Kinky perceived demand curves and Keynes–Negishi equilibria

The label "Keynes–Negishi equilibria" is attached here to equilibria in a monetary economy with imperfectly competitive product and labor markets where business firms and labor unions hold demand perceptions with kinks: as posited in Negishi's 1979 book Microeconomic Foundations of Keynesian Macroeconomics . Such equilibria are defined in a general equilibrium model, and shown to exist. Methodological implications are briefly discussed in a concluding section.     

Exploring the Macroeconomic Impact of Subsidized Employment

Spending on subsidized employment programmes has taken a high flight in the Netherlands over the past decade. We consider the impact of subsidized employment for low-productive workers in a stripped-down version of the MIMIC model. In our stylized model employment subsidies in the private sector lead to a marginal increase in employment and output. Subsidized employment programmes in the public sector lead to a larger increase in overall employment, but crowding out of regular employment leads to a fall in overall output. We further show that judging programmes on the basis of individual effects can be quite misleading, as the effects on the aggregate level can be quite different. Finally, given the steep rise in expenditures it is disturbing to see how little empirical knowledge we have on the impact of actual programmes on the individual level.     

我国劳动力转移的制度性因素分析

文章基于制度需求一供给模型，用外生制度因素分析了我国劳动力转移的演进过程，提出劳动力要素的产权界定是自由转移的前提，要素配置效率的提高只能在公平的市场中实现。政府的作用是供给劳动力自由转移的制度。     

Economic and Distributional Impact of COVID-19: Evidence from Macro-Micro Modelling of the South African Economy

A computable general equilibrium model linked to a microsimulation model is applied to assess the potential short-term effects on the South African economy of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. With a particular focus on distributional outcomes, two simulations are run, a mild and a severe scenario. The findings show significant evidence of decline in economic growth and employment, with the decline harsher for the severe scenario. The microeconomic results show that the pandemic moves the income distribution curve such that more households fall under the poverty line while at the same time, inequality declines. The latter result is driven by the disproportionate decline in incomes of richer households while the poorest of the poor are cushioned by government social grants that are kept intact during the pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic is still unfolding and its economic modelling as well as the data used to operationalise the model will need to be updated and improved upon as more information about the disease and the economy becomes available.     

新农村建设中人力资本的供需均衡与机制构建

农村人力资本是影响我国新农村建设的内生变量。由于我国城乡教育机会和教育资源非均衡、城乡公共卫生和健康资源非均衡、城乡社会保障非均衡、城乡文明发展非均衡、城乡基础设施非均衡以及城乡经济组织结构发展非均衡，导致了我国农村人力资本供给不足，需求疲软。因此，必须构建农村人力资本融投机制、需求机制、流动机制以及政策法律法规支持机制，以促进农村人力资本的供需均衡。     

十堰某扶贫产业园高填方边坡整体与局部稳定性分析

以十堰某扶贫产业园挖山填沟工程形成的高填方边坡为背景,基于Geo-Studio软件的SLOPE/W模块,对边坡进行稳定性计算,确定其最危险滑面.此外,对于局部小边坡分别考虑天然、饱和以及地震作用不同工况下的稳定系数,给出不同计算工况对边坡稳定性的一般影响规律.稳定性分析结果表明,滑体一般沿着土和岩体接触面滑动;此外,考虑水和地震作用的边坡稳定性会明显降低.     

Estimating the Impact of Transgenic Bt Cotton on West and Central Africa: A General Equilibrium Approach

West and Central Africa (WCA)’s cotton sector is experiencing rising production costs and lower yields, reversing decades of growth. Declining input use, soil fertility and inefficient chemical pest controls are contributing factors. We evaluate the potential impact of Bt cotton on WCA using a multiregion general equilibrium model and multicountry estimates of Bt-induced productivity. We find that Bt cotton raises growers’ returns, land value and welfare. Released labor from cotton is shifted to food crops hence reducing labor shortage constraints. Overall, results indicate that potential gross benefits from Bt cotton are substantial for WCA cotton sector, and that the economic costs of nonadoption are equally significant.     

Influence of the Banks' Money Mediation Behavior on the Monetary Policy: A Study of Korean Case

Abstract

This paper analyses how financial institutions' arbitrary intermediation behaviors, including adjustments in bank lending and deposit rates, influence monetary policy transmission channels. For the analysis, we develop a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NK DSGE) model with parameters estimated to fit the Korean conditions. The role of banks is subsequently examined by classifying monetary policy transmission channels (real rate channel, nominal debt channel, financial accelerating channel, and banking attenuator channel). A notable part of this analysis is the inclusion of the banking sector in the model specifically with the intent to study transmissions from the financial sector to the real economy. This paper follows this line of inquiry with recent research in mind. Empirical analysis verifies the existence of the banking attenuator effect in Korea, which means banks act to reduce the effect of monetary policies. This indicates that if financial intermediaries strengthen arbitrary adjustment behaviors of lending and deposit rates, the effect of the monetary policy intended to relieve volatility in the business cycle may not be as high as expected.     

区域经济竞争力的均衡性研究--以我国省域经济分析为例

文章提出区域经济综合竞争力的均衡性和均衡指数概念,设计出两种应用均衡指数研究区域经济综合竞争力的方法:区域经济综合竞争力的优势———均衡矩阵法和优势———均衡指数法,并以我国31个省域经济2002年经济综合竞争力均衡性分析为实证加以说明。     

Currency Substitution and the Stability of the Demand for Money in East Asia

Abstract

This paper models and tests the stability of the demand for money in five East Asian countries—Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand—in the context of an open economy. The Johansen multivariate cointegration vector error correction analysis against quarterly data covering the period 1985:1–2001:4 was used. It was found that a stationary long run cointegrating relationship exists between broad money, real income, domestic interest rates, foreign interest rates corrected for exchange rate depreciation, and the expected rate of depreciation of the exchange rate. The results show that US Treasury bills rates and the foreign exchange rate vis-à-vis the US dollar play a significant role in the East Asian countries money demand relationship. This suggests that currency substitution vis-à-vis the US dollar may be an important consideration in the design and implementation of monetary policy in the East Asian countries. Furthermore, the results show that the Asian currency crises impacted the money demand functions negatively in these countries. CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests show no evidence of parameter instability of the money demand functions in three of the five countries throughout the period under investigation.     

Sectoral Estimates of Informality: A New Method and Application for the Turkish Economy

In this paper, we use results of a novel survey covering 1,000 firms from 16 different sectors of the Turkish economy along with a two‐sector dynamic general equilibrium model to measure the extent of informality in these sectors. Moreover, we also evaluate the effects of two different policy tools on informality, namely, income taxes and tax enforcement. Our results show that while both are effective policy tools in dealing with informality, tax enforcement is a relatively more efficient tool and tax becomes quite ineffective at lower levels of informality.     

Impact of immigration on the Japanese economy: A multi-country simulation model

To quantify the impacts of immigration and fiscal reconstruction on the Japanese economy, we present a dynamic computable general equilibrium OLG model with an overlapping generations structure. We use a total of 16 countries and regions, both including those that are industrialized, such as Japan, the US, and the EU, and developing countries, such as China, Brazil, the Philippines, and Peru.Our simulation results show that a permanent immigration flows of 150,000 will improve the Japanese economy and the welfare of current and future generations. On the other hand, a standalone increase in the consumption tax will not improve long-run welfare. The results indicate that substantially increased inflows of working-age immigrants would alleviate the need for future fiscal reform and also help to dramatically reduce the public pension burden on the working generations.     

我国上市公司并购活动中的政府行为研究

我国高等教育事业的发展 ,离不开金融部门的信贷支持 ,然而面对日趋增长的高等教育信贷需求 ,银行信贷供给明显不足 ,出现了高等教育信贷市场失衡。本文在对我国高等教育信贷供求进行理论与实证分析基础上 ,对如何实现高等教育信贷市场均衡进行了探讨。     

关于发展高校科技产业的对策思考

本文在对马歇尔的交叉价格确定法进行分析的基础上 ,指出了其价格理论在方法和理论上所存在的不足之处 ,进而提出了N/rT -X/Y价格确定式。     

Effects of Free Trade on Women and Immigrants: CAFTA and the Rural Dominican Republic

We construct a disaggregated rural economywide model with a focus on gender and immigration as well as on the allocation of time to wage work, household production activities, and housework (reproduction). We use this model to simulate the impacts of the Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA) on rural incomes and welfare in the Dominican Republic. We find that elimination of agricultural import tariffs hurts both agricultural and non-agricultural households, via adverse factor-market effects, but impacts vary substantially by workers’ gender and country of origin. Females and Haitian immigrants tend to fare better than Dominican males, and there are ramifications for both market and non-market activities.     

Long‐run Effect of the Global Financial Crisis on Singapore's Tourism and the Economy

This study employs recent Singaporean tourism survey data, the updated Singaporean input–output tables and a computable general equilibrium model to gauge the long‐run effects of the 2008 global financial crisis and selected policy responses. The simulation results suggest that the global financial crisis has had mild negative long‐run effects on the overall development of Singapore's economy, and that the GST deduction policy ought to offset this negative effect.     

通用机场运行安全保障能力评价研究

通用机场正处于难得的历史机遇期.为了促进其健康发展,从根本上改进通用机场可能存在的安全漏洞,着重分析了通用机场的运行安全特性,强化过程管理,构建安全保障能力评价指标体系,将变权综合法应用到该评价中,计算出评价体系的综合评价值,并通过实例验证该方法的可行性.研究成果可为中国通用机场提升安全管理水平提供参考.     

不同开挖法对某隧道开挖的围岩稳定性分析

为研究不同开挖法对色季拉山隧道开挖的围岩稳定性的影响,对比分析两台阶开挖法、三台阶开挖法和全断面开挖法在开挖过程中围岩的应力变化及变形情况。基于钻孔SJLSZ-1位置处岩石样品的岩性参数,结合隧道相关支护数据,利用Geo-Studio软件中的SIGMA/W模块分别对该隧道不同开挖法开挖进行数值模拟,并分析隧道开挖的稳定性。结果表明：3种方法在开挖过程中以及全部开挖后,掌子面围岩XY位移主要集中在隧道的顶部及仰拱,而最大主应力主要集中在隧道的左拱腰以及右拱腰;对比云图变化及监测点数据,全断面开挖法的XY位移量最小,拱顶24.8 mm,右拱脚28.3 mm;应力变化最小,左拱腰690.303 kPa,右拱腰721.171 kPa;综合数值模拟分析过程中监测点的位移数据以及应力数据发现,全断面开挖法为隧道的最优开挖方法。研究结果可为类似隧道开挖提供参考。     

改进的不平衡推力法在滑坡地震动力稳定性分析中的应用

不平衡推力法是目前规范推荐的地震作用下滑坡地质灾害的稳定性评价的主要研究手段之一.传统的不平衡推力法处理地震荷载采用单值输入,不考虑地震波在岩土体中传播过程中的时空变化.针对该问题,基于滑坡体地震波传播规律,改进形成了考虑多点地震作用的不平衡推力法.针对云南某高速公路沿线典型滑坡,开展不同地震烈度下的不平衡推力与安全系数分析,研究结果表明:考虑多点地震作用的滑坡稳定性较传统不平衡推力法降低明显;滑坡中部由于地形的锁固效应阻滑作用明显,在Ⅸ度地震下极易失稳.研究结果为滑坡地震动力稳定性评价提供了方法.