产业政策中的资金配置:市场力量与政府扶持

产业政策具有重要的国家战略意义,如何有效引导经济资源流向政策支持产业,是产业政策发挥成效的关键.现有相关研究未深入考察经济资源在扶持行业之间及行业内部配置的规律,而且没有综合探讨不同资金配置的关联.文章考察了市场力量与政府扶持两种机制如何引导产业政策下的资金配置.研究发现,产业政策支持的企业获得了更多的债务融资和政府补助.其中,债务融资更多地流向了成长行业中规模较大的企业,政府补助使成长行业中的小规模企业和成熟行业中的大规模企业受益更多.研究结果表明,市场看重企业的增长机会,政府补助则会顾及当前成长性较弱而相对不受市场青睐的企业,对产业政策下的市场化资金配置起到了补充作用.文章的研究为如何协调市场机制和政府扶持两种力量提供了一定的借鉴.     

Endowments,Specialization, and Policy

The paper explores the relationship between industry shares in production and their determinants including factor endowments, technology, and government policies, in a GDP–function framework. We use a new international panel dataset on production and trade compiled by the World Bank. As an intermediate step we calculate Hicks‐neutral productivity indices that vary across industries, time, and countries. We find that own‐TFP is robustly associated with industry shares across time and countries and that, after correcting for these productivity differences, output shares are related to factor endowments (Rybczynski effects) in a plausible way. Once Rybczynski effects are controlled for, we find little evidence of demand‐side policies (import tariffs) affecting the allocation of resources; we find, however, more role for supply‐side policies as the relative size of capital‐intensive industries is positively associated with infrastructure–capital endowments.     

FROM DIRECT SUPPORT OF BUSINESS SECTOR R&D/INNOVATION TO TARGETING VENTURE CAPITAL/PRIVATE EQUITY: A CATCHING-UP INNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY LIFE CYCLE PERSPECTIVE

The paper presents a generic, three-phase innovation and technology policy (ITP) model which, in a number of contexts, could lead to the successful rise of venture capital (VC) or related equity-based support and finance systems for innovative SMEs both in high- and non-high-tech sectors. There has been increasing recognition that such systems could facilitate country attempts at latching into the ICT revolution, catching-up and deepening of R&D/Innovation; and for facilitating the transition to a knowledge/learning economy. Whereas the model is inspired by the successful Israeli experience during the 1969–2000 period, the other examples referred to in the paper suggest that it is adaptable to other contexts as well. A critical analytical point is whether, in the wake of direct government support of business sector (BS) R&D/Innovation (Phase 1), conditions will emerge for the successful emergence of VC or related industries in Phase 3 (and, whenever necessary, for the successful policy targeting of such industries). These are termed Phase 2 conditions; and the paper refers to three Phase 2 profiles: the Israeli profile; the Chilean profile; and a third ‘strategic’ profile, which seems to have been adopted by Korea. The analysis strongly suggests that a multiphase ITP model could be an important analytical tool both for policy analysis and for policy making. Over and beyond its emphasis on the dynamic links between direct Government support of BS R&D/innovation and subsequent policies directed to VC, the paper also shows that policy could be subject to increasing rather than to decreasing returns.     

It Investment and its Productivity Effects: An Organizational Sociologist's Perspective on Directions for Future Research

The paper reviews the empirical evidence on the contribution of IT investments to economic growth and discusses the need for further research to explain the chain of causation linking the cumulative effects of IT expenditures on vertical and horizontal market structures within specific industries and the factors which influence or mediate the direction and magnitude of these effects. Two hypotheses are discussed as polar explanations for why IT capital productivity increased significantly after such a long period of stagnant and, in some industries negative, growth prior to 1987.     

国有经济比重与我国地区实体经济资本配置效率——来自省级工业行业数据的证据

财政分权和官员晋升激励等制度造成地方政府有较强保护本地区经济的动机,这种地方保护及市场分割造成的诸侯经济客观上为我们提供了类似于跨国研究设计框架的背景。以1999—2006年间我国30个地区27个工业行业为样本,运用Wurgler(2000)的资本配置效率估算模型考察国有经济比重对地区实体经济资本配置效率的影响。研究显示:我国实体经济资本配置效率在省际和年度间呈现显著差异,且地区国有经济比重与其相应地区实体经济资本配置效率负相关。     

Structural change in Finnish manufacturing: The theory of the aggregation of production functions and an empirical analysis with a plant-level panel

In this paper, structural change in the Finnish manufacturing industries is studied using the theory of the aggregation of production functions and longitudinal plant-level data for the period from 1980 to 2005. To characterise the nature of structural change in 12 industries, we examine the invariance of aggregate production functions over time. Aggregate production functions need not be estimated because, according to the theory of the aggregation of production functions, the invariance can be analysed by investigating the stability of capacity density functions, which describe the distribution of value added in these industries. Even though the shapes of aggregate production functions alter over time in most industries, there are differences in timing and in the degree of turbulence across industries. The analysis confirms that in some industries (e.g., the paper industry) the late 1980s marked the beginning of a period of relatively strong structural change. The food and communications equipment manufacturing industries are examples of industries for which the 1990s was a period of turbulence.     

中国技术进步偏向性的测算与分析

借助不变替代弹性生产函数,利用1985—2013年中国的相关数据,测算了中国技术进步的总体偏向性以及资本增强型技术进步和劳动增强型技术进步的变化速率。结果表明:资本与劳动的替代弹性约为0.402,资本与劳动呈现互补特征,且中国的技术进步呈资本偏向性。指出:从技术进步偏向看,独立自主的发展方针、实现国家工业化的目标以及资本和技术的缺乏共同导致了目前中国的技术进步偏向;中国工业化向高技术发展仍会加强技术进步的资本偏向性,并将引发一系列问题。认为短期内中国仍需维持一定规模的传统劳动密集型产业,长期应大力发展人力资本密集的现代服务业等第三产业。     

Measurement and Allocation of Capital Inputs With Taxes: A Sensitivity Analysis for OECD Countries

Taxes affect the measurement of capital inputs. The paper provides an assessment of these impacts in a cross‐country framework where heterogeneity of corporate taxation across industries and asset types is accounted for. The results show that taxes change the relative prices of capital types, which, in turn, has implications on the estimated capital quality and reallocation effects in the traditional growth accounting framework. Omitting tax parameters is a source of mismeasurement, particularly when the rental price of capital assets is constructed using an external rate of return, leading to biased capital costs and profits rates. It is shown that differential taxation results in a deadweight loss in terms of misallocated capital inputs, predominantly due to composition effects within industries.     

中国台湾地区文化创意产业政策关联性分析

使用关联性分析和政策分析的研究方法,结合相关的数据资料,分析了我国台湾地区文化创意产业的相关政策及其支撑体系。结果表明:我国台湾地区文化创意产业的政策关联性相对较强,现有的大部分实施细则可以较好地支撑其配套政策;其多元资金挹注和市场流通及扩展方面的政策具有较强的关联性,但其产业研发及辅导和产业集聚效益方面的政策存在协调不当、管理不善和执行力不强等问题,其人才培养及媒合方面的政策有待完善和补充。最后提出了有利于我国文化创意产业发展的政策建议。     

Selected transition and Mediterranean countries: an institutional primer on EMU and EU accession

The paper examines the institutional channels through which Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in the European Union (EU) can affect the transition countries of Central and Eastern Europe and three Mediterranean countries that aspire to join the EU.
After describing the current institutional framework for relations between the EU and these countries, the paper considers two categories of institutional implications of EMU. The first stems from the need to satisfy the Maastricht convergence criteria before joining the euro area. Although the Maastricht criteria are not accession criteria, many of the countries reviewed are already formulating their macroeconomic policies in a way that will facilitate convergence toward the Maastricht targets. The second implication stems from the need to adopt the EU's institutional and legal provisions in the area of EMU, such as those referring to the establishment of independent central banks, the prohibition of central bank financing of the government and the liberalization of capital movements. Finally, the paper discusses some of the key policy issues that EMU raises for the countries reviewed, in particular regarding exchange rate policy, capital account liberalization and the possible conflict between growth-enhancing measures and the Maastricht criteria.     

An Integrated System for Management and Policy Analysis

This paper develops an analytical framework to simulate management- and policy-driven environmental changes in Swedish mountain environments. The framework is based on a dynamic model that includes economic connections between timber and reindeer. Economic benefits are obtained in the timber sector and the reindeer sector, by harvesting forest and reindeer stocks and selling the harvests in markets. Unharvested forest and reindeer stocks provide benefits outside of markets. Reindeer stocks provide benefits by supporting the reindeer husbandry lifestyle for members of the indigenous Saami population. The paper analyzes decisions made by a hypothetical planner of a geographical area corresponding to a Swedish sameby (Saami village). Decision outcomes are measured using the present value of net benefits measured in economic terms, and are obtained both inside and outside of economic markets. The final section gives examples of management and policy decisions that might be simulated for Swedish mountain environments, such as market-based policies to increase the economic welfare derived from private timber and reindeer harvests.     

制度变迁与新兴产业——理论分析与实证

新兴产业作为一种全新经济形态的产业群,具有独特的特征与发展规律,已有的研究较少关注新兴产业发展的影响因素,更未有对各要素尤其是制度迁在新兴产业发展中的贡献度进行实证检验的文献.如Romer建立的“知识溢出”模型以及Lucas的“人力资本溢出”模型,尽管强调人力资本的重要性,但由于人力资本积累及其所导致的人力资本异质性最终是以技术进步为导向的,均属于技术决定论的范畴.任何产业都是在一定的制度背景、环境下成长起来的,而新兴产业作为一种处于萌芽期、成长期的产业,更是需要良好的制度环境与制度安排,制度伴随着新兴产业的发展过程,是决定其成长快慢的首要因素.     

LABOR‐MARKET FRICTIONS,HUMAN CAPITAL ACCUMULATION,AND LONG‐RUN GROWTH: POSITIVE ANALYSIS AND POLICY EVALUATION*

We construct a search model with endogenous human capital and labor participation to study the growth effects of short‐run frictions and the effectiveness of human capital policies. Employment, learning effort, and output growth increase with more effective learning, better labor‐market matching, lower job separation, or less costly vacancy creation. Although output growth, employment, vacancy creation, and learning and search effort are most responsive to changes in a human capital policy that directly affects learning effort, such a policy need not be more beneficial for welfare. The effects of human capital policies become larger as the severity of labor‐market frictions rises.     

Technological spillover through industrial and regional linkages: Firm-level evidence from China

This paper provides new insights into the study of technology spillover effects through the interaction between industrial and spatial linkages. We develop a theoretical model that provides a useful modeling framework for spillover research, and then empirically test the model inferences using Chinese firm-level data. Input-output tables and spatial decay measurements are combined to construct the key spillover variables. Using seemingly unrelated regressions, the paper finds that vertical spillover effects are more significant than horizontal spillover effects, both within- and between-regions; regional characteristics have greater impacts on vertical spillovers than on horizontal spillovers; and regional spillover effects vary across different regions. Regional policies and regional endowments, including human capital, transportation infrastructure, and enterprise ownership, are crucial in explaining these heterogeneities in regional technology spillover. Our empirical results provide many policy implications including strengthening the connection between upstream and downstream industries and devoting more R&D to upstream industries.     

Measures of capacity utilization and its determinants: a study of Indian manufacturing

We estimate Capacity Utilization (CU) rates in for selected industries in Indian manufacturing for the 20-year period 1976–1996. We estimate a generalized Leontief variable cost function, with capital as a quasi fixed input, to derive our CU measures, using error-component techniques. We note substantial variations in CU both across industries and over time. In general, we find that CU rates were higher in the earlier time-period, dropped in the mid-80s and started rising again in the early 90s. CU rates in our analysis are sensitive to input prices with the sole exception of the price of labor. We also confirm the standard result that variations in demand are a significant driving force for variations in CU. We find that CU is positively related to the magnitude of labor intensity in production. This holds for both between-industries and within-industries. Empirical results also indicate that traditional measures of CU such as minimum capital output ratio and peak-to-peak are not appropriate proxies for the short-run decision making of the firm regarding CU. As compared to the estimates derived from the choice-theoretic framework, we find that the traditional measures exhibit substantial bias.     

中国石墨烯产业创新政策分析及建议

石墨烯作为公认的典型颠覆性技术正在逐步走向应用前景,迅速的产业化进程离不开创新政策的支持。本文在对石墨烯产业发展阶段分析基础上,构建“政策演进过程政策工具分析-创新过程政策工具分析-应用领域分析”三维分析框架,采用内容分析法对石墨烯产业创新政策工具和应用领域推进进行深入分析。     

产业界、科研机构与金融业的合作环境——英国促进科技成果转化的最新政策

在科技成果转化过程中,各参与主体不是孤立存在的。产业界、科研机构与金融业等各参与方的合作环境建设可成为政府相关宏观政策的着力点。英国在相关方面进行了长期探索,其政策领域处于世界前列。经过全面研究,按不同政策对象主体,英国政府科技成果转化的相关政策大致分为学术界、产业界、金融业和非正式风险资本市场四大类,形成了科技成果转化的政策体系,基本覆盖了科技成果转化过程的各个方面。特别是英国政府在金融业和非正式风险投资领域的政策方面,其经验具有较好的参考价值。     

1985—2010年间中国制造业要素 配置扭曲变动的解析 ——资本结构变动与技术进步的影响分析

本文对1985—2010年间中国制造业部门的要素配置扭曲系数的变动进行了解析。要素配置扭曲系数的变动一方面是由于不同行业间投资结构失衡所引致，但是另一方面则反映了不同行业间不同类型技术进步差异对要素报酬率变动的影响效应。笔者发现：（1）近十多年来，部分重化工业的资本快速扩张引起行业间投资结构失衡，并加大了行业间的要素配置扭曲程度；（2）相对于1985—2000年间，技术进步因素在2001—2010年间对要素配置扭曲系数的变动的影响效应越来越大。本文建议政府在制定产业政策时，限制一般生产性的资本投资鼓励政策，而更多转向鼓励创新和研发投资的政策，鼓励体现有技术进步因素的资本要素与劳动要素之间的相互替代。     

分析国际资本流动趋势调整武汉招商引资思路

如果要在更大规模上吸引外资投资于武汉市制造业,必须把握国际资本流动的特点和发展趋势,以适时制定与之相匹配的前瞻性外资战略和政策.本文在阐述国际资本流动特点的基础上总结了目前外资流动的四大趋势:中国吸引外资扩大化趋势;并购化趋势;流向政策透明地区趋势;产业集群显现优势趋势,以期对武汉市政府制定相应外资政策提供借鉴.     

Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment in Spanish Manufacturing Firms

This paper examines the effect of participation by foreign capital and the spillovers from a foreign presence on the technical progress of Spanish manufacturing firms. The results show that foreign direct investment (FDI) creates positive spillover effects for local firms, and when the presence of foreign capital and the absorptive capacity of spillovers from FDI are large, more technical progress ensues. Also, local companies in capital‐ and research and development (R&D)‐intensive industries experience larger positive FDI spillovers. For these reasons, government policies should aim to attract FDI, especially in the aforementioned industries.