Neo-Malthusians and Cornucopians put to the test: Global 2000 and The Resourceful Earth revisited

There is an on-going debate between neo-Malthusians and Cornucopians about the state and trends of the world's environment. Two key contributions to this debate were The Global 2000 Report to the President and, The Resourceful Earth, both published at the beginning of the 1980s and looking forward to the year 2000. This paper compares the predictions and analysis of the two reports with the situation in the year 2000 to ascertain their accuracy. In terms of predicting the future, The Resourceful Earth relied heavily upon examining past trends as giving the best indication of the future; Global 2000 gave somewhat less emphasis to past trends and also tried to analyze directly the factors that it saw as being likely to influence the future. Broadly speaking, Global 2000 was overly pessimistic, while The Resourceful Earth was more accurate in predicting that with many basic parameters relating to human existence the trends of improvement of earlier years would continue. Neither report dealt adequately with questions relating to adaptive capacity and its impact on predictions of the future.     

Beyond Neo-Malthusians and Cornucopians: comment on Chenoweth and Feitelson

In a recent paper in Futures, Chenoweth and Feitelson test of the validity of the projections of the Global 2000 Report to the President and The Resourceful Earth: A Response to Global 2000. This commentary critiques their approach, focusing on their comparison of the two studies' Year 2000 projections, and the pitfalls for near-term tests of long-term projections. Empirically, their paper does little to resolve the neo-Malthusian and Cornucopian debate. Nonetheless, given the past history of this acrimonious debate, their conclusions may undermine current efforts to balance global economic, social, and environmental concerns.     

Prometheus unbound

Professor Nicholas Onuf argued in the February 1984 issue of Futures that those participating in the revival of interest in long waves of economic activity had generally failed to relate their analyses to the debate on growth spawned by Limits to Growth. The challenge is taken up in this article, which relates the two debates in terms of the role of technology in long-term growth and cycles; changes in ‘technological paradigm’ are seen as a major feature of each successive growth cycle. The article finally discusses the effects of paradigm change on employment and investment, and confronts the central issue of Onuf's paper—the social and political effects of the micro-electronics revolution.     

Ultimate confusion: The economics of Julian Simon

This article argues that there are profound mistakes and exaggerations in Simon's influential and popular ideas. It discusses Simon's denial of resource finitude and his views that neither ecology nor entropy exists. Finally it looks at Simon's The Resourceful Earth as an attack on Global 2000.     

Exchange rates,innovations and forecasting

In this paper an ex-post forecasting experiment is performed on the basis of a version of the ‘news’ model of exchange rate determination. For several exchange rates the ‘news’ formulation of monetary exchange rate models leads to relatively accurate ex-post exchange rate forecasts at a number of forecasting horizons. For a majority of the exchange rates studied, however, the results do not compare favorably with those obtained from the naive random walk forecasting rule. Thus, the findings in this article provide mixed evidence with regard to a suggestion in the literature that the finding by Meese and Rogoff that structural models do not even outperform the random walk in an ex-post forecasting experiment, may be due to the fact that these models were not properly tested in a ‘news’ framework.     

When governments forecast

This article looks at the forecasting industry as turning out products of more interest to museum curators than corporate executives, policymakers etc. It is generally skeptical of most attempts to divine the future —skepticism turning to deep concern when a particular forecast is used to justify government in making a decision better left to the discretion of free, rational citizens. The article looks at the problems of forecasting, the risks involved and, remarkably, how little the reputations of global forecasters seem to be affected by past statements. Finally, it discusses the effectiveness of a separate forecasting body, apart from government which would have power without responsibility. It considers The Resourceful Earth as a sound and cautious analysis, representing itself as a private effort by private individuals, which does not encourage unwarranted emphasis to its conclusions.     

3D,SF and the future

This article assesses the use of ‘science fiction’ (SF) in visioning or prototyping the potential economic and social consequences of so-called 3D printing. What is becoming clear to many commentators as well as science fiction writers is how rapid prototyping, or 3D printing more generally, could permit many final objects to be made near to or even by consumers on just-in-time ‘printing’ machines. This revolution in making would have many implications for the economy-and-society in the future by seriously augmenting, or possibly replacing, current systems of manufactured production, long-distance transportation and consumption. These 3D technologies have featured in SF works, including Neal Stephenson's The Diamond Age, Ian McDonald's Brasyl, Charles Stross's Rule 34 and Cory Doctorow's Makers. The article reports on current research seeking to understand the implications of what may be a major new sociotechnical system in the making. Some creative uses of SF are presented in a professional workshop setting. As well the article documents the use of SF as a methodological prototype in forecasting alternative scenarios of the future. SF prototyping could be a powerful tool in the social science repertoire when put into action in forecasting possible technology and business futures.     

Carpe the academy: Dismantling higher education and prefiguring critical utopias through action research

This paper engages with the challenge of re-imagining higher education. We start from the position that the ascent of the increasingly corporatized university is deeply problematic precisely because of the neoliberal realist position on ‘the future’ that it assumes and perpetuates: the view that there is no alternative to neoliberal capitalist market principles, that present and future realities can diverge only to the extent permitted by existing market forces and rationales (Amsler, 2011). In this context, ‘education’ takes the form of preparing and socializing the next generation of workers: a future focus severely limited in the possibilities it considers. Thus we are faced with a mutually-constitutive relationship where constrained visions of future needs and demands serve to constrain present educational offerings; a dynamic which becomes self-reinforcing and which admits little disruption. In this paper, we draw on the concrete body of practice known as action research to consider how we might prize open spaces for thinking much more expansively about what ‘the future’ might entail, and what forms of education and organization are necessary in the present to keep open, rather than shut down, diverse possibilities and democratic debate around this. We focus on critical utopian action research and systemic action research as illustrative of key qualities of prefigurative and critical utopian engagement with educational presents and futures. We conclude that the capture of the university by neoliberal logics can be resisted and challenged through radical methodologies, like action research, which explicitly set out to be ongoingly anti-hegemonic, critical, self-reflexive, pluralistic, and non-recuperative (Firth, 2013, Garforth, 2009).     

Stock option use by Australian IPOs

This paper examines the use of stock options by Australian IPOs. Stock options in this setting exhibit heterogeneity of ‘in the moneyness’ attributes. We can therefore identify incentive ‘out of the money’ options and reward ‘at or in the money’ options and study their usage. The setting also features options granted to employees (CEO, executives, non-executive directors, and managers) and external parties (e.g., underwriters, lenders, seed capitalists, and promoters). We examine the motives for granting stock options with different ‘in the moneyness’ attributes to employees and external parties, as well as the performance outcomes. Our results suggest ‘in the moneyness’ attributes of options vary according to uncertainties about growth options, general operating risks, and/or agency risks relating to the use of IPO proceeds; however, these relations do not translate into robust links from the option grants to future performance.     

Professional Research,Lobbying and Intangibles: A Review Essay

The publication in January 1992 of The Valuation of Intangible Assets, a report by Arthur Andersen & Co., has again stimulated the ‘brands’ debate. The Report claims to present a range of valuation methods for intangibles that command a ‘consensus’ among preparers, and that overcome the problems of subjectivity, consistency, separability and relevance identified in earlier research into brand accounting. This paper argues that the concept of separability, upon which these claims depend, is far from clear. The Andersen Report also raises questions as to the nature of its appeal to consensus, the role of codification in determining accounting policy, and the status of professional ‘research’.     

Faith advocacy and the EU anti-poverty process: a case of Caritas

Caritas in Europe is both the EU's largest voluntary sector network of any kind, and also comprises Europe's biggest religious NGO. This article tracks the Europeanization of its advocacy as part of an European Commission-funded initiative to engage civil society networks in the improvement of national social inclusion strategy designs. Noting the impact of state structure and civil service actions on the form and impact of such faith-based advocacy, the article draws out fresh insights for the UK debate on the role of religious organizations in welfare reform and advocacy, not least the appropriate assessment of ‘the local’, ‘motivating ideas’ and the need for the development of a new and ‘adaptive leadership’ style by public managers.     

Quis Auditoret Ipsos Auditores? Can Auditors Be Trusted?

This article explores the extent to which the audit profession and its practices promote public trust in audits. Differences between auditors and non‐auditors as to beliefs about the role of a financial report audit have long been discussed under the term ‘expectations gap’. However, this prior debate has tended to focus on non‐auditors’ alleged misunderstanding of audit processes without a corresponding understanding on the part of the profession as to why the public might place its trust in auditors. The study explores the nature of trust in an auditing context and notes that like any profession, auditing faces practical limitations but the inability to directly observe the conduct of audits combined with professional status create an ‘over trust’ expectation in the public. Changes in audit practices and culture have also exposed the profession to criticism. The article seeks to offer one approach by which the auditing profession can restore public confidence; namely, evidence‐based practice, which has proven effective in improving the quality of practice in medicine. Adoption of a reflective evidence‐based approach to audit practice offers the promise of greater audit quality and an improvement in the profession's accountability and public confidence.     

R. J. Chambers on Securities and Obscurities: Making a Case for the Reform of the Law of Company Accounts in the 1970s

This study examines the contribution of Raymond J. Chambers to the British inflation accounting debate in the early‐to‐mid 1970s, from the perspective of the reception of his book, Securities and Obscurities: A Case for Reform of the Law of Company Accounts, published in 1973. To structure the empirical narrative, drawing on previously unpublished documents from the R. J. Chambers Archives, we employ Czarniawska and Joerges’ ( 1996 ) notion of the ‘travel of ideas’, and Mumford’s ( 1979 ) observation of the existence of ‘inflation accounting debate cycles’. The result is a narrative that traces the environmental and material circumstances that led to Chambers’ book having a lesser impact on the British inflation debate than one would expect based on the international exposure of his ideas, his influence at the time, and the empirical rigour of his proposal. The purpose of this exercise is to assess how contextual factors, such as the choice of publisher, use of promotional material, and distribution methods, can be as (or more) important than the substance of the proposed ideas, arguments, and solutions.     

How bad can short termism be?—A study of the consequences of high hurdle discount rates and low payback thresholds

Survey evidence suggests that hurdle rates used in DCF analysis are often considerably in excess of any plausible estimate of firms’ cost of capital, and that top level decision makers often impose additional short payback thresholds. This paper focuses on the value loss that can arise under such ‘short termist’ decision criteria. It is shown that using such decision rules can help to protect the firm against the total value loss that can arise from the application of the naïve NPV decision rule, and that, for projects with growth prospects and/or moderate or greater volatility in future operating cash flows, the value loss (relative to ‘optimal decision-making’) which arises when firms impose fixed ‘short termist’ thresholds can be quite small.     

Accounting in Babel? Constructing social accounting as a multi-logical performance

All social practices reproduce certain taken-for-granteds about what exists. Constructions of existence (ontology) go together with notions of what can be known of these things (epistemology), and how such knowledge might be produced (methodology)—along with questions of value or ethics. Increasingly, reflective practitioners—whatever their practice—are exploring the assumptions they ‘put to work’ and the conventions they reproduce. Questions are being asked about how to ‘cope’ with change in a postmodern world, and ethical issues are gaining more widespread attention. If we look at these constructions then we often find social practices: (a) give central significance to the presumption of a single real world; (b) centre a knowing subject who should strive to be separate from knowable objects, i.e. people and things that make up the world; (c) a knowing subject who can produce knowledge (about the real world) that is probably true and a matter of fact rather than value (including ethics). Social practices of this sort often produce a right–wrong debate in which one individual or group imposes their ‘facts’ (and values) on others. Further they often do so using claims to greater or better knowledge (e.g. science, facts …) as their justifications.We use the term “relational constructionism” as a summary reference to certain assumptions and arguments that define our “thought style”. They are as follows: fact and value are joined (rather than separate); the knower and the known—self and other—are co-constructed; knowledge is always a social affair—a local–historical–cultural (social) co-construction made in conversation, in other kinds of action, and in the artefacts of human activities (‘frozen’ actions so to speak), and so; multiple inter-actions simultaneously (re)produce multiple local cultures and relations, this said; relations may impose one local reality (be mono-logical) or give space to multiplicity (be multi-logical). In this view, the received view of science is but one (socially constructed) way of world making, as is social constructionism, and different ways have different—and very real—consequences.In this paper, we take our relational constructionist style of thinking to examine differing constructions of foot and mouth disease (FMD)¹ in the UK. We do so in order to highlight the dominant relationship construction. We argue that this could be metaphorised as ‘accounting in Babel’—as multiple competing monologues—many of which remained very local and subordinated by a dominant logic. However, from a relational constructionist point of view, it is also possible to argue that social accounting can be done in a more multi-logical way that gives space to dialogue and multiplicity. In the present (relational constructionist) view, accounting is no longer ‘just’ a question of knowledge and methodology but also a question of value and power. To render accounting practices more ethical they must be more multi-voiced and enable ‘power to’ rather than ‘power over’.     

Preparing for the unknown… unknowns: ‘doomsday’ prepping and disaster risk anxiety in the United States

This article examines the collapse-based thinking energising ‘doomsday’ prepping: a growing American phenomenon centred on storing food, water and weapons for the purpose of surviving disasters. Existing understandings of prepping indicate that its practitioners are driven to prepare by peculiar and delusional certainty that apocalyptic collapse will occur in the near future. This view, however, has not yet been tested by empirical research. This article draws on ethnography with 39 preppers in 18 American states to present a new understanding of this phenomenon, as it shows prepping consistently being practiced in the absence of both apocalyptic predictions and certainty regarding the future occurrence of disaster. Demonstrating that preppers’ activities are undergirded by precautionary projections around numerous non-apocalyptic ‘threats’, the article argues that prepping principally responds to uncertain anxieties around disaster risks. Moreover, it establishes that these imprecise anxieties are regularly influenced by preppers’ consumption of disaster-based speculation in mainstream news media – showing that their concerns tend to emerge in response to numerous disaster risks that are widely reported and recognised in wider American culture, rather than marginal conceptions of ‘threats’. The article, therefore, contends that, rather than being a marginal apocalyptic practice, prepping is a phenomenon with clear, previously unacknowledged links to broader risk communications and concerns in the twenty-first century United States – one that must be understood as a reflection of the broader resonance of disaster-based speculation and uncertainty in this cultural context.     

The Third Policeman: ‘The true and fair view’, language and the habitus of accounting

This paper explores the role and context of the ‘true and fair view’ (‘TFV’) in accounting and auditing. Utilising the work of Bourdieu as a lens, the paper argues that the world of the TFV is a subjective world with which we think we are objectively familiar. Bourdieu's ‘practical theory’ of habitus suggests that the TFV is shaped by the practice of ‘native virtuosos’ who have a ‘feel for the game’. The paper argues that the conceptualisation of the TFV privileges practice and authenticates the accounting habitus. Hence, whilst language maintains and reinforces social structures, it is in turn created by the routines of practice. By dominating the declaration of the TFV, the auditor effectively reinforces the status quo and the constitution of hierarchy and inequity that exists in the accounting field: the TFV, in Bourdieu's terms, ‘becomes what they are’.     

The scaling-up of Neighbourhood Care: From experiment towards a transformative movement in healthcare

To meet present and future challenges in healthcare, radically new approaches are needed that contribute to transforming the healthcare system. In the Netherlands this transition was envisioned by the Transition Programme Long-term Care (2007–2010) as “a fundamental change towards a more human centred, affordable and socially embedded healthcare system”. One of the experiments in this programme was Neighbourhood Care (in Dutch “Buurtzorg”): small-scale, self-managed teams of nurses who provide high-quality homecare in neighbourhoods. This article looks at Buurtzorg from the perspective of transition studies, building on the framework of ‘deepening, broadening and scaling-up’ transition experiments. We analyse how Buurtzorg could rapidly develop from a local experiment to a network of more than 800 teams and also spread to different care domains and abroad. The rapid development of Buurtzorg is explained by identifying their strategic activities, the alignment of contextual factors and their strategic position as outsider towards the regime. We conclude that Buurtzorg has become a ‘symbol’ in a transformative movement that can contribute to a future transition in healthcare. This case study contributes to theoretical and practice-oriented knowledge on how a transition experiment in a social domain can surpass the experimental phase, identifying key strategic activities for niche-mainstreaming.     

Analysing corporate insolvency in the Gulf Cooperation Council using logistic regression and multidimensional scaling

In this paper, we examine corporate insolvency in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region between 2004 and 2011. Data comprises 28 financial ratio variables from 112 firms. We use Logit regression with best-subset selection criteria to investigate the predictive value of the ratios in the GCC context, particularly cash flow-based ratios. We also examine the main dimensions of the ratios, and the weights firms attach to them, using 3-way Multidimensional Scaling (MDS). We find that a parsimonious Logit model with the profitability ratio EBITTL, the leverage ratio TLTA and the cash flow ratios CFFOTA and CFFOCL can predict insolvency, ex-ante, with 84.8, 95.6 and 73.9 % overall, type I and II accuracy, respectively. From MDS, we uncover four financial-ratio dimensions: (i) ‘Non-strategic sales activities’, (ii) ‘Profitability and financial stability balance’, (iii) ‘Sales activities against capital conversion’; and (iv) ‘Market value against cash generation’. Insolvent firms appear very specific and attach most salience to the ‘Non-strategic sales activities’ dimension, unlike solvent firms which attach more salience to the other three dimensions. Therefore, the results imply that, to reduce susceptibility to insolvency in the GCC, managers should focus less on non-strategic sales activities.