Delphi,political philosophy and the future

Based on the Delphi technique, the project described in this article seeks to integrate the teaching of classical political science with the analysis of problems facing contemporary and future society. Experts on particular political philosophers of the past were asked to imagine how those men would have viewed and solved present political problems, and thus to use their knowledge to develop a new approach to policy analysis.     

Delphi in a future scenario study on mental health and mental health care

The article highlights methodological issues of futures research on mental health (care). In particular the limited relevance of quantitative psychiatric epidemiology is emphasized. The mental health sector in the Netherlands is characterized as a balance of power between professionals, institutions, insurance companies, patient organizations and local and national governments. To value shifts in this balance and to assess future interventions and policies, opinions of people who know the sector well are indispensable. Delphi with its main characteristics of anonymity, iteration and feedback to the participants and being a predominantly qualitative method for data collection was chosen to gather this type of information. Finally the Delphi method as a tool in policy-oriented futures research is discussed. The strength of Delphi must be found in its capacity to generate new options for intervention and to enhance consciousness of the future in order to reinforce rationality of decision processes. Clarifying dissensus on the issues under study proved to be as relevant as the elucidation of consensus.     

The future of foresight professionals: Results from a global Delphi study

How will foresight practice evolve into the next decade and beyond? How might its supply and demand factors self-organize? In 2012 a real-time Delphi study, entitled, “The Certification of Professional Futurists 2030,” was conducted among 142 experts from 29 countries to debate the forces that might diminish or enhance futures work. The study consisted of 14 projections out to the year 2030, ranging from whether the global futures field might “employ a viable form of certification for professional futurists,” to whether it might “share a common accepted understanding of futures assumptions, theory, methods, knowledge, and ethics.” Panelists identified themselves with various futures associations. This article presents the findings, including where there is dissent and consensus in the futures field over the likelihood, impact and desirability of the professionalization of its practice. Further scale development using factor analysis, ordered by the theory of competitive advantage, produced a scenario model of three market forces: assimilation, academicisation, or certification. The third force of professional certification by 2030 was deemed least likely and less desirable. This wide ranging survey therefore offers the futures field a common conversation protocol to rethink how it might redesign its value chain and differentiate itself against other professions.     

Plato and Delphi

Plato had an unparalleled influence on political and utopian thought through his Republic. Recently, Professor Clarke has emphasised the “Primacy of Plato” for the literature of the ideal state.¹ Some qualifications are offered here to Clarke's appraisal of Plato. These qualifications bear upon his characterisation of Plato's “extraordinary social insights and his exceptional power of thought”. They should be of particular interest to the futures researcher, as they are related to Delphi.     

A critical realist image of the future Wendell Bell's contribution to the foundations of futures studies

Wendell Bell's contribution to the foundations of futures studies grows out of his concern that fashionable philosophies of the day could undermine the very idea of a respectable, viable futures studies discipline. As his concept of “image of the future” is an effort to counter the positivist intellectual constraints on futurology, so his support of “critical realism” is part of an effort to counter the equally questionable move towards “the nihilism and relativism of postmodernist post-positivism”. Both theoretically and philosophically, Bell aims to create and keep a balance, a middle ground between extremes, trying to stabilize the still volatile foundations of futures studies. His effort is one of a founder in the most robust sense of the term. In his endeavor, Bell went beyond the rhetoric of asserting the promise of a new discipline and advertising its merits. He invested into the less glamorous but crucial effort of building the epistemological and conceptual bases able to sustain an entire intellectual edifice.     

Assessing the validity of the Delphi technique

Forecasting is an essential factor in policy formulation and planning. It helps determine the direction of future actions. While a number of forecasting techniques are utilized to forecast the future, it is important to know just how valid those forecasting techniques can be. The Delphi technique has been called the ‘cornerstone of futures research’. This study reports the results of the assessment of the accuracy of the forecasts derived from the Delphi technique. Twenty-five experts in the communication field assessed 24 trends and 17 events in the state of Hawaii as of 1991. The expert assessments were then compared with the forecasts made by utilizing the Delphi technique 16 years earlier. The results showed that the trend forecasts were significantly correlated with the trend assessment. They also showed that the Delphi technique had accurately forecast approximately half the events that could be evaluated as of 1991. Results from this study lend support to the use of the Delphi technique in long-range forecasting and reveal some interesting findings in forecasting the developments in communication in Hawaii.     

Delphi in the assessment of research and development projects

Used as a means of communication between specialists of different backgrounds concerned with the same r and d project, the Delphi technique allows one to establish the typology of the opinions of sub-groups within the panel; this is often more interesting than simply determining the consensus to which the method generally leads. Factorial analysis treatment of the results of a Delphi study undertaken in 1970–1971 about the prospects for artificial hearts gives an example of such a typology and leads to a definition of some of the less known characteristics of the method : the dynamic character of opinion interaction and not simply the convergence of dissenting viewpoints and the substitution of the individual's logical consistency and coherence by that of the group. As a means of dialogue between decision maker and research specialists, the method favours free circulation and focusing of opinions and motivations towards building the future in a certain way.     

Learning from young people’s image of the future: a case study in Taiwan and the US

An image of the future that an individual holds determines what attitude he/she holds towards the future and how he/she behaves in the present. These in turn would increase the probability to make the image realized as imagined in the future. As young people will be the builders of a society in the future, investigating their images of the future has significant implications for the future. With a survey of two groups of university students in Taiwan and the U.S., this study looked into various aspects of images, explored message sources influencing the formation of the images, identified values embedded in the images, and explored the relationship between the images and the students’ understanding of the present.     

The Delphi technique and the forecasting of specific fringe benefits

The value of the Delphi technique is its ability to forecast the possible occurrence of events in the future. In 1981, a follow-up study was completed of an original Delphi study that was conducted in 1976. The basis of the 1981 study was to check the accuracy of the forecast made by school professionals on the future of specific fringe benefits in public education.     

Politicians and the future

Politicians have a part to play, a part not of their own choosing. Their actions or motives are not determined by their own views of the future. Thus a gulf exists between politicians and forecasters. For the politician, a forecast that is wrong is irrelevant; and a forecast that is right is superfluous.     

构建Delphi与Informix的集成开发环境

Delphi是开发数据库前端的优秀工具,它以简洁明快的编程语言、功能强大的组件和灵活方便的编程环境受到业界的青睐。采用Delphi开发数据库应用程序具有较强的灵活性和可扩展性,而InformixOnline数据库因具有高可靠性、支持数据完整性定义等特点在金融系统也被广泛应用。采用Del     

Beyond postnormal times: The future of creativity and the creativity of the future

Creativity and imagination are the most important ingredients for coping with post-normal times, according to Sardar. This paper looks at the way creativity itself is being transformed in the West, from the individualistic/atomistic view of Modernity towards a more contextual, collaborative, complex approach. It explores the potential and possibilities for this more participatory creativity to help go beyond the “crisis of the future,” and argues that the centrality of creativity must go beyond the mythology of genius and inspiration to inform philosophy, ethics, and action. Philosophical reflection and the imagination of desirable futures can emerge from a creative ethic that stresses the value of generative interactions and contexts that support creativity.