Mapping future through the study of the past and present: Estonian suburbia

One of the most visible features in Estonian settlement pattern has in the last decade been the emergence of residential developments, which are primarily situated amidst former agricultural landscapes. The planners and policy-makers often approach the urban sprawl as problematic and unprecedented in the history in this part of Europe and take the current situation as a baseline or Ground Zero in developing future scenarios. The objective of our research is to demonstrate that rapid change and adaptation have been the rule rather than an exception in Estonia (as elsewhere in the Western world) in the last century. Adopting a longer time perspective and advocating a relational rather than oppositional approach to rural and urban, nature and culture, as well as the insider and outsider perspectives and public and private spheres may be useful for understanding the spatial frame and historical context in drafting scenarios. Sketching personal narratives of place that have a focus on the choices made in the past and their physical expressions as indicated on the maps, future options and visions are illustrated. We explore the domestic entanglements of rural and urban in two specific locations in Estonia to find ways to loosen the hold of dualisms and outsider-insider perspectives and to construct a more relational approach. Shifting perspectives may help to demonstrate that the urban sprawl with its cultural and ecological consequences is a part of a continuing process not something negative or new. Mapping the personal and place history illustrates the variety and contributes to ceasing the possibilities instead of tackling the uncertainties as sustainability problems.     

Cross-impact analysis using group decision support systems: an application to the future of Hong Kong

When several interdependent events affect the future of an organization, an industry, or a society, it is often useful to know how these events may affect each other. Determining the impact of external events on other such events, called a cross-impact analysis, is usually accomplished by asking knowledgeable people to (1) discuss any relationships among the events and (2) provide subjective estimates of conditional probabilities relating the events. However, there are two possible problems. First, in some political environments people may be reluctant to discuss the events openly. Second, the subjective probability estimates may violate the laws of probability theory, such as Bayes' theorem. We present a simple method, using group decision support systems (GDSS), for eliciting anonymous comments and preparing consistent probability estimates concerning interdependent events. We then illustrate our method by using it to perform a cross-impact analysis concerning the future of Hong Kong.     

American anticipations : Is the future what it used to be? American views, 1945–1985

This article is the last in the present series. It ends most appropriately by noting the many big bangs that have marked the rapid development of futures literature in the last 40 years. They have given new phrases to the English language—Think-tank, Future Shock, Thermonuclear Warfare — which have sent special messages to our times. In their different ways they say that the future is not what it used to be. As the rate of change accelerates, the problems and the difficulties seem to go on increasing. As this article seeks to show, the beginning of the answers starts from the effort to arrive at a clear picture of the most probable future.     

If you wanted to know the future of small business what questions would you ask?

Small business is a relatively new economic category, which became politically necessary as economic activity flowed from owner-managed enterprises to managerial corporations. Historically, all business operated at a small scale and were centred on the individual artisan. Even now there are strong cultural affinities to individual enterprise. Over the centuries, business has emerged, legitimised by reflexive social notions of entrepreneurship and fuelled by regulated international free trade, competition, property rights and usury. In the process, society’s view of how this market structure serves the individual is increasingly depersonalised, demanding self-reliance and responsibility of the individual separate from the economic institutions that they work for. In this landscape, small businesses are increasingly important but relatively powerless. Questions concerning their future ultimately focus on the role they play in personal and social relationships.     

Toward a sustainable energy future in Australia

Envisioning Australia's energy future through a ‘strong sustainability’ framework would see a future that is based on the efficient and equitable use of energy, sourced from a diverse range of renewable, distributed energy systems. Supply and use of this energy would produce low or zero greenhouse gases and other emissions. A sustainable energy future in Australia would also see a shift in focus to meeting energy service needs (rather increased energy consumption). Importantly, energy users would be empowered, being knowledgeable and active participants in energy markets. In reality, Australia currently stands a long way from this vision: energy-related greenhouse gas emissions are growing rapidly; take up of renewable energy is slow, particularly of distributed energy forms such as solar photovoltaics; and energy intensity of the economy is declining at a slower rate than many other OECD economies. Furthermore, Australians consume far more energy than is required to meet the service needs of even modern lifestyles. If Australia is to move towards a sustainable energy future, then significant barriers must be overcome including aspects of Australia's economic structure, a misdirected energy market reform process and a lack of visionary thinking by decision makers. Hope comes in the form of the broader Australian community who intuitively support a sustainable energy vision but currently lack the institutional, market and regulatory support to make it happen.     

Marking the future: a review of time horizons

This paper examines the variety of time horizons used by futures researchers. It summarizes responses from a survey that asked future researches (1) how far ahead they think about the future, (2) why they choose their time intervals, and (3) the importance of being clear about time intervals for the future. Findings reveal that time horizons differ and are generally shaped by the nature of each futures researcher's work. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of time horizons and importance of futures research.     

Have cities a future?

Prospects for the older declining industrial cities may take some reassurances from the example of the US Sunbelt, FR Germany and many third world cities. The survival of the city would seem to rely on not only a shift to information-processing services but also increasing the ease with which activities, people and ideas are able to move around the urban area. However in the present state of flux and seemingly contradictory indications, prophecy should be approached cautiously.     

Has progress a future?

Despite the scepticism of some about the possibility of progress being sustained, progress does remain possible if there is a wise balance struck between the interactions of material and social/individual change. Forecasting and planning within an appropriate policy framework, together with appropriate educational and industrial policies, can assist in attaining beneficial progress based on scientific and technological opportunity. There are dangers in drift and some common vision of the future is needed, although our expectations must be tempered by awareness of, and willingness to overcome pitfalls.     

Designing a foresight exercise for the future of rural communities in Romania

The paper aims to offer a good guideline for anyone who intends to do a futures or a foresight exercise for rural communities. The case presented is the one of the future of rural communities in Romania. The article begins with a brief presentation of the prevailing rural situation in Romania followed by a dialogue regarding suggestions for the possible objectives of a foresight exercise and the methods used (e.g. visioning, alternative futures, scenarios).     

创投概念：来自未来 走向未来

随着创业板的推出．创投行业的春天即将到来,这个来自未来的行业,定能从容地走向更远的未来。     

On the moving line and the future subjunctive of drawing in a post-Duchampian age

This article proceeds from the position of an in-depth analysis of present visual art practice, in so far as it reflects past histories and contains the germ of a not very enticing future. Beginning with the refusal of contemporary art to define its field (contrary to the evolving skill- and specialist-based practices of other art forms), it is argued that post-modern artists exploit the universalist doctrines of conceptual art to plunder other disciplines in a romantic, laisser-faire, if ironic manner. This colonisation is the result of post-modern theory and the influence of Duchamp and a consequence of the abandonment of drawing in its structural relation to art practice. In arguing for the importance of abstract and conceptual ways of exploring new ideas through drawing (as a complex and rhyzomic set of graphic connections, evolving in time) distinction is made between the rigidly systematic and the broadly systemic infrastructure of drawing in relation to creative acts. Following a notion borrowed from the short-lived Polish writer Bruno Schulz, that ‘time is too narrow for all events’, the second part of the article proposes an alternative post-Duchampian future dependent on the slogan ‘there cannot be a future for art without drawing, and drawing is the future of art’. Within this practice-based scenario, artists will also have to re-invent a culture of philosophical and moral responsibility for representation, specifically in relation to the field of animation, the meeting of drawing and high technology. This field cynically promotes brutality and pornography of all kinds, within negative graphic images of sexist and racist stereotypes, yet falls outside of artistic discourse. The recovery of drawing is linked to questions of artistic agency as well as notions of critique and probity.     

Organizational views of transfer pricing

Models of organization provide different sets of conceptual lenses for describing a transfer pricing decision context. Each model provides different explanations or views of events. Implications of these models or views for framing this decision context as well as for the dimensions and process of choice are discussed.     

产融结合打造未来健康中国

中国大健康产业迎来良好机遇 为贯彻习近平总书记在 " 全国卫生与健康大会"上强调的"没有全民健康,就没有全民小康"以及推进"健康中国"建设的重要指示,进一步落实国务院第〔2016〕15号文件《中医药发展战略规划纲要(2016~2030年)》,2017年5月31日,由中国抗衰老促进会、北京股权投资基金协会联合主办的"健康中国2030高峰论坛"成功举行.本次会议的主策划、中国抗衰老促进会创新与应用分会总干事、中认畅栋(北京)投资有限公司董事长吴隽女士在接受《国际融资》杂志记者采访时说:"抗衰老不是年轻人修面整容,不是单纯指向老年人,它是一个系统医学体系,在西方医学中被称为'抗衰老',在东方中医学中被称为'治未病'.中国抗衰老促进会自2013年成立以后,就着手为推进这一新学科体系建设做一些切实的工作.抗衰老产业的发展非常需要相关产业基金的支持,这样才能使这个新医学体系中的创新与应用加速度.我们正在考虑如何在大健康领域搭建一个产业基金的平台,用以支持抗衰老产业的发展.我们也在孵化一些先进科技,成功后,再把它运用到产业中去.但是,孵化这些新技术来提升产业,需要大量VC、PE加入,来帮助包括医疗服务、物流、设备、仪器等领域的创新企业做强、做大,最终使他们成为IPO上市公司.我觉得用产业基金的方式去扶持大健康产业的发展是非常必要和必须的."     

Creating the future

Wendell Bell has had a crucial contribution to the development of the network of futures scholars consisting of diversified talents and network of diversified talents and active organizations in the greater Chinese region. Furthermore, Bell's books and articles in English and Chinese have challenged and transformed people's stereotypes of the crystal-ball futurism into an academic discipline emphasizing images of the future and alternatives developed on the basis of empirical and theoretical knowledge and imagination.     

Towards a new technology future approach

In order to anticipate technological futures of Building Management Systems (BMS), many methods can be identified. However, people often focus on the results of these studies relating to new products. Undoubtedly it is easier to agree on conclusions of a study than on methods used to carry it out. Thus, answering several methodological issues, we develop a new technological future method named ‘CLE’ (complexity, logic, evolution). This one relies on three main ways to answer particularly the problems of complexity of any studied field, inaccuracy and uncertainty of available data, and representation of technological development.CLE leads to the developement of a two-level model. A microscopic level is based on biological metaphors to represent the evolution of populations of products. By a macroscopic approach, we call upon the dynamics of complex systems and fuzzy logic, which gives a representation of the environment of products. Then, the through link with the two levels in a global model simulates the relationships between the environment and the population of products. In order to illustrate this approach, we apply it with the modelization of BMS.     

The future of therapeutics in the north

Health-care systems occupy from 6% up to 15% of developed countries' GDPs. Therapeutics, particularly hospital care, occupy the bulk of these expenditures, despite their focus on dealing with disease after it arises. In the 21st century health-care systems will focus on health gains. Therapeutics will have broadened to encompass prevention and treatment, and will be focused on each individual's unique biological, psychological and social needs. Major killers, most particularly heart disease and cancer, will be far more preventable or curable, because of changes in therapeutic paradigms to more holistic approaches as well as important biomedical breakthroughs. There are a variety of negative possibilities, including continued preeminence of the medical model, growing costs, increased inequality in access, and greater poverty and social disintegration. The movement to therapeutics more focused on health gains will be accelerated by a variety of trends, particularly the development by communities in the USA and many other countries of shared visions that guide the evolution of health care in these directions.