Value-Added Erosion in Global Value Chains: An Empirical Assessment

In the period from 1995 to 2008, many countries experienced what we call the “value-added erosion.” It describes the decline in the sectoral shares of domestic value-added in a country’s exports as the country becomes more integrated into the global value chains (GVCs). We argue that the decline of the domestic value-added share in a country’s exports is likely to be caused by the expansion of high value-adding activities performed by foreign lead firms in the upper stream of the GVCs. The variables of interest — the domestic value-added share in exports and foreign high-skill labor embodied in a country’s exports (a proxy for foreign lead firms’ high value-adding activities) — are estimated using a multi-regional global input-output model. Using these results and other control variables, we apply a panel cointegration model to explain and assess the likelihood of value-added erosion and its possible determinants.     

全球价值链嵌入、出口技术升级与制造业增加值隐含碳——来自浙江细分行业的经验证据

以外向型经济和制造业大省浙江为例,运用投入产出法测度2001—2017年浙江制造29个细分行业出口增加值隐含碳,并运用面板数据模型研究了嵌入全球价值链、出口技术升级对出口增加值隐含碳的影响。研究表明,浙江省制造业出口产品单位贸易利益的二氧化碳排放成本即出口增加值隐含碳大幅度下降。出口技术升级、贸易开放显著地降低了浙江省制造业出口增加值隐含碳,能源强度、人力资本、参与国际垂直分工等因素导致了出口增加值隐含碳的增长。交叉项检验表明,研发强度较高的行业出口技术升级会显著降低出口增加值隐含碳,外商直接投资、煤炭消耗占比、资本劳动占比较高的行业出口技术升级会导致出口增加值隐含碳的增加。     

中国国际分工地位的再评估?--基于出口技术复杂度与国内增加值双重视角的分析

合理地评估当前中国的国际分工地位是判断中国的出口优势与劣势以及提升中国的国际分工地位的重要依据。文章将出口技术复杂度和国内增加值率结合起来,构建了同时具有产品属性和增加值属性的国际分工地位新指标,并基于投入产出框架构建了理解国际分工地位差异的理论模型,进而对中国的国际分工地位进行了再评估。结果表明：(1)考虑服务业出口后,目前中国的国际分工地位处于最为落后的经济体行列,亚洲新兴经济体的国际分工地位普遍不高,发达经济体和资源丰富的经济体拥有较高的国际分工地位。(2)1995-2009年中国与美国、印度和巴西之间的分工地位差距有所扩大,与德国之间的分工地位差距比较稳定,而与日本之间的分工地位差距则有所缩小。(3)结构分解的分析显示,中国国际分工地位落后的主要原因是出口结构问题,即服务业出口比重过低,而国内增加值率的降低也在发挥越来越重要的影响。(4)中国国际分工地位指数的变动主要源于产业属性效应和国内增加值效应,而出口结构效应的影响则较低。因此,调整出口结构和提升国内增加值率是中国未来提升国际分工地位的两种重要方式。     

国际价值与国际价格:劳动价值论的解释

马克思在劳动价值论中对于商品的国民价值向国际价值转移的内在机制及相关理论没有形成系统的论述。笔者认为,商品的国际价值量由“世界劳动的平均单位”决定,并且只有进入国际市场的那一部分商品才具备国际价值量的属性。遵循价格围绕价值波动的基本原理,国际价格也是围绕国际价值波动的。在国际贸易利益的分配上,参与国际贸易的商品可以获取国际价值和国际价格的双重利益。     

国际购买力平价和简化净出口函数:中国实证

文章从国际交换价值的角度研究了一价定律的内涵,提出了国际购买力平价理论,并且证明了国际购买力平价是严格意义上的均衡汇率。2009年人民币贸易品购买力平价为6.70元人民币/美元,而国际购买力为5.49元人民币/美元,后者可作为确定人民币汇率处于均衡水平的参考。文章还简化了净出口函数,得出如下主要结论:(1)近年我国的贸易顺差大幅增长,主要是因为价格贸易条件恶化,其次是因为J曲线效应;(2)当前的首要任务是改善我国的价格贸易条件以提高国际购买力平价,而不是调整人民币汇率。     

垂直专业化与中国企业技术创新

本文利用面板数据分析方法,从行业和地区的角度实证分析了垂直专业与中国企业技术创新之间的关系。研究发现,以垂直专业化融入全球价值链在总体上促进了企业技术创新产出的提高,但对本土的创新投入有一定的挤出效应。通过对不同种类专利数据的进一步分析表明,中国企业往往只是掌握某些实用型的非核心技术实现一般意义上的产品升级,要彻底改变中国企业在全球价值链中的位置,仍需要在开放条件下实现本土自主创新能力的提升。     

全球价值链下中国的对外贸易

全球价值链(GVC)作为一种组织和治理力量,已使当今的国际贸易发生了重大变化,也对中国的对外贸易产生了深刻影响。本文首先总结在GVC的影响下,当前国际贸易呈现的6个特征性事实;其次揭示了在中国贸易急剧增长的表象下,隐藏着GVC这样一种组织和治理的力量,并从结构、地区、主体和地位等方面,分析了GVC对中国对外贸易的影响;最后,指出中国外贸在GVC下面临的挑战及相关的对策。     

新阶段中国商品对俄出口研究

中国俄罗斯年开启了中俄交流的大幕。在这个时期,中国加大商品出口,平衡对俄贸易逆差已不容忽视。中国商品在俄罗斯市场具有明显的竞争优势,应借助俄罗斯中国年活动平台,促进相互了解和发展,优化产品出口结构,进一步开拓俄罗斯市场。     

Does participation in global value chains extend export duration?

This paper investigates the relationship between participation in global value chains (GVCs) and export duration based on a model of discrete‐time proportional hazards. The econometric analysis relies on the merged data of Chinese Annual Survey of Industrial Firms (CASIF) database and Chinese Customs Trade Statistics (CCTS) database over the period from 2000 to 2013. Empirical results suggest that participation in GVCs could positively extend export duration and is robust to various specifications, including the samples with multiple spells, measurement error, and the alternative measure of participation in GVCs. Further studies based on heterogeneous variables demonstrate that the improvement of product quality, asset‐specific investment, and product diversity for enterprises participating in GVCs could positively extend export duration. This paper contributes to our understanding of how participation in GVCs affects export duration based on firm heterogeneity. Our results may have important implications for enterprises wishing to avoid export risks.     

The trade effects of Albania’s trade agreements with CEFTA members

Since the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) was signed in 2006, Albanian exports to CEFTA member countries have increased four-fold. Applying a trade growth decomposition methodology, we show that Albanian firms that did not export to CEFTA countries before the agreement account for a large share of this export growth. Exports also increased among goods that were the least traded before the agreement. Estimating a gravity equation, we find that the CEFTA increased Albanian exports between 34% and 144%, depending on how the previous bilateral agreements with CEFTA countries are accounted for. Additional regression analyses conclude that the CEFTA fostered exports through the reduction of tariffs.     

中国对外贸易失衡的影响因素*——基于贸易增加值（TiVA）测算数据的实证分析

中国持续对外贸易顺差引起了学者们的广泛关注。然而现有文献大都基于传统贸易统计方法,没有考虑全球价值链背景下中间品多次跨越国界的重复计算问题,无法反映中国真实的贸易顺差水平。本文基于WIOD数据库1995-2011年的数据,采用投入产出领域的贸易增加值（TiVA）方法,测算出中国与38个贸易伙伴之间的增加值贸易顺差,并对其影响因素进行了实证分析。研究发现,中国加入WTO之前人民币汇率升值对贸易顺差的影响较小而且不显著,而加入WTO之后,人民币汇率升值可以有效降低中国的贸易顺差。在华FDI总额对贸易顺差的影响呈现出相似的特点,即加入WTO之前,总体FDI不显著,加入之后影响显著。FDI来源地区分析显示,美国和亚洲四小龙在中国内地FDI增加可以显著提升中国内地的贸易顺差,而日本和德国在华FDI则会降低中国内地的贸易顺差。     

Factors affecting trade in services: evidence from panel data

In the course of economic development, nations have typically progressed through stages in which agriculture, then manufacturing and, finally, services predominate. Concerns around the sustainability of manufacturing and goods export-led growth raise the importance of trade in services. In the context of a panel model, controlling for the factors that determine trade in general, we examine the determinants of trade in services in a sample of 46 countries over the decade 2004–2015. We find an ambiguous pattern of effects from institutional quality but strong evidence of the importance of trade in goods for trade in services.