李嘉图国际贸易理论的新兴古典分析--交易效率、偏好对国际贸易的影响

李嘉图的比较成本理论作为国际贸易理论不可动摇的基础,具有重要的理论价值。而新兴古典贸易理论的发展,为解释国内贸易和国际贸易提供了一个统一的理论框架。其核心在于该理论独特的分析工具:超边际分析方法。采用新兴古典经济学的超边际分析方法,引入交易效率和偏好,对李嘉图的国际贸易理论进行新的分析,可以得出很多有价值的结论。本文通过建立同时存在李嘉图外生比较技术差异和交易成本的新兴古典模型,探讨了交易效率和偏好对国际贸易的影响。为贸易政策的制定提供了理论依据。一国在制定对外贸易政策时,应从改变交易效率、偏好结构的角度出发,制定有利于本国的贸易政策,从而改善其外贸条件,进一步促进其国际贸易的发展。     

Trade policy of a free trade agreement in the presence of foreign lobbying

This paper studies the effect of foreign lobbies on trade policy of a country which is a member of a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). It uses a monopolistically competitive political economy model in which the government determines external tariffs endogenously. The effect of foreign lobbying under the FTA is examined empirically using Canadian industry-level trade data that allow differentiating of lobby groups by the country of origin. The analysis suggests that the presence of foreign lobbying has a significant effect on the domestic trade policy. The heterogeneity of foreign lobbies is also important: the presence of an organized lobbying group in an FTA partner country tends to raise trade barriers while an organized lobbying group of exporters from outside of the FTA is associated with less protection.     

新贸易保护主义的新发展与中国的战略性贸易政策选择——基于弱势产业与贸易保护有效性的分析

本文在弱势产业划分与贸易保护有效性分析的基础上,探讨新贸易保护主义的新发展及其对中国进出口贸易的影响,分析我国的战略性贸易政策选择。本文认为:是否值得与能否对弱势产业进行贸易保护,在大国与小国的答案并不完全相同,可以利用大国规模经济效应提升弱势产业的比较竞争优势;对优势产业与“夕阳产业”同时进行保护、贸易保护的意识形态工具创新是新贸易保护主义新发展的主要特点;为了应对新贸易保护主义新发展对我国进出口贸易的冲击,必须制定符合我国国情的战略性贸易政策。     

国际贸易政策的保护性研究

文章通过对国际贸易政策的历史回顾 ,总结出了任何时候、任何国家的贸易政策的本质是保护性的。国与国之间贸易利益分配的差异 ,自由贸易对国家内部的不同部门 (利益集团 )的不同影响 ,是产生保护性贸易政策的内部原因和外部原因。贸易政策的国际协调并不能从根本上改变贸易政策的保护性的问题。最后分析了WTO条件下国家贸易政策保护性的表现     

FDI对我国出口贸易贡献的实证分析

FDI对促进东道国的贸易增长作用显著。改革开放以来,我国采取了一系列优惠措施,积极吸引FDI。FDI存在对我国与出口贸易发展存在着显著的正相关性,已成为我国外贸出口竞争力的重要构成因素和增长源泉。我国需进一步调整引进外资的目标和政策,增加出口产品的国际竞争力,保持我国对外贸易持续、健康、快速发展,把我国塑造成贸易强国。     

我国旅游服务贸易竞争力的国际比较

本文采取出口市场占有率指数、贸易竞争力优势指数和显示性比较优势指数,比较分析了我国与其他9个旅游服务贸易强国彼此的旅游服务贸易竞争力的状况。结果表明,我国旅游服务贸易有一定的竞争力,但与先进国家相比还有距离,需要进一步采取有效政策措施,加快提升我国旅游服务贸易的国际竞争力。     

The saving rate and the upgrade of the trade commodity structure in developing countries: A dynamic H–O model under an oligopolistic market structure

This paper constructs an oligopolistic dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin (H–O) model of a small open economy to analyze the relationship between the saving rate and the upgrade of the trade commodity structure. The analysis shows that the saving rate determines the trade commodity structure of a country in the long-run equilibrium. Furthermore, a developing country with a low capital–labor ratio in the initial state will change from exporting labor-intensive goods in the initial state to exporting capital-intensive goods in the long-run equilibrium if it has a higher saving rate, and this upgrade of trade commodity structure has a social welfare effect under an oligopolistic market structure. The effect of trade policy on the upgrade of the trade commodity structure is uncertain in our model; therefore, a high saving rate is the irreplaceable driving force for trade commodity structure upgrades in developing countries.     

管理贸易政策调整与经贸可持续发展问题探讨——基于青岛市管理贸易政策的研究

管理贸易政策是各贸易主体参与国际分工中为追求最大化贸易利益而实施的政策。随着各国政府宏观调控的加强,管理贸易政策成为一个国家或地区经贸可持续发展的重要支撑之一。青岛是典型的以对外贸易拉动经济增长的城市,通过研究青岛市经贸发展中存在的问题,探讨通过管理贸易政策调整寻求实现经贸可持续发展的路径,为地方经济提供具体政策建议同时对我国类似的地区经贸发展提供可借鉴的经验。     

The Role of GATT/WTO as a Commitment Device in the Presence of a Time Lag: Free Trade,Time‐consistent Tariff Policy and Market Size

We consider whether a free trade policy is superior to tariff policies in the presence of a time lag between production and trade decisions. We show that the preferable choice between a free trade policy and a time‐consistent tariff policy depends on the market size of the importing country. However, because a free trade policy itself is not necessarily credible in the presence of a time lag, the importing country requires an international organisation such as GATT/WTO as a commitment device. Accordingly, employing a non‐cooperative game approach, we analyse under what conditions becoming a member of such an international organisation is a subgame perfect Nash equilibrium and show that free trade under the GATT/WTO regime is Pareto improving for the importing and exporting countries.     

出口补贴、运输成本与贸易模式——对传统分析的矫正和扩展

文章试图矫正传统分析中未考虑买卖价差导致的进口竞争的疏漏和不足并予以扩展。相较于传统分析,推行出口补贴的出口国福利损失更小,同时还诱致产生了相同产品的产业内贸易现象。通过引入运输成本因素的分析表明,在出口补贴政策激励下,运输成本的大小将决定相应的贸易模式、贸易量和福利结果。随着运输成本的降低,贸易模式将从单向出口向产业内贸易演变,这时运输成本的耗费成为福利损失的最重要来源之一。基于出口国内非均质运输成本的研究发现,较高的国内运输成本使不同类企业的市场相分割,还使得出口补贴的分配呈现有偏性。如果国内运输成本下降,将形成低效率的产业内贸易现象,导致大量的运输成本耗费。     

文化贸易壁垒的效应分析

多年来我国一直在文化商品贸易中存在着贸易逆差。由于文化商品贸易与一般商品的贸易相比存在着特殊性,因此世界各国基于文化安全的目的纷纷采取文化保护主义政策。本文从文化贸易壁垒的效应分析出发,以文化例外条款为例,探讨文化贸易壁垒的实施为我国带来的经济效应以及文化效应,并对两种效应进行权衡。研究结论表明,从保护文化主权安全的角度来看,我国需要积极推动文化贸易壁垒的实施。     

Autocracy,democracy and trade policy

This paper develops a politico-economic model for use in studying the role of intra-elite conflict in the simultaneous determination of a country's political regime, trade policy and income-tax-based redistribution scheme. Three socioeconomic groups are involved: two elite groups and workers, whose preferences regarding trade policy and income taxation are derived from a simple open-economy model. The critical point is that income taxation induces a rich–poor/elite–workers political cleavage, while trade policy opens the door to intra-elite conflict. In this model, when there is no intra-elite conflict, changes in trade policy are associated with political transitions. Coups (democratizations) open up the economy if and only if both elite groups are pro-free-trade (protectionist). However, in the presence of intra-elite conflict, autocracies respond to popular revolts by changing trade policy and reallocating political power within the elite (to the elite group with the same trade policy preference as the workers) rather than offering to democratize the country. The change in trade policy is credible because the elite group with the same trade policy preference as the workers controls the autocracy. Moreover, in the presence of intra-elite conflict, coups tend to result in the maintenance of the existing trade policy unless popular demands are extremely radical and/or the elite group with the same trade policy preference as the workers is exceptionally weak.     

论商标平行进口问题对我国国际贸易的影响

商标平行进口问题一直争议较大 ,在我国情况也是如此。随着我国对外开放的深入和加入世界贸易组织后 ,及实践中这类案件发生呈上升趋势的形势 ,这一问题越来越引起人们的关注。对商标平行进口问题及对我国国际贸易的影响进行分析 ,提出以“原则上禁止商标平行进口行为的同时 ,一定条件下例外地允许平行进口。”为指导完善我国相关法律的建议。     

Induced clean technology adoption and international trade with heterogeneous firms

This paper introduces an environmental externality and factor-biased technology adoption into a trade model with heterogeneous firms. This study explores how firms’ decisions of technology adoption and of exports are affected by openness to trade and the stringency of environmental regulations. It shows that: (1) these decisions induced by tightened environmental policies depend upon whether the upgraded technology is labor-biased or emission-biased; (2) the environmental impact of trade cost reductions on the aggregate emissions and price of emissions permits varies with the factor-biased feature; and (3) regardless of the factor-biased feature, the trade cost reduction induces firms to export and to upgrade the factor-biased technology, while it forces the least productive firms to exit the market. Moreover, the model is further calibrated to simulate policy scenarios of bilateral and unilateral variations in trade variable costs and environmental policies. The bilateral reduction of emissions cap may contribute to welfare gains in both home and foreign countries. The unilateral action of tightening environmental policy in the home country may hurt the home country, but makes the foreign country better off.     

我国战略性贸易政策实践

本文对改革开放以来我国的战略性贸易政策实践进行了分析。虽然我国政府从未明确提出要实行战略性贸易政策,但是通过和日本经济高速增长时期的战略性贸易政策相比较,可以发现,在我国广泛推行的产业政策中,战略性贸易政策早就存在。只是由于产业组织政策失效所导致的市场竞争程度低下,使得我国战略性贸易政策的实施效果很不理想。因此,协调产业政策和竞争政策,打破地方保护,建立国内统一大市场就成为我国今后战略性贸易政策成功的关键。     

战略性贸易政策对我国的影响分析

在经济全球化过程中 ,战略性贸易政策已经成为各国争取最大利益的新的理论基点。对我国这样一个发展中国家而言 ,战略性贸易政策是一把双刃剑。研究战略性贸易政策有助于我们对某些贸易政策干预的理解 ,并可适当运用某些政策提高战略性产业的竞争力 ,发挥其积极作用 ,限制其消极作用。     

Carbon,Trade Policy and Carbon Free Trade Areas

This paper discusses both the potential contribution that trade policy initiatives can make towards the achievement of significant global carbon emissions reduction and the potential impacts of proposals now circulating for carbon reduction motivated geographical trade arrangements, including carbon‐free trade areas. We first suggest that trade policy is likely to be a relatively minor consideration in climate change containment. The dominant influence on carbon emissions globally for the next several decades will be growth more than trade and its composition, and in turn, the size of trade seemingly matters more than its composition given differences in emission intensity between tradables and non‐tradables. We then note that differences in emissions intensity across countries are larger than across products or sectors and so issues of country discrimination in trade policy (and violations of MFN) arise. We next discuss both unilateral and regional carbon motivated trade policy arrangements, including three potential variants of carbon emission reduction based free trade area arrangements. One is regional trade agreements with varying types of trade preferences towards low carbon‐intensive products, low carbon new technologies and inputs to low carbon processes. A second is the use of joint border measures against third parties to counteract anti‐competitive effects from groups of countries taking on deeper emission reduction commitments. A third is third‐country trade barriers along with free trade or other regional trade agreements as penalty mechanisms to pressure other countries to join emission‐reducing environmental agreements. We differentiate among the objectives, forms and possible impacts of each variant. We also speculate as to how the world trading system may evolve in the next few decades as trade policy potentially becomes increasingly dominated by environmental concerns. We suggest that the future evolution of the trading system will likely be with environmentally motivated arrangements acting as an overlay on prevailing trade and financial arrangements in the WTO and IMF, and eventually movement to linked global trade and environmental policy bargaining.     

从农产品补贴政策看我国农业的发展

虽然农业补贴违背了WTO的平等竞争原则,但在国际农产品市场上,农业补贴却始终存在。发达国家对农业的补贴不仅技术娴熟,方式多样,且补贴计划周密,应变性强,对发展中国家的农业发展造成了巨大的影响。我国加入WTO后,农业政策不断与国际接轨,但我国对农业补贴方面政策的运用程度还不够,为适应这种变化,我国应转变补贴形式,变间接补贴为直接补贴,加大生态农业补贴、农业基础设施建设补贴和农产品市场建设补贴,并规范农业补贴制度,借鉴发达国家农业补贴政策的经验,完善相关配套措施,同时加强与发展中国家合作,积极进行反补贴谈判,更好地促进我国农业的发展。     

服务业对外开放与服务贸易政策体系构筑

一国在制定服务贸易政策时会遇到比货物贸易政策更加复杂的问题,如政策工具的选择与各部门(政策)之间的相互影响、利益集团游说、政府的贸易政策不一定是有效的、我们应该加入GATS还是参与区域自由化等。因此,如何归纳总结出这些影响因素并从中挑选出较好的政策工具,对于一国在服务业开放进程中增加福利及掌握主动权至关重要。     

Trade policymaking in Uruguay: Recent trends and challenges ahead

This paper reviews the main recent trends in trade and trade policy in Uruguay. At first sight, between 2012 and 2018 no major changes are noticed in trade and trade policy in the country. Trade lost importance as share of national GDP, exports concentrated in primary sectors, and tariffs remained unchanged. However, some advances are noted. Trade in services increased substantially, export markets diversified, and the country participated actively in multilateral negotiations. As part of MERCOSUR, the country has just signed two potentially liberalising agreements, and the bloc’s internal agenda is also being modernized. At the national level, the country has undergone a series of reforms to modernise its customs procedures and facilitate trade. Some challenges lie ahead. MERCOSUR needs to consolidate the recent liberalising trend, and needs to work on its internal agenda, to liberalise interregional trade, remove non-tariff barriers and harmonise special regimes for imports. Uruguay, for its part, needs to continue with its domestic reforms to consolidate trade facilitation, to reduce duties and charges to trade, and to attract foreign investment.