考虑生存偏差现象的我国封闭式基金绩效持续性研究

生存偏差是进行我国封闭式基金绩效研究不可忽视的问题。本文选取2001-2009年我国54只契约型封闭式基金为样本,研究了生存偏差对封闭式基金绩效持续性的影响。结论认为,我国封闭式基金生存偏差效应显著为负,所估计得到的生存偏差效应值介于每年-4.97%至-0.34%之间;退市基金规模较小、绩效较高是导致这一结论的主要原因;同时,研究发现,生存偏差会减弱封闭式基金绩效持续性。     

Mutual Fund Survivorship

This article provides a comprehensive study of survivorshipissues using the mutual fund data of Carhart (1997). We demonstratetheoretically that when survival depends on multiperiod performance,the survivorship bias in average performance typically increaseswith the sample length. This is empirically relevant becauseevidence suggests a multiyear survival rule for U.S. mutualfunds. In the data we find the annual bias increases from 0.07%for 1-year samples to 1% for samples longer than 15 years. Wefind that survivor conditioning weakens evidence of performancepersistence. Finally, we explain how survivor conditioning affectsthe relation between performance and fund characteristics.     

Survivorship bias in performance studies

Recent evidence suggests that past mutual fund performance predictsfuture performance. We analyze the relationship between volatilityand returns in a sample that is truncated by survivorship andshow that this relationship gives rise to the appearance ofpredictability. We present some numerical examples to show thatthis effect can be strong enough to account for the strengthof the evidence favoring return predictability.     

Generalized Frasier Claim Rates Under Survivorship Life Insurance Policies

Abstract

This paper proposes two modifications to the well-known Frasier formula, often used in the pricing, design, and valuation of survivorship life insurance policies: (1) allowing lapse rates to change after the first death and (2) reflecting simultaneous exposure to the same hazards, such as infectious diseases and common accidents, and possibly higher mortality among survivors. The purpose is to improve the pricing and valuation of survivorship life insurance. The paper will be of interest to actuaries doing pricing, GAAP valuation, self-support certifications, and to illustration actuaries. The results are important to reinsurers and direct writers. The paper includes numerical examples and compares the claim rates with and without the suggested modifications. The modified survivorship claim rates are considerably higher than those developed using pure Frasier, emphasizing the importance of learning to use these or similar methods.     

Imperfect Accounting and Reporting Bias

Errors and bias are both inherent features of accounting. In theory, while errors discourage bias by lowering the value relevance of accounting, they can also facilitate bias by providing camouflage. Consistent with theory, we find a hump‐shaped relation between a firm's propensity to engage in intentional misstatement and the prevalence of unintentional misstatements in the firm's industry for the whole economy and a majority of the industries. The result is robust to using firms’ number of items in financial statements and exposure to complex accounting rules as alternative proxies for errors and to using the restatement amount in net income to quantify the magnitude of bias and errors. To directly test for the two effects of errors, we show that when errors are more prevalent, the market reacts less to firms’ earnings surprises and bias is more difficult to detect. Our results highlight the imperfectness of accounting, advance understanding of firms’ reporting incentives, and shed light on accounting standard setting.     

Individual Investors and Local Bias

The paper tests whether individuals have value‐relevant information about local stocks (where “local” is defined as being headquartered near where an investor lives). Our methodology uses two types of calendar‐time portfolios—one based on holdings and one based on transactions. Portfolios of local holdings do not generate abnormal performance (alphas are zero). When studying transactions, purchases of local stocks significantly underperform sales of local stocks. The underperformance remains when focusing on stocks with potentially high levels of information asymmetries. We conclude that individuals do not help incorporate information into stock prices. Our conclusions directly contradict existing studies.     

Gender Bias and Credit Access

We extract an exogenous measure of gender bias from survey responses by descendants of U.S. immigrants on questions about the role of women in society. We then use data on around 6,000 small business firms from 17 countries and find that in high‐gender‐bias countries, female entrepreneurs are more likely to opt out of the loan application process and to resort to informal finance, even though banks do not appear to actively discriminate against them. These results are not driven by credit risk differences between female‐ and male‐owned firms or by any idiosyncrasies in the set of countries in our sample.     

Aggregation Bias in Repeat-Sales Indices

The repeat-sales methodology has become a standard approach for estimating real estate price indices. This article examines the underlying assumptions inherent in the repeat sales model and provides an empirical test for both included and omitted variables as sources of aggregation bias. The results indicate that virtually all price indices may be biased, the degree of bias being dependent upon the number of variables examined and the instability of their parameters over time.     

Bias of a Value-at-Risk estimator

We develop the analytical second-order bias of a Value-at-Risk estimator based on an ARCH(1) volatility specification when the parameters are estimated by the method of quasi maximum likelihood. We show that the bias results from two sources: assumption on the distribution of the standardized residuals and the parameter estimation error.     

Rationality and Analysts' Forecast Bias

This paper proposes and tests a quadratic-loss utility function for modeling corporate earnings forecasting, where financial analysts trade off bias to improve management access and forecast accuracy. Optimal forecasts with minimum expected error are optimistically biased and exhibit predictable cross-sectional variation related to analyst and company characteristics. Empirical evidence from individual analyst forecasts is consistent with the model's predictions. These results suggest that positive and predictable bias may be a rational property of optimal earnings forecasts. Prior studies using classical notions of unbiasedness may have prematurely dismissed analysts' forecasts as being irrational or inaccurate.     

论逆向避税

随着世界经济一体化的程度不断提高 ,国际避税问题也日趋严重。如何防范国际避税已为各个国家和国际组织所重视 ,并成为国际税法中的一项核心问题。在本文中 ,笔者将探讨逆向避税———一种广泛存在于中国国内涉外企业中的国际避税行为。本文首先界定逆向避税的概念 ;其次分析逆向避税的动机和手段 ,并指出逆向避税造成的严重危害 ;最后结合我国税法实际构思相应对策税制及其它措施。     

Personal Bias in Automobile Claims Settlement

Despite the importance of claims handling practices to consumers and insurers, relatively little research has been done in this area. Our purpose here is to consider one aspect of automobile bodily injury liability claims management: the assignment of fault across parties as judged by the insured defendant's claims adjuster. Because legal fault assessment directly affects whether a defendant is held liable, and if so, for how much, this aspect of claims management is significant. We use accident data from the 1997 Insurance Research Council Closed Claim Survey to test for relationships between fault assessment and gender, age, and state comparative negligence rules. Controlling for actual fault, we find a greater assessment of fault against female, young, and elderly drivers. The results of the study are of interest to insurers seeking to provide better customer service, to consumer advocacy groups interested in claims settlement practices, and to insurance regulators.     

Exponential Growth Bias and Household Finance

Exponential growth bias is the pervasive tendency to linearize exponential functions when assessing them intuitively. We show that exponential growth bias can explain two stylized facts in household finance: the tendency to underestimate an interest rate given other loan terms, and the tendency to underestimate a future value given other investment terms. Bias matters empirically: More‐biased households borrow more, save less, favor shorter maturities, and use and benefit more from financial advice, conditional on a rich set of household characteristics. There is little evidence that our measure of exponential growth bias merely proxies for broader financial sophistication.     

What Determines the Domestic Bias and Foreign Bias? Evidence from Mutual Fund Equity Allocations Worldwide

We examine how mutual funds from 26 developed and developing countries allocate their investment between domestic and foreign equity markets and what factors determine their asset allocations worldwide. We find robust evidence that these funds, in aggregate, allocate a disproportionately larger fraction of investment to domestic stocks. Results indicate that the stock market development and familiarity variables have significant, but asymmetric, effects on the domestic bias (domestic investors overweighting the local markets) and foreign bias (foreign investors under or overweighting the overseas markets), and that economic development, capital controls, and withholding tax variables have significant effects only on the foreign bias.     

Generalised Rational Bias in Financial Forecasts

Laster et al. (Q J Econ 114(1):293–318, 1999) built an economic model in which forecasters have incentives to generate forecasts that differ form the consensus. It is shown that the dispersion of the equilibrium distribution of forecasters, depends on the relative importance given on the intensive forecast users’ loss versus the publicity gain from occasional users. These results depend heavily on the assumption of symmetry for the loss and density functions. In this paper we examine the effects of generalising loss preferences and probability densities to allow for asymmetries through the LinEx loss and the Skewed Normal density, respectively. We derive the generalised equilibrium distribution of forecasts which contains the results of Laster et al. as a special case. The presence of asymmetric preferences is shown to cause a movement of the distribution away from the conditional mean, towards the optimal forecast under loss asymmetry. Furthermore, forecasts now tend to cluster around this quantity in an asymmetric way. These effects tend to be further strengthened or partially offset by the presence of skewness in the distribution of data, a result consistent with the conclusions of Christodoulakis (Finan Res Lett 2:227–233, 2005).The author is grateful to an anonymous referee for helpful comments that have improved the paper. The views expressed in the paper are those of the author and should in no part be attributed to the Bank of Greece.     

Information Aggregation Bias and Samuelson's Dictum

Under the assumption of incomplete information, idiosyncratic shocks may not dissipate in the aggregate. An econometrician who incorrectly imposes complete information and applies the law of large numbers may be susceptible to information aggregation bias. Tests of aggregate economic theory will be misspecified even though tests of the same theory at the microlevel deliver the correct inference. A testable implication of information aggregation bias is “Samuelson's Dictum” or the idea that stock prices can simultaneously display “microefficiency” and “macroinefficiency;” an idea accredited to Paul Samuelson. Using firm-level data from the Center for Research in Security Prices, we present empirical evidence consistent with Samuelson's dictum. Specifically, we conduct two standard tests of the linear present value model of stock prices: a regression of future dividend changes on the dividend-price ratio and a test for excess volatility. We show that the dividend price ratio forecasts the future growth in dividends much more accurately at the firm level as predicted by the present value model, and that excess volatility can be rejected for most firms. When the same firms are aggregated into equal-weighted or cap-weighted portfolios, the estimated coefficients typically deviate from the present value model and “excess” volatility is observed; this is especially true for aggregates (e.g., S&P 500) that are used in most asset pricing studies. To investigate the source of our empirical findings, we propose a theory of aggregation bias based on incomplete information and segmented markets. Traders specializing in individual stocks conflate idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks to dividends. To an econometrician using aggregate data, these assumptions generate a rejection of the present value model even though individual traders are efficiently using their available information.     

The Delisting Bias in CRSP Data

I document a delisting bias in the stock return data base maintained by the Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP). I find that delists for bankruptcy and other negative reasons are generally surprises and that correct delisting returns are not available for most of the stocks that have been delisted for negative reasons since 1962. Using over-the-counter price data, I show that the omitted delisting returns are large. Implications of the bias are discussed.     

对住房反向抵押贷款的思考

随着我国老龄化社会程度的加重,社会保障压力不容回避.而市场经济国家通过住房反向抵押贷款,实现了以房养老,既提高了老年人的生活质量,又减轻了国家社会保障压力.因此,在我国推出住房反向抵押贷款,对于构建和谐社会有着重要的意义.     

因果倒置的财务管理

有因才有果,因是主导,果是结局,这是人所皆知的常识,但生活中却常常有因果倒置的事情发生。笔者第一次戴红领巾,是10岁时的“六一”儿童节。那晚挤在外婆家的大院里与表兄妹们一起看《红孩子》,一阵凉风掠过,胸前的红领巾随风飘起,心中不免阵阵得意。其实,那时的笔者根本不够资格当上“红孩子”,之所以能够戴上红领巾,是因为糊涂的祖父听错了名字,先把两毛钱一条的红领巾钱交给了班主任,然后班主任就将错就错地给笔者戴上了。三年级的时候,笔者还不懂得文过饰非乃成人的惯常作为,却在幼小的心里埋下了这样一颗怪异的种子：原因与结果的逻辑关系原来是可以倒置互换的。     

Survival Bias and the Equity Premium Puzzle

Previous authors have raised the concern that there could be serious survival bias in the observed U.S. equity premium. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we argue that the survival bias in the U.S. data is unlikely to be significant. To reach this conclusion, we introduce a general framework for modeling survival and derive a mathematical relationship between the ex ante survival probability and the average survival bias. This relationship reveals the fundamental difficulty facing the survival argument: High survival bias requires an ex ante probability of market failure, which seems unrealistically high given the history of world financial markets.