Fuzzy Targeting Indices and Orderings

The targeting efficiency and the coverage of social programs for the poor are typically analyzed by partitioning the total population in four mutually exclusive groups: the poor who benefit from a program or policy, the poor who do not benefit, the non‐poor who benefit, and the non‐poor who do not benefit. While useful, this partition into crisp sets may not capture the difficulty of identifying the poor. This paper presents a method that consists of using a membership function to identify to what extent households can be considered as poor or non‐poor. The method builds on fuzzy sets theory whereby the definition of the boundaries of a set, say the poor or the non‐poor, is fuzzy. We characterize the properties that membership functions should have, and we test for the robustness of targeting performance comparisons to the choice of the membership function.     

从贫困到社会排斥：理论演进与政策构想

从贫困到社会排斥,体现着社会的进步和发展。任何一个现代化的国家,均不会轻易承认贫困问题的存在。贫困的概念逐渐被另一个词语社会排斥所代替,同时也赋予了广泛的内涵,已经成为福利国家新的思维方式。社会排斥的过程是动态的。是一个历史的过程。社会排斥不仅仅是单位和个体的因素,既有的政策失败及不足也很容易产生排挤。社会排斥的原因外源上来自于全球化带来的进步与贫困,内因则是福利国家的失灵和社会的变迁,新古典经济理论和泛市场化基本教义也产生了重要影响。在此基础上提出了反社会排斥的政策构想,政府应实施积极地干预,在经济上积极实施就业政策,政治上保障公民权利,以及动员社区和地方参与都有利于抗衡社会排斥所带来的不利影响。     

Lifting You up or Dragging You Down? The Role of Financial Inclusion in Poverty Transitions Among Italian Households

We estimate the effect of financial inclusion on transition probabilities into/out of poverty. By exploiting a longitudinal sample of Italian households between 2002 and 2016, we find that financial inclusion is effective in both reducing the likelihood of entering poverty and helping the poor to climb out of it. According to our estimates, access to deposit accounts reduces the risk of falling below the poverty line by 2.7 percentage points (pp) and increases the chance of exiting poverty by 4.4 pp. Significance and magnitude of such effects are confirmed when considering different poverty thresholds and definitions, alternative proxies for financial inclusion as well as alternative empirical strategies.     

Basel III and Central Banks With Multiple Objectives： Convergences Between Targets

This text evaluates the convergence among the main targets of a Central Bank, like the Brazilian Central Bank, with that deals with objectives such as inflation targeting, bank regulation, and financial inclusion, when it operates subject to the Bank for International Settlements （BIS） recommendations gathered in the recent Basel III agreement. A Brazilian conjuncture analysis starts with the economic stabilization plan known as Piano Real （July, 1994） and takes account that, from 2007 onwards, the world economy is going through troubled times unchained by the international financial crisis that motivated the recent Basel Agreement （Basel III）. There are two lines of analysis： macroeconomic and marketing. From the macroeconomic approach, there are plenty models to predict money supply and monetary aggregates. From a marketing perspective, it can be inferred that technologies potentially innovatives may alter the current scenario. The financial time series chosen are： daily money supply, banking reserves, and annual inflation （monthly announced）. The first statistical and empirical evidences from the period （July, 1994 to December, 2011） show that the management of banking reserves does not interfere with the continuous growth of the monetary base plus demand deposits （M1） and cash in circulation, which possibly indicates an increasing financial inclusion. Moreover, there is no evidence that it creates inflationary pressures. The future works may require competencies pertinent to prospective finance and consumer behavior （marketing）.     

支持失地农民的发展性政策选择

随着我国社会经济体制的转型,产生了规模不小的各类弱势群体,而失地农民在一定程度上成为新的弱势群体。文章试图从国际视角出发,通过详细的文献梳理,对西方反社会排斥实践尤其是补偿性教育进行经验总结,并在此基础上与国内已有做法进行细致的比较分析,研究发现:补偿教育是国外反社会排斥公共政策的研究热点。通过细致的文献梳理,发现西方不仅从生存方面对弱势群体进行了援助,而且用补偿教育的手段对弱势群体的发展能力进行了本质提升;反之,国内对失地农民的关注焦点主要集中在补偿与社会保障体系的建设上,一定程度上忽略了教育培训的运用。所以,文章建议国内应从社会责任观的培育,发展性公共政策体系的建立以及法律、金融措施保障三方面展开深化研究。这对提升弱势群体特别是失地农民的生存和发展能力从而走出"边缘化困境"有重要的现实和理论意义。     

贫困测度方法与反贫困目标瞄准——以F_α系列贫困指数为例

政府在对贫困人口实施收入救助时,通常以追求目标群体贫困最小化为出发点.同时,政府常借助于贫困指数来评估贫困和反贫困政策效果.对收入相异的贫困人口而言,实际能否得到救助很大程度上取决于政府的评估方法和约束条件.基于此,探讨了在不同约束条件下,贫困测度方法与反贫困目标瞄准之间的关系.结果表明,从效率和公平的角度看,我国应采用Fα(0＜α＜1)指数作为贫困评估方法,以实现Type-pr类反贫困政策.     

数字鸿沟背景下小农户信息赋能过程机理与实现路径 ——基于数字包容理论的多案例研究

数字经济的高速发展,使小农户因自身禀赋劣势面对新一轮对信息、网络技术的占有和应用程度的“知识分隔”时边缘化程度加深,造成的“数字鸿沟”更日益影响稳定脱贫成效,如何利用信息技术赋能小农户弥合其与“信息富有者”间的“纵向数字鸿沟”已成为亟待解决的重要课题。通过田野调查,提出了面向稳定脱贫的小农户分类模型,利用该模型选取多个案例,结合数字包容理论剖析和挖掘了信息赋能小农户实现数字包容背后的过程机理并探讨如何借助信息技术赋能小农户、培育数字农民、建设数字乡村的途径。研究发现,信息赋能小农户的过程主要分为信息意识萌发、信息技能掌握、信息成效变现三个阶段。信息意识萌发阶段,应着力唤醒小农户信息使用意愿及主动性;信息技能掌握阶段,要开辟多种渠道增加获取信息使用技能的机会;信息成效变现阶段,要通过广泛参与发挥信息效能。三个阶段应采用不同策略进行信息赋能,才能弥合数字鸿沟,实现数字包容,促进稳定脱贫与共同富裕。     

Comments

This paper argues for a fundamental reorientation of fiscal policy from the current aggregate demand management model to a model that explicitly and directly targets the unemployed. Some advantages notwithstanding, aggregate demand management has a number of serious drawbacks that merit its reconsideration. This paper identifies these shortcomings and builds the case for a targeted demand management approach that can deliver economic stabilization through full employment and better income distribution. This approach is consistent with the original Keynesian policy recommendations and offers a reinterpretation of Keynes's proposal for the modern context with the help of the work of Hyman Minsky.     

中国城市贫困人口动态变化与空间分异特征探讨

1990年代以来中国城市贫困问题越来越突出。通过探讨中国城市贫困的标准和内涵,分析了中国城市贫困人口的组成结构及其动态变化特征,进一步描述了中国城市贫困人口的空间分异,并且按照城市贫困发生率划分为基本脱贫区、低度贫困区、中度贫困区、高度贫困区和剧烈贫困区五个区域,再从自然条件、经济发展水平、行业特征、受教育程度和就业机会五个方面解析成因。最后得出四个结论：一是我国城市贫困人口分布具有典型的地域特征,城市贫困发生率较高的为中部老工业基地和西部地区;二是失业人口是城市贫困人口的主体;三是城市贫困人口的结构性特征突出,该群体成为社会变迁中的被淘汰者;四是农民工成为新的城市贫困群体,城市越大农民工规模也越大。     

关于两极分化的思考

我国正处在社会主义初级阶段。在当前条件下，鼓励非公有制经济的存在和发展，就应该承认由资本与劳动的对立所决定的在一定范围内的两极分化也是一种客观的存在。因此，应该按照历史唯物主义关于生产关系与生产力的相互关系的原理来理解和对待两极分化；应该采取措施，缓和两极分化带来的社会矛盾；应该明确，我们的最终目的是在消灭私有制的基础上彻底消除两极分化现象。