Quantifying the employment effects of micro-electronics

The paper attempts to quantify some of the compensatory effects on employment which may offset the direct displacement effects of faster technological change. It is argued that technological change will not necessarily increase unemployment levels. There are a number of compensating effects which may reduce and even outweigh any initial displacement effects. The study uses simulation techniques with a detailed model of the UK economy. One conclusion is that, even if the UK does not innovate as fast as its major competitors, a more rapid rate of diffusion of new technology may result in higher employment than would otherwise be the case.     

Social impacts of selected artificial intelligence applications : The Canadian context

Artificial intelligence (AI) will be a transforming technology because it will allow old things to be done in a dramatically different way-whether cheaper, faster, or simply better. This article looks at the social impacts of computerization and discusses natural language processing, machine translation, expert systems and the overall effect of AI applications on employment. It is concluded that AI applications are likely to develop in an evolutionary sequence rather than through one or more sudden breakthroughs. However, the sum of the changes which will result from the sequence of these suboptimal systems will almost certainly transform a wide range of human activities.     

技术引进、自主创新与就业——基于动态空间面板模型的实证研究

基于1995-2015年中国各省的面板数据,运用动态空间杜宾模型考察技术进步对就业的直接效应和空间溢出效应。结果显示：短期的技术引进促进了就业增长,但其对就业的溢出效应不显著;而长期的技术引进并不能持续地带来就业增加,反而会对就业造成破坏效应。自主创新对就业短期以破坏效应为主,但长期的自主创新促进了就业的增加,并且从经济距离权重下的就业效应来看,自主创新吸纳了相近经济水平区域的劳动力,空间溢出效应为负。现阶段我国自主创新的就业效应不受经济发展水平影响,但经济发展水平越高的地区,技术引进对就业的拉动作用越弱。     

Are labor-saving technologies lowering employment in the banking industry?

Labor statistics show that the average labor hours per dollar of banking output fell by more than 30% between 1992 and 2002. The proliferation of labor-saving technologies was widely believed to be the major reason. While the first-round effect of a labor-saving technology with a given level of output is a reduction in required labor per unit of output, the second-round effect is a reduction in wage costs that will increase output. Analytically, a given type of labor-saving technology is more likely to have a positive effect on employment if the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor, the price elasticity of demand, and the cost-reducing impact of the new technology are sufficiently large. The main empirical findings of this study are that labor-saving technologies, and the spillovers of these technologies, are associated with higher firm-level employment. These results seem robust to a wide range of specifications and controls.     

Current trends in hospital mergers and acquisitions

Healthcare reform will impact hospital consolidation in three key areas: Payment rates will decrease, indirectly encouraging consolidation by forcing hospitals to find new ways to reduce costs and increase negotiating clout with suppliers and payers. The cost of doing business will increase as hospitals spend more on compliance, technology, and physician employment. The ACO model will encourage hospital network formation by rewarding integrated healthcare systems that can reduce costs and improve quality.     

Securitization in Public Sector Finance

Already commonplace in the private sector, the securitization of future income streams is now being promoted in the public sector as a means of accessing investment capital. This article reports on a British university's securitization of 30 years' future rents on its student accommodation. Although the securitization made it possible to refurbish the residences, it has turned out to be costly in other respects. The authors conclude that investment returns in the public sector will rarely be sufficient to cover the finance costs of securitization; that the loss of the securitized income in labour-intensive public services is virtually certain to cost jobs; and that the accounting treatment of securitization needs to incorporate a realistic calculation of the movements in effective debt. Finally the article recommends that the value for money of any proposed public sector securitization should be independently checked by comparing its total cost of capital with the returns on its proposed uses.     

Pig in the middle: Overcoming inflexibility unemployment

The growth in unemployment is not inevitable. It is the product of an implicit consensus amongst the most powerful social actors, which instead of implementing rules adapted to the new technological and economic era, fight to preserve the old rules from which they continue to draw profit. In the short run, preserving the inflexible attitudes towards work (the single salaried job with full salary) is such that unemployment is bound to increase and social strife will intensify. A more flexible approach to work supply and demand is illustrated by the game ‘pig in the middle’, which, with an equitable distribution of gains in productivity directly related to the implementation of new technology, does not exclude full employment for all.     

The real consequences of bank mortgage lending standards

We examine the real effects of changes in bank mortgage loan underwriting standards by combining responses to the Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, application information from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act, and local housing market measures over 1990 to 2013. Tightened standards are associated with a 1 percentage point increase in denial rates and a 5% fall in loan issuance, controlling for applicant pool changes, but no change for predominantly-securitizing banks. In areas with more exposure to banks that have tightened standards, mortgage delinquency rates, house prices, new home sales, and residential construction employment fall substantially.     

Reform of the regulations on marginal employment lacks cohesion

Conclusion If the federal government is concerned to avoid restricting labour market dynamics in the low-income segment, it should seek a solution that tears down the ‘wall’ represented by the ceiling on marginal employment. This is not achieved by the envisaged reform concept. In fact the way forward was set out in the new government’s coalition agreement. There the government’s intention is expressed to incorporate all forms of paid employment, i.e. including self-employed activities, into the social insurance system. This would tear down the wall consisting of a high marginal tax and contribution burden that still blocks the transition from marginal work to regular part-time employment. Yet this would also require the courage to abolish flat-rate taxation in favour of an extension of individual income taxation. It seems that such a reform—as is the case with a comprehensive concept for a re-regulation of the labour market and a reform of social security—cannot be implemented in the short run. Consequently, the reform of marginal employment should be placed on the agenda of the ‘Alliance for Jobs’: these tripartite talks between employers, unions and the government, that are to be chaired by the Chancellor personally, should serve not only to bring about a reduction in German unemployment in the short-term, but also to find new, sustainable regulations for the labour market and social security. One advantage, at least, of the proposed reform of marginal employment is that it is in fact so marginal that it will not constitute an obstacle to a more comprehensive reform.     

The social organization of time

If all social life has been structured around a single model of employment founded on standard working hours, the reduction in working time, and in particular the diversification of working hours, is likely to effect radical transformation from both the economic and social points of view. This diversification will continue, it is argued, because of the new economic imperatives as much as sociocultural developments. It is forecasted that the old standard model is being replaced by much more flexible management of working hours and, hence, free time. What is not so clear is whether this flexibility in working conditions, which will bring with it a revolution at the individual, company and societal levels, will be equally benign for all.     

试论我国城镇就业风险的监测与管理

国际金融危机对实体经济产生的负面影响越来越大,中国的城镇就业风险也随之加大。因此,有必要进行城镇就业风险研究,帮助政府把握各项城镇就业风险因素的影响程度,制定相应政策并实施城镇就业风险管理。     

劳动力成本与利润差异对制造业升级的影响研究

引入单位劳动力成本和人均利润,考量劳动力成本与利润影响制造业升级的效应。结果表明：样本期间内虽然劳动力成本快速上涨,但劳动生产率增速更快,制造业整体单位劳动力成本没有上升,且有小幅下降,劳动密集型制造业仍有一定综合成本优势,但其人均利润低于制造业整体水平,比重总体下降,发展后劲不足,须转型升级;资本密集型虽然利润率相对较低,但人均利润为最高,比重不断上升,仍应是当前发展的重点;技术密集型比较优势不明显,急需突破核心技术,提高综合国际竞争力。     

我国非正规就业的发展研究

非正规就业在现实经济中已经大量存在,在缓解就业压力方面发挥了较大作用。随着市场化、非国有化、开放型经济的迅速建立,我国就业模式的非正规化严重滞后,这是造成我国失业率不断上升的重要原因。积极促进非正规就业的发展将成为符合我国基本国情的就业模式转变的基本方向;非正规就业将在今后10~15年间,成为我国就业的主要模式。     

Africa's dilemma in the transition to the new information and communication technologies

The emergence of the new information and communication technologies (ICTs) has dramatically altered theoretical and practical assumptions about the role of the communication media in socioeconomic development. Today, the role of ICTs in developed and developing societies remains a subject of debate, and Africa has been caught in the middle of this debate. Advocates of ICTs, for instance, point to how the West experienced the impact of industrial technology and found it to be an indispensable tool for development. If the new technologies are good for the West, will the same hold true for the developing world? For Africa, the question is a difficult one: will the new information and communication technologies launch Africa on the path of socioeconomic development or will they subject Africa to a new form of dependence? This article argues that the communication technology which will be adopted by Africans, irrespective of how the West moves, will be the one that is easily accessible and which poses no challenge to sociocultural practices. That communication technology of the future will be the telephone.     

Gap in relative importance of service activities closed

Conclusion Overall it is evident that the relative importance of services and service activity trends in the USA and west Germany is very similar. In other words the activity structure in Germany is indeed “modern”. Also in highly productive areas of production, value adding largely takes the form of service activities. Thus the employment problem in Germany results not from outdated activity structures; the causes are rather those macroeconomic reasons to which the DIW has repeatedly drawn attention⁷. German economic policy must ensure that the framework of macroeconomic conditions is changed to allow jobs to be created. Whether these jobs are created in certain branches or activities is of secondary importance. Having said this, in Germany, too, it is to be expected that more than two out of every three new jobs created will be service jobs. Even so, a quarter of new jobs will be created in industry.     

企业出口与工资差距——来自中国制造业的证据

从世界银行企业投资调查数据中可以发现,中国出口企业内部的工资差距高于非出口企业.由于处在生产技术结构与所在地区比较优势更为接近的行业中的企业,在没有保护和补贴的情况下具有自生能力,能够获得较高的剩余,所以这类企业在开放竞争的条件下资本积累速度更快,在资本技术互补的假设下,增加了对更高技能劳动力的需求.出口对企业内高级管...     

Evaluation of the long-term effects of technological trends on the structure of employment

A method is proposed to project the effects of new technologies on employment structure, utilizing technology-specific information. A three-dimensional technology evaluation scheme is developed based on sectors of the economy, fields of application of new technologies, and mechanisms through which new technologies influence key economic variables. Rated impacts of each field of application via each mechanism for each sector can then be ascribed an ordinate value, with a further round of judgment to aggregate over different technologies, mechanisms and sectors. The approach is applied to project changes in the sectoral structure of employment in Germany in the 1990s if the diffusion of new technologies is accelerated.     

Monitoring technical change and employment

In October 1981 the UK Manpower Services Commission approached the Technology Policy Unit of the University of Aston with the idea of establishing a ‘technology monitor’ to research into the introduction of new technology and its implications on employment and skills. The monitor was to look at specific short-term changes (over five to ten years) in employment levels and patterns that would be of relevance to policy makers in the manpower field. The author, who has led this research, describes the setting up of the monitor, its major aims and possible future developments.     

The forthcoming Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution: Its impact on society and firms

The impact of the industrial and digital (information) revolutions has, undoubtedly, been substantial on practically all aspects of our society, life, firms and employment. Will the forthcoming AI revolution produce similar, far-reaching effects? By examining analogous inventions of the industrial, digital and AI revolutions, this article claims that the latter is on target and that it would bring extensive changes that will also affect all aspects of our society and life. In addition, its impact on firms and employment will be considerable, resulting in richly interconnected organizations with decision making based on the analysis and exploitation of “big” data and intensified, global competition among firms. People will be capable of buying goods and obtaining services from anywhere in the world using the Internet, and exploiting the unlimited, additional benefits that will open through the widespread usage of AI inventions. The paper concludes that significant competitive advantages will continue to accrue to those utilizing the Internet widely and willing to take entrepreneurial risks in order to turn innovative products/services into worldwide commercial success stories. The greatest challenge facing societies and firms would be utilizing the benefits of availing AI technologies, providing vast opportunities for both new products/services and immense productivity improvements while avoiding the dangers and disadvantages in terms of increased unemployment and greater wealth inequalities.     

Anticipated growth and business cycles in matching models

In a business cycle model that incorporates a standard matching framework, employment increases in response to news shocks, even though the wealth effect associated with the increase in expected productivity reduces labor force participation. The reason is that the matching friction induces entrepreneurs to increase investment in new projects and vacancies early. If there is underinvestment in new projects in the competitive equilibrium, then the efficiency gains associated with an increase in employment make it possible that consumption, employment, output, as well as the investment in new and existing projects jointly increase long before the actual increase in productivity materializes. If there is no underinvestment, then investment in existing projects decreases, but total investment, consumption, employment, and output still jointly increase.