主要农业自然灾害对我国粮食安全影响的实证研究

粮食问题一直是我国政府和全社会关注和研究的热点问题,而农业自然灾害又是粮食问题不可忽视的重要方面。农业自然灾害究竟在多大程度上影响我国粮食综合生产能力,我国农业自然灾害抵御能力的评价及其在多大程度上能够保障粮食生产的稳定性、供给的安全性仍值得研究。论文围绕主要农业自然灾害对我国粮食综合生产能力的影响分析,对各种主要农业自然灾害对粮食生产能力的影响程度分别进行了实证分析,并提出相应的对策建议。     

A decomposition analysis of income inequality of Chinese rural households

This paper reports an application of household survey data collected from grain producing areas in five provinces of China to issues of the determinants of rural inequality. Previous studies suggest that non-agricultural activities have been the major cause of rural income inequality, which has important implications for policy formulation. However, our results show that inequality within the grain producing areas was also very high, with differences in crop income as the major source of inequality. The policy implications are also different from those of previous studies. While some suggest that an increase in agricultural income can reduce inequality, our results indicate that this is not universally true. In some cases, whether the increase in crop income has come from state procurement also matters. These results call for a more cautious and area-specific approach to policy formulation as far as inequality is concerned.     

小农的种粮逻辑——40年来中国农业种植结构的转变与未来策略

基于已有文献对中国粮食安全问题的质疑与担忧,作者回顾了改革开放40年以来我国农业种植结构调整从"去粮化"到"趋粮化"的历史性转变。文章认为,2003年以来中国粮食长期且连续的增长,并非由外生的经济因素直接激发,亦非农业税减免和农业补贴政策的直接诱导,而是由农户在要素流动与卷入农业分工的过程中所内生的自我执行机制来决定的。理论与实证研究表明,中国小农的种粮逻辑是通过要素配置、地权预期、分工深化三个方面来共同表达的。小规模分散化的农业家庭经营格局并不构成中国粮食安全的阻碍,相反,却内含着重要的组织优势与可动员潜力。文章进一步讨论了保障中国粮食安全的基本策略与政策选择。     

吉林省农村发展现状分析与对策探索

吉林省是我国的农业大省和国家的商品粮基地。本文从交通设施、农作物种植、农民文化程度及农村金融等方面研究了吉林省农村发展现状,并结合吉林省农村实际情况,对吉林省农村的发展对策进行探索,以期促进农村发展。     

基于组合模型下的河南省粮食生产相关投入分析及产量趋势预测

以河南省粮食总产量存在的波动性入手,应用主成分分析法对粮食生产相关投入进行组合提取分析,并对未来5年河南省粮食总产量进行建模预测。通过主成分分析显示,一是提取了农业基础资源投入与农业现代化水平因子及农业政策因子,贡献率分别为72.668%和15.429%;二是乡村从业人员与粮食产量趋势呈负相关,是由于随着农业生产多方面的投入增多,从中减少了一部分劳动力。运用所建立的GM(1,1)模型预测,未来5年,河南省粮食总产量仍将保持平缓增长的发展趋势,到2022年将达到7389.58万吨。该研究结果可作为相关部门制定粮食发展规划和政策措施的重要参考。     

节水灌溉技术对农业灌溉效率的影响

采用节水灌溉技术提高农业灌溉效率对于保障国家粮食安全和促进农业可持续发展具有现实意义.运用超期望SBM模型分别测度粮食灌溉效率和蔬菜灌溉效率,并进一步运用Tobit模型实证分析节水灌溉技术对农业灌溉效率的提升作用.结果表明:粮食灌溉效率平均值为22.93％,蔬菜灌溉效率为45.80％;节水灌溉技术对农业灌溉效率具有显著的提升作用;年龄和地形对农业灌溉效率具有正向影响,灌溉设施对蔬菜灌溉效率正向影响.因此,提出加强农业生产指导,加强节水灌溉技术的宣传和推广,采用灵活多变、农户易于接受的培训形式等建议.     

Determinants of technical efficiency and farmers’ crop choice rationality: A case study of rural Gansu,China

Land exchange based on market transactions in which lessors and lessees participate voluntarily not only makes them better off but also enhances the overall efficiency of land use and agricultural production. However, it is worthwhile to empirically explore the effect of land rental on overall technical efficiency in the context of Chinese agriculture because non-farm household producers have increasingly entered the farming business as cultivators. If such producers underperform farm households in terms of efficiency, land consolidation does not necessarily deliver the desired outcome. This study demonstrates that the development of land rental markets improves agricultural technical efficiency at the aggregate level. Another important issue addressed in this study is to examine farmers’ crop choice rationality. China offers an interesting case in this respect. This is because, while the central government has long strived to maintain a high grain self-sufficiency rate, the relative prices of farm products have recently moved in favor of non-grain products. Our empirical result suggests that there is room for further increase in farm revenues of Gansu’s producers by shifting resources away from cereal toward horticultural production.     

科技支撑农业：我国农业发展的现实路径

技术进步能突破资源约束，带动经济增长。我国粮食增产、农业增长方式转变、农民增收都急需科技的强力支持。而我国农业科技自主创新能力不强，支撑能力薄弱。我们迫切需要强化科技攻关、狠抓技术推广、刺激技术需求、加强农民培训，让科技来支撑农业发展，这是我国农业发展的现实选择。     

What do subsistence farmers know about indigenous crops and organic farming? Preliminary experience in KwaZulu-Natal

The lack of published information on indigenous agricultural knowledge in South Africa frustrates the efforts of scientists who seek to enhance the creativity of subsistence farmers, and thus help their delivery from the cycle of poverty to commercialised farming. The term ‘indigenous crop’ is not clearly defined in the literature, and confusion about what is a traditional or an indigenous crop often arises even in conversations with local people. Perhaps the confusion stems from the generally accepted norm that a crop is associated with conventional production practices and commercialisation. Indigenous crop production and use of indigenous plants for food are generally not associated with conventional agriculture. Many subsistence farmers in South Africa have known only organic farming until recently, when they were introduced to ‘new seeds’ and agricultural chemicals. On-farm opinion surveys and physical farm appraisals were undertaken at the Msinga and Embo tribal areas in KwaZulu-Natal, in an attempt to assess the knowledge of subsistence and small-scale farmers about indigenous crops and organic farming. Results showed that the traditional definition of the term ‘indigenous crop’ may be broader than ‘African only’, at least in the context of indigenous South Africans. The findings also showed that subsistence farmers take organic farming to be a peasant's approach to food production, but its health and economic merits are recognised.     

The impact of agricultural innovation system interventions on rural livelihoods in Malawi

This study, conducted in central Malawi, assessed the way a research intervention using an agricultural innovation system affected rural livelihoods. Propensity score matching was used to establish one village as a control, against which the impact of the intervention on two study villages [0]could be measured. Using the Enabling Rural Innovation intervention as a case study, it was established that rural livelihood outcomes pertaining to crop and livestock production, household income, asset ownership and fertiliser use were significantly improved by this intervention. In-depth analysis, however, demonstrated that although the participating households had more robust livelihoods during the intervention, when the research programme was phased out the effect was reduced. The authors recommend that local agricultural extension officers should receive more capacity building and budgetary support to ensure proper understanding of agricultural innovation systems concepts and correct application so as to sustain their positive effects.     

Reducing Agricultural Income Vulnerabilities through Agroforestry Training: Evidence from a Randomised Field Experiment in Indonesia

Although agroforestry is recognised as a means to stabilise farm income, little work has been done to differentiate farmers based on their incomes, their capacity to diversify crops, and the economic outcomes of agroforestry adoption. By distinguishing between high- and low-income farmers, this paper examines how agricultural training affects agroforestry promotion, and evaluates its relevance for the poor, the extent of its adoption, and its economic consequences. We found that although training generally increased participants’ knowledge of agroforestry, it increased crop diversity only for low-income participants. We also detected the presence of information spillovers from participants to non-participants, which may increase crop diversity among non-participants and consequently reduce the measurable impact of training. When income heterogeneity is considered, we found that the low-income participants benefited more from increasing their incomes and expanding their social networks than the higher-income participants. We also found that agroforestry adoption helped to reduce income volatility.     

Agriculture and the migration of labour to a capital city: The case of Gaborone,Botswana

This study examines some aspects of rural urban migration in Botswana, focusing in particular on Gaborone, the capital. Models are specified that relate age grouping, sectoral income differential, government employment and time to male and female migration. Econometric models were based on published data. The study indicates that there is a positive relationship between migration and central government employment, expressed as a proportion of total formal employment. The differential between agricultural and average non‐agricultural income, especially for male migrants, is also positively related to migration. The results show that with time, male and female migration to Gaborone is likely to increase. Male migration is positively related to arable crop cultivation, whereas female migration has an adverse effect on it. Neither has any significant influence on harvested crop area in Botswana     

Factor reallocation and structural transformation implications of grain subsidies in China

Since agriculture has contributed significantly to China’s economic growth miracle, it is important to understand the contributions and determinants of agriculture related to different agricultural policies in structural transformation in China. However, as one of the most important agricultural policies in China, the effects of the grain subsidy policy on factor reallocation, economic growth, as well as agricultural and non-agricultural production have not been investigated systematically and comprehensively. The absence of using an economy-wide model to estimate the impacts of the grain subsidy policy in China leaves a vacuum in the policy-advising space. This research develops a dynamic single-country, multi-regional computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy to evaluate the historical impacts of the grain subsidy policy. Our results reveal that grain subsidies impede the efficiency of factor reallocation and economic structural transformation in China. However, grain subsidies promote grain production growth and temporarily reduce rural-urban income disparity. In order to achieve the long-term sustainable increase in rural income and to mitigate the rural-urban income gap, China needs to further develop its labor-intensive industries (e.g., services) to accommodate the large number of rural labor transfers. Moreover, the large-scale agricultural production and technology improvement in agriculture are the effective measures to ensure food security in China.     

Socio‐economic characteristics of the rural population in Gcumisa ward,KwaZulu

The purpose of this paper is to present information gathered in a multi‐stage sample survey of 193 rural homesteads in the Gcumisa ward of KwaZulu. The survey area was stratified into two regions of different agricultural potential. Estimates of human population, off‐farm employment, crop production expenditure, land utilization and homestead income are projected for the strata Sample observations relating to occupations, wages and cash remittances are also presented. Conclusions drawn relate primarily to the effects of yield expectations, farm size and off‐farm employment opportunities on crop production.     

Off-farm employment and grain production change: New evidence from China

How does off-farm employment affect grain production? Previous research findings are inconsistent. This paper provides a general theoretical framework to explain the effect of off-farm employment on grain production and consider that the effect is non-liner. The empirical results show that off-farm employment decreases grain production and insignificantly changes grain crop structure. Importantly, we find an inverted-U correlation between off-farm employment and grain production, meaning that off-farm employment will increase grain production when the off-farm labor supply is relatively low and will decrease grain production when the off-farm labor supply is relatively high. Further, we investigate the heterogeneity of the causal effect in the destinations of off-farm employment, household's land scale, land features, household location, and household aging.     

粮食安全与粮农增收的影响因素分析及对策

农资价格、农业补贴、粮食价格、粮食产量是影响粮食安全与粮农增收的关键因素,其任何一因素变动对增加农民种粮收益作用是有限的,因而推进农民增收需要其协同作用,政府需要采取多种有效措施降低农资价格、提高农资补贴、粮食价格和粮食单产。     

“十二五”期间安徽农业产业发展的路径选择

安徽是农业大省，主要农产品产量居全国位次靠前，但与自然条件相近的周边省份相比，其生产效率却存在明显差距，尤其是劳动生产率和土地生产率水平明显低于周边省份。文章分析认为，安徽农业生产效率偏低的主要原因在于主要农产品单产水平低、特色农业发展缓慢、农牧业转化效率低和生产基础条件建设滞后。据此，“十二五”期间安徽农业发展应实施强基固本支撑战略、粮棉油高产提升战略、“粮转肉”增值战略和特色农业基地化战略等四大战略。     

Improvement of governance at regional level: The case of Perm oblast

This paper examines issues associated with improving the effectiveness of regional-level government using the concept of result-oriented management. Key elements of the concept are the statement of global government objectives at the Federal member level, the building of a suitable governance system with precise centers of responsibility and separation of powers, as well as result-based procedure of resource allocation. Some evidence from the practical application of this instrument in Perm oblast is supplied.     

Impact of Agricultural Research and Extension on crop productivity in Pakistan: A production function approach

This study analyzes the contribution that agricultural research and extension made to crop productivity in Pakistan from 1955 to 1981. Using a production function approach, it estimates the (marginal) internal rate of return to these activities. The estimated rate of around 36% is in the range reported for other countries. Considering this high rate of return and the low public spending on agricultural research and extension in Pakistan, the obvious policy recommendation is to allocate more and higher quality resources to these activities to facilitate a rapid increase in agricultural productivity.     

Agricultural pricing policy in Kenya

This paper examines Kenya's agricultural pricing policy, its role in the development of key sectors of the agricultural economy during the 1970s and its impact on different classes of producers. Toward this end, the paper describes the process of agricultural price determination in Kenya, and examines trends in real producer price indices for selected crop groupings and by size of holding.The most important finding of the paper is that agricultural pricing policy has been used in Kenya to create incentives for the growth of marketed agricultural production. In addition, the paper shows that the Government of Kenya has also used pricing and marketing policy instruments to achieve its goal of promoting the agricultural development of smallholders, who constitute the dominant mode of agricultural production in Kenya. Significantly, these findings are contrary to the widely accepted notion that pricing policy in developing countries has uniformly been biased in favor of the urban sector and against agricultural producers.