Initial infrastructure development strategies for the transition to sustainable mobility

Within the Dutch transition policy framework, the transition to hydrogen-based transport is seen as a promising option towards a sustainable transport system. One aspect of such transition processes that is emphasized in transition management is learning about user behaviour and preferences. However, while earlier research on sustainable mobility acknowledges the importance of refuelling infrastructure, the question of how to unroll such an infrastructure and the role of user practices and user behaviour largely remains unanswered. In this paper we present an agent-based model to study the process of development from niche to market for hydrogen vehicles. We thereby focus on the role of users in this process and support our model by empirical data. Within this model the effects of different strategies for hydrogen infrastructure development on hydrogen vehicle fleet penetration are studied. More specifically, diffusion patterns for hydrogen vehicles are created through the interactions of consumers, refuelling stations and technological learning. The main result is that social network effects do influence the technological trajectory of hydrogen vehicles and thus should be taken into account by infrastructure developers and policymakers.     

Provided and perceived status quo in choice experiments: Implications for valuing the outputs of multifunctional rural areas

This article presents a choice experiment analyzing multifunctional rural development policies targeting conservation and recovery of environmental, social and cultural assets. In choice experiments a base alternative is usually included in order to estimate the welfare change associated to policy proposals. This study is concerned with the much neglected issue of the impact on policy analysis of the definition of a ‘status quo’ alternative either as an objective assessment by experts, or as a self-reported perception by respondents. Convergent validity analysis and prospective policy scenarios show a significant impact of different status quo specifications on individuals' preferences and related welfare measures when complex and unfamiliar biophysical systems are involved in policy analysis and evaluation.     

颠覆性技术创新的政策需求分析——以智能交通为例

由于颠覆性技术创新具有科学突破性、长周期性、替代性、产业爆发性、价值跃迁性等特点,需要在不同的发展阶段进行不同的政策支持,特别是对于政府导向的重大颠覆性技术创新,更需要在关键技术研发和应用场景创造方面给与大力支持。智能交通作为政府导向的颠覆性技术创新,随着智能交通技术由基础技术体系、关键技术向技术融合发展转变,其政策支持也经历了由支持基础研发为主的供给型政策到以支持应用示范为主的需求型政策,再到以财税优惠和产业规制为主的环境型政策的转变。同时,本文认为应该注重颠覆性技术的阶段识别和应用场景开放,完善早期的培育政策和后期的市场引导政策,才能更好的促进我国颠覆性技术的产生和发展。     

Macroprudential consolidation policy in interbank networks

Can consolidation policy be made consistent with macro-prudential supervision? In this study, we seek to provide new insights on this key-question using a network approach. We study how the resilience of a banking network evolves as we shock an initially homogenous competitive market with a sequence of M&A activities that significantly alter the topology of the network. We study how different M&A treatments impact the structural vulnerabilities that can propagate through the system and we show that the severity of contagion and default dynamics depends on the chosen treatment. The desirability of alternative competitive settings (such as a hub-centered market or a more concentrated and yet symmetric market) are assessed against a homogenous benchmark case. We show that the choice depends crucially on the size of the interbank market and the level of bank capitalization. The existence of a large highly connected hub is beneficial in a capitalized network with a well-developed interbank market, but it can significantly weaken the system’s resilience in a poorly capitalized market. Antitrust and competition authorities should adopt a state-contingent approach to M&A activities according to the market conditions in which banks operate.     

Combining stated and revealed choice research to simulate the neighbor effect: The case of hybrid-electric vehicles

According to intuition and theories of diffusion, consumer preferences develop along with technological change. However, most economic models designed for policy simulation unrealistically assume static preferences. To improve the behavioral realism of an energy–economy policy model, this study investigates the “neighbor effect,” where a new technology becomes more desirable as its adoption becomes more widespread in the market. We measure this effect as a change in aggregated willingness to pay under different levels of technology penetration. Focusing on hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs), an online survey experiment collected stated preference (SP) data from 535 Canadian and 408 Californian vehicle owners under different hypothetical market conditions.Revealed preference (RP) data was collected from the same respondents by eliciting the year, make and model of recent vehicle purchases from regions with different degrees of HEV popularity: Canada with 0.17% new market share, and California with 3.0% new market share. We compare choice models estimated from RP data only with three joint SP–RP estimation techniques, each assigning a different weight to the influence of SP and RP data in coefficient estimates. Statistically, models allowing more RP influence outperform SP influenced models. However, results suggest that because the RP data in this study is afflicted by multicollinearity, techniques that allow more SP influence in the beta estimates while maintaining RP data for calibrating vehicle class constraints produce more realistic estimates of willingness to pay. Furthermore, SP influenced coefficient estimates also translate to more realistic behavioral parameters for CIMS, allowing more sensitivity to policy simulations.     

Simulated economic impacts in applied trade modelling: A comparison of tariff aggregation approaches

This paper assesses the performance of two recently developed tariff aggregators in reducing tariff aggregation bias by analysing Swiss beef market liberalisation scenarios. Specific relevant sources of bias are addressed: substitution effects on import demand, Tariff Rate Quotas and overprotection in tariffs. The aggregators are linked to a global large-scale partial equilibrium model and benchmarked against a standard aggregator. The choice of the aggregation method shows considerable effects on simulated economic impacts, specifically if the dispersion in tariffs or tariff cuts is large. A large bias is revealed in simulated gains from trade liberalisation using the standard aggregator. The impacts on traded quantities are found to be overestimated, while price and welfare effects can be higher or lower by switching to alternative aggregation methods. By reducing aggregation bias and depicting negotiated tariff schedules more directly, the proposed aggregators enhance the contribution of trade modelling to evidence-based policy making.     

IMPLICATIONS OF LIBERALISED EUROPEAN LABOUR MARKETS

This paper reviews the alternative labour market scenarios open to European policymakers in the current movement towards enhanced economic and political integration. To clarify the various issues, the paper dichotomises the policy alternatives into two camps: "euro-liberalists" and "euro-regulators." The paper concludes that the latter offers the best path towards convergence, with the proviso that the subject of regulation is a Pan-European system of labour market objectives rather than institutions.     

Integrated scenarios of energy-related CO2 emissions in Ireland: A multi-sectoral analysis to 2020

This paper presents future scenarios of Irish energy-related CO₂ emissions to 2020, using a combination of multi-sectoral decomposition analysis with scenario analysis. Alternative development paths, driving forces and sectoral contributions in different scenarios have been explored. The scenarios are quantified by using decomposition analysis as a Divisia Index SCenario GENerator (DISCGEN). The driving forces of population, economic and social development, energy resources and technology and governance and policies are discussed. A set of four integrated or ‘hybrid’ qualitative and quantitative baseline emission scenarios are developed. It is found that sectoral contributions and emissions in each scenario vary significantly. The inclusion of governance, social and cultural driving forces are important in determining alternative development paths and sustainability is crucial. Our empirical results show that decomposition analysis is a useful technique to generate the alternative scenarios.     

西部地区金融发展的政策取向

在市场经济下,金融对于经济发展的作用至关重要,中国协调区域发展离不开金融的支持,实施区域金融政策是中国协调区域发展的现实选择。应尽快建立适应西部特点的新型金融组织体系,通过培育区域金融中心、健全区域金融协调机制,并在货币市场和资本市场实行有针对性的金融政策。     

The design of a consumption tax under capital risk

This paper focuses on the design of a consumption tax in a world of capital risk. The certainty literature discusses two standard options, namely the cash flow method and the pre-payment method (i.e., the wage tax), and finds the two approaches to be equivalent. Models that consider capital risk (via asset choice) reach different conclusions. This discrepancy arises in part due to a different choice of the social discount rate. In light of the failure of the discount-rate argument to resolve the issue at hand, we explore the market certainty equivalence of risky government revenue. We let revenue risks stay in the private sector, and examine the market value of the feasible transfer (e.g., in the form of a public good) back to households. We reach three broad conclusions. First, we find that if the state returns to each household its own tax-revenue risks, equivalence will be re-established as in certainty models. Next, we show that if the state engages in intergenerational risk sharing (e.g., through a system of stochastic tax transfers), the wage tax cannot be construed to be a valid pre-payment alternative to the cash flow or a modified wage-tax-ation system. Efficient risk allocation across generations under a cash flow tax (or, one that includes future capital gains as well as wages in the tax base) leads to a Pareto improvement over the simple wage tax. Finally, a major policy implication follows; in order to be practicable, a consumption tax would have to be implemented via registered savings accounts much in the fashion of the Canadian registered retirement savings plans program rather than through the pre-payment route.     

Assessing market penetration combining scenario analysis, Delphi, and the technological substitution model: The case of the OLED TV market

The technological substitution model, proposed in 1971, was designed to analyze the penetration process of new-generation technologies replacing old ones. It was expanded in 1979 to consider more than two generations and the substitution process among various entities in the market. However, this expanded model is often limited by a relative lack of data on the latest-generation technology.On the other hand, scenario analysis, as another breed to forecasting tool, provides rich and complex portraits of possible future development of technologies. However, it fails to provide quantifiable forecasts. Therefore, previous researchers combined these two methods to analyze the development of new technologies.Nevertheless, to make forecasting more holistic, the current opinions of seasoned experts should also be taken into account. However, because of the often-diverged expert opinions, a method for consensus building, such as the Delphi method, is also necessary. Therefore, we combined the scenario analysis with the Delphi method and the technological substitution model to analyze the development of a new technology, namely, the latest-generation television (TV), or the organic light-emitting diode (OLED) TV. We elaborate three possible scenarios, and forecast the market share of OLED TV and four other TV technologies in the global market over the next 10 years: cathode ray tube, rear projection, plasma display panel, and liquid crystal display.     

How trade and capital restrictions affect the probability of a balance of trade disturbance

Free market economists argue that national authorities avoid restrictions on the free movement of goods, services and financial capital between countries. Yet, countries continually choose to restrict the flow of capital both into and out of the country. Why is this done? Is it done to protect the domestic banking system, to control the domestic money supply, to manage the exchange rate, to provide stability for internal markets or to avoid wide swings in the availability of capital? Are these controls effective in precluding wide swings in a country's international trade balance? This article uses panel data in a logit model to analyse policy choice with respect to an international trade and/or investment regime. The goal is to identify choices effective in reducing the likelihood of a severe Balance of Trade Disturbance (BTD) and determine if the appropriate choice is related to per capita income (pci).     

The political economy of urban transport-system choice

This paper analyzes the political economy of transport-system choice, with the goal of gaining an understanding of the forces involved in this important urban public policy decision. Transport systems pose a continuous trade-off between time and money cost, so that a city can choose a fast system with a high money cost per mile or a slower, cheaper system. The paper compares the socially optimal transport system to the one chosen under the voting process, focusing on both homogeneous and heterogeneous cities, while considering different landownership arrangements. The analysis identifies a bias toward underinvestment in transport quality in heterogeneous cities.     

Is the transport system becoming ubiquitous? Socio-technical roadmapping as a tool for integrating the development of transport policies and intelligent transport systems and services in Finland

This paper examines the main development characteristics within the transport system as we are approaching the ubiquitous phase of the information society. Particularly the challenges in designing transport policies on a rapidly evolving technological frontier are emphasised. The theoretical background of the paper stems from policy assessment as well as futures studies, especially from technology roadmapping. The paper presents a socio-technical roadmapping method as a tool to integrate the technology developments better with societal developments and transport policy design. The method is tested with a Finnish case study, which provides three thematic, complementary roadmaps of the potential transport system technology services of the future. The roadmaps illustrate what kind of technologies, services, actors and related policy relevant knowledge is needed in satisfying the demands of transport policy development in the future's ubiquitous society. The case study reveals several changes in the transport system: pluralised number of actor roles and actor networks in the system, emergence of a new kind of business and service layer because of the new dynamic inter-linkages between the actors, and further, possibility to capture the service layer with the concept of “technology service”. The changes require also re-conceptualisation of knowledge production to support transport policies. In conclusion, the socio-technical roadmapping holds great potentials as a tool for aligning technology development with transport policy development.     

Modelling energy and labour linkages: A CGE approach with an application to Iran

We develop a unique dynamic CGE model suitable for analysing the policy interrelationships between fuels, crude oil and the labour market. Special emphasis is placed on the modelling of energies, crude oil, and the factors of production in the economy. To fully outline the model's features, we build simulations that hypothesize removing fuel and crude oil subsidies in an oil exporting economy to assess their effects on the labour market. The model allows for extensive treatment of transition dynamics, featuring gradual as well as immediate removal of the subsidies. We focus on constructing two alternative simulations applied to a purpose built Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of the Iranian economy, with the revenue from subsidy elimination redistributed to households as extra income or into increased investment. The study pays particular attention to SAM data construction of energy goods and factors of production. In the specific case of Iran, the model shows that rebating the revenue from subsidy removals to households affects the labour market adversely, while channelling revenue into investment improves labour fortunes in the long run. The model is sufficiently detailed and encompassing to allow for further applications to other countries and energy–labour policy issues.     

Biofuels as Sustainable Technologies: Perspectives for Less Developed Countries

The future outlook of biofuels is beset by uncertainty. Key factors for the adoption of biofuels as alternative technologies are policy decisions by governments in terms of regulations, such as government procurement schemes and fuel specifications, along with financial and economic instruments, such as subsidies and preferential taxation. In this framework, the present analysis is a prospective as to the future development of a biofuel program in the European Union and the hypothetical role of developing countries as suppliers in this new market. The focus of this article is, exclusively, on liquid fuels.     

Energy sector in transition—technologies and regulatory policies in flux

A transition of the energy sector towards a renewable-based system is one of the challenges that results from the debate on the global climate problems and diminishing fossil fuels. This will demand access to innovations in energy production technologies and usage. However, policies directly focussing on innovation and diffusion of new technologies are losing ground. Policy discussions have been dominated by the liberalisation of energy markets and the introduction of new economic instruments all over Europe. Whether this delegation of responsibility for the transition to new economic instruments provides the expected innovations is questionable.In Europe, Denmark has served as an example country being one of the front runners in the development of energy technologies based on renewable sources, especially wind turbines. But also in Denmark policy preferences have changed from the support for technological innovation and implementation to support for delegating responsibility to a market for green energy and CO₂ certificate trading.The different policy regimes marking this change are analysed concerning their ability to support technological innovation. Important elements for the construction and legitimacy of policy regimes comes from academic disciplines involved in policy design. The analysis highlights the basic arguments and the type of knowledge involved and indicates some of the limitations in the measures' ability to solve the problems delegated to them. Experience thus far provides little if any evidence that simple, market-based models can facilitate the need for future energy technology innovations in a satisfactory way, which leads to a need for more complex and heterogeneous sets of measures.     

Conceptualizing sustainable development: An assessment methodology connecting values, knowledge, worldviews and scenarios

Sustainability science poses severe challenges to classical disciplinary science. To bring the perspectives of diverse disciplines together in a meaningful way, we describe a novel methodology for sustainability assessment of a particular social-ecological system, or country. Starting point is that a sustainability assessment should investigate the ability to continue and develop a desirable way of living vis-à-vis later generations and life elsewhere on the planet. Evidently, people hold different values and beliefs about the way societies sustain quality of life for their members. The first step, therefore, is to analyze people's value orientations and the way in which they interpret sustainability problems i.e. their beliefs. The next step is to translate the resulting worldviews into model-based narratives, i.e. scenarios. The qualitative and quantitative outcomes are then investigated in terms of associated risks and opportunities and robustness of policy options.The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) has followed this methodology, using extensive surveys among the Dutch population. In its First Sustainability Outlook (2004), the resulting archetypical worldviews became the basis for four different scenarios for policy analysis, with emphases on the domains of transport, energy and food. The goal of the agency's Sustainability Outlooks is to show that choices are inevitable in policy making for sustainable development, to indicate which positive and negative impacts one can expect of these choices (trade-offs), and to identify options that may be robust under several worldviews. The conceptualization proposed here is both clear and applicable in practical sustainability assessments for policy making.     

Retirement planning in the light of changing demographics

With increasing longevity and decreasing fertility rates, governments and policy makers are increasingly engaged in the question of long term retirement planning. In many cases this has included emphasising the need for individuals to take more responsibility for their own retirement planning through tax incentives, compulsion and changes to the age at which state retirement benefits become available. In the case of Australia, as is considered here, long term retirement planning has been focused around the development of a compulsory defined contribution (DC) superannuation system. Here we investigate the interaction between population ageing and the sustainability of the superannuation system by modelling a general superannuation scheme to compare the adequacy of retirement funds under a number of alternative scenarios. The model incorporates stochastic longevity forecasts and provides insight into the sufficiency of compulsory retirement saving both now and future. We find that the current pension scheme is more robust to longevity improvements for mid-class individuals however significant gaps arise for low-income individuals as longevity improves. Without addressing these issues, government expenditure is expected to increase substantially.     

技术创新资源配置的双重调节论

文章对资源配置的市场调节、政府调节、双重调节机制,以及我国技术创新资源配置中的双重调节作用进行了理论分析,选择美国的自由市场经济模式、德国的社会市场经济模式、日本的政府协调型主导市场经济模式和韩国的政府干预型主导市场经济模式等技术创新资源配置模式为分析对象,通过对上述国家四种模式中的双重调节作用进行比较,基本结论是:创新驱动发展战略需要有效发挥对技术创新资源配置的双重调节作用;充分发挥市场在技术创新资源配置中的决定性作用,进一步加大市场化改革力度,发挥和完善市场机制的作用,推进技术创新资源的市场化配置,是我国深化科技体制改革的关键之一;充分发挥政府在技术创新资源配置中的导向性作用,以迅速提升我国技术创新能力。