Earnings Management During Antidumping Investigations in Europe: Sample‐Wide and Cross‐Sectional Evidence

This paper examines earnings management by EU firms that initiate an antidumping investigation. We first document economically and statistically significant income‐decreasing earnings management around the initiation of an antidumping investigation. We show that earnings management increases when accounting data directly affect the magnitude of the tariffs imposed in the trade investigation. We also find that earnings management decreases as the number of petitioning firms increases or as the distance between petitioning firms increases, suggesting free‐rider and coordination problems. We find that earnings management increases when the petition is directed at a country that imports more goods from the petitioning firm's home country, suggesting that retaliation threats affect incentives. We document that raising equity or debt financing moderates income‐decreasing earnings management, consistent with the idea that sample firms trade off capital market and regulatory considerations. Our results indicate that contemporary research methods can detect accruals‐based earnings management in settings in which the incentives for earnings management can be clearly identified.     

Wisdom of Crowds: Cross‐Sectional Variation in the Informativeness of Third‐Party‐Generated Product Information on Twitter

This paper examines whether third‐party‐generated product information on Twitter, once aggregated at the firm level, is predictive of firm‐level sales, and if so, what factors determine the cross‐sectional variation in the predictive power. First, the predictive power of Twitter comments increases with the extent to which they fairly represent the broad customer response to products and brands. The predictive power is greater for firms whose major customers are consumers rather than businesses. Second, the word‐of‐mouth effect of Twitter comments is greater when advertising is limited. Third, a detailed analysis of the identity of the tweet handles provides the additional insights that the predictive power of the volume of Twitter comments is dominated by “the wisdom of crowds,” whereas the predictive power of the valence of Twitter comments is largely attributable to expert comments. Furthermore, Twitter comments not only reflect upcoming sales, but also capture an unexpected component of sales growth.     

Cross‐sectional Tests of Conditional Asset Pricing Models: Evidence from the German Stock Market

We study the performance of conditional asset pricing models and multifactor models in explaining the German cross‐section of stock returns. We focus on several variables, which (according to previous research) are associated with market expectations on future market excess returns or business cycle conditions. Our results suggest that the empirical performance of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) can be improved when allowing for time‐varying parameters of the stochastic discount factor. A conditional CAPM using the term spread explains the returns on our size and book‐to‐market sorted portfolios about as well as the Fama‐French three‐factor model and performs best in terms of the Hansen‐Jagannathan distance. Structural break tests do not necessarily indicate parameter instability of conditional model specifications. Another major finding of the paper is that the Fama‐French model – despite its generally good cross‐sectional performance – is subject to model instability. Unconditional models, however, do a better job than conditional ones at capturing time‐series predictability of the test portfolio returns.     

Cross‐licensing and competition

We analyze the competitive effects of bilateral cross‐licensing agreements in a setting with many competing firms. We show that firms can sustain the monopoly outcome if they can sign unconstrained bilateral cross‐licensing contracts. This result is robust to increasing the number of firms who can enter into a cross‐licensing agreement. We also investigate the scenario in which a cross‐licensing contract cannot involve the payment of a royalty by a licensee who decides ex post not to use the licensed technology. Finally, policy implications regarding the antitrust treatment of cross‐licensing agreements are derived.     

IPO Pricing,Block Sales,and Long‐Term Performance

Block sales following IPOs are related to the IPOs' value relative to an estimate of intrinsic value, opening‐trade return, and IPO size. Overvalued IPOs experience more block sales than undervalued IPOs. IPOs with high block sales outperform IPOs with low block sales from 20 days after IPO through lockup expiration; however, IPOs with high block sales underperform IPOs with low block sales from lockup expiration through the third year after the IPO. The results indicate that block traders are advantaged relative to other traders; whether the advantage is based on superior information or superior valuation capabilities is unknown.     

The European Insolvency Regulation and the UNCITRAL Model Law on Cross‐Border Insolvency

This article compares the Recast European Insolvency Regulation of 2015 with the UNCITRAL Model Law on Cross‐Border Insolvency of 1997, focussed on their scope of application, international jurisdiction and the coordination of main and secondary proceedings. The scopes of both catalogues of norms and their rules on coordination of main and secondary insolvency proceedings reflect one another. However, the Recast EIR makes a significantly greater contribution to the unification of law and is also more fully differentiated and more precise, even if this comes at a price, namely, limited flexibility. The UNCITRAL Model Law made an important contribution to the harmonisation of international insolvency law but requires now modernisation. Copyright © 2017 INSOL International and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The UNCITRAL Model Law on Cross‐border Insolvency and the Rule of Law

The rule of law is a concept that was often considered in the context of national legal systems. However, it is now commonly being promoted as significant in the transnational context. This paper addresses its importance within the transnational economic and commercial context, in particular in response to cross‐border insolvencies. It examines how the UNCITRAL Model Law on Cross‐border Insolvency and its Guide to Enactment and Interpretation promote key tenets of the rule of law in transnational disputes arising out of businesses in financial distress. In particular, some examples are provided of cases from the Asia‐Pacific region in which the Model Law has been applied to demonstrate how the rule of law may be promoted in an insolvency context. Finally, the paper concludes that the adoption of the UNCITRAL Model Law on Cross‐border Insolvency promotes transparency, accountability and predictability, which in turn support stability in financial systems and credit relationships and thus trade within a global market. This is a direct result of adherence to elements of the rule of law principle. Copyright © 2016 INSOL International and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 INSOL International and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd     

Accounting of the German Statutory Pension Scheme: Balance Sheet,Cross‐Sectional Internal Rate of Return and Implicit Tax Rate

We present a framework for accounting of the German statutory pension scheme and calculate a balance sheet for the period 2005–14. Estimating a funding ratio of about 90 per cent, we present some policy recommendations in order to restore balancing of assets and liabilities. Extending and applying the methodology proposed by Settergren and Mikula (2005), we additionally estimate the aggregate cross‐sectional internal rate of return of the German pension scheme over this period. We are able to show that these internal rates of return are mainly financed by increasing contributions and by increasing unfunded liabilities. Additionally, our analysis reveals that from an expenditure perspective, the major part of the internal rate of return results from changing longevity rather than other changes. We also estimate the implicit tax rates from a cross‐sectional perspective and find that they can mainly be interpreted as an ‘implicit wealth tax’ on pension wealth. Finally, we analyse the impact of demographic change on the balance sheet employing a population projection. While the pure demographic effect leads to a decreasing funding ratio during population ageing, the automatic balancing mechanisms of the German pension scheme lead to a significant overfunding in the long run from the accounting perspective adopted in the Swedish pension system.     

Does Dividend Policy Relate to Cross‐Sectional Variation in Information Asymmetry? Evidence from Returns to Insider Trades

We examine the relation between dividends and information asymmetry by using insider returns as a proxy for information asymmetry. We find that dividends are negatively related to returns to insider trades across firms. Firms that pay consistently high dividends have lower insider returns than do firms that pay consistently low dividends. These results do not support traditional dividend signaling models. Rather, they are consistent with the proposition that firms with the highest dividends have the lowest levels of information asymmetry.     

Stock Liquidity Risk and the Cross‐sectional Earnings‐Returns Relationship

We argue that a higher sensitivity to aggregate market‐wide liquidity shocks (i.e., a higher liquidity risk) implies a tendency for a stock's price to converge to fundamentals. We test this intuition within the framework of the earnings‐returns relationship. We find a positive liquidity risk effect on the relationship between return and expected change in earnings. This effect on the earnings‐returns relationship is distinct from the negative effect observed for stock illiquidity level. Notably, the liquidity risk effect is evident (absent) during periods of neutral/low (high) aggregate market liquidity. We also show that the liquidity risk effect is dominant in firms that: (a) are of intermediate size; (b) are of intermediate book‐to‐market; and (c) are profit making.     

Investment and the Cross‐Section of Equity Returns

The data show that, upon being hit by adverse profitability shocks, large public firms have ample latitude to divest their least productive assets, reducing the risk faced by shareholders and the returns that they are likely to demand. In the one‐factor production‐based asset pricing model, when the frictions to capital adjustment are shaped to respect the evidence on investment, the model‐generated cross‐sectional dispersion of returns is only a small fraction of that documented in the data. Our conclusions hold even when operating or labor leverage is modeled in ways shown to be promising in the extant literature.     

On the Publicity of Two‐Stage Spin‐Offs and Equity Carve‐Outs

We investigate the effect of pre‐offer publicity on ownership, pricing, and aftermarket performance for equity carve‐outs (ECOs) and two‐stage spin‐offs (COSOs). Contrary to ECOs, for COSOs the parent firm's shareholders end up with free shares in the subsidiary. As the value of large share blocks is likely to be negatively affected by the emergence of new blocks after the divestiture, we hypothesize that parent firms undertaking COSOs may conduct more pre‐offer publicity to attract more retail investors, keeping outside ownership diffuse and inflating aftermarket performance until the distribution of the free shares. We find empirical support for our hypotheses.     

Cross‐border Insolvency and Legal Transnationalisation

The last 20 years has seen an explosion of approaches for dealing with an inevitable consequence of globalised markets, that of cross‐border insolvencies. This article places phenomena such as the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law Model Law on Cross‐border Insolvency and Cross‐border Insolvency Agreements (also known as Protocols) within the context of developing laws on international commercial transactions. First, it briefly describes the evolution of the international commercial law (sometimes known as the law merchant) to provide a context to understanding the international commercial responses to the problems created by cross‐border insolvencies. Next, it outlines the range of approaches being adopted by states and multilateral bodies in recent decades to resolve cross‐border insolvency issues. Finally it draws some preliminary conclusions on the potential implication of this transnationalisation process and broader international commercial law perspective, in particular on the capacity of cross‐border insolvency agreements to address cross‐border insolvency issues. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Leverage and the Cross‐Section of Equity Returns

Building on theoretical asset pricing literature, we examine the role of market risk and the size, book‐to‐market (BTM), and volatility anomalies in the cross‐section of unlevered equity returns. Compared with levered (stock) returns, unlevered market beta plays a more important role in explaining the cross‐section of unlevered equity returns, even after controlling for size and BTM. The size effect is weakened, while the value premium and the volatility puzzle virtually disappear for unlevered returns. We show that leverage induces heteroskedasticity in returns. Unlevering returns removes this pattern, which is otherwise difficult to address by controlling for leverage in regressions.     

Good‐Specific Habit Formation and the Cross‐Section of Expected Returns

I study asset prices in a general equilibrium framework in which agents form habits over individual varieties of goods rather than over an aggregate consumption bundle. Goods are produced by monopolistically competitive firms whose elasticities of demand depend on consumers' habit formation. Firms that produce goods with a high habit level relative to consumption have low demand elasticities, set high prices for their product, have low expected returns on their stock, and have low asset pricing betas and stock return volatilities. I find supportive evidence for these predictions in the data.     

Cross‐region and cross‐sector asset allocation with regimes

Cross‐region and cross‐sector asset allocation decisions are one of the most fundamental issues in international equity portfolio management. Equity returns exhibit higher volatilities and correlations, and lower expected returns, in bear markets compared to bull markets. However, static mean–variance analysis fails to capture this salient feature of equity returns. We accommodate the nonlinearity of returns using a regime switching model across both regions and sectors. The regime‐dependent asset allocation potentially adds value to the traditional static mean–variance allocation. In addition, optimal allocation across sectors provide greater benefits compared to international diversification, which is characterized by higher returns, lower risks, lower correlations with the world market and a higher Sharpe ratio.     

Northern Lights,Canada's version of the UNCITRAL Model Law on Cross‐Border Insolvency

Statute of Canada Chapter 47, when it is proclaimed in force, will largely adopt the UNCITRAL Model Law on Cross‐border Insolvency. The current and proposed cross‐border provisions could be considered Canada's “Northern Lights”, evolving constantly, but aligning with the objectives and scope of the UNCITRAL Model Law. While Chapter 47 is a modified version of the Model Law, it continues Canada's regime as one of modified universalism, with a strong commitment to comity and coordination. There are likely to be contests for control over the scope of foreign proceedings, although arguably, no more so than under the language of the Model Law. The most critical issues to resolve in the short term are definitions of COMI where corporate groups are involved, and the issue of the scope and extent of possible concurrent main proceedings, both areas left to the discretion of the courts in their interpretation of the legislation's domestic, as well as cross‐border, provisions. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.