Concentration of world banking and the role of U.S. banks among the 100 largest, 1956–1980

During the past two decades, international banking activity has grown rapidly. With institutional change of such magnitude taking place, it is interesting and potentially useful to look at the nature of the change. This paper examines two dimensions of this change: the trend in concentration of banking assets in the world's largest banks, and the relative position of banks from various countries among the world's largest banks. The data indicate that the percentage of banking deposits accounted for by the world's largest banks generally has increased steadily since 1956. The data also reveal that the importance of U.S. banks within the world's largest banks has declined dramatically since 1956. It is suggested that this trend is the result of the readjustment to the distortions of WWII, the rise of the commercial paper market in the U.S., and the large number of U.S. banks compared to other countries.     

Energy and habitat: Designing a sustainable urban ecosystem

As the world's cities grow so new ways of satisfying their demands for food and fuel resources will have to be found, especially in the third world where total fuel demands are expected to expand several fold in one generation. An ecological model for a future complex urban community is presented to illustrate the place of energy in a growing system and how habitat—the physical component—possesses life cycles interdependent with living species. Recycling, biomass fuels, telecommunications, marine living and the propagation of viable organizations are all elements that will enable the globe to sustain future expanding metropolises.     

American dreams,American imperatives

In this article I.F. Clarke continues his theme that the special nature of life in the American colonies inevitably led to an extra-European view of society. That can in general be called a composite idea—individuality, liberty, freedom, and great opportunities—and it appealed to many Europeans who saw in the USA a hope for the future and a model for imitation. It is reported that when some of Robert Owen's contingent crossed the Atlantic to New Harmony, they celebrated their approach to New York with a song composed by one of the party. ‘Land of the West! we come to thee,’ they sang. ‘ Sick of the old world's sophistry’, they went on. Today, only the well-off can sail into New York, usually on the QE2, and they do not usually sing as they sail.     

World betas, consumption growth, and financial integration

We define a country’s beta as the covariance of domestic consumption growth with world consumption growth scaled by the world’s variance. Beta is related to a country’s risk-taking position in models of international financial integration. Empirically, we find that an increase in beta leads to an increase in average consumption growth. This beta-growth relationship is present only among countries with high levels of financial openness, and is absent among the rest. However, we cannot fully discard the presence of non-financial factors (e.g., trade openness) as determinants of the beta-growth relationship.     

Recent trends in international banking

The paper defines ‘international banking’ more as a geographical expression than as a particular type of activity and points out that the internationalization of the world's major banking systems was in many cases an evolutionary phenomenon governed by market or institutional developments. It analyses both the development of international banking structures, stressing the process that brought banks to prefer international retail activity rather than wholesale, and the relationship between domestic and international banking. Finally, the paper deals with the not easy to resolve problem of the establishment of lender of last resort facilities in international banking.     

The consumption based asset pricing model: A note on potential tests and applications

Breeden's demonstration that Merton's multi-beta capital asset pricing model can be collapsed into a single-beta model where betas are computed with respect to aggregate consumption is an important theoretical advance. Nonetheless, Breeden's model retains many of the empirical problems that beset Merton's earlier version. In general the consumption betas will be nonstationary, so that the state variables must be observable for the model to be estimated.     

An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities

This paper derives a single-beta asset pricing model in a multi-good, continuous-time model with uncertain consumption-goods prices and uncertain investment opportunities. When no riskless asset exists, a zero-beta pricing model is derived. Asset betas are measured relative to changes in the aggregate real consumption rate, rather than relative to the market. In a single-good model, an individual's asset portfolio results in an optimal consumption rate that has the maximum possible correlation with changes in aggregate consumption. If the capital markets are unconstrained Pareto-optimal, then changes in all individuals' optimal consumption rates are shown to be perfectly correlated.     

Political risk forecasting

There is a lull permeating the political risk industry after an initial surge of interest in the late 1970s. This article explores the business world's possible scepticism with the concepts, theories and methods of political risk analysis, examines the relative strengths and weaknesses of approaches to political risk forecasting, and suggests ways in which companies can themselves take control of the risk assessment process. It is concluded that no single method is satisfactory, and that data from both subjective and objective sources need to be integrated for political risk assessment to become more effective.     

Ultimate confusion: The economics of Julian Simon

This article argues that there are profound mistakes and exaggerations in Simon's influential and popular ideas. It discusses Simon's denial of resource finitude and his views that neither ecology nor entropy exists. Finally it looks at Simon's The Resourceful Earth as an attack on Global 2000.     

Planning for tourism: Research needs in a growth industry

Will tourism become the world's largest single industry by the year 2000? Although business travel is determined mainly by the economic climate, the volume of pleasure travel is influenced by a range of factors: to clarify and quantify their effects, further research is necessary. Despite the current low level of tourism promotion, most people regard holidays as necessary. As working hours decrease, tourism will increase. Energy shortages will probably result in ‘organised’ rather than individual tourism. The redistribution of tourist flows from traditional destinations to the less developed countries is likely to occur. Government involvement may increase, particularly if the social role of tourism is recognised.     

Time preference and capital asset pricing models

Results of the theory of individual optimal consumption-investment choice under uncertainty are extended to a class of intertemporally dependent preferences for consumption streams. These results are then used to show that with intertemporally dependent preferences, which are more realistic than the separable time-additive preference structure, Merton's (1973) multi-beta intertemporal capital asset pricing model is still valid, but it can no longer be collapsed to Breeden's (1979) single consumption-beta model.     

Consumption correlatedness and risk measurement in economies with non-traded assets and heterogeneous information

A technique is presented for deriving equilibrium models of asset risk premia in continuous time models which does not require the complete solution of a consumer's continuous time stochastic control problem. The technique is used to show that even if traders have heterogeneous information about asset returns and/or there are non-traded assets, then the risk premium of a traded asset is determined by the covariance between the asset's return and the rate of change in per capita consumption. We only require the assumption that traders' consumptions and traded asset values form an Ito process.     

Trends in the chemical industry

In March 1970, Futures published an analysis of the major trends affecting the chemical industry's general structure and an assessment of its future operations and market potential. Although the authors score highly for the correct identification of trends within the chemical industry itself—apart from seeing a trend towards even bigger chemical complexes—they assumed a continuing development of major postwar social, political and economic trends in the industry's environment. The major shifts which occurred in the 1970s served to undermine the basic assumptions on which the authors' projections were made.     

Optimum consumption and portfolio rules with money as an asset

This article generalizes Merton's optimum consumption and portfolio rules in continuous time by introducing money as a capital asset and allowing for uncertain inflation. Assuming that prices are log-normally distributed, a three-funds theorem is derived and the introduction of money is shown not to change the form of the standard inflation-adjusted CAPM but to change the market price of risk. The individual's consumption-portfolio problem is completely solved under uncertain inflation if his utility function is iso-elastic in its arguments. Comparative statics are used to assess the influence of changes in exogenous parameters on the individual's optimal rules.     

Post-Industrial Society: The myth of the service economy

There is a popular view of the current pattern of change in developed societies, a view typified by Daniel Bell's The Coming of Post-Industrial Society, that recent economic growth has been increasingly concentrated in the collective provision of services rather than in individual consumption of material goods, and that this change of economic focus from goods to services is a trend which will continue into the future. The author argues, using UK data, that the trend is in fact away from the expenditure on services and towards expenditure on goods. The growing employment in the tertiary sector, previously used as an indicator of the growth of the service economy, emerges here as a manifestation of the division of labour—a process which increases the efficiency of production of material goods—while the final production of services, using automatic machinery and “direct labour”, will increasingly take place in the home.     

Bank acquisition of mortgage firms and stockholders' wealth: An empirical analysis

This paper examines the behavior of the returns on the securities of bank holding companies (BHCs) acquiring mortgage firms after the announcement of such an acquisition and the release of the Federal Reserve Board's decision. The stockholders of acquiring BHCs do not realize abnormal returns following the announcement of the acquisition of a mortgage firm. This reconfirms previous findings in unregulated industries and is consisten with the hypothesis that any economic rent which is generated by such an acquisition is captured by the acquired mortgage firm: This implies that there exist BHCs — other than the acquiring one — that could also affect a profitable merger with the mortgage firm. Another finding is that stockholders of BHCs that were 3enied permission to acquire mortgage firms sustained significant losses during the five weeks following the Board's decision.     

Long waves,inventions, and innovations

It is argued that aggregate R and D and patenting activity, while generally less volatile than short term economic activity, is more closely related to the latter in the longer term. Second, ‘fundamental’ or ‘basic’ inventions exhibit a clustering behaviour, although there appears to be no clear-cut relationship with the overall level of economic activity. Third, we find no support for Mensch's argument that lead times between invention and innovation contracted in the 1930s. Fourth, we find some evidence for a bunching of innovations in the 1930s, but this does not appear due to depression-induced acceleration. Fifth, in the particular case of plastics, where the 1930s clustering is particularly clear, the forces at work were primarily related to ‘science push’ and the particular requirements of the German economy.     

Future cities in a warming world

More than half the global population are already urban, and the UN and other organisations expect this share to rise in future. However, some researchers argue that the future of cities is far from assured. Cities are not only responsible for 70% or more of the world's CO₂ emissions, but because of their dense concentration of physical assets and populations, are also more vulnerable than other areas to climate change. This paper attempts to resolve this controversy by first looking at how cities would fare in a world with average global surface temperatures 4 °C above pre-industrial levels. It then looks at possible responses, either by mitigation or adaptation, to the threat such increases would entail. Regardless of the mix of adaptation and mitigation cities adopt in response to climate change, the paper argues that peak urbanism will occur over the next few decades. This fall in the urban share of global population will be driven by the rise in biophysical hazards in cities if the response is mainly adaptation, and by the declining attraction of cities (and possibly the rising attraction of rural areas) if serious mitigation is implemented.     

Money,income, and sunspots: Measuring economic relationships and the effects of differencing

This paper discusses the question of whether economic time series regression models should be estimated between the levels or the changes of the variables of interest. We argue that many economic models should be estimated between the changes of the variables, rather than the levels of the variables. In addition, comparisons of the levels and changes regressions can be used as a crude test of model specification. These issues are illustrated with examples from Friedman and Meiselman's (1963) study of annual income and consumption and with data on sunspot activity from 1897–1958.     

The government budget constraint and standard macrotheory

Christ, Blinder-Solow, Brunner-Meltzer and others have discussed the implications of deficits raising the public's stock of bonds or money. Among the major findings of this literature are that bond-financed deficits may raise income more than money-financed deficits, that the former may lead to instability, and that open market purchases ultimately lower nominal income. This paper shows that these seemingly revolutionary results (though not all of the results of this literature) follow simply from a textbook Keynesian or monetarist model. However, Blinder and Solow's conclusion that crowding-out cannot be complete is refuted.