Prices and factor demand in an endogenized input–output model

This paper combines factor demand functions (for intermediate input and labour) and price equations (derived from a Generalized Leontief cost function) with the traditional input–output price model. The cost functions determine factor demands for materials and labour as well as output prices at given input prices. At the second level of aggregation, the intermediate demand as a single input is split proportional to the elements in the column of the technical coefficients matrix. The emphasis in this endogenization of technical coefficients is on two features. First, the repercussion of output on input prices, and, second, the link between the econometric model for the supply side and the input–output demand model.     

IMPLICIT ELASTICITIES AND PRICE EFFECTS: AN UPDATED PROCEDURE

Based on the general procedure described by Casler [(2011) Coefficient Change, Price Effects, and Implicit Elasticities: Estimating Microeconomic Determinants over Two Time Periods. Economic Systems Research, 23, 153–174], this paper presents an updated approach to the estimation of input coefficient changes as functions of changing prices. The procedure makes direct use of relationships that emerge from the model of cost minimization subject to producing a desired level of output. Based on an initial specification of constant cross-price derivatives, the imposition of adding up and symmetry conditions allows the actual price and coefficient changes that occur between periods to identify implicit own and cross-price derivatives and corresponding elasticities, using data for only two time periods. With this updated approach, the calculation of derivatives is far simpler and leads to far more accurate measures of price-induced input–output coefficient changes than the original version.     

A deterministic profit attribution model: The postal service,a case study

This paper derives a positive model relating changes in profitability to output levels, price, input quantities, and costs. The model involves decomposition of profit changes to define contributions associated with changes in the product market and production input variables. It can be derived from basic profit concepts without additional assumptions regarding the organization's behavioral decisions or about the shapes of the demand or production functions. It therefore avoids all normative underpinnings and is based strictly on measurable changes in the environment. The model is applied to results obtained from the United States Postal Service income statement. Changes in the Service's productivity and its components (e.g., labor, materials, and capital) are fully reconciled in an accounting sense with reported changes in net income. This reconciliation permits the identification of the sources of net income change.     

Identification and stochastic specification in Rosen's hedonic price model

The use of an explicitly specified utility function to derive the inverse demand functions in S. Rosen's hedonic price model provides considerable insight into the correct stochastic specification of the model. It turns out that except in special cases, the inverse demand equations are nonlinear in parameters and cannot be formulated conveniently as regression models. Moreover, the inverse demand functions and the hedonic price function must be estimated simultaneously to obtain consistent estimates of the parameters of these functions. A tractable estimation technique is described. It is desirable to derive the inverse demand functions from a utility specification that is not a strongly separable function of houses' attributes since strong separability implies the existence of deterministic relations among incomes, prices, and observed housing attributes that may fail to hold in applications. Finally, it is shown that the use of an explicitly specified utility function does not guarantee identification of the parameters of Rosen's model.     

Cost-based decision rules for output,quality, and price

The present paper develops a theoretical model to address the relationship between a firm's pricing policy and its cost of increasing product quality. The model expresses both firm costs and firm revenues as functions of the quantity of a firm's output and overall product quality, where quality is expressed as quantity times quality per unit. The model starts with a generic good that measures output, and models quality as priced quality enhancement for each unit of the generic good. The model leads to decision rules by which the price of quality is a mark-up over the marginal cost of increasing product quality. The relationship between the price of quality and revenues from increasing output is also determined, and is conditioned by the sign and magnitude of the elasticity of demand for quality.     

To RAS or not to RAS? What is the difference in outcomes in multi-regional input–output models?

The global resource accounting model (GRAM), which is based on OECD input–output and bilateral trade data, is a multi-regional input–output model covering 53 countries and 2 regions. What differentiates GRAM from other state-of-the-art models in this field is that it does not use a matrix balancing technique, such as RAS, after the initial construction of the global intermediate coefficient and final demand matrices. Instead, it reproduces prescribed intermediate and final demand, and determines value added residually. This choice was made to alter the original data as little as possible and keep the calculations traceable. This simpler solution technique might, however, yield different results. This paper aims at identifying the difference between the current solution of GRAM and the solution of a RASed version of GRAM, thus contributing to the assessment of currently used methodologies in this research field. The short conclusion is that, even though some differences during the calculations are present, the calculated output (production) matrix does not differ substantially. The results show that larger differences are brought about by poor assumptions regarding missing or conflicting data rather than by applying or not applying a RAS procedure to the constructed global matrices.     

Decomposition of Structural Change into Technology and Price Components: Turkey, 1973–85

The purpose of this paper is to report on an approach to the analysis of intertemporal change in input–output tables in terms of the components of this change with time. We define two alternative forms of decomposition: additive and multiplica tive. The multiplicative form is found to have advantages over the additive form: it is not affected by the choice of price-adjusting mechanism and it enables us to define summary measures in the line of, for example, direct backward linkages. We apply the methodo logy to input–output tables for Turkey for 1973 and 1985, and compute the components of total change for 1973–85. We illustrate that, in economies where price changes across industries vary to a great extent, studying structural change first requires the removal of the relative price effects. Otherwise, misleading conclusions regarding the real or tech nological change are very likely.     

An interregional policy model for energy-economic-environmental interactions

This article deals with conflicts between energy, pollution and economic issues in an interregional framework. On the basis of an interregional input output model extended with pollution and energy sectors a policy analysis aiming at finding compromise solutions forconflicting objectives is carried out. The rigid input output structure is adjusted by incorporating price effects of inputs via demand relationships based on a translog price possibility frontier. The analysis is illustrated by means of some empirical applications to the Dutch economy.     

Hedonic Price Models for Dynamic Markets*

The price of a product depends on its characteristics and will vary in dynamic markets. The model describes a processing firm that bids in an auction for a heterogeneous and perishable input. The reduced form of this model is estimated as an expanded random parameter model that combines a nonlinear hedonic bid function and inverse input demand functions for characteristics. The model was estimated by using 289,405 transactions from the Icelandic fish auctions. Total catch and gut ratio were the main determinants of marginal prices of characteristics, while the price of cod mainly depended on size, gutting and storage.     

A two-part incentive scheme to implement productive efficiency over time

Under rate-of-return regulation the firm is not induced to minimize cost. All the incentive regulatory schemes thus far suggested in the literature have the desirable feature of inducing the firm to do so, but they either require the regulator to have full information about demand or take a number of periods to induce the firm to converge to the optimal output level. Hence they do not work well in the dynamic situation where demand and/or cost changes. In this paper a two-part negative price incentive scheme is suggested whereby the regulator will implement the subsidy scheme only if the firm charges a price higher than its unit expenditure. This scheme (1) requires limited information for implementation; (2) induces the firm to minimize costs; and (3) under certain situations leads to optimal behavior in one period. More importantly, it will continue to have the above features over time.     

The Instability of the Money Demand Function: An I(2) Interpretation

Some studies have suggested that although money and prices appear to be I(2) processes, real money balances are I(1) and this transformation preserves an important long-run relationship between money and prices. In this paper we present evidence indicating that the success of such a nominal-to-real transformation depends upon the particular monetary aggregate under consideration. It turns out that imposing long-run price homogeneity does not remove all I(2) components from a model of aggregate broad UK M4, but it does prove successful in the case of sectoral components of M4. Since recent research on money demand functions finds more stable relationships between sectoral components of M4 and aggregate demand, our analysis seems to point to a direct link between the existence of I(2) components and the stability of different money demand functions.     

A POST-KEYNESIAN AGE MODEL TO FORECAST ENERGY DEMAND IN SPAIN

This paper develops an extended input–output model for the estimation of energy demand and related issues. It is built on the last Spanish Symmetric Input–Output Table (IOT, 2005). It has been tested for the period 2005–2008 and used for forecasting energy demand for the years 2009–2012 under different economic scenarios. The model shares some traits of the computable and applied general equilibrium models where quantity and price systems are interwoven. The differences lie in the theories explaining output and prices. Our quantity system is based on Keynes’ principle of effective demand (broad energy multipliers are derived). The price system is based on the classical (Sraffian) theory of prices of production, akin to post-Keynesian full-cost prices. The general price system can be manipulated to account for the specificities of energy prices. Historical trends of energy coefficients are computed by extrapolation of past IOTs and calibration.     

Corporate hedging and input price risk

Input price variability is an important source of risk for corporations that process raw commodities. Models of optimal input hedging are developed in this paper based on the maximization of managerial expected utility. The relationship between hedging strategies and output decisions is examined to assess the impact of the ability to set output prices on futures market participation. As a firm's ability to set output prices diminishes in the short run, input futures positions increase although the optimal hedge ratio may either increase or decrease. For a perfectly competitive firm, however, shifts in output price caused by input price changes provide a natural cash market hedge of input price risk and reduce the firm's optimal input futures position.     

Diversity Analysis of Structural Change Based on the Canadian Input–Output Tables

This article presents some of the results of a study conducted at Statistics Canada that involved the analysis of the variability through time of input–output structures. All structures have been analyzed in current and constant prices over the period 1961–84, but only the results about the industries' input structures in current prices are reported in this article. Structural changes are assessed over time horizons of 1, 2 and 5 years, using the Kullback, cross-entropy index formula. Structural changes in the current prices input structure are decomposed into a price and a quantity component, following a new decomposition of the entropy formula. It is shown from that decomposition that the traditional analysis of the variability of constant prices input–output structures may be quite misleading. The authors have found that structural changes generally follow a smooth path through time and tend to be cumulative in the long run, with some cyclical fluctuations in the short term. Some of the structural changes appear to be due to statistical events (establishment moves across industries, changes in methodologies, etc.) rather than reflecting real phenomena. The quantity component of structural change appears to be more important than the price component in almost all time periods and time spans, except when the Canadian economy was subjected to important price shocks during the 1970s.     

A Bayesian approach to imposing curvature on distance functions

The estimated parameters of output distance functions frequently violate the monotonicity, quasi-convexity and convexity constraints implied by economic theory, leading to estimated elasticities and shadow prices that are incorrectly signed, and ultimately to perverse conclusions concerning the effects of input and output changes on productivity growth and relative efficiency levels. We show how a Bayesian approach can be used to impose these constraints on the parameters of a translog output distance function. Implementing the approach involves the use of a Gibbs sampler with data augmentation. A Metropolis–Hastings algorithm is also used within the Gibbs to simulate observations from truncated pdfs. Our methods are developed for the case where panel data is available and technical inefficiency effects are assumed to be time-invariant. Two models—a fixed effects model and a random effects model—are developed and applied to panel data on 17 European railways. We observe significant changes in estimated elasticities and shadow price ratios when regularity restrictions are imposed.     

Introducing the supply side into the LBS Model

This Briefing Paper describes a new version of the London Business School model, which incorporates our most recent research on the supply side. The changes reflect the desire to improve the specification of the supply-side of the model, and to capture the effects of taxes on the incentives to save, invest and to work, while still retaining the basic features of the income-expenditure framework. The main features of the new model are: - Gross domestic product is determined as the sum of the outputs of five sectors. Previously GDP was determined by the demand side as the sum of the expenditure components. - Domestic demand for the output of the private sector depends on domestic absorption and on the price of this output relative to import prices. Overseas demand for exports depends on world economic activity and on the price of exports relative to the world price of exports. - Supply depends on the capital stock, real unit labour costs and real raw material prices. In the short run, input prices are allowed to affect the mix between goods which are exported and those which are supplied to the domestic market. In the long run, however, the mix depends only on the price of exports relative to the price of domestically supplied goods (i.e., relative profitability). - In the short run, disequilibrium in the goods market is reflected in adjustments to prices, inventories and the external balance. - Since gross domestic product is determined by summing the output of each sector, output decisions are reconciled with expenditure decisions by making imports the difference between final expenditure and aggregate supply. - In the long run, increases in government expenditure crowd out private expenditure, but the effect takes several years to come through. - A cut in corporation taxes which is not financed by higher taxes elsewhere boosts the supply side by raising investment and the capital stock, but not by enough to raise revenues sufficiently to pay for the tax cut. Private sector saving increases but not by enough to fund higher public sector borrowing, so the current account goes into deficit. - In the short run, both supply and demand factors influence economic activity; in the long run, the path of the economy depends only on population growth, capital accumulation and technical progress.     

Irrelevance of the soft budget constraint for the shortage phenomenon

Kornai's thesis that shortage results from demand expansions bred by the soft budget constraint, derives from his implicit assumption that price regimes of input and output firms are different. Since any firm is both an input and an output firm, which discards the assumption as logically untenable, excess demand can only turn up because of lower than contracted inputs of labor and management that are not offset by an adequate downward adjustment of earnings. Expansions of demand that appear to be autonomous, are incited by uncertain deliveries of inputs, that is, by inefficiency (of output firms) as well. A by far the largest part of excess demand can be explained by state preferences for fast growth. As planners are more successful in generating investment, and the ensuing consumer, demand than in expanding production, shortage is inevitable regardless of the character of the firms' budget constraints.     

The supply multiplier with a self-employed private sector

Conclusion By modelling the private sector on the basis of self-employment, rather than the wage employment assumed by Hare (1987), we are able to proceed without making strong restrictions on functional forms. Our main conclusion is that the supply multiplier equationis affected by the inclusion of the private sector. The immediate effect of an increase in state sector goods purchases by the government is that there is an equal reduction in the amount of state sector goods available for the household sector. This is assumed to affect household demand for private sector output and household supply of labour to the private sector (as well as affecting household labour to the state sector, as in the Barro-Grossman model). The change in labour supply to the private sector affects the supply of goods by the private sector. The net result is that an excess demand (or supply) is created for private sector output and so the price of this output rises (or falls). In general, a change in private sector price leads to a change in state sector labour supply and output, a result, which, by definition, does not occur if the private sector is not included in the model. Thus, the supply multiplier in general takes a different value from that found by Barro and Grossman.Given that the rate of change of labour supply to the state sector with respect to the price of the private sector good is negative we obtain the following conclusion. (a) If a marginal decrease in the availability of state output results in an excess supply of private sector output (before price changes), the supply multiplier is not as negative as in the Barro-Grossman model and may even be zero or positive. (b) If, however, an excess demand for private sector output is created, the supply multiplier is actually more negative than in the Barro-Grossman model. Should, instead, the rate of change of labour supply to the state sector with respect to the price of the private sector good be positive these conclusions are reversed, in the sense that the terms excess supply in (a) and excess demand in (b) are interchanged.(The views expressed in this paper should not necessarily be attributed to the Department of Trade and Industry.) We would like to thank an anonymous reference for helpful comments, particularly in pointing out an inconsistency in our treatment of the individual and the aggregate behaviour of households in an earlier version of the paper.     

Oil prices,stock returns,and exchange rates: Empirical evidence from China and the United States

Employing the diagonal BEKK model as well as the dynamic impulse response functions, this study investigates the time-varying trilateral relationships among real oil prices, exchange rate changes, and stock market returns in China and the U.S. from February 1991 to December 2015. We highlight several key observations: (i) oil prices respond positively and significantly to aggregate demand shocks; (ii) positive oil supply shocks adversely and significantly affect the Chinese stock market; (iii) oil price shocks persistently and significantly impact the trade-weighted US dollar index negatively; (iv) the US and China stock markets correlate positively just as the dollar index and the exchange rate does; (v) a significant parallel inverse relation exists between the US stock market and the dollar and between the China stock market and the exchange rate; and (vi) the Chinese stock market is more volatile and responsive to aggregate demand and oil price shocks than the US stock market in recent years.     

Technological Choices and Prices,and Their Implications for the US Economy, 1963–2000

This paper examines the influence of techological change and changing factor prices in the US economy on prices and incomes between 1967 and 2000. Dynamic input–output physical, price and income models provide the conceptual framework for the analysis. The investigation is focused on sectoral price changes, the distribution of income and outlays between capital and labor, and the changing real purchasing power of capital and labor. One major conclusion is that the shares of national income earned by labor and capital have remained relatively constant over the entire period due to offsetting changes which are explicitly identified. At the same time, labor's purchasing power has not increased as much as that of capital.