International outsourcing versus FDI under contractual incompleteness

This paper empirically analyses the boundaries of a large sample of Italian multinational enterprises, with firm-level data from Capitalia, AIDA and Centrale dei Bilanci. Within the broad array of feasible contracts in a foreign country, we focus on the trade-off between international outsourcing and foreign direct investment (FDI), in a context of contractual incompleteness. Probit estimates reveal that Italian enterprises operating in highly relation-specific environments are more prone to international outsourcing than FDI, consistently with recent theoretical contributions on the topic. Results are robust to different specifications and alternative measures of contractual incompleteness and international outsourcing.     

Outward Foreign Direct Investment Patterns of Italian Firms in the European Union's Emission Trading Scheme*

We consider the role played by the European Union's Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) as a possible driver of outward foreign direct investment (FDI) for Italian manufacturing firms. Using a panel dataset of about 22,000 firms covering the first two phases of the EU ETS and the period before the EU ETS, we measure the patterns of FDI towards countries not covered by the EU ETS. The results show that the EU ETS had a weak effect on the number of new subsidiaries abroad (extensive margin), while it had a larger impact on production taking place in foreign subsidiaries (intensive margin), especially in trade-intensive sectors.     

The two ways of FDI R&D spillovers: evidence from the French manufacturing industry

Using French firm-level panel data, this study investigates R&D spillovers from inward foreign direct investment (FDI) with respect to both horizontal and vertical linkages (backward and forward). Using a Crepon, Duguet and Mairesse (CDM) model, we estimate an R&D-augmented Cobb–Douglas production function to assess the impact of R&D spillovers on firm performance. The results emphasize that international spillovers (from foreign affiliates to local firms) have a greater effect on firm performance than reverse spillovers (from local firms to foreign affiliates) and are more likely to be backward than forward. Moreover, the effect of backward spillovers depends on a firm’s absorptive capacity and is amplified in the case of outsourcing relationships.     

Exploring outward FDI and the choice of destination: evidence from Swedish firm-level data

Using Swedish firm-level data on all firms and their affiliates abroad, we investigate what observable firm and country characteristics affect the size of an affiliate in a particular destination. We employ the richness of the data to investigate the importance of destination country factors in explaining firm outward FDI activities and distinguish between the factors that affect such activities in manufacturing versus services firms as well as vertical versus horizontal investments. Our results lend support to existing theories of multinational activity of manufacturing but not services firms. We also find observable differences between vertical and horizontal manufacturing firms that are not always explained by theory.     

Investment climate,outward orientation and manufacturing firm productivity: new empirical evidence

Drawing on the World Bank Enterprise Surveys, we revisit the link between firm-level investment climate and productive performance for a panel of enterprises surveyed twice in time in 70 developing countries and 11 manufacturing industries. We take advantage of the time dimension available for an increasing number of countries to tackle the endogeneity issue stressed in previous studies. We also use pertinent econometric techniques to address other biases inherent in the data (e.g.measurement errors, missing observations and multicollinearity). Our results reinforce previous findings by validating, with a larger than usual sample of countries and industries, the importance of a larger set of environment variables. We show that infrastructure quality, information & communication technologies, skills and experience of the labour force, cost of and access to financing, security and political stability, competition and government relation contribute to firms’ and countries’ performances gap. The empirical analysis also illustrates that firms which choose an outward orientation have higher productivity level. Nevertheless, outward oriented enterprises are more sensitive to investment climate limitations. These findings have important policy implications by showing which dimensions of the business environment, in which industry, could help manufacturing firms to be more competitive in the present context of increasing globalization.     

Foreign direct investment,heterogeneous workers and employment security: Evidence from Germany

We analyze how foreign direct investment (FDI) affects employment security using administrative microdata for German employees. Measuring FDI intensity at the industry level enables us to take into account the sum of direct effects at multinationals as well as indirect effects of FDI throughout the affected industry. We find that both inward and outward FDI significantly reduce employment security. This is particularly the case for inward FDI coming from the western part of the European Union as well as for outward FDI going to Central and Eastern Europe. The effects are sizeable for older and low‐skilled workers.     

Domestic institutions,agglomerations and foreign direct investment in Europe

Recent developments in the economics of location emphasise the endogeniety of locational advantages during the process of European integration. We explore the relative importance of host country labour institutions and agglomerations using an industry-level panel data set on the location of investments by US multinational firms in Europe. The results indicate that centripetal and centrifugal forces are both important. New growth theories also suggest that international transfers of technology and knowledge through FDI may affect the performance of host economies. We consider the benefits from inward investment in four EU economies and present empirical evidence of significant spillovers from inward investment on technical progress. The potential for agglomerations to attract new investments which then influence the growth process has important implications for national policies, as it means that the size of nations is to be determined in the process of European integration, not just taken as given.     

Beyond natural resources: horizontal and vertical FDI diversification in Sub-Saharan Africa

This article uses firm-level data to analyse the drivers of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to the manufacturing and services sectors of 30 Sub-Saharan African countries. It shows that improving the investment climate helps to attract aggregate FDI. By analysing disaggregate FDI data, the article establishes that there is considerable contrast in behaviour between vertical FDI (foreign firms producing for export) and horizontal FDI (foreign firms producing for local markets). In particular, the latter firms are attracted to areas with higher trade regulations, highlighting their interest in protected markets. Furthermore, horizontal FDI is more affected by financing and human capital constraints and less affected by infrastructure and institutional constraints than vertical FDI is.     

FORECASTING FDI EQUITY INCOME FOR THE DANISH BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

Late and significant revisions are often observed in FDI equity income in many countries, hampering the quality of preliminary balance of payments statistics. We test a range of models on Danish data and find that forecasts for FDI equity income based on a combination of past profitability and consensus data for changes in expected private consumption growth outperform forecasts solely based on historical profitability. When the refined models are applied to the Danish balance of payments, the largest improvements are observed for outward and inward FDI separately. Revisions of net FDI equity income only decrease marginally because the significant revisions in gross terms resulting from the historical models have a tendency to (partly) cancel out each other on a net basis.     

技术溢出、效率提升与技术寻求型FDI研究

获取技术溢出是技术寻求型FDI的主要目的,企业生产效率的有效提升是其成功的关键。利用寡头竞争模型,论证了一个技术寻求型FDI企业成功进行对外直接投资的条件:只有当获得技术溢出后整体生产效率高于发达国家企业时,以获取先进技术为目的的FDI才能成功。这对于我国企业成功进行对外直接投资具有重要启示。     

FDI into transition economies

The article explores the determination of foreign direct investment (FDI) into the Balkan transition economies – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania and Serbia. Detailed FDI inflows to Southeast Europe are analysed to determine the main differences in the volume, timing and sectoral structure of FDI within the region and in comparison to the Central East European countries. A gravity model for all transition economies during 1990–2011 is then estimated to assess whether the factors driving FDI to the Western Balkans are different. They are found to be so; even when the size of their economies, distance from the source economies, institutional quality and prospects of EU membership are taken into account, Western Balkans countries receive less FDI than other transition countries. These issues are of policy relevance for the Balkan economies and ought to contribute to the current debate on the ‘new growth model’.     

金融发展、FDI与中国制造业出口绩效——基于新新贸易理论的实证分析

本文以新近发展的新新贸易理论为基础,将中国80余万条制造业出口数据归类到我国国民经济分类制造业,分别使用Probit模型和Heckman选择模型检验了金融发展和FDI对中国制造业出口二元边际的影响。研究表明,在控制其他影响因素的前提下,融资约束是影响企业出口决策的重要因素,而金融发展有助于企业缓解融资约束,使其能够在最优状态下生产,不仅有利其进入出口市场,还扩大了其出口份额,从而对贸易的扩展边际和集约边际都有积极的影响。此外,FDI缓解了我国出口企业面临的信贷约束,促进融资依赖性行业出口的二元边际,一定程度上发挥了与金融发展同样的作用,进一步的估计表明,FDI是通过替代银行信贷而发挥作用的。     

The effects of company taxation in EU accession countries on German FDI1

This article investigates how company taxation affects German foreign direct investment (FDI) in European Union (EU) accession countries. In 2004 and 2007, 10 former socialist eastern European countries joined the EU. Although the EU integration is associated with increasingly favourable investment conditions, accession countries also pursue active strategies to attract foreign firms. In particular, taxes on corporate income have been significantly reduced during the last decade. We analyse whether corporate tax policies of eastern European countries affect three aspects of multinational activity: the location decision, the investment decision and the capital structure choice. The results suggest that local taxes are negatively related to both location and investment decisions. The analysis of the capital structure confirms that higher local taxes imply higher debt‐to‐capital ratios.     

FDI spillovers in new EU member states

Using an unbalanced panel of firm‐level data in Bulgaria, Poland and Romania, we examine the impact of foreign firms on domestic firms’ productivity. In particular, we try to answer the following research questions: (1) Are there any spillover effects of foreign direct investments (FDI), and if so, are they positive or negative? (2) Are spillover effects more likely to occur within or across sectors? (3) Are the existence, the direction and the magnitude of spillovers conditioned by sector and firm‐specific characteristics? Our findings show that FDI spillovers exist both within and across sectors. The former arise when foreign firms operate in labour‐intensive sectors, while the latter occur when foreign firms operate in high‐tech sectors. Moreover, we find that domestic firm size conditions the exploitation of FDI spillovers even after controlling for absorptive capacity. We also detect a great deal of heterogeneity across countries consistent with the technology gap hypothesis.     

Lobbying and innovation in the European Union

Aside from anecdotal evidence, lobbying activities and the role of vested interests in the EU have not been scrutinized. This article attempts to cast focus on the relationship between lobbying and aspects of innovation in the EU. The modest performance of the EU compared to the innovation frontier has been attributed to an array of factors, one of which is the adverse effect of vested interests. The lack of new, innovative enterprises has been identified as a decisive factor behind the productivity stagnation and lobbying by incumbents poses as a credible culprit. In this article, I create a novel firm-level database through the cross-fertilization of data from the growing Transparency Register (EC and EP), AMADEUS (BvD), the OECD, Eurostat, and the European Commission in order to address the complex relationship between vested interests, innovation, and competition. The preliminary findings indicate that more R&D intensive firms tend to spend significantly larger amount of funds on lobbying, primarily competing for EU grants and government procurement. Using data for country-sector concentration, I find that the relationship is stronger in the presence of low competition. Despite the improvements required in the documentation of lobbying activities, these results provide preliminary tangible evidence on the effect of vested interests on innovation performance.     

Multinational firms,acquisitions and job tasks

We revisit the question how inward FDI and multinational ownership affect relative labor demand. Motivated by the recent literature that distinguish between skills and tasks, we argue that the impact of multinational and foreign ownership on the demand for labor is better captured by focusing on job tasks rather than education. We use Swedish matched employer–employee data and find that changes of local firms to both foreign and Swedish multinationals increase the relative demand for non-routine and interactive job tasks in the targeted local firms. Hence, in a high-income country, both inward and outward FDI have a task upgrading impact on local firms. The effect is primarily driven by wage effects leading to increased wage dispersion for workers with different non-routine and interactive task intensity. We also show that the effect is not the same as skill upgrading since dividing employees by educational attainment does not capture changes in the relative labor demand. Hence, our results suggest a new aspect of the labor market consequences of FDI.     

On the employment effects of outward FDI: the case of Spain, 1995–2011

In this article, we analyse the impact on domestic employment resulting from outward FDI performed by Spanish firms, using industry data for the period 1995–2011. Together with the effects on the total employment, we differentiate the effects according to the particular groups of countries and activities to which those FDI outflows are addressed. In addition, the impact of outward FDI on the demand for labour is also analysed separately for high and low skill levels of the labour force.     

The structure of multinational activity: evidence from Germany

Recent empirical studies of the determinants of multinational activity across countries have found overwhelming support for a horizontal rather than a vertical model of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The majority of these studies use data either originating in or targeted at the US. This article presents evidence from a dataset of German inward and outward FDI. The dataset is similar in scope to the widely used US Bureau of Economic Analysis data, making the results comparable to those from previous studies. In addition, a new empirical specification is employed that avoids some of the problems that have plagued these studies. The results provide little indication of vertical multinationals. FDI happens largely between similarly endowed countries. Multinational firms originate in skilled-labour abundant countries, although the evidence is mixed on whether they are also small. A novel result is that German firms invest disproportionately in other European countries, while the reverse is not true.     

FDI,taxes and agglomeration economies in the EU15

This article provides an empirical analysis of the impact of tax differentials and agglomeration economies on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The article departs from most previous work on FDI and tax competition in a number of ways. First, it incorporates several measures of agglomeration in order to investigate whether agglomeration economies mitigate the downward spiral in tax rates. As the strength of agglomeration economies may vary with the degree of integration, we use a panel of bilateral FDI flows for a highly integrated region including countries with similar economic structure – the EU15 – from 1986 to 2004. Second, the empirical analysis explicitly deals with the problem of selection bias by using the Heckman sample selection approach. Also, by focusing on the EU15, we are able to provide additional information on the determinants of FDI between similar, higher-income countries. The empirical analysis provides some evidence of corporate marginal effective tax rates having an impact on FDI. This result, however, is sensitive to the inclusion of agglomeration economies. In particular, we find both Marshall types of technological externalities and overall concentration of economic activity to have an influence on FDI flows and, moreover, mitigating the negative impact of taxes.     

Does it matter where you come from? Vertical spillovers from foreign direct investment and the origin of investors

This study uses firm-level panel data from Romania to examine whether the origin of foreign investors affects the degree of vertical spillovers from FDI. Investors' origin may matter for spillovers to domestic producers supplying intermediate inputs in two ways. First, the share of intermediates sourced locally by multinationals is likely to increase with the distance between the host and the source economy. Second, the sourcing pattern is likely to be affected by preferential trade agreements. In this case, the Association Agreement between Romania and the European Union (EU) implies that inputs sourced from the EU are subject to a lower tariff than inputs sourced from the United States or Canada. This means that on average American investors may have a greater incentive than EU investors to source from Romania and hence present a greater potential for vertical spillovers. The empirical analysis produces evidence consistent with this hypothesis. The results show a positive association between the presence of American companies in downstream sectors and the productivity of Romanian firms in the supplying industries and no significant relationship in the case of European affiliates. The results also indicate that Romanian firms in sectors whose products are expensive to transport benefit more from downstream presence of American affiliates than Romanian firms in sectors with low shipping costs. No such pattern is found for European affiliates.