On the relevance of exports for regional output growth in China

Despite high economic growth during the past decades, China is still vulnerable to shocks arising from industrial states. The advanced economies strongly influence Chinese export performance, with subsequent effects on output growth. Using a production function, this article examines to which extent regional GDP growth in China is export driven. In a panel of 28 Chinese provinces, series are splitted into common and idiosyncratic components, the latter being stationary. The results indicate cointegration between the common components of GDP, the capital stock and exports. In equilibrium, exports increase GDP by more than their impact expected from the national accounts. While exports and capital are weakly exogenous, GDP responds to deviations from the long run. A similar adjustment pattern can be detected for most regions, except for some provinces in the Western part of the country.     

An Analysis of Exports and Growth in India: Cointegration and Causality Evidence (1971–2001)

The relationship between exports and economic growth has been analysed by a number of recent empirical studies. This paper re‐examines the sources of growth for the period 1971–2001 for India. It builds upon Feder's (1983 ) model to investigate empirically the relationship between export growth and GDP growth (the export led growth hypothesis), using recent data from the Reserve Bank of India, and by focusing on GDP growth and GDP growth net of exports. We investigate the following hypotheses: (i) whether exports, imports and GDP are cointegrated using the Johansen approach and Breitung's nonparametric cointegration test; (ii) whether export growth Granger causes GDP growth; (iii) and whether export growth Granger causes investment. Finally, a VAR is constructed and impulse response functions (IRFs) are employed to investigate the effects of macroeconomic shocks.     

Exports of primary goods and human capital accumulation

Many developing countries have experienced export‐led growth in the last half century. This paper asks whether the content of what economies export matters for human capital accumulation. We construct a small open economy model and find that expansion of primary exports can harm human capital accumulation if the economy is initially allocating significant resources to the production of primary goods. We then test this prediction empirically using Latin American data over the period 1965 to 2010 and find robust evidence in support of the hypothesis that a shift towards primary exports reduces human capital accumulation. Given the importance of the latter for long‐run growth, our results suggest a potential role for policy intervention.     

Export Growth and Domestic Performance

A VAR approach is used to analyze the effects of export growth on the evolution of GDP, domestic employment, and investment in 39 economies. The results strongly support the export-led growth hypothesis. Export growth affects GDP growth positively in 30 countries. In six countries, all of them inward-looking, the effects are negative. For these countries, and for these countries alone, export growth has a negative effect on the evolution of both domestic employment and investment. This also suggests the importance of the indirect effects of exports on GDP growth.     

The Impact of Chinese Exports on Global Import Prices*

This paper evaluates the evidence bearing on the question of whether China's buoyant export growth has led to significant changes in the import prices, and thus inflation performance, of its trading partners. This evidence suggests that the impact of Chinese exports on global import prices has been, while non‐ negligible, fairly modest. We identify a statistically significant effect of US imports from China on US import prices, but given the size of this effect and the relatively low share of imports in US GDP, the ultimate impact on US consumer prices has likely been quite small. Moreover, imports from China had little apparent effect on US producer prices. Finally, using a multi‐country database of trade transactions, we estimate that, since 1993, Chinese exports lowered annual import inflation in a large set of economies by 0.25 percentage point or less on average.     

当前中国出口退税率调整对出口额的影响研究

随着全球经济的复苏,今年第一季度中国对外贸易恢复性增长势头良好。以中国为应对2008年金融危机造成的出口下滑,国家再度提高出口退税率作为研究背景。通过对出口退税率和出口额关系进行回归分析,得出出口退税率对出口额影响显著,以评价出口退税政策的客观效果。然而,强化提高劳动密集型产业的退税率,不利于中国出口产业结构的调整,而且退税率频繁变动,会干扰企业正常的经营决策。进而提出建立合理的、较为稳定的退税制度,促进中国经济增长方式转变和产业结构的升级,实现党中央可持续性发展的战略方针。     

A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis

This article challenges the common view that exports generally contribute more to GDP growth than a pure change in export volume, as the export-led growth hypothesis predicts. Applying panel cointegration techniques to a production function with non-export GDP as the dependent variable, we find for a sample of 45 developing countries that: (i) exports have a positive short-run effect on non-export GDP and vice versa (short-run bidirectional causality), (ii) the long-run effect of exports on non-export output, however, is negative on average, but (iii) there are large differences in the long-run effect of exports on non-export GDP across countries. Cross-sectional regressions indicate that these cross-country differences in the long-run effect of exports on non-export GDP are significantly negatively related to cross-country differences in primary export dependence and business and labor market regulation. In contrast, there is no significant association between the growth effect of exports and the capacity of a country to absorb new knowledge.     

Causal relationship between apparel exports and macroeconomic factors

Apparel exports make a significant contribution to economic growth in major apparel exporting economies such as Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Vietnam. This study aims to investigate the causal relationship between apparel export growth and its determinants such as GDP growth, infrastructure, financial development, foreign direct investment (FDI) and labour productivity using panel data from 11 major apparel exporting countries for the period 1996 to 2013. The results confirm a long-run equilibrium association among the variables and reveal that GDP growth, infrastructure, financial development, FDI, and labour productivity have a significant positive influence on apparel export growth. Furthermore, the heterogeneous panel non-causality test results suggest that GDP growth, infrastructure and labour productivity contribute to apparel export growth in the short-run. These findings have several policy implications for the governments of the countries under study.     

协整分析与误差修正模型--从增长率看民营企业进出口对我国经济增长的影响

作者在计算民营企业净出口对我国经济增长的贡献度和贡献率,以及对1994年-2005年民营企业进、出口和我国 GDP数据进行协整分析的基础上,根据格兰杰定理运用EG两步法建立三者间的误差修正模型。实证分析表明从增长率的角度来看,民营企业进、出口对我国经济增长的促进作用非常显著。     

Exports,investment and policy uncertainty

Building on a literature that underscores the value of delaying investment in the face of uncertainty, we study how policy uncertainty in 18 large economies affects exports to these economies. We decompose aggregate bilateral trade flows from 1995 to 2013 into intensive and extensive margin components and employ a gravity specification to assess the impact of policy uncertainty on each margin separately. Consistent with theory, increases in policy uncertainty decrease both trade values and the extensive margin but, if anything, increase the intensive margin. In further tests, we use various proxies for sunk export costs and demonstrate that the effects of policy uncertainty are more pronounced where sunk costs are higher.     

Revisiting Exports and Foreign Direct Investment in Vietnam

Since 1986, Vietnam has undertaken various reform measures in the trade and foreign investment area. This paper finds significant contributions of world trade, and competitiveness and liberalization effects to Vietnam's export growth over the period 1997–2008. Vietnam's exports became more competitive and better complemented the import demand of Vietnam's trade partners. In addition, dynamic comparative advantage became evident in many products, but significant room remains for improving export competitiveness. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows also increased and helped stimulate Vietnam's exports. FDI inflows have increased in both the short‐ and long‐term, yet are only of a limited magnitude. This necessitates more effective measures to enhance the linkages between FDI and domestic enterprises.     

影响中国服务贸易出口的可量化因素分析

根据1990-2004年中国服务贸易出口及其可量化因素的时间序列数据建立的多元线性回归模型,印证了人均国内生产总值、世界GDP增长率、服务业占GDP的比重、货物贸易出口额等因素对中国服务贸易出口的影响。因此,应优化服务贸易出口结构。扩大市场开发度和加大政府支持力度,以增加中国服务贸易的出口。     

Exports, Returns to Scale, and Total Factor Productivity: The Case of Taiwanese Manufacturing Industries

The paper examines the relevance of international scale economies and international market efficiency of trade based on the firm-level data of Taiwanese manufacturing industries. The author first constructs a simple analytical framework to measure the extent of scale economies and total factor productivity for each firm. The measurements of scale economies and total factor productivity are then used to investigate the relationships among exports, scale economies, and productivity. Significant external scale economies associated with exports and a strong positive relationship between the individual firm's productivity and its own export intensity are observed.     

Kicking a crude habit: diversifying away from oil and gas in the twenty-first century

Abstract

This article investigates the correlates of diversification away from oil and natural gas dependence in the context of the twenty-first century resource boom (and bust). In a sample of 40 oil- and gas-dependent economies, the majority showed significant sectoral diversification of GDP, but exports remained highly concentrated in fuel exports. Regression analysis indicates that countries that began the boom with higher levels of oil and gas dependence, poorer countries, and those with significantly larger- or smaller-than-average populations were more successful in diversifying their GDP during the commodities boom. Governance matters – more effective, capable bureaucratic structures are associated with greater GDP diversification away from oil and gas – though the effects are not uniformly positive. For any given level of government effectiveness, stronger rule of law is associated with less GDP diversification. Education appears to affect GDP and export diversification differentially. Consistent with endogenous growth theory, countries with more educated populations saw greater growth in their nonresource sectors than countries with less educated populations, though education is associated with greater export concentration. Internal economic diversification in the twenty-first century has been less a matter of policy formation and implementation, and more a matter of factors that shape the policy-making environment.     

标准化对中国出口贸易的影响效应——基于局部均衡的分析

由于技术差距的存在,中国出口贸易产品的技术标准普遍低于美、日、欧等发达国家,因此,标准化对中国出口贸易的影响显著。从局部均衡的角度分析短期和长期的不同影响效应发现：在短期内,标准化对中国的出口贸易效应主要是负面的,表现为贸易限制效应、贸易转移效应和贸易条件效应;而在长期情况下,如果企业能够积极改进,不断创新,那么标准化对中国的贸易会产生积极的促进效应,贸易量会增加,同时贸易条件也会得到改善。     

Foreign direct investment, regional market conditions and regional development

This paper uses regional panel data to investigate the mechanism whereby foreign direct investment (FDI) has contributed to China's regional development through quantifying regional marketization levels. It is found that FDI inflow generates a demonstration effect in identifying regional market conditions for investment in fixed assets and hence affects industrial location. In addition, its effects on regional export and regional income growth have varied across east, central and west China since the second half of the 1990s, depending on differences in FDI orientation between different regions. In east China, geographical advantage in exports attracts FDI inflow and FDI promotes exports. In addition, the rise of the FDI–GDP ratio increases east China's share in national industrial value added. These effects contribute positively to regional income growth in east China although there is a direct crowding‐out effect between FDI and domestic investment (as input) in growth. In contrast, the negative impact of FDI inflow on regional export orientation in central China weakens its contribution to regional income growth. Furthermore, the contribution of the improvement in the market mechanism to regional development is evidenced in attracting FDI, in promoting export and directly contributing to regional income growth.     

A Band Spectral Analysis of Exports and Economic Growth in the United States

This paper examines the role of exports in aggregate economic growth in the United States using band spectral regression. The findings reveal a predictable relationship between long-run frequency components of real export growth and real GDP growth over the post-Bretton Woods period of flexible exchange rates. The study fails to uncover a significant relationship between long-run frequency components of the terms of trade and real output. Overall, the findings support the export-led growth hypothesis, and dismiss long-run movements in the terms of trade as an important determinant of real output growth.     

Openness in the Canadian economy: 1870–1988

The causal relation between openness and GDP and between exports and imports are examined. Causality test carried out in growth rates showed that over the period 1870–1988 openness, both narrowly and broadly defined, Granger-causes GDP growth; tests for the inverse causality produced mixed results, validating causality from GDP growth to export plus import growth, but rejecting causlaity from GDP growth to export growth; it was also found that export growth causes import growth, but not the opposite. Causality tests over four subperiods indicated the importance of openness for only the earliest phase of Canadian economic development. While the absence of causality in the later subperiods is largely compatible with the experience of the industrial countries, no meaningful comparison can be made between the experience of Canada and that of developing countries owing to causality variations of openness and to large differences in resource endowments.     

The Euro Effect on Eurozone Exports

In this article, we examine the impact of the real effective exchange rate for several countries in the Euro area over the period before and after the introduction of the euro. Based on ARDL modeling techniques, we estimate the long-run and short-run relationships between exports volumes and a number of key variables, namely Real Effective Exchange Rate, weighted GDP and Output Gap. This article is particularly oriented towards the study of long-term relationships between the exchange rate and global exports performance, on the one hand; and between exchange rates and intra-European exports performance, on the other. Two measures of exchange rate are considered: a global real exchange rate to investigate the impact of exchange rates on overall exports and an intra European real exchange rate calculated to detect its effect on intra-European trade. The study shows that there is a big difference between the impact of exchange rates on exports before and after the establishment of the European Monetary Union on the one hand, and between the impacts of exchange rates on intra-European global exports on the other hand.     

Causality between exports,world income and economic growth in Pakistan

This paper investigates the direction of causation between GDP representing economic growth, exports and its different categories, imports and world income. After experiencing vigorous import-substitution in the past decades, Pakistan adopted an outward-looking strategy in the late 1980s with an emphasis on export promotion. A strong and stable relationship between GDP and exports and bi-directional causality between manufactured exports and GDP has been found. Export promotion policy is pursued consistently with an emphasis on manufactured exports and this is most likely to contribute adequately to economic growth in the long run.