Resource scarcity and economic growth in poor developing countries: Missing links in Simon's cornucopian philosophy

Underlying Julian Simon's cornucopian philosophy is a model of economic—demographic interaction which derives normative views in favour of moderate population growth. This article criticizes Simon's unsatisfactory treatment of discounting in this procedure, and, more significantly, his denial of mankind—ecosystems interactions. Analysis of the complex interactive effects of population change on economic growth and of the broad system of factors driving resource depletion in developing countries, serves to undermine Simon's ‘false optimism’.     

Exchange rates and ‘news’: Reply

In this reply I arge that the results of my 1982 article in this Journal are not affected, either at a theoretical or empirical level, by Longworth's (1984) comments. However, I also argue that Longworth's proposition of including variables pertaining to other countries in empirical market efficiency studies should be investigated further.     

Prediction of return with the minimum variance zero-beta portfolio

This paper tests prediction of returns on stocks using a direct estimate of the minimum variance zero beta portfolio z. The composition of this portfolio is implicit in Black's paper on capital market equilibrium in the absence of riskless borrowing or lending. Portfolios of stocks drawn from the same industries are used to estimate z. The predictions of Black's equilibrium return equation are compared with those of cross-sectional regressions of return on risk.     

Plato and Delphi

Plato had an unparalleled influence on political and utopian thought through his Republic. Recently, Professor Clarke has emphasised the “Primacy of Plato” for the literature of the ideal state.¹ Some qualifications are offered here to Clarke's appraisal of Plato. These qualifications bear upon his characterisation of Plato's “extraordinary social insights and his exceptional power of thought”. They should be of particular interest to the futures researcher, as they are related to Delphi.     

The demand for and supply of deposits by credit unions: The Caisses Populaires' case reply and comments

Smith points out rightly that the symbol R refers to two different, though each time well defined, concepts in Chateau's (1980) article in this Journal. His claim, however, that this leads to a misspecification of the theoretical model is erroneous, and is refuted. Further it is shown explicitly under which conditions the maximization of expected utility of reserves is consistent with balance-sheet growth. For the Caisses' system acting within the Quebec institutional and regulatory environment, the growth-cum-managerial-discretion model is theoretically appealing, as well as supported by the available empirical evidence.     

Trends in the chemical industry

In March 1970, Futures published an analysis of the major trends affecting the chemical industry's general structure and an assessment of its future operations and market potential. Although the authors score highly for the correct identification of trends within the chemical industry itself—apart from seeing a trend towards even bigger chemical complexes—they assumed a continuing development of major postwar social, political and economic trends in the industry's environment. The major shifts which occurred in the 1970s served to undermine the basic assumptions on which the authors' projections were made.     

The government budget constraint and standard macrotheory

Christ, Blinder-Solow, Brunner-Meltzer and others have discussed the implications of deficits raising the public's stock of bonds or money. Among the major findings of this literature are that bond-financed deficits may raise income more than money-financed deficits, that the former may lead to instability, and that open market purchases ultimately lower nominal income. This paper shows that these seemingly revolutionary results (though not all of the results of this literature) follow simply from a textbook Keynesian or monetarist model. However, Blinder and Solow's conclusion that crowding-out cannot be complete is refuted.     

1948 and not nineteen eighty-four

This article marks the return of I.F. Clarke to the pages of Futures. Those readers who have followed Futures since our first number in September 1968 will recall his long-running series on the development of futuristic fiction and the coming of modern forecasting techniques. He likes to be known as the oldest inhabitant of Futures so far. Professor Clarke was once described, with some accuracy, as ‘Mr Future’ by a Glasgow newspaper. The style recognized the work he has done in the investigation of the many ways in which our ideas about the future have evolved and have found expression in science fiction, imaginary wars, ideal states, Orwellian nightmares and in the proliferation of futurological studies that have swept the world since Ossip K. Flechtheim coined the term futurologist in 1943. This specially commissioned article on Orwell's true place in futures studies serves as an hors d'oeuvre to a new series in Futures by Professor Clarke: “An almanac of anticipations” will begin in the next issue.     

Engagement partner specialization and corporate disclosure transparency

This paper explores the association of audit partners' industry specialization with corporate disclosure transparency and the latter's informativeness. The distinctive institutional designs of partner signature requirement and Information Disclosure and Transparency Ranking System (IDTRS) adopted in Taiwan allow us to empirically address the issue. We posit and find that the rankings from the IDTRS are higher for firms audited by industry specialist engagement partners than for firms audited by non-specialist engagement partners. Additionally, the results show that the probability of informed trade (PIN) proxy for information asymmetry is negatively associated with the rankings for clients of industry specialist engagement partners, but not for clients of industry non-specialist engagement partners. The results are robust with respect to alternative estimation method and alternative measures of industry specialization. Overall, the evidence suggests that industry specialist engagement partners enhance the credibility of corporate disclosure transparency, through which information asymmetry is further declined. The evidence provides policy implications to the partner signature requirement adopted in Taiwan and China.     

A note on the government budget restraint

In a recent article in this Journal, Christ presented a dynamic macroeconomic model which has the striking implication of instability under bond financing of budgetary deficits. In this paper, we show that the stability (and other fundamental) properties of Christ's model are closely related to the specification of the exogenous fiscal variables. This point is demonstrated through an analysis of Christ's model in which several definitions of government spending are taken as exogenous. As an alternative to this approach, we explore the implications of models in which alternative policy goals are specified as exogenous — goals such as a balanced or a zero gap between actual and potential output.     

Commentary: A proposal for theoretical models of stakeholder perceptions of a new financial reporting system

This commentary explores the article by Fontes et al. published in this issue of Accounting Forum. They argue that the scope of IFRS continues to widen across the world, using a number of social science disciplines to discuss stakeholder perceptions of change. The commentary uses Hegel's Science of Logic to situate their arguments through four key theoretical approaches that are prominent in the accounting literature. Ultimately, this has the potential to position IASB frameworks in such a way as to challenge the economic and neoliberal logic on which modern accounting is based.     

Some aspects of the monetary economics of Richard Cantillon

This article examines several key aspects of the monetary economics in Richard Cantillon's Essai sur la Nature du Commerce en Général (1755 viewed from a modern monetarist perspective with special focus on monetary dynamics. After establishing the quantity theory framework of Cantillon's analysis, the article reviews the following aspects of his work: his theory of monetary disequilibrium; his analysis of the open economy; his treatment of the interest rate; his treatment of expectations and information; and his analysis of monetary induced business fluctuations and the use of monetary policy.     

Bank acquisition of mortgage firms and stockholders' wealth: An empirical analysis

This paper examines the behavior of the returns on the securities of bank holding companies (BHCs) acquiring mortgage firms after the announcement of such an acquisition and the release of the Federal Reserve Board's decision. The stockholders of acquiring BHCs do not realize abnormal returns following the announcement of the acquisition of a mortgage firm. This reconfirms previous findings in unregulated industries and is consisten with the hypothesis that any economic rent which is generated by such an acquisition is captured by the acquired mortgage firm: This implies that there exist BHCs — other than the acquiring one — that could also affect a profitable merger with the mortgage firm. Another finding is that stockholders of BHCs that were 3enied permission to acquire mortgage firms sustained significant losses during the five weeks following the Board's decision.     

Optimal expectations and the extreme information assumptions of ‘rational expectations’ macromodels

‘One might reply that the rationality of a person's choice does not depend upon how much he knows, but only upon how well he reasons from whatever information he has, however incomplete. Our decision is perfectly rational provided that we face up to our circumstances and do the best we can.’ (John Rawls, A Theory of Justice)     

Accounting in organized anarchies: Understanding and designing accounting systems in ambiguous situations

This paper explores the relationship between organizations in ambiguous situations, the technology of choice and the uses of internal accounting systems (systems of cost accumulation, performance evaluation and budgetary control). Accounting systems are examined in terms of the two elements of March's technology of foolishness (Civilokonomen, May 1971, pp. 7–12). Relaxation of traditional prohibitions in choice behaviour against imitation, coercion and rationalization suggest that accounting systems might be understood both in terms of their impact on sustaining and influencing an organization's culture and language and in terms of their ideological and legitimizing influence in maintaining systems of power and control in organizations. Allowing playfulness in the choice process suggests that accounting systems might be designed to facilitate creativity and innovation in organizations, insofar as these characteristics are appropriate in contributing to organizational effectiveness.     

Interest rate management in LDC's

The McKinnon argument that higher Time Deposit rates raise output and lower inflation in the short run and increase medium-term growth by raising the savings rate are shown to depered crucially on the assumption that portfolio shifts into TD's come out of an asset providing less intermediation than the banking system. We show that if instead the shift is out of an asset providing more intermediation (e.g., loans on a curbmarket), raising TD rates is contractionary in the short run, may have negative impacts on growth and can lead to more rather than less inflation in the short run.     

Revolutionary change in our worldview?

Fritjof Capra has become internationally known through two pioneering books, both best sellers, titled The Tao of Physics and The Turning Point. His third book, Green Politics which he wrote with Charlene Spretnak, was published in May 1984. The central theme which runs through all his work is the paradigmatic change in the Western view of the world. This article is taken from several conversations which Bart van Steenbergen had with Fritjof Capra. It begins with some background information and then looks at Fritjof Capra's work over the past 15 years.     

Transport,energy, and community design

The world's urban areas have a higherper capita consumption of resources than rural areas—and soon they will contain most of the world's population. The planned development of rational cities, within an integrated transport strategy, holds the key to efficient resource use. Energy consumption can be reduced by designing cities with the accent on accessibility rather than mobility. The problems of urbanisation are worldwide, and require an international agency to coordinate the exchange of information and expertise.     

Long-term metals forecasting: The track record: 1910–1964

In 90 forecasts published in journals, about 70% of the individual predictions proved correct; partly because they were fairly vague. However, two major reports dealing with long-term metals forecasting were much less accurate. Unexpectedly high rates of economic growth and technological change (since 1952) contributed to the Paley Commission's inaccuracy; whereas the failure of expected developments to occur (after 1964) upset the predictions of Resources in America's Future.     

Prometheus unbound

Professor Nicholas Onuf argued in the February 1984 issue of Futures that those participating in the revival of interest in long waves of economic activity had generally failed to relate their analyses to the debate on growth spawned by Limits to Growth. The challenge is taken up in this article, which relates the two debates in terms of the role of technology in long-term growth and cycles; changes in ‘technological paradigm’ are seen as a major feature of each successive growth cycle. The article finally discusses the effects of paradigm change on employment and investment, and confronts the central issue of Onuf's paper—the social and political effects of the micro-electronics revolution.