审计报告对预测银行授信失败有用性之实证研究

本研究的主要目的是探讨审计报告是否能帮助债权人评估借款人的违约风险(即借款人在借款之后发生逾期、催收和呆账等情况);亦即,当注册会计师对公司(借款人)的财务报告出具非无保留意见(包括保留意见、否定意见、及无法表示意见)时,该公司后续年度发生违约的机率是否较高﹖本研究结果有助我们了解,对债权人的授信决策及债权监控而言,注册会计师的审计报告是否为具有信息内涵的重要参考信息。实证结果支持本研究的实证假设:受查公司财务报告被注册会计师签具非无保留意见者,该公司后续年度发生违约(即催收、逾期、或呆账)的可能性较高。     

央行区域金融风险监测体系构建中存在的问题及改革建议

在国际金融危机持续恶化对中国经济金融产生明显影响的背景下,有效的提升央行的区域金融风险监测水平．对经济安全运行和金融稳定具有重要意义。文章首先分析了央行的区域金融风险监测体系,其次对其存在的问题与原因进行了探讨,最后对于如何完善区域金融风险监测体系提出有关对策建议。     

Free Bank Failures: Risky Bonds versus Undiversified Portfolios

Almost 30% of the 872 banks established under the Free Banking System (1837–62) are considered failures, unable to reimburse noteholders for the full value of their bank notes upon closure. Lacking sufficient data, economists have focused on one of two general failure explanations: poor regulation design or undiversified bank portfolios. I test both explanations within hazard functions using Warren Weber's annual balance sheet data for almost every antebellum bank. My results suggest that free banking's bond‐secured note issue was the underlying problem, but individual banks could have avoided failure by diversifying their assets with loans and controlling their circulation.     

Local Banking Market Frictions and Youth Crime: Evidence from Bank Failures

Journal of Financial Services Research - This paper examines the impact of local banking market frictions measured by bank failures on youth crime. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we...     

Bank Monitoring and Environmental Risk

Abstract:  Loan announcement effects for 152 Canadian companies are examined to investigate the efficiency of monitoring by banks facing lender environmental liability. Market reaction to the announcement of bank debt to 'environmental' firms is more positive and significant than for 'non-environmental' firms and, for firms in industries with a higher likelihood of experiencing spill events, is more positive and significant, reinforcing earlier results that establish a relationship between specific loan/borrower characteristics and announcement period excess returns and providing further evidence on the 'uniqueness' of bank loans by demonstrating the superior ability of banks to monitor corporate borrowers exposed to environmental liability.     

中美商业银行比较

经营范围对比 我国商业银行目前是分业经营.我国商业银行法第四十三条规定:商业银行在中华人民共和国境内不得从事信托投资和股票业务,不得投资于非自用不动产.商业银行在中华人民共和国境内不得向非银行金融机构和企业投资.而美国商业银行目前是混业经营.这也是美国商业银行不断争取的结果.美国商业银行除存贷款业务外,还有投资银行、信托等其它业务,号称"金融百货公司".     

中央银行独立性的国际比较与思考

从国际视角考察,随着货币政策在宏观调控中的作用日益重要,中央银行的独立性亦呈不断加强的趋势.在组织独立性、政策独立性、人事独立性和财务独立性几个方面,美联储、欧洲中央银行、日本银行各有特色,其中一些成功的做法值得借鉴.我国中央银行独立性近年来在稳步提高,同时还存在诸多需要加强和改善之处.对我国中央银行独立性状况,需要根据我同的实际情况,作辩证的分析和全面的理解.     

Monitoring and Controlling Bank Risk: Does Risky Debt Help?

We examine whether mandating banks to issue subordinated debt would enhance market monitoring and control risk taking. To evaluate whether subordinated debt enhances risk monitoring, we extract the credit‐spread curve for each banking firm in our sample and examine whether changes in credit spreads reflect changes in bank risk variables, after controlling for changes in market and liquidity variables. We do not find strong and consistent evidence that they do. To evaluate whether subordinated debt controls risk taking, we examine whether the first issue of subordinated debt changes the risk‐taking behavior of a bank. We find that it does not.     

Predicting Bond Ratings Using Neural Networks: A Comparison with Logistic Regression

Bond rating agencies examine the financial outlook of a company and the characteristics of a bond issue and assign a rating that indicates an independent assessment of the degree of default risk associated with the firm’s bonds. Predicting this bond rating has been of interest to potential investors as well as to the firm. Prior research in this area has primarily relied upon traditional statistical methods to develop models with reasonably good prediction accuracy. This article utilizes a neural network approach to modeling the bond rating process in an attempt to increase the overall prediction accuracy of the models. A comparison is made to a more traditional logistic regression approach to classification prediction. The results indicate that the neural networks-based model performs significantly better than the logistic regression model for classifying a holdout sample of newly issued bonds in the 1990–92 period. A potential drawback to a neural network approach is a tendency to overfit the data which could negatively affect the model’s generalizability. This study carefully controls for overfitting and obtains significant improvement in bond rating prediction compared to the logistic regression approach. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

典当与银行信贷的比较分析

典当在人类社会经济发展中有着悠久的历史。自1987年恢复典当业以来,我国典当业的发展取得了长足的进步,已成为我国金融体系的有益补充。随着金融改革的不断深化,如何加强典当业在金融体系中承担的金融功能,支持中小企业和三农发     

The Roles of Corporate Governance in Bank Failures during the Recent Financial Crisis

We analyze the roles of bank ownership, management, and compensation structures in bank failures during the recent financial crisis. Our results suggest that failures are strongly influenced by ownership structure: high shareholdings of lower‐level management and non‐chief executive officer (non‐CEO) higher‐level management increase failure risk significantly. In contrast, shareholdings of banks’ CEOs do not have a direct impact on bank failure. These findings suggest that high stakes in the bank induce non‐CEO managers to take high risks due to moral hazard incentives, which may result in bank failure. We identify tail risk in noninterest income as a primary risk‐taking channel of lower‐level managers.     

Predicting Bank CAMELS and S&P Ratings: The Case of the Czech Republic

This paper investigates the determinants of the movements in the capital-assets-management-earnings-liquidity-sensitivity to market risk (CAMELS) and the longterm Standard & Poors (S&P) bank ratings in the Czech Republic during the periods when the three largest banks, representing approximately 60 percent of the Czech banking sector's total assets, were first privatized (1998-2001) and then had sufficient time to operate under new owners (2002-2005). The same list of explanatory variables employed by the Czech National Bank's banking sector regulators, corresponding to the inputs of the CAMELS rating, are examined for both ratings to select their significant predictors. We employ an ordered-response logit model to analyze the long-run S&P rating and a standard panel data framework for the CAMELS rating. We find significant explanatory power for capital adequacy, funding spread, the ratio of total loans to total assets, the value-at-risk for total assets, and leverage.     

Collateralization,Bank Loan Rates,and Monitoring

We show that collateral plays an important role in the design of debt contracts, the provision of credit, and the incentives of lenders to monitor borrowers. Using a unique data set from a large bank containing timely assessments of collateral values, we find that the bank responded to a legal reform that exogenously reduced collateral values by increasing interest rates, tightening credit limits, and reducing the intensity of its monitoring of borrowers and collateral, spurring borrower delinquency on outstanding claims. We thus explain why banks are senior lenders and quantify the value of claimant priority.     

Predicting Private Company Failures in Italy Using Financial and Non‐financial Information

The study assesses the use of non‐financial information in predicting financial distress in private companies by developing credit risk models tailored to Italian private companies. The in‐sample and out‐of‐sample prediction test results are indicative of the incremental predictive ability of the two new non‐financial variables, that is, number of shareholders and number of subsidiaries, over accounting ratios and other widely used non‐financial information, including firm age and industry dummies. To be more specific, number of shareholders and number of subsidiaries are negatively associated with private company failures, and the models augmented by the two non‐financial variables improve forecasting performance from acceptable discrimination to excellent discrimination over one‐ to three‐year time horizons.     

内部监督、监管替代与银行价值

本文以银行内部监督为例,通过建立一个简单模型并进行实证检验,深入研究了监管对内部治理机制的替代关系及其对银行价值的影响。研究结果表明,监管确实改变了银行内部监督机制,产生了监管替代。监管对内部监督进而对银行价值的影响较为复杂,不同监管措施的影响存在差异。事前严格的监管降低了内部监督强度,对银行价值产生负面影响;事中监管监督的影响取决于对内部监督的替代程度,当替代效应大时会降低银行价值,反之,当替代效应小时则会提高银行价值。监管替代的存在表明良好的银行公司治理有赖于恰当的监管政策。为减少监管过度替代带来的问题,我国现行由监管部门主导银行改革的监管政策需要作出调整。     

银行信用评估模型效果的量化比较

信用评估模型能有效提高信用评估过程的科学性与结果的准确性.本文围绕主流信用评估模型在性能方面的差异化特征,基于德国信贷数据集、我国个人经营贷数据集与小微企业贷数据集,从六个模型性能评价维度对十二个代表性信用评估模型的拟合能力与泛化能力进行了深入研究.研究发现:(1)逻辑回归模型的总体性能最为优异,其次为判别分析、反向传播神经网络模型,其中逻辑回归模型与反向传播神经网络模型更适用于我国信贷场景;(2)基于无监督学习理论的自组织特征映射神经网络和k均值聚类模型,以及基于惰性学习理论的k最近邻模型的泛化能力较弱,表明各类有监督式主动学习模型更适用于解决信用评估问题;(3)模型理论与结构的复杂性并不必然能够使其在特定应用场景下获得较优的性能评价,结构简单、可解释性更强的模型往往稳健性更好.     

Credit Crunch Caused by Bank Failures and Self‐Selection Behavior in Lending Markets

This study investigates how bank failures affect the real economy from the lenders’ perspective. Using experimental settings of unique bank failures in Japan, this paper identifies the credit crunch effect by bank failures. The main findings are the following. First, bank failures decrease the investments of the client firms by approximately 30%. Second, the high investment growth/level firms deal with unhealthy banks. These choices generate a self‐selection bias of 30–80%. Third, there is no evidence that bank‐failure shock is related to the firms’ accessibility to other financial sources.