Embedding Sustainability Performance and Long‐Term Strategy in the Earnings Call

The practice of disclosing corporate Environmental, Social and Governance performance information continues to evolve, and the frequency of ESG disclosures in investor‐facing discussions, including Investor Day presentations and non‐deal roadshows, continues to grow. But even with these developments, the corporate‐investor dialogue about ESG and long‐term strategy, and their expected effects on long‐run profitability and value, has continued to lag. This seems particularly evident in the quarterly earnings call. In this article, the authors review the work of NYU's Center for Sustainable Business, in collaboration with Chief Executives for Corporate Purpose (CECP), in encouraging companies to work ESG themes and performance into their quarterly earnings calls. After discussing the reasons for the relatively slow progress in this important disclosure venue, including interviews with sell‐side analysts, the authors propose practical approaches that can guide companies, regardless of industry or market cap, in delivering this content in a way that is valuable to both buy‐side and sell‐side equity analysts.     

Quarterly Earnings Announcements and Market Risk Adjustments

We examine (1) whether there is a shift in beta for individual securities around quarterly earnings announcements, and (2) whether these beta changes relate to certain characteristics of the firms. We find a statistically significant upward (downward) beta shift during the two-day earnings announcement period for 25 per cent (9 per cent) of a sample of 195 US firms. We also find that the beta shift at the time of the earnings announcement is significantly higher for small firms (i.e., more precise announcements).     

Financial Analysts' Earnings Forecast Dispersion and Intraday Stock Price Variability Around Quarterly Earnings Announcements

This study investigates the relationship between the dispersion of analysts' earnings forecasts and stock price variability around quarterly earnings announcements. Consistent with theoretical predictions, the empirical analysis shows that stock price variability at the time of earnings announcements is positively related to the degree of analysts' predisclosure earnings forecast dispersion. Additionally, firms with high levels of forecast dispersion exhibit significant increases in price variability for longer periods prior to and following earnings announcements than do firms with low levels of forecast dispersion. These results suggest that there is information about the earnings announcement that becomes available to at least a subset of investors prior to the earnings release and that market participants take different amounts of time to process the information conveyed by the earnings announcement.     

Commodity Trade and the Carry Trade: A Tale of Two Countries

Persistent interest rate differentials account for much of the currency carry trade profitability. “Commodity currencies” offer high interest rates on average, while countries that export finished goods tend to have low interest rates. We develop a general equilibrium model of international trade and currency pricing where countries have an advantage in producing either basic inputs or final goods. In the model, domestic production insulates commodity‐producing countries from global productivity shocks, forcing final‐good producers to absorb them. Commodity‐currency exchange rates and risk premia increase with productivity differentials and trade frictions. These predictions are strongly supported in the data.     

Fiscal Consolidation and Decentralisation: A Tale of Two Tiers*

This paper contributes to the established literature on fiscal consolidations by investigating the distinct behaviour of central and sub‐central tiers of government during general government consolidation attempts. In the light of different degrees of decentralisation across OECD countries, and the different responsibilities devolved to sub‐central tiers, we believe that this approach offers an illuminating insight into the analysis of fiscal consolidations and their success. We show that the involvement of the sub‐central tiers of government is crucial to achieving cuts in expenditure, particularly in relation to the overall size of the government wage bill. In addition, central governments appear to exert a strong influence on the expenditure of sub‐central tiers through their grant allocations, and control of these allocations appears to have a considerable impact upon the overall success of consolidation attempts. Finally, we demonstrate that there is a skewness in cuts towards sub‐central capital expenditure both when central governments cut grant allocations and when sub‐central governments engage in lone consolidation attempts.     

A Tale of Two Countries: Comparing the US and Chinese Housing Markets

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - The recent surge in property values in China has been similar to the surge in the U.S before the crash in 2007. This raises concerns about whether...     

A Tale of Two Classes: The Privatisation of Medway Ports

This paper presents a case study of the privatisation of a UK port, Medway Ports, which was sold to a Management and Employee Buyout consortium in 1992 with assistance from the accountancy firm of Price Waterhouse. Half the work force was then dismissed by the new management and forced to sell back their shares which were valued at £2.50 by another accounting firm, KPMG Peat Marwick. Within a short time, Medway was resold to Mersey Dock & Harbour Company for £37 per share, making millions for Medway's directors and financial backers. The resale price was eight times more than the amount the UK Treasury had received from the original sale only 18 months earlier prompting an investigation into the government's handling of the privatisation. The study examines the privatisation of Medway Ports as a focal point for understanding the role major accountancy firms have played in the neo-liberal privatisation programme.     

Far Beyond the Quarterly Call: CECP's First CEO‐Investor Forum

The authors begin by describing how the existing structure of corporateshareholder communications encourages short‐term planning and performance evaluation horizons. Then, after summarizing the substantial evidence that corporate management, boards, and investors are concerned about the failure of current corporate‐shareholder communications to reflect longer‐run corporate investment and its expected payoffs, the article holds up the long‐run plans presented by the CEOs of five large public U.S. companies (and the CFO of IBM) at the first ever CECP CEOInvestor Forum as providing a promising model for the future. Such presentations are also evaluated against a set of criteria the authors propose for assessing the effectiveness of those presentations—criteria that were developed through extensive investor and CEO feedback. The article concludes by discussing the three main programs that make up CECP's Strategic Investor Initiative to further the development of such longterm plans. One program is focused on identifying different kinds of investors, with the aim of helping management attract longer‐term shareholders. A second program is designed to improve the ways companies communicate with their non‐investor stakeholder groups, with particular emphasis on The Statement of Material Audiences and its role in identifying the critical stakeholders and their contributions to the long‐run success of the company. Third and last is the development of a common language and tool‐kit for longterm plans, with the aim of bringing about the broad adoption of longterm plans as a mainstream element in corporate‐shareholder communications.     

制度变革、盈余持续性与市场定价行为研究

本文将会计制度变迁、配股政策的变革和股权分置改革作为资本市场制度变革的典型代表引入Ohlson剩余收益模型,结合盈余持续性分析了其对市场定价行为的影响。研究发现:随着我国证券市场的发展,营业利润在市场定价中发挥着主导作用,线下项目的定价作用减弱;随着配股政策和会计制度等的改革,线下项目对配股权在市场定价中的作用下降;会计制度改革和股权分置改革增强了持续性盈余的定价作用。这说明,制度变革提高了市场效率。     

Earnings Conference Call Content and Stock Price: The Case of REITs

Using computer based content analysis, we quantify the linguistic tone of quarterly earnings conference calls for publicly traded Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). After controlling for the earnings announcement, we examine the relation between conference call tone and the contemporaneous stock price reaction. We find that the tone of the conference call dialogue has significant explanatory power for the abnormal returns at and immediately following quarterly earnings announcements. The question and answer portion of the conference calls dominates prepared managerial introductory remarks in explanatory significance. Furthermore, an overall positive tone in the conference call discussion between management and analysts is found to nearly offset the damaging effects of a negative earnings surprise.     

A Tale of Two Runs: Depositor Responses to Bank Solvency Risk

We examine heterogeneity in depositor responses to solvency risk using depositor‐level data for a bank that faced two different runs. We find that depositors with loans and bank staff are less likely to run than others during a low‐solvency‐risk shock, but are more likely to run during a high‐solvency‐risk shock. Uninsured depositors are also sensitive to bank solvency. In contrast, depositors with older accounts run less, and those with frequent past transactions run more, irrespective of the underlying risk. Our results show that the fragility of a bank depends on the composition of its deposit base.     

Relation Between Predisclosure Information Asymmetry and Trading Volume Reaction Around Quarterly Earnings Announcements

This study investigates the effects of differences in predisclosure information asymmetry on trading volume reaction during quarterly earnings announcements. The analyses show that trading volume reaction to quarterly earnings announcements is positively related to the level of predisclosure information asymmetry and to the magnitude of the price reaction to the announcements. These results are consistent with Kim and Verrecchia's (1991a) theoretical trading volume proposition, and with Atiase and Bamber's (1994) tests of the proposition based on annual earnings announcements. This study also provides evidence on the relation of predisclosure information asymmetry and trading volume before and after quarterly earnings announcements.     

Has the Information Content of Quarterly Earnings Announcements Declined in the Past Three Decades?

This paper examines changes in the information content of earnings over the past three decades using the two metrics from Beaver [1968]: abnormal trading volume and abnormal return volatility. We find no evidence of a decline in the information content of earnings announcements over the past three decades, as measured by both abnormal trading volume and return volatility around quarterly earnings announcements. If anything, our results suggest an increase over time in the informativeness of quarterly earnings announcements. Variables reflecting changes in firm-specific factors account for a portion of the observed increase.     

A Tale of Two Premiums: The Role of Hedgers and Speculators in Commodity Futures Markets

This paper studies the dynamic interaction between the net positions of traders and risk premiums in commodity futures markets. Short-term position changes are driven mainly by the liquidity demands of noncommercial traders, while long-term variation is driven primarily by the hedging demands of commercial traders. These two components influence expected futures returns with opposite signs. The gains from providing liquidity by commercials largely offset the premium they pay for obtaining price insurance.     

A Tale of Two Growth Engines: Interactive Effects of Monetary Policy and Intellectual Property Rights

How do intellectual property rights that determine the market power of firms influence the growth and welfare effects of monetary policy? To analyze this question, we develop a monetary hybrid endogenous growth model in which R&D and capital accumulation are both engines of long‐run economic growth. We find that monetary expansion hurts economic growth and social welfare by reducing R&D and capital accumulation. Furthermore, a larger market power of firms strengthens these growth and welfare effects of monetary policy through the R&D channel but weakens these effects through the capital‐accumulation channel. Therefore, whether the market power of firms amplifies or mitigates the welfare cost of inflation depends on the relative importance of the two growth engines. Finally, we calibrate the model using data in the United States and the Euro Area to quantitatively evaluate and compare the welfare cost of inflation in these two economies and find that the R&D channel dominates in both economies.     

Monetary Policy Rules Work and Discretion Doesn’t: A Tale of Two Eras

This lecture examines monetary policy during the past three decades. It documents two contrasting eras: first a Rules‐Based Era from 1985 to 2003 and second an Ad Hoc Era from 2003 to the present. During the Rules‐Based Era, monetary policy, in broad terms, followed a predictable systemic approach, and economic performance was generally good. During the Ad Hoc Era, monetary policy is best described as a “discretion of authorities” approach, and economic performance was decidedly poor. By considering alternative explanations of this policy–performance correlation and examining corroborating evidence, the lecture concludes that rules‐based policies have clear advantages over discretion.     

A Tale of Two Rigidities: Sticky Prices in a Sticky‐Information Environment

Macroeconomic models with microeconomic foundations allow for comparisons with macro and micro empirical evidence. This paper proposes a model wherein firms: (i) acquire information infrequently, generating sticky information ( Mankiw and Reis 2002 ) and (ii) face menu costs, producing state‐dependent sticky prices. I estimate parameters via indirect inference and show that under considerable real rigidity, sticky prices in a sticky‐information environment are consistent with micro and macro evidence. Sticky prices not only help match micro data on price changes’ size and durations between adjustments; they also improve the model's fit with the macro data, as embodied in an empirical Phillips curve.