金融市场和金融政策(下)——我国金融体制改革中存在的问题

中国金融体制改革中，金融改革是滞后的，不彻底的。为什么是滞后呢？我们对银行金融领域好多传统观念都是错误的，在计划经济时代完全把银行当做政府机关，不管是中央银行还是商业银行，从列宁开始，认为银行是政府的特殊机关，如果再追溯到前面，1871年巴黎公社失败的很重要的原因，就是没有把法兰西银行收归国有，而是把法兰西银行当做一种企业，法兰西银行能够用财政支持凡尔赛政府，马克思认为无产阶级取得政权后应该把银行收归国有。所以列宁十月革命后就把银行收归国有，把银行作为国家机关。     

交易效率、迂回生产与资本市场形成：超边际一般均衡分析

引入"里昂惕夫"生产技术,建立一个超边际-新兴古典一般均衡模型,分析交易效率对最终品的迂回生产结构的影响,以揭示资本市场形成的微观机制.研究显示,随着资本品和最终品的综合交易效率相对于生产者自用资本品的效率的充分改进,资本市场将出现在分工结构中,并对最终品市场产生促进作用;而资本品和最终品的交易效率对经济增长具有交互的正效应.从模型中得出的一项政策含义是:经济增长有赖于更大程度地改进资本市场和产品市场的交易效率.     

Equilibrium with endogenous technological changes: Theory and applications

In this paper we use a continuous-time general equilibrium model to analyze the problem of evaluating new irreversible investment opportunities that take the form of technological changes. Being a new technology, by definition, not perfectly correlated with the existing ones, the traditional spanning assumption invoked by the Real Option literature is not applicable in this context and a general equilibrium approach provides a more suitable framework. We analyze the problem of optimal consumption and investment of the representative individual in the context of the Cox Ingersoll and Ross (1895) model. We characterize the solution of the model under different assumptions about the utility function of the representative individual and about the parameters describing the technologies in the economy. A major result obtained from the model is the possibility of jumps in the equilibrium rate of return at the time in which technological changes are implemented. This is particularly interesting considering the fact that such jumps are obtained endogenously from the solution of the optimization problem and not imposed by “ad hoc” assumptions on the evolution of some variables.

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Riassunto Un modello di equilibrio economico generale in tempo continuo è utilizzato per analizzare il problema di valutare una nuova, irreversibile, opportunità di investimento che si presenta sotto forma di innovazione tecnologica. Essendo, per definizione, la nuova tecnologia non perfettamente correlata con le tecnologie esistenti, la letteratura delle “opzioni reali” non è applicabile ed un modello di equilibrio economico generale fornisce un ambiente più adatto allo studio del problema. Facendo uso del modello di Cox Ingersoll and Ross (1985) si fornisce una soluzione sotto diverse ipotesi riguardanti la struttura delle preferenze e la natura dell'innovazione tecnologica. Un interessante risultato è la derivazione di possibili discontinuità nel tasso di interesse di equilibrio in corrispondenza dell'adozione della nuova tecnologia.

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I would like to express my gratitude to Vasant Naik, David Peterson, Raman Uppal and especially Burton Hollifield and Tan Wang for helpful discussions and suggestions.     

Equilibrium models with land: A criticism and an alternative

Models of economies either of urban areas or with local public goods often involve the use of a continuum of consumers along with the use of a commodity called land; each consumer generally owns a parcel of land of positive area. The purpose of the present study is to show that such models are internally inconsistent (independent of the other assumptions employed) in that only countably many consumers can own parcels of land of non-zero area if land lies in a Euclidean space. This result applies, in particular, to monocentric city models. Moreover, it is shown that the standard justification for the use of economies with an infinity of agents, that they approximate large economies with a finite number of consumers, does not necessarily apply in the case of economies with land and a continuum of consumers. A model where land is represented by subsets of $\text{R}$² is presented as an alternative.     

Regulatory risk, market uncertainties, and firm financing choices: Evidence from U.S. Electricity Market Restructuring

Based on the universe of rate-regulated electric utilities in the U.S., we examine why firms alter their financing decisions when transitioning from a regulated to a competitive market regime. We find that the significant increase in regulatory risk after the passage of the Energy Policy Act, state-level restructuring legislations, and divestiture policies have reduced leverage by 15 percent. Policies that encouraged competition, and hence increased market uncertainty, lowered leverage by another 13 percent on average. The ability to exercise market power allowed some firms to counter this competitive threat. In aggregate, regulatory risk and market uncertainty variables reduce leverage between 24.6 and 26.7 percent. We also confirm findings in the literature that firms with higher profitability and higher asset growth have lower leverage, and those with more tangible assets are more levered. Firms with greater access to internal capital markets and those with a footloose customer segment use less debt, while those actively involved in trading power in the wholesale market use more debt.     

社区(村镇)与政府间的区域生态利益博弈与均衡选择

社区(村镇)与政府是区域生态系统的重要利益相关者。社区(村镇)居民、基层干部、社区(村镇)精英等构成社区(村镇)的利益主体集合;政府官员、政府部门、政府组织整体等构成政府利益主体集合,二者表现出特定的利益诉求目标和行为取向特征。具有自治功能的社区(村镇)是毗邻区域生态系统发展的基础平台,是政府提供区域生态公共服务的功能依托。社区(村镇)发展区域生态系统既依靠居民(个体)的力量,又依靠政府推动。政府与社区(村镇)间区域生态利益博弈的基本方式在于合作,基本过程在于讨价还价。政府与社区(村镇)间区域生态利益博弈的均衡,需要高度关注其间利益诉求关系的辩证统一和平等互动;努力促进其间利益诉求互动的分工合作;充分利用其间利益诉求关系的协商互助;树立科学和谐的社区(村镇)区域生态利益发展观;建立政府与社区(村镇)间区域生态利益行为互动网络。     

Equilibrium exchange rates in South Eastern Europe,Russia, Ukraine and Turkey: Healthy or (Dutch) diseased?

This paper investigates the equilibrium exchange rates of three South Eastern European countries (Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania), of two CIS economies (Russia and Ukraine) and of Turkey. A systematic approach in terms of different time horizons at which the equilibrium exchange rate is assessed is conducted, combined with a careful analysis of country-specific factors. For Russia, a first look is taken at the Dutch disease phenomenon as a possible driving force behind equilibrium exchange rates. A unified framework including productivity and net foreign assets completed with a set of control variables such as openness, public debt and public expenditures is used to compute total real misalignment bands.     

"看不见的手--市场"[1]与"看得见的手--管理"[2]是制造业国企走出困境的出路

本文藉经济学家亚当·斯密提出的"看不见的手--市场"和管理史学家艾尔弗德·钱德勒提出的"看得见的手--管理"的理念阐述中国制造业国有企业走出困境的路径选择.     

Market analysis with rational expectations: Theory and estimation

In a dynamic market structure the rational expectations hypothesis implies the existence of a ‘fixed point’ or‘equilibrium’ price sequence. For a prototype market structure we develop the This approach displays the relationships between exogenous structure, expectations, and behavior. The resulting framework suggests effective estimation procedures and clarifies analysis. Results for an application are presented and discussed.     

Negative Incentives and Regulatory Capture: Noncompliance with Price Ceilings on Essential Medicines in India

Nonmarket scholars have paid limited attention to noncompliance as an alternative strategy to capture regulators; yet noncompliance is particularly consequential given its potentially significant negative externalities. We exploit rich data on price ceilings introduced in India in 2013 on 255 essential medicines to test whether noncompliance by other firms drives the focal firm's noncompliance decision. Our results indicate that noncompliance by other firms, particularly those with larger products in the market, is positively associated with a focal firm's noncompliance. The focal firm's scope and sales positively moderate this relationship. Overall, our study indicates that firms are more likely conclude that the potential benefits of regulatory capture using negative incentives outweigh the potential financial and social costs in the presence of a greater number of firms that are already noncompliant. As such, our study draws attention to negative incentives as an important yet largely overlooked nonmarket strategy.     

Firm Experience and Market Entry by Venture Capital Firms (1962–2004)

In this paper, we examine a firm's decision to enter new markets as related to the depth and breadth of its experience and the relative distance of those markets. We situate our discussion and analysis in the context of the venture capital (VC) industry, and examine whether and when US VC firms enter five high‐technology investment markets through first‐ or later‐round investments. This setting allows us to observe both the firms that chose to enter a new market and those that did not, and analyse the antecedents of these decisions. We find that VC firms overall are less likely to enter distant markets; those with broader experience are more likely to make first‐round entries. In addition, VC firms with deeper investment experience are more likely to make first‐round entries in proximate markets and less likely to enter distant markets and make later‐round entries. These results offer interesting implications for the literature on organizational learning and entrepreneurship.     

Job Insecurity and Labour Market Lemons: The (Mis)Management of Redundancy in Steel Making,Coal Mining and Port Transport

Redundancy provisions in Britain have failed to promote organizational regeneration or labour mobility from declining to expanding firms/industries. On the contrary, as human resources are wantonly discarded through the (mis)management of redundancy, job security and X-efficiency in the internal labour market has been severely eroded. In external labour markets, many redundant workers, the so-called `lemons' of the labour market, are consigned to long-term unemployment because employers are wary of hiring a worker that another firm does not want. These deleterious outcomes are elaborated through detailed case studies from steel-making, coal-mining and port transport, where mass redundancy has proved instrumental in the process of industrial restructuring. In order to re-establish trust and security in the internal labour market, alternative methods of managing changing labour market requirements, based on reconversion rather than redundancy, are considered in the concluding section.     

Emerging (internet) industry and agglomeration: Internet entrepreneurs coping with uncertainty

Emerging industries are not rare elements in the economy; rather, they constitute a permanent feature in constantly developing and changing economic environments. However, the emergence of new industries is rarely painless or particularly straightforward processes; actors involved in these processes are confronted with uncertainties of which some are exclusive to emerging industries. A distinctive example of these processes was the emergence of the internet industry in Sweden and the agglomeration of internet firms in central Stockholm. Through three levels of uncertainty: (1) the newness of the technology introduced to the public and the emerging markets; (2) the process of developing new markets and approaching new customers and (3) the renegotiating of pre-existing structures and flexible ways of organizing work and labour, this article argues that agglomerations or local urban milieus play a crucial role to actors (internet entrepreneurs) coping with uncertainty. Agglomerations or urban milieus compose a necessary infrastructure for (1) negotiating industrial legitimacy, and thus establishing structures and procedures in the emerging industry; (2) discovering market opportunities and (3) informal relations necessary in making flexible labour markets efficient.     

Climate Change Policies and Tax Recycling Schemes: Simulations with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of the Italian Economy

A dynamic general equilibrium model of the Italian economy is used to assess the impact of carbon taxation (or auctioned carbon permits), where additional revenue is used to cut either existing taxes on labor or on capital income. Simulation results do not support the existence of the so-called "double dividend" when labor taxes are reduced, whereas lower tax rates on capital have mild positive effects on growth and welfare, with progressivity properties on income distribution. These findings hinge on the assumptions of open economy, given world interest rate, and capital mobility.     

Experimenting with Supply Chain Learning (SCL): Supplier Diversity and Ethnic Minority Businesses

This paper reports on an innovative UK-based ‘Supply Chain Learning’ (SCL) initiative to encourage the corporate sector to consider supplier diversity in respect of ethnic minority businesses. This follows academic and policy interest in programmes to empower ethnic minority enterprises to achieve breakout to mainstream markets and business growth. The first phase of the initiative, entitled Supplier Development East Midlands (SDEM) is examined. By adopting an inter-organisational action learning approach, some of the key attributes of the programme are delineated, focusing on the recurrent action-reflection cycle taking place in a learning group comprising SDEM, LPOs (Large Purchasing Organisations) and small EMSs (Ethnic Minority Suppliers).     

IAMOT and Education: Defining a Technology and Innovation Management (TIM) Body-of-Knowledge (BoK) for graduate education (TIM BoK)

Whether it is called Management of Technology and Innovation (MOTI), Management of Technology (MOT), Engineering Technology Management (ETM) or Technology and Innovation Management (TIM), the TIM field is rapidly growing and diverse. This diversity is built upon disparate university locations of TIM programs; TIM’s emerging nature, its wide appeal as well as unique researcher and practitioner viewpoints. This has created a plethora of education materials, benchmark programs and pedagogical thought. Yet the field is growing so rapidly that no single source has yet been established which clearly identifies which topics and educational materials represents its basic Body of Knowledge (BoK). If this is so, then there is cause for concern.We review TIM pedagogy studies, TIM research, and the economic realities that initiated and continue to demand TIM education for managers. We leverage the five-year body of knowledge development activities of the International Association for the Management of Technology (IAMOT) education committee. We then develop a TIM BoK topic list and survey stakeholders that include: academics, industrial professionals and government policy makers. We found that there is a need for and convergence on a comprehensive TIM BoK source. The result is a TIM BoK source document that can be utilized to improve and monitor TIM educational programs around the world.     

GMM with many weak moment conditions: Replication and application of Newey and Windmeijer (2009)

In a recent article Newey and Windmeijer (Generalized method of moments with many weak moment conditions. Econometrica 2009; 77 (3): 687–719) propose a new variance estimator for generalized empirical likelihood. In Monte Carlo examples they show that t‐statistics based on the new variance estimator have nearly correct size. I have replicated their Monte Carlo simulations and in addition used the new variance estimator to re‐estimate Angrist and Krueger's (Does compulsory school attendance affect schooling and earnings? Quarterly Journal of Economics 1991; 106 (4): 979–1014) returns to education. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dark Secrets and Impression Management: Workplace Masks of People with Multiple Sclerosis (MS)

Goffman (1959) described dark secrets as crucial, often stigmatising, facts about an individual that are hidden from others. He also identified impression management as a means of controlling the assessments others make, with passing and covering being identified forms of impression management used by those wanting to hide stigma. Findings from an exploratory phenomenological study conducted in Sydney, Australia, revealed another form of impression management not previously identified: Masking. Masking was used by workers with Multiple Sclerosis (MS) to hide their MS-related experiences even though they had, in each of the cases shared, disclosed that they had MS at their place of work. Respondents presented several workplace “masks” to hide the impacts of having MS: (1) I’m Fine!; (2) I’m Happy!; and, (3) “I’m Better than the Others!”. Masking is suggested to be an unhelpful strategy, for the person doing it and their employer, but the alternative is also problematic. Further research into the phenomenon of masking is recommended.     

(No) Foundations of dominant-strategy mechanisms: a comment on Chung and Ely (2007)

This comment revisits Chung and Ely (Rev Econ Stud 74:447–476, 2007) in which robustly optimal auctions where investigated. Chung and Ely used a maxmin approach to define robust optimality. Chung and Ely provided conditions under which dominant strategy auctions are robustly optimal in their sense. This comment proposes a refinement of Chung and Ely’s criterion and shows that, with this refined criterion, dominant strategy auctions are not optimal if there are at least three bidders. According to the refinement the auctioneer should not choose dominated auctions, that is, auctions for which there exist other mechanisms that never generate lower expected revenue, and sometimes higher expected revenue. We construct such a dominating mechanism for dominant strategy auctions. The construction exploits the possibility of side bets when beliefs are not derived from common priors. Chung and Ely (Rev Econ Stud 74:447–476, 2007) admitted such beliefs.     

红色荧光粉La_2Mo_2O_9:Eu~(3+)的制备及其对白光LED的色温调节作用

文章基于铕掺杂钼酸盐体系,采用高温固相法制备红色荧光粉,探究了掺杂离子、助溶剂、烧结温度等因素的影响,将所得荧光粉与市售黄色荧光粉混合封装LED灯珠,研究表明能够对灯珠的色温起到有效的调节作用。