Emergent foresight processes: industrial activities in wireless communications

Technology foresight has received growing attention among those involved in the shaping and implementation of science and technology (S&T) policies. However, although evaluative analyses of foresight exercises have supplied evidence on acclaimed benefits—such as the generation of future-oriented knowledge and strengthening of collaborative networks—they also point to challenges in translating foresight results into actions within research and technology development (RTD) organizations. In this article, we address these challenges by considering the work of the Wireless World Research Forum (WWRF), which has sought to promote the conception, development, and diffusion of wireless communication technologies. Specifically, by contrasting this work with well-known government-initiated foresight exercises, we typify so-called explicit, emergent, and embedded foresight activities and explore their interrelationships. Our comparative analysis points to conditions under which policy interventions may not be needed for the emergence of foresight activities that exert a major influence on RTD agendas. It also suggests several context-dependent roles for public policy, among which government-driven foresight exercises and the catalysis of more narrowly focused activities are but two examples.     

Corporate tax policy and heterogeneous firm innovation: Evidence from a developing country

This paper adds to the literature by identifying the causality of corporate tax policy on firm innovation in a developing country. We exploit the China’s 2006 corporate income tax base reform to integrate the tax system between foreign-invested and state/collective-controlled firms as a natural experiment. The difference-in-differences strategy documents a positive effect of corporate tax deduction on firm patenting. The effect is particularly significant if a firm is of larger size or locates in eastern provinces. We also examine possible channels behind the findings, including changes in R&D and capital investment, intangible assets, financial constraints, and new product sales.     

Developing a model to evaluate the impacts of science,technology and innovation foresight on policy-making

Technology foresight as a policy intelligence tool can offer vital inputs for policy-making in various domains. The relationship between foresight and policy-making has been presented in the literature by the policy-related functions of foresight, but the literature reflects a theoretical gap with the systematic evaluation model for the impact of foresight on policy-making. This research seeks to bridge the existing gap and uses the mixed method for this purpose. The mixed method approach used in this paper is the sequential exploratory design. First, the conceptual model is developed in the qualitative part of this research by using meta-synthesis and constant comparative method (CCM) of analysis. Second, in the quantitative part, quantitative tests are used to evaluate the dimensions and components of the developed theoretical model. The data collection tool is a questionnaire. The results confirm the proposed dimensions of the evaluation model.     

基于集体主义的企业科技向善：逻辑框架与竞争优势

新冠疫情对经济及社会运行造成了重大冲击,除了履行慈善捐赠等传统社会责任行为,一些企业还通过科技创新与善意的产品供给抗击疫情,企业与社会的融合互动更加紧密,据此引出企业科技向善概念。通过厘清企业科技向善概念,梳理了企业科技向善与竞争优势的关系,讨论了企业科技向善的未来研究方向,从企业与社会关系角度丰富和扩展了企业战略管理研究,并为企业管理实践与政府监管提供了新视角。     

企业社会责任对医药企业创新绩效影响的实证研究——动态能力的中介作用

从资源能力一体化视角探索医药企业社会责任影响创新绩效的路径。基于利益相关者理论和资源基础理论,引入企业动态能力作为中介机制,以"资源-能力-绩效"为研究范式,构建医药企业社会责任影响其创新绩效的理论模型。通过对228份医药企业问卷进行统计分析,结果显示:医药企业社会责任对其创新绩效具有显著正向影响;动态能力在二者因果关系中发挥中介作用;利益相关者压力的调节作用不显著。研究结论对医药企业提升创新绩效具有一定借鉴意义。     

Diversity in foresight: Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas

Foresight activities have often provided support for objectives such as priority-setting, networking and consensual vision-building. In this paper, we draw upon complementary evolutionary perspectives and discuss these objectives from the viewpoint of diversity which may be vital in contexts characterized by technological discontinuities and high uncertainties. We also argue that although the scanning of weak signals has been widely advocated in such contexts, the solicitation of ideas for prospective innovations may provide more focused, action-oriented, and comparable reflections of future developments. For the analysis of such ideas, we develop a collaborative foresight method RPM Screening which consists of phases for the generation, revision, multi-criteria evaluation, and portfolio analysis of innovation ideas. We also report experiences from a pilot project where this method was employed to enhance the work of the Foresight Forum of the Ministry of Trade and Industry in Finland. Encouraging results from this project and other recent applications suggest that RPM Screening can be helpful in foresight processes and the development of shared research agendas.     

Beyond absorptive capacity in open innovation process: the relationships between openness,capacities and firm performance

The literature has shown that open innovation (OI) can be a winning strategy in improving firm performance. However, in order to adopt and implement it, managers need to resolve practical problems, such as understanding the role played by OI capacities and openness on firm performance. In response to these needs, this study aims to investigate the hierarchical relationships between openness, OI capacities and performance using a structural equation model approach. This paper also attempts to compare the levels of openness between firms in different industries to discover similarities and differences in OI phenomena. The analysis of data obtained from a survey of Korean firms shows significant interrelations between openness, OI capacities and firm performance. Our results go further in developing understanding of the building blocks on which successful OI is built and particularly suggest that desorptive capacity which underpins the out-bound OI process, is in turn strongly supported by knowledge management capacity. It is hoped that the results of this study can enrich our understanding of the OI mechanism and provide managerial and policy implications.     

The failure of foresight in crisis management: A secondary analysis of the Mari disaster

Foresight the ability to plan and think systematically about future scenarios in order to inform decision-making in the present has been applied extensively by corporations and governments alike in crisis management. Foresight can be complicated because dispersed groups have diverse, non-overlapping pieces of information that affects an organization's ability to detect, mitigate, and recover from failures. This paper explores the failure of foresight in crisis management by drawing on data on events that preceded and followed the Mari disaster in a naval base in Cyprus in July 2011, where a large explosion killed 13 people and injured 62 others, while completely destroying the major power plant of the island. The paper examines how foresight into crisis management decisions was compromised because of a conscious effort by high ranking decision-makers to minimize emergent danger and avoid responsibility for the crisis, in joint with red tape, bureaucracy, and poor coordination and information flows. The paper explores the notion of operational and political responsibility of individual decision-makers and discusses an alternative approach to foresight in crisis management, one that is built on multiple layers of decision-making.     

Financial innovation: theoretical issues and empirical evidence in Italy and in the UK

In the first part of the paper, we try to clearly identify financial innovations and draw a general framework. Despite the relevance of financial innovations, a unique definition is difficult to find. We then provide empirical evidence of such innovations on a sample of Italian and UK listed banks over the period 2005–2007 using financial account data. First, the absence of any mention of a specific organizational unit in charge of research and development (R&D) is highlighted. However, the existence of a research and developmental function involving different organizational units cannot be excluded. Second, innovation seems to be mainly concentrated in the product area, both in Italy and in the UK. This could be accounted for by the difference in the “life cycles” of innovations and by the different operational conditions of banks in both systems. Third, larger banks seem more innovative, both in Italy and in the UK. No clear relation between innovation and cost reduction/revenue increase seems to exist, at least in Italy. In the light of the above considerations, policy implication comes to light on whether the choice of not establishing a specific organizational unit dedicated to R&D could turn out effective in the medium-long term.

Technology foresight for a vision of energy sector development in Poland till 2030. Delphi survey as an element of technology foresighting

The security of energy supply at national level is one of the most fundamental missions of every government. This task becomes especially vital in view of the current situation on global energy markets. The planning of technological development in the energy and fuel sectors is a relevant element of energy security strategies. This in turn leads to a more rational and efficient energy use in the future. Technology foresight, which emerged as a proven instrument of technology policy during the 1950s, becomes nowadays one of the essential tools for the creation of the future technological development worldwide. A project entitled: “The Scenarios of Technological Development of Fuel and Energy Sector for National Energy Security” was the first foresight project in the field of energy technologies and at the same time the first technology foresight activity in Poland. This project was being carried out in the period of 2006-2007 by a consortium of research and development institutes on the request of the Polish Ministry of Economy. The aim of the project was to indicate energy and fuel sector development directions in the time horizon up to 2030 and identify key energy technologies of strategic importance. As a result of the foresight activity, technology development scenarios in the energy and fuel sector in Poland as well as corresponding roadmaps for their implementation were formulated. The project results should be helpful in drafting national energy policies and they will indicate priority pathways of research and development (R&D) activities in the next years.The energy foresight project was based mainly on a Delphi method that is nowadays widely applied as a valuable foresight tool. This future-oriented intuitive method was engaged for the qualitative and quantitative assessment of probable developments in the future and for their time scale evaluation as well. In this article, the results of the conducted two-round Delphi survey were presented.     

The future of the future: Strategic foresight in Latin America

With few differences in timing, future studies in Latin America were initiated with a linear conception of reality. Orchestrated with techniques such as the Delphi, future studies were supported by mathematical principles of probability. Several countries have surpassed this stage while moving into strategic foresight. Strategic foresight analyzes the future as a multiple reality. In other words, it means thinking differently and not reading reality in a linear manner. It means accepting that there is not one future but several futures and that one question could have more than one answer.This change has demanded a shift in mentality. The presence of the disciplines in universities is of vital importance. For example, the Technological Institute of Monterrey (Mexico) and the Universidad Externado de Colombia (Bogota) offer foresight and strategy programs at the graduate level.This article describes how different individuals, groups, agencies and institutions in Latin America have emerged thanks to the support provided by the science and technology governmental agencies of each country. The author provides examples from different countries including Colombia, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. Currently, strategic foresight is slowly gaining recognition and acceptance as a compass for productive sectors and as a generator of competitiveness.However, despite the contributions of strategic foresight, Latin American countries, with the exception of some of the above-mentioned countries, have struggled to take off into the future. The role of strategic foresight can become the driving force behind this awakening, if the challenge of linking global trends with local contextualization through scenarios is accepted.     

Firms as the source of innovation and growth: the evolution of technological competence

It is argued that the firm is the principal source of innovation and growth, a device for the establishment of technological competence, and for its continued development over time. Markets, products and background knowledge may change quite dramatically over time. Yet as a result of the cumulative nature of learning in the production processes of firms, the profile of corporate technological competence will tend to persist over quite long periods, provided there is institutional continuity. Within the same firm, competence may evolve into related areas, but the firm's technological origins will remain identifiable in its subsequent trajectories. However, if the institution itself changes more dramatically, this technological persistence may be disrupted. Supporting evidence is provided from data on the patenting of 30 large US and European companies, which have been continuously active since the interwar period. The science and the knowledge base, and the composition of products and markets may shift quite radically, but the firm's productive and technological system itself is potentially more stable. The firm provides a vehicle for potential institutional continuity and a device for managing transitions within the economic system.     

Dynamic capabilities and entrepreneurial management in large organizations: Toward a theory of the (entrepreneurial) firm

Mainstream economic theory has generally excluded consideration of the role of managers, which has, in turn, impaired its ability to explain resource allocation by, and heterogeneity among, firms. In the real world, managers are called on to fill entrepreneurial and leadership roles: sensing opportunities, developing and implementing viable business models, building capabilities, and guiding the organization through transformations. These entrepreneurial management tasks are part of the organization׳s capabilities, which also encompass embedded organizational processes that can be slow to change. An understanding of entrepreneurial management and organizational capabilities will contribute to more realistic economic models and a better understanding by policy makers of industrial dynamics and the requirements of innovation.     

Demographic processes in a model of innovation diffusion with dynamic market

In this paper we study a binomial innovation diffusion model for a variable size market by modelling the demographic process of entrance-exit from each market compartment. We examine from a theoretical point of view the effect of the simultaneous presence of economic and demographic parameters under the exponential market growth hypothesis, by presenting some general results on the adoptions and sales time path. We also enlighten the relevance of considering these variables in relative terms and show how, in presence of a dynamic, the diffusion process never saturates the market. Finally, we test our model on a data set for cellular phones market in different countries.     

Product innovation and employment growth at the firm level: a quantile regression approach to inter-industry differences

This article demonstrates that the relationship between product innovativeness and employment growth at the firm level depends on (i) market responses to innovations with different degrees of novelty, (ii) the location of firms on the growth distribution and (iii) industry conditions. As a result, research that uses standard regression techniques such as OLS and does not account for innovation characteristics and industry differences fail to properly describe this relationship     

高技术企业技术与战略融合研究

基于对技术与企业战略的关联机理的剖析,提出高技术企业中两者的融合模式,包括将技术融入战略流程和与技术变革相应的战略变更。详尽阐述了融合过程中需重点考虑的问题及使用的主要技术工具,以及应对多变技术环境所应实施的战略变更。     

企业高层领导跨界学习能力的结构维度与影响作用——基于中国情境的扎根理论研究

企业高层领导跨界学习能力已成为企业保持持久生存和发展的必然要求。对30位企业高层领导一对一访谈资料进行扎根理论分析,构建“驱动力—行为策略—结果”的企业高层领导跨界学习能力结构维度及其影响作用模型,并运用组织学习理论与高阶理论对模型进行诠释。结果表明：企业高层领导跨界学习能力由跨界学习愿景构建能力、跨界学习领域选择能力、边界惯性重构能力、跨界学习执行能力和跨界知识挖掘能力5个能力结构要素构成;企业高层领导跨界学习能力通过新思维引入、本位跨越提升组织双元学习水平,影响企业持续创新和管理创新绩效。     

技术并购企业创新绩效影响因素研究——以中国高端装备制造业为例

以2013—2017年中国高端制造业发生的技术并购事件为对象,展开技术并购企业创新绩效影响因素研究。结果表明,企业间关联关系、技术吸收能力和目标企业绝对知识规模对技术并购企业创新绩效有正向影响;并购双方相对知识规模和上市时长对技术并购企业创新绩效有负向影响;企业间关联关系、技术吸收能力会弱化并购双方相对知识规模对企业创新绩效的负向影响。基于此,建议我国高端装备制造企业发展到成熟阶段后,可以通过技术并购开展创新活动;在并购中,并购企业要根据自身技术吸收能力选择绝对知识规模合适的目标企业;继续提高研发投入强度,增强并购后的技术整合能力。     

双元创新与企业可持续发展:短期财务绩效与长期竞争优势的中介作用

基于创新驱动视角,探究双元创新对企业可持续发展的影响机制,并检验短期财务绩效和长期竞争优势在其中的中介作用。通过对196家高新技术企业调查问卷的统计分析发现,双元创新会对企业可持续发展产生正向影响,但两种创新的影响路径完全不同;短期财务绩效和长期竞争优势作为共同中介变量,在利用式创新和企业可持续发展之间起部分中介作用;长期竞争优势作为中介变量,在探索式创新和企业可持续发展之间起完全中介作用。对企业可持续发展而言,利用式创新的总效应大于探索式创新的间接效应。研究结论具有重要的理论意义和实际应用价值。     

Evaluating innovation and labour market relationships: the case of Italy

In this paper the link between labour market flexibility andinnovation is analysed paying particular attention to the differenttechnological regimes of economic activities and the differentgeographical areas of the Italian economy. A dynamic panel dataspecification is used to assess the endogenous relationshipbetween patents, included as a proxy for innovation, and jobturnover and wages, which represent labour market indicators.Our results show that higher job turnover only has a significantand negative impact on patent activities in regional sectorsof Northern Italy, while blue and white collar wages have beengenerally found to have a positive and significant impact oninnovation.