关于完善保险营销管理制度的几点思考

从1992年友邦入驻上海建立营销员制度起，至今已有十余年历史。个人寿险营销员已有一百多余万人，部分产险公司也建立了个人代理的营销模式，产险营销员的队伍也在逐年扩大。保险营销员制度为做大、做强我国保险业发挥了重要作用。但随着我国经济的发展、保险监管体系不断完善以及民众对保险认识不断提高，保险营销员制度仍然存在着整个行业都不容忽视的问题，笔者将就存在的问题结合自身的工作经验，谈几点思考。     

基于损失分布的产险公司保险保障基金构成机制研究

保险保障基金制度是为了确保保单持有人利益和完善保险企业退出机制而建立的特殊制度。保险保障基金的筹集是保险保障基金制度的核心内容，它直接关系到保险保障基金制度的有效运行。本文以产险公司为例，通过拟合损失分布，从保单定价的盈亏平衡原理和产险公司实际偿付能力出发，给出了产险公司破产时，保险保障基金的期望损失计算公式，并提出相关参数的估计方法，对建立保险保障基金的风险缴纳比例机制有一定的借鉴意义。     

试论当前保险营销制度的利与弊

保险业的迅猛发展,保险营销制度功不可没,保险营销制度因此成为各寿险公司首选的营销模式。但随着保险业的快速发展,保险营销制度的缺陷日益凸显。本文阐述了当前保险营销制度的利与弊,并提出完善保险营销制度的建议。     

2013年上海保险学术理论征文获奖名单公告

为推动群众性保险学术理论研究工作,提高保险业界的学术理论研究水平,充分发挥保险理论研究对于保险实践的先导作用,上海市保险学会、上海市保险同业公会、《上海保险》杂志社联合举办了2013年上海保险学术理论征文活动。在各会员公司的大力支持下,本次征文活动取得了良好效果。沪上热心于保险理论研究的各界人士从保险市场实际出发,就保险业发展的热点问题进行了深人的探讨。论文内容涉及保险创新、公司转型、风险控制、保险原理、制度探索等方方面面,为促进上海保险市场的进一步健康发展作了有益的探索。     

动态传真

全国已有25个省区市免征农业税；今年财政支农重点；我国将建国家土地督察制度；国家对高校贫困生资助；全国首家相互制农业保险公司开业……     

美国的社会保障制度及启示

美国是一个市场经济高度发达的国家,社会保障制度已有七十余年的历史。我国在建立与完善社会主义市场经济体制的过程中,研究、借鉴美国建立社会保障制度的经验,具有重要的意义。美国社会保险制度的基本内容 (一)养老遗属伤残保险。1935年8月美国颁布了《社会保障法》,为老年人、遗属及伤残人员提供社会保障。其基本内容是;(1)领取条件比较严格。参加养老遗属伤残保险的前提条件是:如果一个人的家庭     

董事高管责任保险与上市公司关联交易——基于我国上市公司经验数据的检验

董事高管责任保险(D&O保险)是一个市场化的外部治理机制。基于沪深证券交易所2003—2017年上市公司数据,本文实证检验了D&O保险对上市公司关联交易的影响。研究发现,D&O保险显著提升了关联交易总水平、关联销售金额和关联购买金额;根据控股产权性质分组研究发现,D&O保险对非国有控股公司关联交易的正向影响,比对国有控股公司更加显著;D&O保险、关联交易均与公司价值显著正相关,且关联交易发挥中介效应。研究表明,D&O保险通过监督效应提升关联交易,并促使其对公司价值发挥支持效应。研究加深了对D&O保险治理职能的理解,更新了对关联交易经济后果的惯性认知,对促进公司治理治理机制建设和完善现代企业制度具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

董事高管责任保险、制度环境与公司治理——基于中国上市公司盈余管理的视角

以盈余管理行为作为研究视角,采用2002年～2011年我国A股上市公司的数据,研究了董事高管责任保险、制度环境与公司治理水平之间的关系。研究发现,相对于没有购买保险的公司,购买了董事高管责任保险的公司具有更高的盈余管理程度。进一步将样本分为国内和香港交叉上市(同时发行AH股)和仅国内上市(仅发行A股)两个子样本,发现对于AH股公司,购买保险的公司具有更低的盈余管理程度,而对于仅发行A股的公司,购买保险的公司却具有更高的盈余管理程度。研究结果表明,董事高管责任保险目前尚未发挥对国内上市公司应有的治理作用。此外,董事高管责任保险的治理作用受到外部制度环境的影响。具体地,在法律和监管制度相对完善的环境下,董事高管责任保险才能发挥正向激励作用。     

建立保险交叉销售体系的若干思考

近年来，保险业集团化发展趋势日益明显。为抓住难得的发展机遇，迅速壮大，一些保险公司纷纷扩军，向综合经营方向迈进。目前，已有中国人保控股公司、中国人寿集团、中国再保险集团、中国保险控股公司等七家保险公司组建了控股（集团）公司，另外，阳光财险也已获批组建第八家保险控股（集团）公司。     

积极开展——养老金保险工作

福建省连城县保险公司去年5月起开办了养老金保险业务。目前,全县参加养老金保险的单位已有110个,职工2,088人,占应保职工的96％,较好地解决了城镇集体企业职工和国营合同制职工“老有所养”的问题。县公司经过调查了解,发现有不少集体企业、单位没有保险制度,职工生老病死得不到经济保障;有的虽有退休制度,但没有退休基金,也不解决问题。养老金保险就是针对这个实际情况开办的。     

中国金融压力指数构建与经济预警的实证研究

选取中国股票市场、外汇市场、保险市场、银行部门以及国际金融市场中的九个重要因素指标,构建具有时效性的中国金融压力指数(FSI);同时,基于Granger线性因果检验结果,构建我国经济发展形势指数(SP-MI)带有解释变量的自回归模型,分析FSI与SPMI的关系及影响效应.结果表明:金融压力对经济发展有负面影响,FSI每增加1个单位,SPMI长期将下降0.6305个单位.构建的金融压力指数能够较好地反映我国金融机构在不同时期所承受的压力,并揭示我国所面临金融压力的大小和预测我国经济发展形势.     

Determinants of financial stress in emerging market economies

The global financial crisis of 2008–2009 illustrates how financial turmoil in advanced economies could trigger severe financial stress in emerging markets. Previous studies dealing with financial crises and contagion show the linkages through which financial stress are transmitted from advanced to emerging markets. This paper extends the existing literature on the use of financial stress index (FSI) in understanding the channels of financial transmission in emerging market economies. Using FSI of 25 emerging markets, our panel regression estimates show that not only advanced economies FSI, but also regional and nonregional emerging market FSIs significantly increase domestic financial stress. Our findings also suggest that there is a common regional factor significantly affecting domestic FSI in emerging Asia and emerging Europe. Furthermore, the results from a structural vector autoregression model with contemporaneous restrictions indicate that although a domestic financial shock still accounts for most of the variation in domestic FSI, regional shocks play an important role in emerging Asia.     

Leading indicators of financial stress: New evidence

This paper examines which variables have predictive power for financial stress in 25 OECD countries, using a recently constructed financial stress index (FSI). First, we employ Bayesian model averaging to identify leading indicators of stress. Next, we use those indicators as explanatory variables in a panel model for all countries and in models at the individual country level. It turns out that panel models can hardly explain FSI dynamics. Although better results are achieved in country models, our findings suggest that (increases in) financial stress is (are) hard to predict out-of-sample despite the reasonably good in-sample performance of the models.     

基于FSI的中国金融安全实证分析

随着我国加入WTO后金融自由化进程不断加快,建立金融安全预警机制,及时掌握金融安全动态,对防止金融危机的爆发至关重要.本文首先在相关文献研究的基础上,依据"三性原则"筛选出能够反映我国金融安全运行状况的20个指标,其次参照国际标准和中国具体实际确定了临界值或区间值,最后经计算得出反映我国金融安全程度的指数--FSI(Financial Security Index),并运用FSI对我国1992～2005年间的金融安全状况进行了评判.通过研究得出结论认为:1992～2005年我国的金融安全总体趋势是逐渐变好,加入WTO虽然并未使我国的金融安全状况变差,但是在目前金融业逐渐开放的条件下仍然需要高度关注金融风险.     

Financial stress and economic contractions

This paper examines why some financial stress episodes lead to economic downturns. The paper identifies episodes of financial turmoil in advanced economies using a financial stress index (FSI), and proposes an analytical framework to assess the impact of financial stress – in particular banking distress – on the real economy. It concludes that financial turmoil characterized by banking distress is more likely to be associated with deeper and longer downturns than stress mainly in securities or foreign exchange markets. Economies with more arm's-length financial systems seem to be more exposed to contractions in activity following financial stress, due to the greater procyclicality of leverage in their banking systems.     

Forecasting global stock market volatilities in an uncertain world

We investigate the predictive relationship between uncertainty and global stock market volatilities from a high-frequency perspective. We show that uncertainty contains information beyond fundamentals (volatility) and strongly affects stock market volatility. Using several crucial uncertainty measures (i.e., uncertainty and implied volatility indices), we prove that the CBOE volatility index (VIX) performs best in point (density) forecasting; the financial stress index (FSI) in directional forecasting. Furthermore, VIX's predictive power improved dramatically after the COVID-19 outbreak, and the VIX-based portfolio strategy enables mean-variance investors to achieve higher returns. There are two empirical properties of VIX: (i) it helps reduce significantly forecast variance rather than bias; and (ii) its forecasts encompass other uncertainty forecasts well. Overall, we highlight the importance of considering uncertainty when exploring the expected stock market volatility.     

The impact of short-selling and margin-buying on liquidity: Evidence from the Chinese stock market

We propose a framework based on limit order book to analyze the impact of short-selling and margin-buying on liquidity. We show that when short-sellers are perceived as informed, adverse selection may lead to uninformed traders withdrawing their limit orders. Given that the Chinese stock market has strong information asymmetry and a high proportion of uninformed traders, we predict that the pilot program launched in March 2010, which lifts restrictions on short-selling and margin-buying for a designated list of stocks, may have a negative impact on liquidity. We perform difference-in-differences tests and show evidence that allowing for short-selling and margin-buying indeed has a significantly negative impact on liquidity for stocks on the designated list. In particular, the negative impact on liquidity is more pronounced for stocks with high information asymmetry. Nevertheless, when short-selling volume dries up due to regulation changes in August 2015, i.e., the “T+1” trading rule on short-selling, we show that consistent with model predictions, lifting restrictions on short-selling and margin-buying has a positive effect on liquidity.     

Accounting for Expenditure on Intangibles

In search of a unifying measurement feature on which to base a more systematic and potentially comprehensive analysis of intangibles, this paper first analyses the economic and accounting properties of intangibles, and second, empirically evaluates managerial practices for measuring and analysing expenditure on intangibles. We present evidence from a survey of 614 large Australian firms that suggests gaps in the extent with which firms plan, monitor, record, analyse, and report on intangibles. Third, we evaluate the implications of our analysis and survey for accounting practice. Our evidence suggests GAAP has a role to provide guidance that helps firms identify and classify their expenditure on intangibles in ways that elucidate the strategic implications of the different types of intangibles for future output. A secondary step for accountants, after identifying and classifying the expenditure on intangibles, is to apply a capitalization test to distinguish expenses from assets. The current asymmetric treatment of expenditure on purchased versus internally generated intangibles is not supportable on economic grounds. However, economists identify weak property rights as a major cause of uncertainty associated with the outcomes from expenditure on intangibles, suggesting verifiable property rights is a unifying measurement feature on which to base a capitalization test for intangible assets.     

Pricing options on mean reverting underliers

For mean reverting base probabilities, option pricing models are developed, using an explicit measure change induced by the selection of a terminal time and a terminal random variable. The models employed are the square root process and an OU equation driven by centred variance gamma shocks. VIX options are calibrated using the square root process. The OU equation driven by centred variance gamma shocks is applied in pricing options on the ratio of the stock price for J. P. Morgan Chase (JPM) to the Exchange Traded Fund for the financial sector with ticker XLF. For the purposes of calibrating the ratio option pricing model to market data, we indirectly infer the prices for stock options on JPM from the prices for options on the ratio, by hedging the conditional value of JPM options given XLF, using options on XLF. The implied volatilities for the options on the ratio are then indirectly observed to be fairly flat. This suggests that for JPM, the use XLF as a benchmark is a possibly good choice. It is shown to perform better than the use of the S&P 500 index. Furthermore, though the use of an unrelated stock price like Johnson and Johnson as a benchmark for JPM provides as a good fit as does the use of XLF, this comes at the cost of requiring a considerable smile for the implied volatilities on the ratio options and hence a more complex model for the implied distribution on the ratio.     

Different uses of performance measures: The evaluation versus reward of production managers

This study examines how the importance that is attributed to a variety of financial and non-financial performance measures depends on the type of use – evaluation versus reward. Survey data, collected on a sample of industrial companies, provide consistent evidence of a difference in the importance attached to performance measures for these two uses. More importance is attached to both financial and non-financial performance measures for the periodic evaluation than for variable rewards. The study also shows that the influence of production strategy and departmental interdependence on the importance attached to performance measures differs for evaluation and reward uses. A production strategy focused on differentiation by product-performance has a negative effect on the importance attached to financial measures for variable rewards but no effect on their importance for periodic evaluation. Moreover, departmental interdependence decreases the importance attached to financial measures for variable rewards but not for periodic evaluation. Departmental interdependence also has only a positive effect on non-financial measures for periodic evaluation and no effect on non-financial measures for variable rewards. Overall, the data suggest that it is essential to distinguish between different uses when studying performance measurement choices and their determinants.