Risk amplification: HIV in migrant communities

The demography of both urban and rural South Africa is shaped by migration, with three unique patterns: labour-sending, labour-receiving and rural areas. This article explores the relationship between HIV risk and migration in South Africa. It identifies the urban informal settlements common in labour-receiving areas as key magnifiers of HIV risk, increasing the vulnerability of migrant workers in these townships. It examines the urban informal settlement, a unique social environment with distinctly high-risk behaviour dynamics, as a focal determinant of HIV. It proposes this framework as an extension of the migration–HIV dialectic beyond the traditionally unidimensional approach, to encompass a more contextualised discussion. This methodology, which uses the environment as an entry point to understanding behaviour and emphasises the importance of addressing the HIV–migration issue within a broader development perspective, has important implications for HIV programming in South Africa.     

Thinking regionally: Aviation and development implications in the Karoo region,South Africa

This study focuses on regional economic development in South Africa, across provincial political jurisdictions. The article argues that remote hinterlands can be more usefully understood as forming an integrated whole, rather than functioning as the poor rural cousins of their provincial metropoles. This article considers three propositions: that key transport projects (such as airports) may unlock regional development; that this may stimulate regional spatial integration; and that this may spur the South African government to address its weak regional planning system. All three propositions are speculative, drawn from the international literature, but they contribute to an argument for greater spatial coherence in South African planning in rural regions. The argument is illustrated with reference to the Karoo region of South Africa, and the potential of a new airport to impact on regional economic dynamics. Furthermore, the article argues that such impacts will require new regional planning systems, which are currently absent from the South African political system.     

The determinants of rural and urban household poverty in the North West province of South Africa

Based on standard poverty measures, the extent of poverty in the North West province is on average worse than in South Africa. For instance, the poverty gap ratio for North West is twice that of the South African average, and the FGT index is three times as high. This article therefore aims to identify the determinants of rural and urban poverty in the North West province of South Africa. Using data gathered from a survey of 593 black households across the province, probit model estimates suggest that the major significant determinants of household poverty in both rural and urban areas are education and household size. A difference between rural and urban poverty is, first, that extra female adults in a rural household raise the probability of poverty. Secondly, having a migrant (out) worker as head of the household in rural areas lowers the probability of poverty, while this does not apply to urban households. A sensitivity analysis for the robustness of the results over a range of poverty lines reveals that the impact of education is much stronger for poorer households than for more wealthy households.     

The contribution of social accounting matrices to economic enquiry in South Africa: A review∗

In 1986 the first social accounting matrix (SAM) for South Africa was published. Subsequent publications are reviewed in which this SAM was used in the exploration of economic structure and policies, particularly as these relate to income and expenditure patterns and distribution. The rapidly expanding international literature on the subject of SAMs is considered. Potential further applications and the requirements for drawing up a revised and updated SAM for South Africa are investigated.     

The impact of tourism on poverty in South Africa

This paper evaluates the potential impact of tourism on poverty in South Africa on the basis of recent survey data on international tourism spending patterns. It looks at three scenarios, using an applied general equilibrium model. The main finding is that the poor benefit very little in the short term from additional tourism income. A further finding is that domestic and international tourist expenditure affect the economy differently; both markets are therefore important. In essence, the research confirms that tourism receipts can be used as a tool to alleviate poverty, but in South Africa this must be supported by policies that focus on the labour market and human resource development.     

An investigation into food-away-from-home consumption in South Africa

Food policy that ignores food-away-from-home (FAFH) in a developing country like South Africa will be misleading given changes in demand for food over time. This study contributes to our understanding of the factors that influence the demand for FAFH in South Africa. Using panel data from the Income and Expenditure Survey, this study analyses the effects of income and socio-demographic variables on FAFH expenditure using a double-hurdle model. The results show that small-sized households headed by younger white females/males and living in an urban settlement are most likely to purchase FAFH while male-headed households spend more than female-headed households. Furthermore, income of the household head is an important determinant of household FAFH expenditures. The income elasticity of expenditure on FAFH is inelastic and a normal good. The small size of the participation elasticities means that growth in the FAFH sector will be driven by households with existing expenditure.     

The impacts of tourism investment on rural communities: Three case studies in South Africa

Significant research, both locally and internationally, has been undertaken on tourism development and its impacts on the empowerment of rural communities. This article analyses the extent to which three tourism projects in South Africa, namely the Makuleke tourism initiative, Umngazi River Bungalows and the commercialisation of Manyeleti Game Reserve, have improved the livelihoods of rural communities and contributed to rural economic development. The projects are analysed in terms of both their economic and non-economic benefits, as well as their contribution towards the attainment of certain key policy objectives of the South African government.     

Constructing migration: Infrastructure,poverty and development in KwaZulu‐Natal

Migration and population movement are probably the most neglected of the significant dynamics behind rural poverty in South Africa. Little is known about how people move from place to place, and much of what we thought we knew may be incorrect. In KwaZulu‐Natal job search is no longer the single dominating reason given for migration. Instead, infrastructure ties with it for first place today, with land close behind. The first article in this two‐part report notes that as many as two thirds of the province's disadvantaged families have broken away from their communities of origin and moved at least once during their lifetimes. Perhaps three million have migrated in the last fifteen years. A second unexpected finding is the predominance of rural‐to‐rural migration. Three quarters of all moves recorded were rural to rural, with many orientated towards advantaged rural areas around small towns and secondary cities. Results show how streams are channelled towards poverty or opportunity, and argue for a review of prevailing concepts of rural‐urban relations which structure delivery efforts. The second article, to follow later, notes that recorded income levels are now higher in some rural destination areas than in the urban shack communities that accommodate rural‐to‐urban migrants. Results of various studies presented show how access to information affects migration patterns, and the article also explores the role of infrastructure as a determining force in the regional distribution of population and as a factor in people's own bootstrap anti‐poverty efforts.     

Improved cookstoves in Africa: Explaining adoption patterns

This article uses the case of 18 projects in 14 African countries to explore the adoption patterns of improved cookstoves and the factors that influence these patterns. Our results show that there is variation in the rate of adoption between countries and amongst rural and urban households. The combined effect of moderately good gross domestic product per capita, history of improved cookstove project implementation and adequate institutional support suggests that consumers in South Africa, Senegal and Lesotho tend to be more aware of the benefits of improved cookstoves and better able to afford them than consumers in countries such as Mali, Malawi and Mozambique. Within the countries, rural households seem to be less aware and capable of affording the stoves compared to urban consumers. These differences are a result of varying levels of income and literacy. The low literacy levels mean rural and mostly elderly individuals are less knowledgeable and appreciative of the benefits offered by improved cookstoves.     

COST AND QUALITY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS FOR HOME COMMUNITY-BASED CARE SERVICES TO ORPHANS AND VULNERABLE CHILDREN

The encouragement of care of orphans and vulnerable children by non-profit organisations (NPOs) is a major policy response to the HIV and AIDS epidemic in South Africa. The purpose of this article is to present a quality–cost model with five performance indicators for quality and two for costs and to test these against actual performance using data collected from nine rural and urban organisations in 2004 and 2005. Six NPOs had acceptable cost but all had unacceptable quality scores; three had unacceptable cost and unacceptable quality scores. Each rural caregiver had many more orphans and vulnerable children beneficiaries than their urban counterparts but made fewer total visits. As a result, urban beneficiaries received, on average, 3.5 times more visits than their rural counterparts. The results suggest the need for different performance indicators and expectations for rural and urban NPOs and that monitoring and evaluation using the model could improve horne community-based care services.     

HIV/AIDS AND POVERTY IN SOUTH AFRICA: A BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF SELECTION MODELS WITH CORRELATED FIXED‐EFFECTS

In this paper, we estimate the causal impact of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) on monetary poverty using a panel database from South Africa. We treat endogeneity and selection problems associated with HIV/AIDS by a selection model that includes correlated fixed effects both in the level and in the participation equations, which are estimated simultaneously via original Bayesian methods. We model the consequences of the illness on both labour income and income transfers, and disentangle between urban and rural households. While no significant impact of HIV/AIDS on labour income is found because of households' recomposition, we find a substantial fall in received transfers among rural population and a dramatic increase in chronic poverty.     

Expenditure patterns and elasticities of rural households sampled in two communal areas of KwaZulu-Natal

Expenditure patterns among a sample of 99 rural households in two communal districts in KwaZulu-Natal were investigated to determine the potential impact of a widespread income shock on household expenditure. The results showed expenditure elasticities of close to unity for food. Low elasticities were found for staple foods. Elasticities for meat, meat products and poultry were close to unity, while horticultural products showed the greatest potential for demand growth within the food category. Of the statistically significant commodity categories, expenditure elasticities for durables, housing and transport were more than double those estimated for the aggregate food category. For consumer items, the district expenditure elasticities were estimated to be 0,76 and 0,71, while expenditure on social obligations would not increase with rural incomes. Wealthier households (the top expenditure decile) have a greater propensity for increased expenditure on transport, while poorer households show a greater propensity for increased expenditure on housing and durables. Although agriculture has the potential to generate widespread growth in rural incomes, the preference for manufactured goods casts some doubt on the strength of consumption multipliers for locally produced farm and non-farm goods in rural KwaZulu-Natal.     

Structure of Sectoral Decomposition of Aggregate Poverty Changes in Cameroon

Abstract: This paper reviews theoretical frameworks for sectoral decomposition and assesses the within‐ and between‐sector contributions to changes in aggregate poverty in Cameroon informed by the Shapley Value decomposition rule. Between 1984 and 1996 poverty remained a rural phenomenon in Cameroon. It became more widespread, deeper and severer in both rural and urban areas, but more so in urban than rural areas. While the within‐sector effects disproportionately accounted for the increase in poverty in the period 1984–96, the between‐sector contributions in both rural and semi‐urban areas played a mitigating role on the worse effects of the increase in poverty. These findings infer the potential positive feedback effects of migration such as remittances, and/or increases in rural consumption expenditure in the face of rural underemployment, as effective strategies used by migrants to lift their families and villages out of the worse effects of poverty. The implication of this interpretation is that decision‐makers need to better understand the factors that push or pull potential migrants. Rural–urban mobility could, therefore, be viewed as a strategy used by households to moderate the worse effects of poverty and a vector of shared growth. The implications for public policy, in terms of open unemployment and associated social and insecurity problems at the receiving end, point to the wisdom of addressing the push‐factors via targeting more in favour of rural areas.     

Infant industry characteristics and decentralisation policy in South Africa∗

The policy of decentralisation of industry in South Africa is effected through a system of incentives and subsidies designed towards shifting resources from the urban areas to the rural areas. This paper examines this policy in the light of the infant industry argument for protection and its economic efficacy. In particular, the analysis is applied to a comparison of manufacturing industry in the Black States and in the rest of South Africa. Furthermore, the relationship between estimated differential subsidy rates granted to a sample of decentralised firms is examined in terms of their differential infant industry characteristics and capital intensity.     

民生支出对城乡居民消费的影响及解释——基于省级动态面板数据的分析

本文采用1978-2010年省级数据,运用动态面板模型考察了政府民生支出对东、中、西部地区城乡居民消费的影响,研究表明改革开放以来民生支出对我国居民消费具有明显的挤入作用,但其政策效应存在着的地区和城乡差异。造成这种差异的原因在于,我国的经济体制改革使得城乡居民具有明显的预防性储蓄动机,其中支出不确定性对农村居民消费支出的负向影响大于城镇居民。     

Debt and household finance: evidence from the Financial Diaries

The Financial Diaries data-set is a unique, new set of year-long daily income, expense and financial transactions for households from three different areas of South Africa. These data show that over-indebted households (those that spend 20 per cent or more of their gross monthly income on debt) do not fit one homogeneous profile. Formal debt tends to be responsible for over-indebtedness in the urban areas, while in the rural areas the cause tends to be informal debt. In the urban areas high indebtedness is more prevalent among medium-income and high-income households, whereas in the rural areas it occurs at all income levels. High indebtedness in grant-dependent rural households tends to be persistent, whereas in wage-dependent urban households it is often short-lived. These findings present a new financial picture of poor rural populations that is unlikely to be touched by recent policy measures to address over-indebtedness.     

FISCAL ILLUSION AT THE LOCAL SPHERE: AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF THE FLYPAPER EFFECT USING SOUTH AFRICAN MUNICIPAL DATA1

While South Africa operates a relatively decentralised governance and administrative structure, an important feature of the country's intergovernmental fiscal relations system is the gap that exists between the expenditure responsibilities of sub‐national authorities and their assigned revenue bases. The resulting vertical fiscal imbalance is mainly addressed via significant intergovernmental transfers to provinces and local governments. This factor presents strong a priori grounds for assuming that in the South African context, the heavy dependence of many local governments on intergovernmental transfers may generate fiscal illusion. Despite this, there have not been many empirical studies of fiscal illusion in South Africa's intergovernmental transfer system. This paper extends existing literature on fiscal illusion by using the fiscal year 2005/06 financial and expenditure data from 237 local government authorities in South Africa to evaluate the flypaper variant of the fiscal illusion hypothesis. Empirical results indicate that the marginal effects of municipal own‐source revenues on local expenditure exceed those of intergovernmental transfers. No statistical evidence in support of the flypaper hypothesis within the context of municipal expenditures in South Africa is found.     

DEMAND FOR MONEY AND EXPENDITURE COMPONENTS IN SOUTH AFRICA: ASSESSMENT FROM UNRESTRICTED ERROR-CORRECTION MODELS

The main aim of this study is to examine empirically the long‐run relationship of money demand and its determinants in South Africa. In contrast with existing studies on the subject, the present study considers various components of real income as determinants. The disaggregated components are final consumption expenditure, expenditure on investment goods and exports. The other determinants are domestic interest rate, yield on government bonds and the exchange rate. The results confirm that the different components of real income have different impacts on the demand for money in South Africa. The presence of long‐run equilibrium relationships between the demand for real M1, M2 and M3 and their determinants is confirmed based on the results of bounds testing.     

An investigation into factors impacting financial exclusion at the bottom of the pyramid in South Africa

Financial exclusion has been shown to have negative socio-economic effects on citizens, especially at the bottom of the economic pyramid. South Africa suffers from high levels of financial exclusion, disproportionately at the bottom of the pyramid. This study investigates nine factors identified from the literature as being positively associated with financial exclusion using a logistic regression model. The findings show that the most significant factors associated with being financially excluded at the bottom of the pyramid in South Africa were educational level, primary source of income, age, home language and number of dependents. The study further found that gender, relationship status and home ownership were not associated with being financially excluded. An interesting finding was that living in a rural area as opposed to an urban area was not significantly associated with being excluded. The findings and their implications for expanding financial inclusion at the bottom of the pyramid are discussed.