The global bond sell‐off – why and where next?

• The rise in global bond yields since mid‐April has taken markets by surprise. Our analysis suggests that, on balance, some upward correction in yields was justified – especially in the Eurozone. For the US, the evidence is more mixed.
• A variety of explanations have been advanced to explain the bond sell‐off including Eurozone reflation/inflation, looming US rate hikes and associated uncertainty, liquidity and other technical factors, Chinese reflation and a simple reversal of yields overshooting to the downside.
• Some of these explanations are more convincing than others: in our view there is some modest evidence for increased uncertainty and liquidity effects but we also think bonds have corrected from overbought levels, especially in the Eurozone.
• Using some econometric models of bond yields suggests that the recent upward correction of German yields was probably justified; markets had pushed yields too low earlier in 2015. Indeed, the model implies a further ‘corrective’ rise in yields is possible.
• For the US, different models give slightly different results – a variant of the well‐known Shiller‐Modigliani model suggests yields should still be below 2%. However, a broader error‐correction model including factors such as fiscal variables and foreign flows into US bonds suggests the recent rise in yields was broadly justified.

     

The 1986–88 stock market: Investor sentiment or fundamentals?

This paper tests the widely held proposition that investor sentiment contributed to the stock market crash of 1987. Using weekly data during the 1986–8 period and conventional measures of stock fundamentals, changes in fundamentals are found to have a statistically significant influence on the movement of stock prices. In addition, a much-discussed measure of investor sentiment is used to test the proposition that investor sentiment contributed to the stock market crash of 1987. However, insignificant results regarding the investor sentiment index suggest that either the recently proposed sentiment index is faulty or investor sentiment did not significantly influence stock prices in the period surrounding the 1987 crash.     

The Brexit can is kicked again – where do we go next?

? The UK and EU have agreed to kick the can further along the road, extending the Article 50 period to 31 October. But our analysis of the various political scenarios suggests that the chances of Parliament using the extra time to form a consensus are low, particularly if MPs believe that further extensions are possible. Should the EU make clear that it has run out of road along which to kick the can, Parliament will be forced to choose between the three options it has always had – in this situation we would still see an “orderly” Brexit as most likely, with a sizeable risk of “no deal” and a low probability on “no Brexit”.     

‘Down with Big Brother!’ The End of ‘Corporate Culturalism’?

Hugh Willmott's classic 1993 JMS article, ‘Strength is Ignorance; Freedom is Slavery’, has greatly influenced how we understand culture management. It draws parallel's with George Orwell's Nineteen Eighty‐Four to reveal the totalitarian aspirations of ‘corporate culturalism’. While it is sometimes said that employee resistance is missing in Willmott's account, I argue that it is implicitly pervasive, prefiguring subsequent investigations of ‘micro‐emancipation’ in management studies. The recent waning of scholarly interest in this type of resistance, however, also points to the contemporary relevance of Willmott's analysis. Emergent forms of corporate regulation utilize ‘biopower’ rather than just cultural conformity, rendering micro‐emancipation inadequate, but inspiring other types of dissent.     

EUROPE – HOW CAN THINGS GET BETTER?

In the 2010 Wincott Lecture, the author – a former European Commissioner – explains how the process of policy‐making within the European Union can be improved. In order to gain the full benefits of an open and integrated single market, the EU must stop interfering in areas that should properly be the responsibility of member states. However, in the context of the current economic crisis, the EU should take a greater role in financial regulation and in ensuring fiscal responsibility among members of the eurozone.     

Europe: Common Money – Political Union?

Monetary Union marks the crowning step in the process of economic integration in Europe. This scenario of one currency, one market and 11 member countries raises the issue of whether further political integration is needed to complement the union already achieved in the monetary and economic fields. While there are pressures for change to the current status quo from several directions, further political integration will depend on the success of Monetary Union which crucially requires that countries tackle their reform challenges.     

Price‐level targeting ‐the next objective for monetary policy?

Inflation-targeting monetary policy is compared with price-level targeting. It is argued that price-level targeting offers greater certainty about the long-term inflation rate, greater economic growth, a superior response to a deflationary depression, and other advantages.     

All work and no … pay? Unpaid overtime in Greece: determining factors and theoretical explanations

During the last decades an increase of unpaid overtime has been observed combined with the inversion of the working time decreasing trend. This article analyses the data from the Labour Force Survey to estimate the determinants of unpaid overtime in Greece and uses the results to test various theoretical explanations.     

‘Post‐Third‐World City' or Neoliberal ‘City of Exception'? Rio de Janeiro in the Olympic Era

This article considers processes of urban development within the context of mega‐event preparations in Rio de Janeiro. We begin with a brief overview of these development processes, highlighting their connections to political and economic change in recent years. Proponents of these mega‐event‐led initiatives argue that Rio is undergoing a period of inclusive growth and integration: a perspective we call here a ‘post‐Third‐World city' narrative of urban renewal. Critics, however, contend that urban officials are harnessing mega‐events (e.g. the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympic Games) to push forward a neoliberal agenda of socially unjust policies benefiting the interests of capital and marginalizing the city's poor and especially its favelas (i.e. the ‘city‐of‐exception' thesis). In this article we explore the insights of these two perspectives and consider why they have grown popular in recent years. Though we side generally with the city‐of‐exception thesis, we argue that important geographic and historical particularities must also be accounted for. Without carefully situating analytical perspectives empirically—in particular, cases in which theoretical models are drawn from European and North American contexts—urban researchers risk concealing more than they reveal in analyses of rapidly developing countries like Brazil.     

Sustainable Tuna – Can the Marketplace Improve Fishery Management?

Tuna is a major global seafood commodity and thus of significance to retailers in most countries, but especially in countries consuming large quantities of canned tuna such as the United Kingdom, United States and many European countries. Some key species are under heavy fishing pressure, and companies realize that without conservation oriented management their future supplies may be in jeopardy. Sustainable sourcing policies are becoming an integral part of supply chains for seafood products. Under the influence of public opinion bodies such as the media and environmental NGOs, many retailers have adopted seafood sourcing policies in the past decade. The business strategy of any particular company in seeking to support sustainable fishing can vary, but may include the pursuit of market opportunities, protection from damaging publicity and corporate social responsibility commitments. Companies that seek to involve themselves in fishery sustainability issues need to be committed to broad based partnerships with other companies and NGOs, and transparency about all aspects of their decision making, intentions and progress. The sustainable seafood movement has proven persistent and adaptable, and this is increasing the number of retailers seeking sustainable tuna. In a demand driven market economy this growth will surely be influential. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

Towards a ‘Post‐Neoliberal’ Mode of Housing Regulation? The Israeli Social Protest of Summer 2011

In the summer of 2011, after decades of virtually uncontested neoliberalization, Israel was swept by unprecedented protests against the rising cost of living, social inequality and, most particularly, escalating housing prices. Within two weeks, a small protest camp established on Rothschild Boulevard in Tel Aviv had grown into a mass movement involving hundreds of thousands of people across the country. Given an ambivalent sense of the significance of urban movements in bringing about social change, the aim of this article is to analyze whether the Israeli social protest was able to push forward a post‐neoliberal mode of housing regulation. Building on a framework developed by Brenner, Peck and Theodore to grasp transformations in the landscape of regulatory restructuring, this article argues that the movement has indeed achieved a far‐reaching hegemonic shift in public discourse and also become an important driver in promoting regulatory experiments. Despite its achievements, however, the movement was unable to challenge the Israeli ‘rule regime' of neoliberalization, on account of two structural constraints that were shielded by the most powerful state apparatuses: the commodity character of housing; and a neoliberalized land regime, where state‐owned land is treated as a profit machine for public finance.     

Mitigating climate change – how do corporate strategies differ?

Many companies are facing increasing pressure by governments, shareholders and other stakeholders to reduce their CO₂ emissions in order to mitigate climate change. The importance of managing CO₂ emissions and crafting adequate CO₂ strategies has increased for those companies affected. We present a framework that conceptualizes a company's CO₂ strategy as the focus on one or a combination of several strategic objectives: CO₂ compensation, CO₂ reduction and carbon independence. In order to investigate the CO₂ strategies of a worldwide sample of 91 electricity producers we perform a content analysis of their answers to the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP). We demonstrate the measures the companies take to manage their emissions, the CO₂ strategies they adopt and antecedents that influence these strategies. We find that half of the companies take parallel emission management measures that aim at all three strategic objectives, while the other half pursue selected objectives only. We also find that companies with different CO₂ strategies significantly differ in terms of regional affiliation, company size and absolute amount of CO₂ emissions, while we could not identify a significant difference in relative CO₂ emissions. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

THE ORANGE BOOK – TURNING RIGHT OR CHANGING GEARS?

The Liberal Democrats becoming kingmakers in 2010 did not depend solely on the numbers adding up on May 5th. Did The Orange Book pull the party to the right, making coalition with the Tories a meeting of minds? Or was it better viewed as an element in an overall strategic shift towards greater professionalism, making a deal with either of the major parties more likely?