The Sins of the Fathers: Intergenerational Income Mobility in China

This paper aims to obtain an accurate estimate of China's intergenerational income mobility and to present evidence on its distributional pattern. Using panel data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) over the period 1989–2009, I find that China is less mobile than most developed countries. Then, I employ five different approaches to investigate the distributional pattern of China's intergenerational mobility across income levels. The results suggest that poor families have relatively high mobility, indicating opportunities for the poor children to escape poverty. Finally, I show that while wealthy fathers are likely to pass on their favorable economic status to their sons, rich sons come from a very wide range of family economic backgrounds.     

中国城镇个人收入流动性研究

利用中国社会科学院经济研究所收入分配课题组1995年和2002年两次城镇居民住户调查数据,本文对城镇个人收入的流动性进行了经验分析,发现在1998—2002年间中国城镇个人的收入流动性比1991—1995年间显著下降。这种下降是全局性的,即不同特征人群的收入流动性都呈现出同步下降的趋势。1991—1995年间出现的较高的收入流动性,其结果是低文化程度者、退休人员和集体企业职工等人群迅速沉入收入分布的底层,而金融业人员、机关事业单位人员和管理人员等人群迅速升至收入分布的顶层。而1998—2002年期间,收入流动性的降低使得收入阶层的分化趋于稳定化。     

INTERGENERATIONAL INCOME MOBILITY IN SWEDEN: WHAT DO TAX‐DATA SHOW?

The aim of this paper is to investigate intergenerational income mobility in Sweden by means of a representative sample drawn from tax-data files. Longitudinal data on actual parent-child pairs spanning 1978–92 are employed. Regression and correlation coefficients are analyzed and transition matrices calculated in order to investigate income mobility over generations. The results achieved show high intergenerational income mobility in Sweden between fathers and sons in comparison to estimations performed in most other countries and more especially compared to the U.S. This indicates that Sweden does not only have lower cross-sectional income inequality, but also higher intergenerational income mobility than those countries. The mother's earnings influence children's earnings less than the father's. However, the mother's earnings correlate more strongly with a daughter's earnings than they do with that of a son. The major indication of immobility across generations is found in the upper income deciles.     

INCOME REDISTRIBUTION IN URBAN CHINA BY SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM—AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS BASED ON ANNUAL AND LIFETIME INCOME

This study investigates the redistributive effect of social security reform in urban China using the nationally representative urban household surveys of 1995 and 2002. The main findings are as follows. First, public pension is the main income for the elderly in urban China. The majority of people aged 60 and over (72% in 1995 and 82% in 2002) receive a pension. Second, the social security system in urban China has increased the income of low‐income and older age groups and reduced the relative poverty rate. However, the redistributive effect did not offset the expanding income inequality, which resulted in the Gini coefficient of redistributed income in 2002 being higher than that in 1995. Third, during 1995 and 2002, both low‐income and high‐income groups received a positive net benefit from the social security system, but the net benefit increased with income. The Chinese social security system lacks progressivity in contribution, and does not favor the poor in terms of benefits. Fourth, assuming that the reformed policy was applied to public sector employees, the long‐term redistributive effect of the pension system for the working population, calculated using their lifetime income, is larger. (JEL D31, H55, I38)     

Assimilation: compensating differences and job disamentities by using life-cycle adjusted income

This paper investigates whether immigrants experience adverse work conditions in the UK. It is also concerned about the extent to which compensating differences in pay are obtained for such work. A unique data set of 300 pairs of fathers and sons drawn from the Turkish and Bangladeshi immigrants in London have been used for the investigation. The results show that the fathers' work conditions remain unchanged; Bangladeshi disamenities had changed somewhat, but not for the better. This suggests that assimilation has not taken place. For the Turkish immigrants, shiftwork and piecework, noisy, dusty and lifting work conditions for the sons disappear, when income is adjusted for age. Sons could improve their work conditions towards supervisory and clerical work, handling paperwork. Some assimilation had taken place for Turkish immigrants and their sons.     

Do birth order and family size matter for intergenerational income mobility? Evidence from Sweden

Previous studies of intergenerational income mobility have not considered potential birth-order or family-size effects in the estimated income elasticity. This article uses a large sample of individuals born between 1962 and 1964; income elasticities with respect to parents’ incomes are estimated for individuals with different birth-order positions and family sizes. Results based on labour income and total income for sons and daughters are reported separately. The elasticity tends to decrease with family size as well as with birth order for a given family size, especially in the labour-income analysis of fathers and sons.     

中国城镇代际收入流动实证研究*——基于Jorgenson Fraumeni未来终生收入的估算

本文运用中国家庭收入项目调查（CHIP）1988年、1995年、2002年及2007年独生子女样本,使用Jorgenson Fraumeni未来终生收入法,旨在更加精确地估算中国城镇的代际收入流动水平,并分析其时间趋势、群体分布特点。研究发现：第一,基于该方法得到的未来终生年收入均值可最大程度显著减小父代收入测量误差导致的向下偏误。第二,我国城镇代际收入流动水平趋于下降,收入结构趋于固化,1988年、1995年、2002年、2007年代际收入弹性系数范围分别为（大于0262）、(大于0483)、（0466,0544）以及（0483,0554）。第三,中国城镇的代际收入流动水平呈现非线性特征,不同收入水平的家庭之间代际收入流动差别较大。     

Do Education and Sex Matter for Intergenerational Earnings Mobility? Some Evidence from Australia

This paper analyses the intergenerational earnings mobility in Australia for all combinations of mothers, fathers, sons and daughters. We find that mobility is highest between parents and children of the opposite sex. Daughters are more mobile than sons with respect to fathers' earnings, but there is no statistical difference between the sexes' mobility with respect to mothers' earnings. We also consider how differing levels of mobility between the sexes may be related to the education level of the children. It was found that the father–son elasticity increases with son's education level and that the difference between son–father and daughter–father mobility may be associated with the higher levels of education obtained by females from less affluent backgrounds.     

中国农村收入流动分析

本文利用农业部1986—2001年间六省农村固定观察点数据,对农村家庭收入流动进行了经验分析,发现:第一,分析期内农户呈现出收入流动程度随时间先增大后逐渐稳定的趋势,这使得持久收入不均等程度显著小于年度不均等,1995年以后虽然有较大的年度收入不均等,但持久收入不均等较小;第二,分析期内农村收入流动始终大于同期城市收入流动;第三,在1986—1990年间,农民平均收入较高省份的收入流动程度较大,而在1995—2001年间,各省收入流动差异并不明显;第四,农民收入水平有条件收敛的趋势,同时,教育水平提高、外出打工,都对农民收入增长有显著的推进作用。     

Intergenerational transmission of education in China: New evidence from the Chinese Cultural Revolution

This paper estimates the effect of parental education on children's education by using instruments generated by the Chinese Cultural Revolution, and further explores the mechanisms of this causal relationship. Several important findings stand out from our empirical analyses. We find a larger intergenerational persistence in education for higher level in urban areas but for a lower level of education in rural areas. The main results from instrumental variable estimation show that the nurture effect is larger and more significant for fathers than for mothers. A deeper investigation of the mechanism behind this nurture effect informs us that a father's education passes on to his children's education partly through the income channel. Another notable finding is that even after controlling for fathers’ income, parental education still has a significantly positive effect on children's education through the nurture effect. This indicates that beyond the income channel, there may exist other channels such as better home environment, which deserve to be explored in future research.     

Spousal Wealth and Fathers’ Involvement in Childcare in Uganda

ABSTRACT

The redistribution of household work is considered essential for effectively empowering women. This study examines the extent to which fathers’ evaluation of their wealth in relation to their wives’ influences fathers’ willingness to participate in childcare, a domain traditionally gender ascribed to wives. Data were gathered from a mothers’ survey and a fathers’ survey, each with a sample of 200, conducted in a rural and an urban district in Uganda in 2008. The study compares mean scores for perception and practice indices across three wealth categories: “wife is wealthier than husband,” “husband is wealthier than wife,” and “shared or equal wealth.” Data show that fathers are more likely to engage in childcare when husbands and wives share or have equal wealth than when there are wealth differences between spouses. The results suggest that policy should focus on raising women's economic endowment as well as public education that encourages progressive perceptions of gender roles.     

中国居民医疗支出不公平性分析

基于2002年大样本家计调查资料,本文以家庭为单位分析了家庭收入与医疗支出的关系。就中国整体而言,收入相关的居民医疗支出集中指数为48%,而可支配收入的基尼系数是45%,这表明医疗支出具有累退倾向。对其进行分解分析,结果表明这种不公平性根源在于中国城市与农村居民医疗支出严重失衡,城市居民的平均医疗支出几乎是农村的6倍,换句话说,医疗支出方面的公共资金大都集中于发达的城市医疗部门。在中国农村内部和城市内部也存在医疗支出不公平性问题,这种层次的不公平性大多可以归结为中国的东部、中部和西部在平均医疗支出水平上的差异。因此,可以说居民医疗支出的不公平主要是由于地域上的差异造成的。众所周知,中国公共卫生投资缺乏公平性,如果中国政府有意改变这种情况,那么在区域之间重新分配国家补贴就势在必行。在公共卫生预算不变的情况下,应该采取措施引导医疗补贴流向农村地区,特别是西部地区,而流向中国城市地区,特别是东部城市地区的补贴应该减少。     

我国城乡收入差距分析

城乡收入差距是城乡差距的一个重要表现,城乡收入差距越小,说明城乡一体化进程越快,反之,越慢。我国城乡收入差距过大是一个比较严重的问题。根据国际劳工组织的数据统计显示,绝大多数国家的城乡收入比值都小于1.6,只有三个国家的城乡收入比超过了2,其中就包括我国。因此缩小城乡收入差距刻不容缓,文章分析了我国城乡收入差距的现状和特征,利用1996-2011年我国29个省市自治区的面板数据,对影响我国城乡收入差距的因素进行了研究,认为影响我国城乡收入差距的因素主要有经济发展水平、国有经济占比、地方政府对经济的干预程度、地方政府财政支出中农业支出的比例以及城镇化水平等。文章结合实证结果对缩小城乡收入差距提供了相关建议。     

THE DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH IN URBAN CHINA AND IN CHINA AS A WHOLE IN 1995

The composition, inequality and determinants of wealth among households in urban China in 1995 are studied. In addition, we compare the wealth distribution in urban China with the wealth distribution in rural China and present the first estimates of inequality in the distribution of household wealth in China as a whole. The results show that housing wealth makes up a large part of net worth in urban China. Most urban Chinese households keep a bank account; debts are unusual. A household's net worth is strongly related to its income and location. Net worth is more unequally distributed among urban households than among rural households. However, compared to the situation in most industrialized countries, net worth in urban China and in China as a whole appear to be rather equally distributed.     

A New Look at Intergenerational Mobility in Germany Compared to the U.S

Motivated by contradictory evidence on intergenerational mobility in Germany, I present a cross‐country comparison of Germany and the U.S., reassessing the question of whether intergenerational mobility is higher in Germany than in the U.S. I can reproduce the standard result from the literature, which states that the German intergenerational elasticity estimates are lower than those for the U.S. However, based on highly comparable data, even a reasonable degree of variation in the sampling rules leads to similar estimates in both countries. I find no evidence for non‐linearities along the fathers' earnings distribution. In contrast, the analysis shows that mobility is higher for the sons at the lowest quartile of the sons' earnings distribution in both countries. In Germany this result is mainly driven by a high downward mobility of sons with fathers in the upper middle part of the earnings distribution. The corresponding pattern is clearly less pronounced in the U.S.     

Degrees of Connection: A Critique of Rawls’s Theory of Mutual Disinterest

John Rawls's solution to the problem of justice between generations is premised on the idea that “a generation cares for its immediate descendants, as fathers say care for their sons” (John Rawls 1971: 288, emphasis added). This paper brings mothers into the Rawlsian social contract. I argue that, when children have more than one parent, there is a contradiction between the assumption of concern for descendants, which underpins Rawls's account of justice between generations, and the mutual disinterest assumption, which characterizes parties negotiating in the “original position.” Concern for descendants creates connections within generations as well as across generations. The critique is internal and nonradical, but its implications are subversive. It demonstrates that an “add women and stir” liberal feminist reworking of Rawls's theory cannot be successful; bringing sexual reproduction out of the realm of nature and into the social contract necessitates a radical reconstruction of Rawls's theory.     

中国城镇贫困的变化趋势和模式:1988—2002

本文利用中国家庭收入项目(CHIP)调查数据,估计了1988—2002年中国城镇绝对贫困的变化趋势。根据CHIP调查数据所绘制的贫困发生曲线表明,不论把绝对贫困线确定在哪里,在该时期内中国城镇贫困都在显著减少。1988—1995年,收入分配不平等加剧,但此后基本保持稳定。分析收入和贫困决定因素的多元回归模型显示,教育、性别和中共党员等特征扩大了收入差异。来自政府反贫困措施的生活困难救助对减少城镇贫困影响很小。城镇贫困的缓解几乎完全归因于经济增长而非收入再分配。     

Long run trends in unemployment and labor force participation in urban China

Unemployment rates in countries across the world are strongly correlated with GDP. China is an unusual outlier from the pattern, whose official government statistics show abnormally low, and suspiciously stable, unemployment rates relative to its GDP. This paper reports estimates of China’s unemployment rate for its local urban Hukou population using a more reliable, nationally representative dataset for that population than in prior work, and which spans a longer period of history than in the past literature. The unemployment rates we calculate differ dramatically from those supplied in official data and are much more consistent with what is known about key historical developments in China’s labor market. The rate averaged 3.7% in 1988–1995, when the labor market was highly regulated and dominated by state-owned enterprises, but rose sharply during the period of mass layoff from 1995 to 2002, reaching an average of 9.5% in the subperiod from 2002 to 2009. The rates were even higher when demographic composition is held fixed. We can also calculate labor force participation rates, which are not available in official statistics at all. We find that they declined throughout the whole period, particularly in 1995–2002 when the unemployment rate increased most significantly. We also find that the impacts of these changes fell most heavily on the unskilled (women, those with less education, and younger individuals). Finally, estimates of unemployment and labor force participation rates are also provided for all urban residents, including migrants without local urban Hukou, and show the same patterns of change over time.     

Short-term trends in China’s income inequality and poverty: evidence from a longitudinal household survey

In the past three decades, income inequality in China has increased rapidly relative to both China’s own past and other countries at similar levels of economic development. Using recent longitudinal data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this article examines changes in income inequality and poverty prevalence between 2010 and 2012. Surprisingly, we find a modest decline in income inequality as measured by the Gini coefficients in the CFPS data. The urban–rural gap narrowed, with rural families enjoying faster income growth than urban families enjoyed. Income growth was greater for middle-income families than for families with either high or low incomes in 2010. By all measures, poverty was greatly reduced between 2010 and 2012. Two-thirds of families that had been poor in 2010 escaped poverty by 2012.     

Urban–rural income polarization and economic growth in China: evidence from the analysis of a dynamic panel data model

Using a dynamic panel data model and the system GMM, this article examines the relationship between urban–rural income polarization and economic growth at the provincial level in the period 1995 to 2010 in China. The estimated results and significant tests indicate that a certain degree of urban–rural income polarization is beneficial to economic growth at the provincial level in both stages for China as a whole, though the contribution of urban–rural income polarization to economic growth is relatively small. Aggravating urban–rural income polarization has a negative impact on economic growth in China. Based on a cluster analysis of regional economic growth at the provincial level, the authors carried out the same analysis separately for two categories of regions too. The results for those two categories of regions show that positive correlations also exist between urban–rural income polarization and economic growth in both stages, which are very similar to the analysis for the whole of China. In addition, a meaningful finding can be derived that the contribution of consumption growth rate to economic growth rate in the second stage is smaller than that in the first stage obviously.