Conservatism in residual income models: theory and supporting evidence

In this paper, we develop a framework for evaluating the impact of conservative accounting on the structure of residual income models of equity valuation. We explore specific examples of both unconditional and conditional conservatism and observe a common mathematical structure. We proceed to generalise our model and identify the joint dependency of conservatism and the persistence of abnormal earnings on the weights attached to book values, earnings and dividends. We are able to show theoretically the likely numerical impact of conservatism on price-earnings ratios and under-valuations produced by residual income models. We investigate empirically the interaction between conservatism and persistence and find they accord well with the theory developed. We briefly discuss the implications of testing the effect of conservatism on valuation and linear information dynamics.     

A note on accounting conservatism in residual income and abnormal earnings growth equity valuation

The impact of conservative accounting on residual income (RI) and abnormal earnings growth (AEG) valuation models is investigated in this note. Limiting the analyses to information dynamics constrained models (the core models in Ohlson, 1995; Ohlson & Juettner-Nauroth, 2005), we find that both models can handle accounting conservatism if the persistence factors of residual income or abnormal earnings growth fulfil certain conditions. In a comparison of permissible time-series specifications, the AEG model can potentially handle more conservatively biased earnings in the first forecast period than the RI model. However, this requires that the growth of the conservative bias in the second forecast period is not too large. In a 0-NPV competitive equilibrium with a constant steady state growth, both models work equally well. Further elaborations indicate that, in the presence of accounting conservatism a reasonable value of the persistence factor of residual income in the RI model should be in the interval between 1.0 and R (where R = 1 + discount rate), whereas the persistence factor of abnormal earnings growth in the AEG model should be close to 1.0. This implies that the persistence factor in the RI model appears to have been understated while the persistence factor in the AEG model appears to have been overstated in previous empirical research.     

Disclosure Interactions and the Cost of Equity Capital: Evidence From the Spanish Continuous Market

Abstract:  The purpose of this paper is to provide some new evidence on the relationship between disclosure and the cost of equity capital. We propose a new specification for the empirical test based on the idea that in the previous models one crucial variable was missing: accounting policy choice. We test our theoretical hypothesis using a sample of Spanish firms quoted on the Spanish continuous market from 1999 to 2002. We adopt the ex-ante approach to measure the cost of equity capital, taking analysts predictions as a proxy for expected earnings. As an explanatory variable we use an index measuring annual report disclosure quality. This measure of disclosure is combined with a proxy for the accounting policy choice of the firm. We measure firms' conservatism using the modified Jones model of Dechow et al. (1995) to estimate discretionary accruals. Our results confirm that the relationship between disclosure and cost of capital is affected by the choice of accounting policy.     

The effect of differential accounting conservatism on the “over-valuation” of high-tech firms relative to low-tech firms

This paper examines systematic differences in the level of accounting conservatism between high-tech and low-tech firms. Relying on the recent development in theoretical models and empirical measures of conservatism, we investigate conservative accounting practices and earnings management behavior in high-tech and low-tech firms. The results based on comparisons of cumulative nonoperating accruals, regression coefficients from the income timeliness models in Basu (1997), the distribution of earnings, and discretionary accruals between the two groups are consistent with a higher level of accounting conservatism in high-tech firms vis-à-vis low-tech firms. Additional analyses show that the effect of conservatism cannot be used as a defense for the over-valuation of high-tech firms.     

Discussion of “Using earnings forecasts to simultaneously estimate firm-specific cost of equity and long-term growth”

Accounting-based valuation models allow us to develop rigorous estimates of either value or the expected rate of return on equity capital (i.e., ERR) without making steady-state forecasts that rely on ad hoc assumptions about dividend policy. Hence, these models have great potential. Their ultimate usefulness, however, depends on the extent to which users of them make assumptions about future residual income that are consistent with the underlying accounting. Nekrasov and Ogneva contribute by developing a methodology that allows us to integrate information about accounting attributes such as conservatism into our estimates of the growth rate in residual income. Hence, their methodology can be used to improve our understanding of the role that conservatism plays in determining growth. This, in turn, improves our ability to estimate key parameters such as value and the expected rate of return on equity capital.     

Debt Maturity Structure and Accounting Conservatism

This study examines the association between debt maturity structure and accounting conservatism. Short‐maturity debt can mitigate agency costs of debt arising from information asymmetry and suboptimal investment problems inherent in debt financing. As such, debt‐contracting demand for accounting conservatism is expected to be lower in the presence of more short‐maturity debt. We find that short‐maturity debt is negatively associated with accounting conservatism. As firms could commit to more accounting conservatism to gain access to long‐maturity debt, we conduct lead‐lag tests of the direction of causality, and the results suggest that more short‐maturity debt leads to less conservative reporting, rather than the reverse. We also find the negative relation between short‐maturity debt and accounting conservatism is more pronounced among financially distressed firms, where ex ante severity of agency costs of debt are higher. Collectively, our results contribute to our understanding of the role of accounting conservatism in debt contracting and show how debt maturity, a key and pervasive feature of creditor protection in debt contracting, affects accounting conservatism.     

Investment Dynamics and Earnings‐Return Properties: A Structural Approach

We propose the standard neoclassical model of investment under uncertainty with short‐run adjustment frictions as a benchmark for earnings‐return patterns absent accounting influences. We show that our proposed benchmark generates a wide range of earnings‐return patterns documented in accounting research. Notably, our model generates a concave earnings‐return relation, similar to that of Basu [1997], and predicts that the earnings‐return concavity increases with the volatility of firms’ underlying shock processes and decreases with the level of firms’ investments. We find strong empirical support for these predictions. Overall, our evidence suggests that our proposed benchmark is useful for understanding the joint dynamics of variables of interest to accounting research (e.g., earnings, returns, investment, market‐to‐book) absent accounting influences, a necessary precondition for inferring the effects of accounting from these dynamics.     

Accounting Conservatism: A Literature Review

Accounting conservatism is one of the most important properties of financial reporting. The goal of this article is to gain a better understanding of accounting conservatism. We explicate the evolution of conservatism over its long history. Accounting conservatism is indispensable because the main parties of a firm demand conservatism to mitigate agency costs. Various methods are used to measure accounting conservatism, which include balance sheet measures, income statement measures and earnings/stock return relation measures. Empirical research into accounting conservatism has flourished over the last two decades and we focus on the cross‐sectional and time‐series variations in conservatism. We conclude that accounting conservatism is important and cannot be excluded from accounting standards.     

Earnings Components,Accounting Bias and Equity Valuation

In this paper we address three issues in accounting-based equity valuation: (i) How are valuation parameters related to earnings persistence and accounting conservatism when earnings components aggregate, or “add up”, in valuation? (ii) What does aggregation of earnings components in valuation imply for abnormal earnings dynamics? and (iii) When is an earnings component “irrelevant” and “core”?earnings the relevant construct for valuation? Assuming linear valuation, no-arbitrage, dividend irrelevance and clean surplus accounting, we show that when earnings components aggregate, valuation expressions and abnormal earnings dynamics are generalizations of the Ohlson (1995) model, incorporating simple adjustments for accounting conservatism. When “core” earnings are the relevant earnings construct, valuation expressions closely resemble the aggregation case, but core (abnormal) earnings replaces clean surplus (abnormal) earnings. We demonstrate that an earnings component can be irrelevant in valuation even when it is predictable.     

An empirical assessment of the residual income valuation model

This paper provides an empirical assessment of the residual income valuation model proposed in Ohlson (Ohlson, J.A., 1995. Earnings, book values and dividends in security valuation. Contemporary Accounting Research 11, 661–687). We point out that existing empirical research relying on Ohlson's model is similar to past research relying explicitly on the dividend-discounting model. We establish that the key original empirical implications of Ohlson's model stem from the information dynamics that link current information to future residual income. Our empirical results generally support Ohlson's information dynamics. However, we find that our empirical implementation of Ohlson's model provides only minor improvements over existing attempts to implement the dividend-discounting model by capitalizing short-term earnings' forecasts in perpetuity.     

Relative Valuation with Machine Learning

We use machine learning for relative valuation and peer firm selection. In out-of-sample tests, our machine learning models substantially outperform traditional models in valuation accuracy. This outperformance persists over time and holds across different types of firms. The valuations produced by machine learning models behave like fundamental values. Overvalued stocks decrease in price and undervalued stocks increase in price in the following month. Determinants of valuation multiples identified by machine learning models are consistent with theoretical predictions derived from a discounted cash flow approach. Profitability ratios, growth measures, and efficiency ratios are the most important value drivers throughout our sample period. We derive a novel method to express valuation multiples predicted by our machine learning models as weighted averages of peer firm multiples. These weights are a measure of peer–firm comparability and can be used for selecting peer-groups.     

Corporate Lobbying,Visibility and Accounting Conservatism

In this study, we examine the relationship between a firm's lobbying activities and financial reporting quality using a US setting where public scrutiny of corporate political activities is high. More importantly, we examine whether and how a firm's visibility shapes the relationship between its corporate lobbying activities and accounting conservatism. Adopting annual lobbying expenditure data to measure firms’ lobbying activities, and using a propensity‐score‐matching methodology to control for differences in firm characteristics between lobbying and non‐lobbying firms, we find a positive relationship between a firm's lobbying intensity and the degree of accounting conservatism in its financial reporting. We further find this positive relationship to be more pronounced in lobbying firms with a higher level of visibility. These results are robust after controlling for a firm's political connections, across various conditional conservatism measures, and across a number of visibility measures including firm size, the number of analysts following the firm, the age of the firm, the number of foreign stock exchanges that the firm is cross‐listed in, and the level of the firm's media coverage. Together, our findings add to the literature on how firms’ political activities shape their accounting practices in general, and accounting conservatism in particular. More importantly, our findings suggest that the heightened public attention paid to political activities in the US yields incentives for firms to be more conservative in their accounting practices.     

On the Relationship of Stewardship and Valuation—An Analytical Viewpoint

Agency theoretical literature in accounting has frequently stressed possible difficulties in pursuing stewardship and valuation usefulness simultaneously. However, recent empirical evidence has revealed a significantly positive correlation between the two objectives. These empirical findings provide support for the IASB/FASB's decision to encompass stewardship in valuation usefulness in their revised conceptual framework. The objective of our paper is to identify factors influencing the stewardship/valuation relationship by using an analytical model. In a Linear Exponential Normal (LEN) setting we focus on the characteristics of an accounting system, in particular relevance, freedom from error and freedom from bias, the latter two according to IASB/FASB being components of representational faithfulness. We show that accounting quality, comprising relevance and freedom from error, has similar effects on valuation and stewardship usefulness. However, we identify conditions under which there is no perfect mapping from stewardship to valuation. Moreover, discretion in the accounting system has different consequences for both objectives as it does not affect valuation usefulness while it entails potentially negative effects on stewardship. Thus, we raise doubts in relation to the standard‐setters' view that stewardship is automatically met by a focus on valuation usefulness.     

What affects accounting conservatism: A corporate governance perspective

This study explores the relationship between accounting conservatism and corporate governance. There are two competing perspectives about the possible relationship. One is that the demand for conservatism is greater in situations with more agency problems. Therefore, a weaker governance structure will lead to a more conservative accounting. An alternative perspective is that adequate governance results in better monitoring of management and hence will favor the implementation of conservative accounting. Using the firm-year specific C-Score developed by Khan and Watts [Khan, M., Watts, R.L., 2007. Estimation and validation of a firm-year measure of conservatism. Working Paper, Sloan School of Management, MIT, Cambridge], our empirical results indicate that firms with weaker governance structures tend to be more conservative. These findings are consistent with the view that conservatism is a substitute for other corporate governance mechanisms.     

The impact of risk and uncertainty on expected returns

We study asset pricing in economies featuring both risk and uncertainty. In our empirical analysis, we measure risk via return volatility and uncertainty via the degree of disagreement of professional forecasters, attributing different weights to each forecaster. We empirically model the typical risk-return trade-off and augment these models with our measure of uncertainty. We find stronger empirical evidence for an uncertainty-return trade-off than for the traditional risk-return trade-off. Finally, we investigate the performance of a two-factor model with risk and uncertainty in the cross section.     

SECONDARY MORTGAGE MARKET PURCHASE COMMITMENT YIELDS

We provide empirical evidence that quoted secondary market mortgage yields conform to the predictions of option theory. We compare Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac origination yields offered in the secondary market from 1985 to 2003 with the predictions of a two‐state binomial mortgage option valuation model. Our two‐state approach considers a mean‐reverting interest rate process as well as a stochastic housing price. Using predictions from option simulations, we find strong links between market practice and mortgage option prepayment and default factors over time. We also find cross‐sectional differences that are consistent with the institutional structure of the markets.     

Volatility spillovers between oil prices and the stock market under structural breaks

This paper employs univariate and bivariate GARCH models to examine the volatility of oil prices and US stock market prices incorporating structural breaks using daily data from July 1, 1996 to June 30, 2013. We endogenously detect structural breaks using an iterated algorithm and incorporate this information in GARCH models to correctly estimate the volatility dynamics. We find no volatility spillover between oil prices and US stock market when structural breaks in variance are ignored in the model. However, after accounting for structural breaks in the model, we find strong volatility spillover between the two markets. We compute optimal portfolio weights and dynamic risk minimizing hedge ratios to highlight the significance of our empirical results which underscores the serious consequences of ignoring these structural breaks. Our findings are consistent with the notion of cross-market hedging and sharing of common information by financial market participants in these markets.     

The Ability of Earnings to Predict Future Operating Cash Flows Has Been Increasing—Not Decreasing

We investigate the relationship between earnings and one‐year‐ahead operating cash flows from 1973 to 2000. Although the extant research indicates a weakening relationship between contemporaneous earnings and stock prices over time, we find that the relationship between current earnings and future operating cash flows has increased over time. This result holds for numerous divisions of our sample. Out‐of‐sample predictions of operating cash flows generally show increasing forecast accuracy over time. Increasing accounting conservatism appears to play a role in this phenomenon.     

Accounting conservatism and corporate social responsibility

In this paper, we examine whether a firm's stakeholder orientation, as manifested by its social responsibility endeavors, matters for its choice of accounting conservatism. We find that the level of conservatism in financial reporting significantly increases with socially responsible activities. This result is robust to several conservatism aspects, including market-based conservatism measure, the aggregate of R&D reserves, advertising reserves, and LIFO reserves, and accrual-based conservatism construct. Moreover, our two-stage regression results validate that conservatism is more pronounced for firms that devote more resources to social responsibility programs. Consistent with stakeholder theory, these findings indicate that CSR-oriented firms are more likely to use accounting conservatism to credibly commit to acting in the interests of stakeholders. As a whole, our results provide a novel implication that the extent of accounting conservatism can be entailed by a firm's efforts to enhance stakeholder relations.     

An Analysis of Concepts and Evidence on the Question of Whether IFRS Should be Conservative

Do international accounting standards require conservative accounting? The IASB's conceptual framework suggests that they should not, while the research literature is largely silent on the matter, typically presuming conservatism to be an outcome of private contracting rather than standardized, public, general purpose financial reporting. In this paper, we analyze the actual requirements of IFRS. We find multiple examples of recognition requirements that lead to unconditional conservatism, measurement requirements that lead to conditional conservatism, and also presentation/disclosure requirements that further support a conservative reporting environment. These findings complement, support and deepen existing evidence in the empirical literature that accounting is in practice conservative. We show, however, that the requirements for conservatism in IFRS conflict with, first, the IASB's stated position in its conceptual framework that accounting should not be conservative and, second, the private contracting explanation for conservatism that is generally accepted in the literature. What is missing, and lies behind both conflicts, is an acknowledgement and understanding of the role of an agency/contracting perspective in enhancing the decision‐usefulness of general purpose accounting standards, given the information/incentive asymmetry and uncertainty that characterizes the real‐world context in which those standards operate. From a policy perspective, such an understanding would reconcile the IASB's conceptual framework with the actual requirements of IFRS. From a research literature perspective, such an understanding would re‐position accounting standards as central to the practice of accounting conservatism, which would in turn require revision to the generally accepted theory of a private contracting explanation for the empirical evidence of conservative accounting practice.