A note on budget balance under interim participation constraints: the case of independent types

We provide a simple proof of the equivalence between ex ante and ex post budget balance constraints in Bayesian mechanism design with independent types when participation decisions are made at the interim stage. The result is given an interpretation in terms of efficient allocation of risk.     

Pooled Mean Group Estimation of the Bilateral Trade Balance Equation: USA vis‐à‐vis her Trading Partners

The autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL), even though it distinguishes between the short run and the long run effect, allows both the intercepts and slopes to vary across countries. Static panel estimations, such as fixed‐effects estimation (FE), cannot distinguish between the short run and the long run behavior. To address the issue of short run heterogeneity as well as long run homogeneity of the estimated coefficients in a panel framework, the pooled mean group (PMG) estimator has gained popularity since 1999. In this paper, we estimate the bilateral trade balance model for the USA vis‐à‐vis her 19 OECD trading partners for the period 1973q1–2004q4 using the PMG estimator and find that PMG performs better than ARDL, FE, and MG estimators and provides significant and theoretically consistent results.     

Optimal bilateral trade of multiple objects

We study a private-values buyer–seller problem with multiple objects. Valuations are binary and i.i.d. We construct mechanisms that span the set of all Pareto-efficient outcomes. The induced trading rules for objects are linked in a simple way.     

Bilateral trade with apositional traders

We study the standard model of bilateral trade under incomplete information dropping the assumption that traders know on which side of the market they are. We consider two mechanisms that differ only in the number of offers that an agent can submit. These mechanisms are realistic and they are ex post individually rational (i.e. regret free), while the usual mechanisms proposed in the literature satisfy the weaker requirement of interim individual rationality. Properties of the Bayesian equilibria are described for the general case. For the case where valuations are uniformly distributed in the unit square, two types of equilibria are derived for each mechanism and their efficiency properties are analyzed. As expected, the equilibria under the double offer mechanism are less inefficient than those under the single offer mechanism.     

Menu theorems for bilateral contracting

This paper studies bilateral contracting where multiple principals negotiate contracts with multiple agents independently. It is shown that pure-strategy equilibrium allocations relative to any ad hoc set of feasible mechanisms are supported by pure-strategy perfect Bayesian equilibria relative to the set of menus. This paper also shows that all equilibrium allocations to any ad hoc set of feasible mechanisms are supported by correlated equilibria relative to the set of menus, where a state is a probability distribution function over payoff-relevant variables. Furthermore, all equilibrium allocations relative to the set of menus persist even if principals use more complex mechanisms.     

贸易争端解决机制及其选择研究综述

本文对单边、双边、区域、多边争端解决机制及其选择的文献加以全面梳理,并且指出每种争端解决机制的不足之处,在对各种争端解决机制的理论分析和实证分析进行综述的基础上,得出政治、经济等因素会影响各种争端解决机制选择的结论。现有的研究对于中国贸易争端解决机制选择的系统性理论分析不足,实证研究欠缺,成为今后进一步研究的方向。     

中国与海合会双边贸易的实证研究——兼论建立双边自贸区的对策

海合会是中国重要的贸易伙伴,也是中国最主要的石油进口来源地,是中国重要的货物出口市场.本文旨在研究中国与海合会的双边贸易关系,为中国海合会自贸区谈判提供理论依据.运用贸易结合度指数、可显示比较优势指数和出口相似度指数等指标进行了实证分析,发现中国与海合会双边贸易的比较密切;海合会国家在绝大多数产品生产上没有比较优势,中国具有比较优势的产品很多,双方的出口商品结构互补性很强,双方贸易竞争性很弱.自由贸易区建立以后,不会因为双边贸易的扩张导致任何一方产业受损.中国政府应加快双边自贸区谈判,并考虑签署投资自由化协议,促进双边能源产业相互投资;中国企业应积极拓展海合会商品市场,发展对海合会服务出口.     

A general impossibility result on strategy-proof social choice hyperfunctions

A social choice hyperfunction picks a non-empty set of alternatives at each admissible preference profile over sets of alternatives. We analyze the manipulability of social choice hyperfunctions. We identify a domain D^λ of lexicographic orderings which exhibits an impossibility of the Gibbard–Satterthwaite type. Moreover, this impossibility is inherited by all well-known superdomains of D^λ. As most of the standard extension axioms induce superdomains of D^λ while social choice correspondences are particular social choice hyperfunctions, we are able to generalize many impossibility results in the literature.     

Some benefits of cyclical monetary policy

We show that modeling monetary circulation and cyclical activity offers insights about monetary policy that cannot be had in representative-agent models. Two fundamental ideas emerge: (i) the reflux of money back to the hands of those making current expenditures can be inefficient, and (ii) expansionary policy may accommodate more trade during high-demand seasons, at the expense of less trade in low-demand seasons and a less valuable currency. The paper provides a foundation for the optimality of a cyclical monetary policy. We thank Steve Williamson and, especially, an anonymous referee for helpful comments, as well as insightful discussions in presentations at the Cleveland Fed (2003), University of Iowa (2004), Queen’s University (2004), and more recently at the Chicago Fed, the New York Fed, the Institute of Advanced Studies, Simon Fraser University and the Universities of Vienna, British Columbia, and Victoria.     

递增阶梯定价:一个综述

作为较独特的非线性定价,递增阶梯定价使消费者预算凸边界非光滑,进而导致某些消费者消费决策异度集中而难以甄别。此特征致使递增阶梯定价机制的理论和实证研究非常复杂。鉴于公共资源的特殊性,公共资源定价需要合理地兼顾效率、社会公正和成本完全补偿原则。在多元化目标角度上,本文初步验证了递增阶梯定价机制的最优性,虽然此最优性受制于接入率和特征信息等假定。递增阶梯定价下的需求设定趋于统一但估计方法却趋于复杂化和多样化。关于递增阶梯定价下的(价格和收入)需求效应明显与否的问题存在完全相反的结果,实证研究和理论对其不一致性给出多种解释和探讨。这种差异性可能由于消费者对价格、价格设计者对家庭特征等信息不完全,还可能因为各实证分析结果中的时间、市场或产品特征维度含义差异所致。基于多元化目标和资源特性的递增阶梯定价机制的设计和执行问题,将成为递增阶梯定价理论研究发展的一大方向。     

知识产权保护与文化创意产品进口

文化创意产业被誉为21世纪的“朝阳行业”,在过去的十年间,经历了极为快速的发展,而知识产权保护与文化创意产品又有着天然而不可分割的关系。文章从知识产权保护的角度研究中国文化创意产品贸易,对于我国文化创意产业发展具有一定的现实意义。文章首先梳理了知识产权保护与国际贸易关系的相关文献,并报告了中国文化创意产品贸易与知识产权保护水平的现状,在引力模型的基础上,运用了18个发展中国家从20个发达国家进口文化创意产品的贸易数据,研究了知识产权保护力度对文化创意产品进口额的影响。研究表明,随着发展中国家提高知识产权保护力度,文化创意产品进口额也出现了增加的趋势。此外,文章使用了GDP和IPR的滞后一期作为工具变量以控制内生性问题,同样也得到了较为稳健的结果。     

Forbonnais,the two balances and the Économistes

Abstract

The link established by François Véron de Forbonnais (1722–1800) between two balances, the balance of trade and the balance of power, takes its full meaning in the context of the science of trade or “commerce politique” the author developed in his works. In polemical stance against the Économistes – the Physiocrats – and starting from the irremediable fact of the division of nations rather than their union, he intended to promote two goals: peace in Europe and the prosperity of nations through foreign trade. His approach was disputed by the Économistes who proposed instead a confraternal vision of nations in a free trade environment. This paper analyses Forbonnais' arguments, the answers of the Économistes and Forbonnais' final reply, and stresses the different views of politics this polemic denotes.     

中美双边贸易平衡问题再探——基于产品竞争力视角的分析

文章通过运用贸易竞争力指数和显示性比较优势指数,从类上(2001～2006年)和章上(2003～2006年)不同层次、中方与美方不同的统计口径,对比分析中美双边贸易产品的竞争力状况,并考察了在双边贸易中处于很低或较低竞争力的美国产品在世界贸易中的竞争力状况。文章还采用格鲁贝-劳埃德指数研究了美国在世界贸易中也处于弱竞争力状态的35章产品的产业内贸易水平。在此分析的基础上指出,美国对华贸易逆差的主要原因及实现双边贸易平衡的途径。