Structural estimation and solution of international trade models with heterogeneous firms

We present an empirical implementation of a general-equilibrium model of international trade with heterogeneous manufacturing firms. The theory underlying our model is consistent with Melitz (2003). A nonlinear structural estimation procedure identifies a set of core parameters and unobserved firm-level trade frictions that best fit the geographic pattern of trade. Our estimation model is consistent with the specified general equilibrium model, and we conduct general equilibrium counterfactual analyses to illustrate model responses. We first assess the economic effects of reductions in measured tariffs. Taking the simple-average welfare change across regions the Melitz structure indicates welfare gains from liberalization that are four times larger than in a standard trade policy simulation. Furthermore, when we compare the economic impact of tariff reductions with reductions in estimated fixed trade costs we find that policy measures affecting the fixed costs are of greater importance than tariff barriers.     

Overlapping free trade agreements and international trade: A network approach

In our work, we have analysed the effect of the hub‐and‐spoke nature of free trade agreements (FTA s) on trade. Contrary to previous analyses, we have considered the effects of the country's position in the FTA network on the bilateral trade of the hub country. We have conducted an in‐depth analysis of the global network of FTA s, focusing particularly on its evolution in the last 15 years. We have utilised a panel data set covering the period 1960–2010 to investigate the effects of the hub‐and‐spoke on trade. Our results show that the countries that are more connected to FTA s export more than those that are less involved, although not all the partner countries you can connect with are the same. An increase in the number of spokes that have no link between them has, on average, a negative effect on the trade of the hub, which indicates that signing FTA s with every country is not the optimal strategy for increasing trade. However, if we consider the way new FTA s change the relative position of a country, we can see that if new FTA s make the country more central or less constrained in the network, these new agreements have a strongly positive and significant pro‐trade effect.     

浅谈技术性贸易壁垒与中国的国际贸易

在经济全球化，国际贸易日趋激烈化的趋势下，科技日新月异，同时也随之产生了国际贸易中的又一重要手段一技术性贸易壁垒(Technical Barriers to Trade—TBT)。所谓技术性贸易壁垒，是指一国以维护国家安全，或保护人类健康和安全，保护动植物的生命和健康，保护生念环境，或防止欺诈行为，保证产品质量为由，采取一些强制性或非强制性的技术性措施，这     

新兴国际贸易结算方式——国际保理业务

国际保理是为国际贸易赊销方式提供的一种集账务管理、应收账款收取、信用风险担保和贸易资金融通为一体的综合性金融服务。随着国际市场竞争的愈演愈烈，国际保理业务得到了迅猛发展，成为各国出口商加强国际市场竞争力的有效手段。本文分析了保理业务在国际贸易中的作用和优势，并就推动我国国际保理业务的健康发展提出了建议．．     

A theory of the currency denomination of international trade

The currency denomination of international trade has significant macroeconomic and policy implications. In this paper we solve for the optimal invoicing choice by integrating this microeconomic decision at the level of the firm into a general equilibrium open economy model. Strategic interactions between firms play a critical role. We find that the less competition firms face in foreign markets, as reflected in market share and product differentiation, the more likely they will price in their own currency. We also show that when a set of countries forms a monetary union, the new currency is likely to be used more extensively in trade than the sum of the currencies it replaces.     

Investment liberalization and international trade

This paper estimates the cross-price elasticity of exports with respect to investment costs for bilateral relations between 36 countries. We show that the effect of reducing foreign direct investment costs on exports depends on country characteristics and trade costs as predicted by the [Markusen, 1997] and [Markusen, 2002] model. When countries differ in relative factor endowments and trade costs are low, investment liberalization stimulates exports, whereas when countries are similar in terms of relative factor endowments and size, and trade costs are moderate to high, investment liberalization reduces exports.     

Dynamics and objectives of international trade

Standard international trade models universally consider maximizing the availability of inexpensive goods as the objective of international trade. They then go on to show that tariffs and other impediments to trade cause a loss of economic efficiency. Fewer goods are available in the trading nations because of the impediments. The common method of analysis is to use price / quantity curves and two-nation / two-product curves.

Here we show that international trade is far more complex. It is a vast network beyond our present ability to accurately model. It can, however, be structured as a linear program. As a linear program it has many of the characteristics of a network. The chief difference is that linear programs provide static analysis. The world trade network is dynamic. However, by structuring it as a linear program, many of the components of international trade omitted by price/ quantity and two-nation / two-product analysis can be incorporated.

An important part of any programming analysis is determination of the objective function. Several objective functions are examined, particularly with respect to employment impacts. A variable compensatory tax (VCT) is selected as a means of dealing with the dynamics and complexity of international trade. It has the potential to repatriate 6 million jobs, is simple to implement, precludes retaliation, and would bring U.S. trade into a permanent balance of ± 5%.     

EC agricultural policy and international trade

The world markets for agricultural products are in a state of crisis. This is manifested in phenomena such as record surpluses, falling incomes for farmers and constantly increasing agricultural expenditure in a number of industrial countries while, at the same time, people go hungry in many developing regions. What are the factors which have brought this situation about? What can be done to solve these problems?     

试论服务贸易在国际贸易中的发展趋势

随着产品生产、销售的进一步全球化,资本也更加国际化,服务也将进一步全球化。先进的信息技术的发展与应用也必将进一步对服务贸易的发展带来巨大的深刻的影响,国际服务贸易的发展与国际物资贸易的发展相辅相成,在技术和全球化力量的推动下,国际服务贸易出现了新的发展趋势。     

A comparison of two models of intra-industry trade

A direct comparison is made between two models of intra-industry trade: the love-of-varieties model and the Armington model. The former is a textbook model that is theoretically appealing, but seldom used in applied studies of trade policy. The latter has been widely used in CGE modelling, but is barely mentioned in textbooks. We find that what really differentiates the two models empirically is not the incorporation of increasing returns and monopolistic competition, but the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign differentiated products. The Armington model with an infinite elasticity of substitution can mimic the love-of-varieties model.     

The grain trade and the failure of international control

In common with international agricultural trade in general the grain trade has remained immune to pressure for liberalization, and equally immune to suggestions of international management in the form of reserve stock holding, price floors and ceilings, or a full scale commodity agreement. What are the reasons for failure of such attempts in the past? Is there still a chance for GATT at least to minimize the adverse effects, especially on developing countries, of the present inefficient trading system?     

Economic integration agreements and the margins of international trade

One of the main policy sources of trade–cost changes is the formation of an economic integration agreement (EIA), which potentially affects an importing country's welfare. This paper: (i) provides the first evidence using gravity equations of both intensive and extensive (goods) margins being affected by EIAs employing a panel data set with a large number of country pairs, product categories, and EIAs from 1962 to 2000; (ii) provides the first evidence of the differential (partial) effects of various “types” of EIAs on these intensive and extensive margins of trade; and (iii) finds a novel differential “timing” of the two margins' (partial) effects with intensive-margin effects occurring sooner than extensive-margin effects, consistent with recent theoretical predictions. The results are robust to correcting for potential sample-selection, firm-heterogeneity, and reverse causality biases.     

Unemployment,tariffs and the theory of international trade

In this paper, we introduce diminishing returns to scale in Brecher's model of international trade with unemployment and then investigate some issues embodied in the theory of international trade. Our principal results are that tariffs need not improve a country's terms of trade and that capital accumulation also need not result in a predictable change in the terms of trade.     

环境与贸易:国际贸易主体间的博弈与融合

针对发展中国家与发达国家在环境保护和贸易利益方面存在严重分歧,本文采用博弈论中著名的囚徒困境模型,对国际贸易主体间就环境与贸易间的博弈进行了相关研究,研究结果表明,环境壁垒与对外贸易之间并不是一对不可调和的矛盾,贸易双方在环境与贸易中存在着两个稳定的纳什均衡。只要两个贸易主体在贸易和环境领域的全面合作,两者均可从贸易和环境中获得收益。     

标准化:应对国际贸易挑战的利剑

随着全球经济一体化进程的推进,由标准引发的技术性贸易壁垒将成为国际贸易中最主要的障碍。认识标准、掌握标准、进而制定标准是中国企业在国际化过程中,不得不迈过的一道槛。近期发生的输德电动工具 PAHs 超标事件,从某种程度上,可以说是中国企业遭遇技术性贸易壁垒一个实例。企业应当如何应对,政府部门、检测机构、行业中介从不同的角度给出了答案。也许,从这个案例中中国企业能得到些许的启发和思考,     

A vintage capital model of international trade: The case of trade with second-hand machines

The familiar two-sector, clay-clay growth model of a closed economy has been turned into an open one for which an import function could be derived. By means of this function international trade with second-hand machines can be explained on technological grounds rather than on differences in the factor endowment between the trading countries. Moreover, the technologically advanced country is by this trade able to provide ‘technological development aid’ to the backward country.     

关于国际贸易企业风险管理的探讨

国际贸易竞争越来越激烈,市场经营呈多元化趋势,支付方式各种各样,买卖双方信誉度低,企业经营不善,国际诈骗集团数量多,在这种局势下,国际贸易企业面临的风险越来越多.本文从国际贸易企业管理的现状和存在的问题进行分析,找出了一些应对分析的措施,为广大国际贸易企业风险管理政策提供参考.