影响的辨析

近年来，主权财富基金资产规模快速扩张，数量不断上升。该文针对西方社会担忧，即认为在现有的增长速度下，主权财富基金可能会给国际金融市场造成扰动和破坏，进行了学术辨析。文章认为：主权财富基金的快速扩张是与全球性的经济失衡相关联，但其投资目的并非商业利益让位于政治与战略动机。相反是国际金融市场中的稳定力量，西方国家加强对其监管有违公平原则，相反对冲基金有更多的扰动性。     

中投公司：渐渐清晰的方向

目前，随着中投公司成立，中国正式加入了主权财富基金俱乐部。所谓主权财富基金，是指那些由巨额外汇盈余或石油美元提供资金、被出资国有效控制的投资基金。它的产生最早可追溯到上世纪50年代，目前全球已有20多个国家和地区设立了主权财富基金。美国财政部估计，全球主权财富基金管理的总资产已达1．5万亿至2．5万亿美元，现仍在快速增长。     

关于订约环境对公司治理影响的实证分析——来自亚洲四地区的经验数据研究

公司治理的最终表现往往是多种内外因素共同作用而产生的结果。本文重点考察了订约环境即包括一国对股东保护立法和实施的总体水平,公司的资产状况,公司的成长机会以及公司规模对公司治理的影响状况,并且基于亚洲四地区的经验数据,对以上因素进行了回归分析。最后得出,在订约环境中,宏观的法律的规范、完备和高效实施相较于其他微观的因素起到了更加重要的作用。     

美国对主权基金投资银行业的法律监管

资金总量约在2万亿至3万亿美元的主权基金对美国银行业具有巨大吸引力。尽管出现一些松动的迹象,美国对主权基金投资银行业的法律监管依旧严格。中国应当采取相应的对策以确保中国的主权基金在投资美国银行业时享受合情、合法、合理的待遇。     

GOVERNANCE INSTITUTIONS AND PRIVATE INVESTMENT: AN APPLICATION TO THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

This paper addresses the issue of the low level of private investment in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, with special emphasis on the role of governance. Based on the existing published reports, we categorize what types of governance institutions are more detrimental to entrepreneurial investments. We then estimate a simultaneous model of private investment and governance quality where economic policies concurrently explain both variables. Our empirical results show that governance plays a significant role in private investment decisions. This result is particularly true in the case of “administrative quality” in the form of control of corruption, bureaucratic quality, investment‐friendly profile of administration, law and order, as well as for “political stability.” Evidence in favor of “public accountability” is also found. Our estimations also stress that structural reforms like financial development, trade openness, and human development affect private‐investment decisions directly, and/or through their positive effect on governance.     

Indonesian politics in 2012: coalitions,accountability and the future of democracy

Indonesia is a successful but flawed democracy: while the electoral process has worked well, the quality of democratic governance is less encouraging. Missing from the equation between elections and democracy is political accountability. Parties’ obsession with coalition building as a route to political power has made it difficult for voters to attribute success or failure to elected officials. Coalition government allows politicians to send contradictory messages, and in 2012 religious minorities – which are neither banned nor protected – have paid a heavy price for the lack of accountability and leadership. In Jakarta an outsider, Joko Widodo, won the gubernatorial election despite facing an incumbent backed by a broad coalition. His victory illustrates that coalition building does not guarantee success, and that the electorate is mature enough not to be swayed by appeals to religious and ethnic sentiment. This gives heart to those hoping to strengthen democracy and democratic values in Indonesia.     

How Has Rural Tax Reform Affected Farmers and Local Governance in China？

Using nationally representative data, the present paper examines the impact of China's ongoing rural tax reform on farmers. The difficulties in further local governance restructuring are also discussed. It is argued that the issues associated with rural taxation and local governance in China result from inherent tension between an increasingly liberalized economic system and a still centralized political system. Although rural tax reform has helped to reduce farmers' tax burdens in the short term, the establishment of an effective local governance regime requires coordinated reforms to downsize local bureaucracy by providing social security for laid-off cadres, to strengthen local accountability by granting higher local formal tax autonomy, and to promote meaningful participation by expanding local democracy.     

On Taxation,Political Accountability and Foreign Aid: Empirics to a Celebrated Literature

The Eubank findings on taxation, political accountability and foreign aid have had an important influence on academic and policymaking debates. Eubank has warned that his findings should not be generalised across Africa until they are backed by robust empirical evidence. This paper puts some empirical structure to the celebrated literature. The empirical evidence which is based on data from 53 African countries for the period 1996‐2010 broadly confirms the Somaliland‐based Eubank hypothesis that in the absence of foreign aid, the dependence of government on local tax revenues provides the leverage for better political governance.     

External adjustment

Gross stocks of foreign assets have increased rapidly relative to national outputs since 1990, and the short-run capital gains and losses on those assets can amount to significant fractions of GDP. These fluctuations in asset values render the national income and product account measure of the current account balance increasingly inadequate as a summary of the change in a country's net foreign assets. Nonetheless, unusually large current account imbalances, especially deficits, should remain high on policymakers' list of concerns, even, for the richer and less credit-constrained countries. Extreme imbalances signal the need for large and perhaps abrupt real exchange rate changes in the future, changes that might have undesired political and financial consequences given the incompleteness of domestic and international asset markets. Furthermore, of the two sources of the change in net foreign assets—the current account and the capital gain on the net foreign asset position—the former is better understood and more amenable to policy influence. Systematic government attempts to manipulate international asset values in order to change the net foreign asset position could have a destabilizing effect on market expectations. JEL no. F21, F32, F36, F41     

Impact of institutional determinants on income inequalities in Indonesia during the Era Reformasi

This article examines the links between a selected group of institutional factors and income inequalities. The Indonesian transformation process, referred to as the Era Reformasi, which started in 1999, was a substantial institutional change in the social, political, and economic sphere that could have impacted income inequalities. We conducted an analysis based on Engle and Granger’s (1987) cointegration technique and the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) model, which allowed us to assess the short-run and long-run links, as well as causal relationships between variables. Particular attention was paid to governance indicators and economic freedom as factors that influence other economic and political institutions. The results show that improvements in institutional factors, namely economic freedom, corruption control, government effectiveness, regulation quality, and voice and accountability, significantly reduced income inequalities during the Era Reformasi in Indonesia.     

The Chinese governance system: Its strengths and weaknesses in a comparative development perspective

This is an overview paper focusing on the organizational aspects of the Chinese governance system and their relation to development. Compared to other developing countries like India, it has special positive features of career incentives promoting growth at the local level, the ability to take long-term decisions relatively quickly, and a unique blend of political centralization and decentralization of economic power and responsibility, that is conducive to central guidance and local business development. On the other hand, with a lack of sufficient downward (as opposed to upward) accountability and absence of institutionalized systems of scrutiny and challenge from below, mistakes or abuse of power are more difficult to check and correct quickly, political loyalty may often get a premium over performance at the upper levels, and there are insufficient checks on collusion between business and officials. The over-all organizational system is prone to over-reaction in times of crisis and thus only weakly resilient compared to systems where information flows from below are less controlled or choked.