证券市场波动性影响因素的理论研究

证券市场波动性的影响因素研究长期以来一直是现代金融领域研究的主要问题之一,特别在我国证券市场还不完善的前提下研究就显得更有意义。已经有大量文献对证券市场波动性进行了研究,本文从宏观经济周期、货币供给、交易行为、机构投资者行为几个方面对相关文献进行了综述,对其研究成果进行了简要的回顾。     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE SYNCHRONISATION OF BUSINESS CYCLES FOR DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING ECONOMIES WITH THE WORLD BUSINESS CYCLE

Globalisation brought about worldwide changes, including economic and financial integration between countries. The objective of this paper is to establish if there is synchronisation between developed and developing countries with the world cycle. Research results show that business cycles have become less volatile after globalisation, but there is not much consensus on whether business cycles have become less or more synchronised since globalisation. Little research has been done on co‐movement between emerging markets, such as South Africa, and the world business cycle. This paper derives common factors for developed and developing countries by applying principal component analysis (PCA) to output, consumption and investment data, which represents the countries' business cycles. The empirical analysis shows co‐movement between some countries and the world business cycle (G7 countries as proxy). The results suggest that there are idiosyncratic and globally common shocks, which play different roles over time in different countries. The paper goes on to suggest that there are clear differences in how developed and emerging markets co‐move with the world business cycle. A key finding is that the co‐movement between developing economies and the world business cycle has increased since globalisation. This research also confirms previous research that most economies follow the world business cycle when large shocks – such as the recent economic downturn – occur. This has implications for forecasting the business cycle, especially in times of economic turmoil.     

论新农村建设中的资本要素缺失

我国政府已明确提出建设社会主义新农村的发展战略,而农村金融作为当代农村经济发展中至关重要的资本要素配置的相关制度安排,其作用日益凸显.当前,我国农村金融市场存在不均衡状态,为此应做到:尽快明确中国农业银行商业化改革的目标定位;拓展农业发展银行业务范围;加快农村信用社改革;民间融资合法化;建立农业保险体系;开辟农村资本市场,拓宽农业企业融资渠道.     

基于企业生命周期的财务危机防范机制研究

目前我国企业财务行为正在朝合理化、规范化方向发展,但受多方面因素的影响,企业财务行为还存在财务目标混乱、融资行为异化、投资行为短期化、分配行为扭曲等一系列问题;另一方面,企业有着自身的运动方式和生命周期,在其或长或短的寿命中,呈现出有规律的周期性变化。这种变化带来了理财环境和财务特征的变化,必然要求财务目标和财务行为的相机而变。本文主要着眼于研究企业生命周期各阶段的财务危机防范行为选择问题。     

我国消费金融业务的发展困境及对策刍议

根据2009年银监会文件成立的四家消费金融公司，是我国在拓展内需促进经济发展模式转型过程中作出的有益尝试，在前期发展过程中体现出自身的价值。文章针对消费金融公司前期发展过程中出现的业务发展较慢等问题，进行了简要的分析评述，并结合2014年开始施行的《消费金融公司试点管理办法》，针对发展困境提出了对策与建议。     

A Quantitative Assessment of the Role of Incomplete Asset Markets on the Dynamics of the Real Exchange Rate

I develop a two-country New Keynesian model with capital accumulation and incomplete international asset markets that provides novel insights on the effect that imperfect international risk-sharing has on international business cycles and RER dynamics. I find that business cycles appear similar whether international asset markets are complete or not when driven by a combination of non-persistent monetary shocks and persistent productivity (TFP) shocks. In turn, international asset market incompleteness has sizeable effects if (persistent) investment-specific technology (IST) shocks are a main driver of business cycles. I also show that the model with incomplete international asset markets can approximate the RER volatility and persistence observed in the data, for instance, if IST shocks are near-unit-root. Hence, I conclude that the nature of shocks, the extent of financial integration across countries and the existing limitations on asset trading are central to understand the dynamics of the real exchange rate and the endogenous international transmission over the business cycles.     

Monetary policy flexibility,risk management,and financial disruptions

This paper argues that the monetary policy that is appropriate during an episode of financial market disruption is likely to be quite different than in times of normal market functioning. When financial markets experience a significant disruption, a systematic approach to risk management requires policymakers to be preemptive in responding to the macroeconomic implications of incoming financial market information, and decisive actions may be required to reduce the likelihood of an adverse feedback loop. The central bank also needs to exhibit flexibility—that is, less inertia and gradualism than would otherwise be typical—not only in moving decisively to reduce downside risks arising from a financial market disruption, but also in being prepared to take back some of that insurance in response to a recovery in financial markets or an upward shift in inflation risks.     

市场情绪形成机理及其对投资者行为的影响

市场情绪影响着投资者的行为,时市场情绪形成机理的研究将有助于对投资者行为的认识,具有重要的理论和现实意义。文章以行为金融学和心理学理论为基础,分析了市场情绪的形成机理及其对投资行为的影响,并由此得出关于证券投资和证券市场调控的重要启示。     

Bank Lending and Business Cycles: South African Evidence

Abstract: The paper provides empirical analysis on the linkage between the behavior of bank lending and business cycles in South Africa. Consistent with theory, overall evidence suggesting pro‐cyclicality of bank lending is uncovered both at macro and micro levels. At macro level, bank lending and lending rates have moved in tandem with business cycles. Real borrowing by government was counter‐cyclical to business cycles as would be expected if the role of government was to fine‐tune the economy during booms and recessions. At micro level, bank lending to households and firms was generally pro‐cyclical. Even the growth of provisioning by banks has been largely pro‐cyclical to business cycles, though exceptions were recorded. First, new mortgage lending exhibited counter‐cyclical behavior before 1993. We attributed this behavior to the political and economic climate prevailing then which created uncertainties that made ownership of property a good hedge against economic and political risks. Secondly, the growth of real credit for investment and of foreign trade finance does not appear to have been related to business cycles.     

The macrodynamics of business cycles: A comparative evaluation Mohammed H.I. Dore Oxford: Blackwell Publishers, 1993, 242 pp.

In his latest book, Mohammed Dore has provided a much needed exposition of macroeconomic and business cycle theory since the advent of Keynes' General Theory. The book provides under one cover extended derivations of the main models that must be mastered if one is to be proficient in macroeconomic theory. It is, however, much more than just an expository volume; it is also a work of highly structured evaluation and criticism. The theories considered fall into the broad classifications of New Classical, New Keynesian, and endogenous cycle theories. The theories are rated on how well they account for ten stylized facts describing business cycles. The winner of the Dore sweepstakes is Richard M. Goodwin's endogenous cycle theory. While heartily endorsing Dore's criticism of representative agent models, this review expresses reservations about abandoning micro foundations.     

Equity,Bonds, Institutional Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from South Africa

We examine the finance‐growth nexus in South Africa accounting for the role of bond markets, stock markets, and bank and non‐bank financial intermediaries using a vector autoregressive technique. Extant empirical literature has largely accounted for only banks and stock markets, ignoring bond market and non‐bank financial intermediaries. We find that bond market development affects economic growth in South Africa, and no similar effect is observed for the bank and non‐bank financial intermediaries and the stock market. Our finding shows that examination of individual elements of the financial system is important in understanding the unique effect of each on growth. The observation that the bond market rather than stock market, bank and non‐bank institutions promote economic growth in South Africa induces an intriguing question as to what unique roles bond markets play that the intermediaries and equity market are unable to play.     

Hot Money and Business Cycle Volatility： Evidence from China

This paper investigates the link between hot money and business cycle volatility in China from January 1997 to December 2009. Using the structural vector error correction model we find a considerable degree of long-run cointegration and bidirectional causality effects between hot money and business cycle volatility. The speculative shocks are found to temporarily promote China＇s economic growth, but also to exacerbate business cycle volatility. The liquidity shock stemming from hot money is shown to be the primary factor responsible for the significantly enhanced fluctuation in business cycles during the most recent global financial crisis period This could be detrimental to the smooth operation of financial markets. Therefore, informing future policies, it is critical for policy-makers to take precautions against the speculative factors.     

我国商业银行中间业务发展现状、问题及对策研究

随着我国金融体制改革的深化,中间业务在继资产业务与负债业务之后,成为了商业银行的第三大支柱,因此,大力发展中间业务已成为商业银行必然的发展趋势。我国政府在商业银行发展中间业务过程中给予了一些指导和帮助,但在其中仍存在着制约其发展的因素。要解决这些问题,就要先分析出我国商业银行中间业务发展的现状,从中理出问题所在,并结合这些问题,根据我国实际,确立中间业务发展模式,逐步推进金融行业混业经营,使我国商业银行能在这一特殊历史时期快速、稳步的发展成为在国际金融市场上具有强大竞争力的商业银行。     

The labour market over the business cycle: can theory fit the facts?

We examine the ability of six labour market models to accountfor the business cycle behaviour of UK labour markets when embeddedin a stochastic growth model. We assess the models in termsof : (i) their ability to mimic general business cycle correlationsand volatility (ii) their success at explaining the persistenceof labour market fluctuations and (iii) whether they can explainwhy the growth and speed of adjustment of labour market variableschanges between periods of expansions and contractions. Themain success of the models is their ability broadly to accountfor business cycle correlations and comovements and the variationsin employment/unemployment growth rates between expansions andcontractions. However, there are three main failures: (i) themodels tend to produce insufficiently volatile employment andunemployment fluctuations (ii) they tend to produce too stronga correlation between wages and employment and (iii) most ofthem generate only brief temporary deviations in unemploymentin response to shocks rather than the protracted dynamics ofthe data.     

Intraday seasonality in activities of the foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the electronic broking system

This paper examines intraday patterns of the exchange rate behavior, using the “firm” bid–ask quotes and transactions of USD-JPY and Euro-USD recorded in the electronic broking system of the spot foreign exchange markets. The U-shape of intraday activities (deals and price changes) is confirmed for Tokyo and London participants, but not for New York participants. Activities do not increase toward the end of business hours in the New York market, even on Fridays (ahead of weekend hours of non-trading). Return volatility is found to have intraday patterns similar to those of activities, and volatility and the bid–ask spread is negatively correlated. A negative correlation is observed between the number of deals and the width of bid–ask spread during business hours. It is also found that the concentration of transaction during overlapping business hours between Tokyo and London markets (London and New York markets) may arise from heterogeneous expectations among participants from different regions. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 637–664.     

Access to Finance,Financial Development and Firm Ability to Export: Experience from Asia–Pacific Countries

With particular reference to Asia–Pacific countries, the present study examines how access to finance and financial development affects firms’ ability to enter export markets. Using firm‐level data from the World Bank Enterprises Survey, we found that access to finance plays a significant role in improving firms’ ability to export. In addition, development of the financial sector fosters export market entry. Among the financial development indicators, reach of the banking sector variable is most prominent. The present study suggests that improvements in access to finance and financial development (increases in the reach of the banking sector) enable firms operating away from capital or major cities to enter export markets easily. The present study supports policy intervention to strengthen access to the financial sector, which would encourage firms to export, and to facilitate export market entry for remotely located firms.     

Delivering quality accommodation for small businesses in London despite market difficulties

Public policy on the subject of small business support generally concentrates on tackling market failures in delivering finance, innovation, technical development, skills and entrepreneurship. However, in growing city regions such as London, the difficulty in obtaining good quality fit-for-purpose accommodation can be an important factor inhibiting the growth of otherwise successful business. The rate of business formation is very high in London, but paradoxically, the very vibrancy of the economy creates a real estate market that can be hostile to the needs of small businesses, particularly those which achieve rapid growth. This article will consider the factors that cause this situation and will then outline some practical examples of how they can be overcome by smart public sector intervention.     

企业集团财务公司的运作与企业绩效

为促进企业集团的发展,我国从1987年开始允许企业集团设立财务公司,发挥内部资本市场的功能,虽然规模不断扩大,但作用体现不明显。财务公司理论上的效用表现在降低企业集团外部的融资约束、更高资源配置效率,丰富企业集团快速调整公司内部战略资源的手段和提供有效的监督,相应的管理成本包括跨部门补贴、过度投资、代理成本。所以,财务公司的高效运作为企业集团增加价值的核心是确定财务公司合理的边界,明确哪些该做,哪些不做,而这个边界要兼顾效率与公平,财务公司的最优规模是边际利益与边际成本的相等点。