Normative expectations in systems innovation

This paper is concerned with the way technological expectations are generated, articulated and deployed in processes of large-scale socio-technical change. We argue that expectations are intrinsic to all social action, so that visions of the future are both ubiquitous and context-specific. Agents will act in relation to private visions of the future that are complexly related to shared or collective visions. Characteristic features and forms of visions as they relate to socio-technical regimes are identified, and the specific roles visions play in the context of actor networks engaged in processes of systems innovation are discussed. Visions are seen as 'bids' that are deployed by actors in processes of coalition-formation and coordination. Examples from a range of visions of more sustainable systems are used to illustrate the main arguments. The paper ends by discussing the normative features of socio-technical expectations.     

Governance experimentation and factors of success in socio-technical transitions in the urban water sector

The necessity of a shift towards more sustainable urban water management practice is widely acknowledged and advocated. Experimentation that enables social learning is regarded of high importance for realising such a change. For instance, literature on Transition Management suggests that governance, as opposed to purely technical, experimentation is considered a critical factor in achieving a socio-technical transition. When analysing the water sector it becomes clear that modern urban water systems have almost exclusively focused upon technological experimentation with little attention directed towards the importance of governance experimentation for social learning. Empirically little is known neither on how governance experimentation actually unfolds nor about its effectiveness for socio-technical transitions. This research paper presents a critical analysis of a unique process of governance experimentation within the Australian urban water sector which generated sufficient social–political capital to change an established water governance framework. Conclusions of this research reveal some theoretically conjectured processes, like deepening, broadening and scaling-up, are found in this contemporary, real-life example. Furthermore, factors which influenced the success of this governance experimentation process are revealed and the role of various forms of learning therein is described.     

Expectations as a key to understanding actor strategies in the field of fuel cell and hydrogen vehicles

Due to its environmental impact, the mobility system is increasingly under pressure. The challenges to cope with climate change, air quality, depleting fossil resources imply the need for a transition of the current mobility system towards a more sustainable one. Expectations and visions have been identified as crucial in the guidance of such transitions, and more specifically of actor strategies. Still, it remained unclear why the actors involved in transition activities appear to change their strategies frequently and suddenly. The empirical analysis of the expectations and strategies of three actors in the field of hydrogen and fuel cell technology indicates that changing actor strategies can be explained by rather volatile expectations related to different levels. Our case studies of the strategies of two large car manufacturers and the German government demonstrate that the car manufacturers refer strongly to expectations about the future regime, while expectations related to the socio-technical landscape level appear to be crucial for the strategy of the German government.     

Foresight for science parks: the case of Ankara University

This paper reports a Foresight exercise, which was carried out to develop a research strategy and a business model for the science park of Ankara University (AU). Science parks have been crucial elements of innovation systems both in developed and developing countries because their role in bridging the gap between academia and business through knowledge spill-overs and spin-offs. Although there is a widespread consensus about the usefulness of the science park concept, the actual performance of science parks and how well they meet expectations have been controversial. This paper discusses the success factors for science parks. A three-dimensional policy framework, which includes ‘complementarity’, ‘networking’ and ‘strategic scalar positioning’ is suggested to be taken into account during the design and operation of science parks. The paper describes the Foresight process and the policies and strategies developed by using the three-dimensional policy framework proposed for the newly established science park at Ankara University.     

Reducing the democratic deficit in institutional foresight programmes: A case for critical systems thinking in nanotechnology

The democratic deficit (the ‘deficit’ hereafter) in present institutional Foresight (‘Foresight’ hereafter) lies in its participation regime. In this paper practical ways to reduce the deficit are proposed that ought to increase the responsiveness of Foresight programmes to society's values, concerns and expectations. The existence of the deficit is examined placing ever more emphasis on the need for the active participation by a balanced but wide spread of stakeholders who will help to shape the future of society through the practical scheme proposed. The notions of ‘situations’ and Critical Systems Heuristics (CSH) are combined into a metaphor to suggest how the deficit in Foresight might be reduced. The purpose is to ensure, as far as that is possible, that the process of participation is genuine, inclusive and effective: practical steps toward this are suggested. The subjective nature of the metaphors assists the interpretation of these suggestions. The notion of ‘situations’ and Critical Systems Heuristics (CSH) represents an attempt to provide a metaphorical foundation for inclusive Foresight. At their core, ‘situations’ and CSH consider that problem definitions, proposals for improvement, and evaluations of outcomes depend on prior judgements about the relevant system. The resulting framework that emerges from CSH is a set of boundary concepts usable as a checklist of critical boundary questions. The checklist may be grouped under four issues relating to sources of: (i) motivation, (ii) power, (iii) knowledge, and (iv) legitimization.The current paper discusses the application of the ‘situation’ cum CSH metaphor for the case of nano-science, nano-technology and nano-artifacts that are being widely adopted in areas such as materials, ICTs, and medicine. As a result of the growing interest for nano-field, nano-artifacts are now reaching the consumer markets within a large number of branches. On the other hand there is a growing scepticism about the nano-field regarding the environmental and health risks of nano-artifacts along with the ethical and legal issues arising as a result of the widespread use of these products. A number of processes have been designed and implemented concerning the legal, ethical and social impacts of nano-sciences, -technologies, and -artifacts. The paper suggests that inclusive Foresight, reinforced with the principles of CSH, can be of use in the nano-field providing wider stakeholder representation during the research and development processes. Such processes will contribute to the development of more socially and environmentally responsive nano-artifacts.     

Enabling sustainability transitions in Asia: The importance of vertical and horizontal linkages

The phrase “sustainable development” appears increasingly in national policies in Asian countries and there are many successful ‘sustainability experiments’ documented at local level throughout the region. We explore why, despite the efforts made at the national level and the good practices at local level, underlying trends are away from sustainability. Drawing on the multi-level perspective on system innovation, we argue that linkages between different levels in socio-technical systems are critical to explaining the emergence of sustainable development pathways. The absence of these linkages in many Asian contexts is an important factor obstructing sustainability transitions in Asia. We argue that while the importance of vertical linkages is recognized and theorized in the multi-level perspective, the horizontal and the temporal dimensions are under-explored. We develop a set of propositions for exploring linkages in socio-technical systems, supporting these with empirical examples from the region.     

Do expectations matter? Reassessing the effects of government spending on key macroeconomic variables in Germany

This article contributes to the debate on how to properly identify exogenous fiscal shocks in the data. We include expectations held by consumers and firms into the standard vector autoregression (VAR) framework based on information from historical issues of the German political magazine Der Spiegel. The findings underscore the need to account for expectations, as failing to do so leads to significant misinterpretation of the effects of government spending. When neglecting anticipation effects, our results support the recent findings for Germany by pointing to a rather positive effect of government spending on GDP. However, inclusion of expectations yields a change in this effect, suggesting that government spending is much less beneficial for GDP, as it crowds out private consumption and investment.     

Barro-Gordon revisited: Reputational equilibria with inferential expectations

We incorporate inferential expectations into the Barro-Gordon model (Barro and Gordon, 1983a) of time inconsistency and consider reputational equilibria. The range of sustainable equilibria shrinks as the private sector becomes more belief-conservative.     

Local niche planning and its strategic implications for implementation of energy-efficient technology

It is widely recognised that the world is facing climate challenges that necessitate transitions towards more energy-efficient buildings. A key challenge is that visions of energy efficient buildings in policies often fail to become aligned with existing local practices. In order to overcome such a gap between policy visions and their implementation in practice specific forms of strategic work is needed, according to new transformative ideas in spatial planning. The aim of this paper is to characterize the transformative capacities of this kind of strategic work at the spatial scale of the town in order to assess how such activities engage with sustainable transitions. The theoretical contribution of the paper is to compare strategic work performed in transformative forms of spatial planning with the strategic work intended in strategic niche management, which represent a change-management process for enabling transitions. The study outlines the proactive spatial planning of a Danish local authority in order to illustrate how the strategic work performed in this kind of local development project represents a special form of niche management that is able to create room for innovation and challenge existing socio-technical regimes in the building sector, but still different to typical strategic niche management processes. Based on this empirical study, the paper challenges the narrow focus on niches around technology development processes in strategic niche management by pointing towards niche planning in local development projects as another relevant context for niche management. However, as discussed in the paper, this assumes a more strategic form of planning than is often practised today, where more emphasis is put on how planning can contribute to promoting sustainable transitions.     

Mapping issues and envisaging futures: An evolutionary scenario approach

In parallel with the increasing complexity and uncertainty of social, technological, economic, environmental, political and value systems (STEEPV), there is a need for a systemic approach in Foresight. Recognizing this need, the paper begins with the introduction of the Systemic Foresight Methodology (SFM) is introduced briefly as a conceptual framework to understand and appreciate the complexity of systems and interdependencies and interrelationships between their elements. Conducting Foresight systemically involves a set of ‘systemic’ thought experiments, which is about how systems (e.g. human and social systems, industrial/sectoral systems, and innovation systems) are understood, modelled and intervened for a successful change programme. A methodological approach is proposed with the use of network analysis to show an application of systemic thinking in Foresight through the visualisation of interrelationships and interdependencies between trends, issues and actors, and their interpretation to explain the evolution of systems. Network analysis is a powerful approach as it is able to analyse both the whole system of relations and parts of the system at the same time and hence it reveals the otherwise hidden structural properties of the systems. Our earlier work has attempted to incorporate network analysis in Foresight, which helped to reveal structural linkages of trends and identify emerging important trends in the future. Following from this work, in this paper we combine systemic Foresight, network analysis and scenario methods to propose an ‘Evolutionary Scenario Approach,’ which explains the ways in which the future may unfold based on the mapping of the gradual change and the dynamics of aspects or variables that characterise a series of circumstances in a period of time. Thus, not only are evolutionary scenarios capable of giving a snapshot of a particular future, but also explaining the emerging transformation pathways of events and situations from the present into the future as systemic narratives.     

Environmental rationalities and the development state in East Asia: Prospects for a sustainability transition

This paper reviews what is known about recent trends in environmental governance among the newly industrializing countries of East Asia and the implications of these developments for a sustainability transition within the region. The conceptual starting point for the review is research that examines sustainability transitions within the framework of a multi-level perspective on system innovation. One of the challenges presented by this framework is that of understanding how existing political economies and governance structures promote stability or change in socio-technical regimes. By socio-technical regimes we mean the predominant organizational, social and technological configurations through which societal needs are constituted and met. In the case of the rapidly industrializing and urbanizing economies of East Asia, the trajectory of socio-technical regimes will have profound consequences for local, regional and global environments. Our review of trends in environmental governance as they relate to socio-technical regimes within the region traces a pattern of initial efforts to strengthen environmental regulatory regimes very much along the lines of the policy models of OECD economies. The degree to which these initial efforts have taken root varies from country to country in the region. What is beginning to emerge in several countries within the region, however, are a variety of policy and institutional innovations that hold promise for opening up spaces for change in socio-technical regimes, and for creating opportunities for new pathways of industrialization and urbanization to take hold that are less pollution, materials and energy-intensive.     

A comparison between the log-linear and the parameterized expectations methods

This paper compares the performance of a log-linear method and a parameterized expectations method in solving a dynamic general equilibrium endogenous growth model with human capital. Quantitative evaluation based on second moment statistics shows that the results provided by the two numerical methods are very similar in this framework whenever the propagation mechanism of technology shocks is weak. However, the cross correlations of some relevant variables in the RBC literature obtained from the two methods are significantly different when the model exhibits a strong propagation mechanism. The parameterized expectations method captures the sensitiviness of second moment statistics to the curvature of the utility function while the log-linear method does not.     

Using the multi-level perspective on socio-technical transitions to assess innovation policy

In recent years a growing literature on socio-technical transitions towards sustainability has emerged. Scholars have explored ways through which configurations of technologies, infrastructures, social practices, institutions and markets can change to fulfil their functions in a more sustainable way. A multi-level perspective (MLP) has been developed to describe and analyse these complex, long-term processes. It has also been used to help design policy for example in the Netherlands. In this paper the MLP is used in a novel way: as a heuristic to ex ante assess policies to stimulate socio-technical transitions. Instead of using it for policy development, the MLP is used here for an assessment of policy. The analysis focuses on a particular policy initiative intended to stimulate the transition to a low carbon economy in the UK: the Carbon Trust. This paper makes two contributions to the socio-technical transitions literature: Conceptually, the paper demonstrates the usefulness of the socio-technical multi-level perspective to analyse policies and assess their likely impact ex ante against the background of theorising about the patterns of large scale, socio-technical change. Empirically, the paper finds that the activities of the Carbon Trust consist of a variety of well targeted ways to stimulate the development of socio-technical niches as well as to change regime practices directly. Nevertheless, the paper argues that this model also faces difficulties in promoting a transition towards a low carbon economy.     

Toward a sustainable society : The private sector in six guises

The meaning of a sustainable society is discussed to provide a framework for considering the role of the private sector. Duration and extent are polarized as long versus short and global versus local. Fundamental forces of geo-politics, social organization and technology argue for a focus on short duration and local extent.Population pressures and standard of living are of central concern in attaining a sustainable society. The target must be a stable population with a rising standard of living. Because resources are limited, the private sector's major role must be in the efficient use of resources to create wealth.To this end, it is well adapted. It consists, generally, of privately owned firms, employing shareholders' capital, to make a profit in a market economy. These characteristics, however, place major constraints on its ability to adopt noneconomic objectives of a social nature or in pursuit of a sustainable society. A number of responses to this dilemma are beginning to emerge, both in theory and practice. To help understand the complexity that constitutes modern economic life and its socio-political environment, the private sector is viewed in six guises: wealth creator, corporate citizen, benevolent despot, reluctant social partner, cooperative social partner, and private patron. Discussion concentrates on the significance of each of these for the sustainable society.Finally, some thought is given to the significance of the private sector as a model for institutional flexibility in a sustainable society.     

Asian development pathways and sustainable socio-technical regimes

Rapid industrialisation in Asia is generating a significant new demand for raw materials and pressure on local, regional and global environments. In the future these demands and pressures are expected to increase markedly. These concerns are models of development that assume that economic growth follows a pattern leading to a convergence between the structure, growth and productivity of economies over the long run. In these models, the structure of industries and sectors, technological capabilities and consumer preferences are regarded as converging towards patterns established in more advanced economies. By extension, convergence is also assumed to hold for the resource intensity and environmental pressure associated with growth in industrialising countries. This paper argues for greater attention to the resource and environmental quality of development. It argues that by applying ideas from an emerging literature on ‘systems innovation’ it becomes possible to envisage the emergence of new, more resource-efficient socio-technical systems as the basis of more sustainable development pathways in developing Asia. Such sustainable socio-technical systems will emerge in the context of interaction between domestic and globalised markets, knowledge flows and governance. Key issues for a research agenda are set out.     

Vision 2023: Turkey's national Technology Foresight Program: A contextualist analysis and discussion

Likewise many other developed and developing countries, a national Technology Foresight Program was carried out in Turkey under the name of Vision 2023. This paper analyzes and discusses the Vision 2023 Technology Foresight Program from a contextualist perspective. The contextualist perspective suggests relationships between the context, content and process of change; and thus proposes that any change activity should be designed, organized and implemented by considering these relationships. This viewpoint is seen as a necessary condition for the achievement of change in organizations and society. In this respect, the Vision 2023 Program is considered in its own national and organizational contexts by discussing (i) how the factors in these contexts affected particular decisions taken on the content and approaches adopted in the process and (ii) how problems emerged when these relationships were dismissed. Through the analysis, the paper suggests that a Foresight program should be organized, designed and practised by considering the effects of the external contexts (e.g. national, regional and/or corporate contexts) and structural and behavioral factors stemming from these different context levels along with the nature of the issue being worked on, which constitute the content of the exercise.     

英国技术前瞻研究工作全景

英国的技术前瞻研究工作发源于1994年的技术预测计划,现已成为英国政府的一项常规工作。英国技术前瞻研究组挂靠在商业、创新和技能部下属的政府科学办公室,有优秀的研究队伍和稳定的经费支持,其开展的项目涉及新兴科学和技术面临的挑战和机遇以及围绕科技能发挥作用的重大社会问题,例如,全球变化、应对肥胖和洪涝灾害等。技术前瞻研究项目的研究报告和提出的有关建议,不仅对英国政府制定政策提供了重要参考,也对国际社会关于一些重大问题的判断和应对措施产生了较大影响。通过对英国技术前瞻研究工作的由来、已经完成和正在开展的项目、核心研究团队、项目的遴选标准和特点等进行系统介绍,并以案例的形式阐述了其前瞻研究项目对政府部门的影响,旨在为我国开展相关工作提供参考借鉴。     

Conditions and intervention strategies for the deliberate acceleration of socio-technical transitions: lessons from a comparative multi-level analysis of two historical case studies in Dutch and Danish heating

ABSTRACT

Policy-oriented transition frameworks such as Strategic Niche Management, Transition Management, and Technological Innovation Systems offer limited analytical traction on deliberately accelerated socio-technical transitions. Using the Multi-Level Perspective as guiding framework, we therefore inductively explore the political acceleration of socio-technical transitions by investigating two deliberately accelerated heating transitions: the transition from coal and oil to natural gas in the Netherlands (1948–1973), and the transition from oil to district heating in Denmark (1945–1990), to draw lessons about the conditions and intervention strategies that facilitate rapid socio-technical change. We find that both cases were characterised by weakened regimes, stabilised niche-innovations, focusing events, and consensus between policymakers and business actors. User resistance was also low in both cases, partly because of public policies. Different focusing events in each case produced problem-driven versus opportunity-driven transition pathways; the former destabilised existing regimes but generated future-oriented uncertainty, while the latter facilitated rapid closure.     

Restructuring as a signal: a simple formalization

Several studies have stressed that, contrary to initial expectations, state-owned firms at the beginning of the transition undertook painful measures to adjust to the new economic environment. This paper investigates this behaviour in a simple game theoretic framework. It is argued that the massive amount of lay-offs created by state-owned firms during the initial phase of the transition can be interpreted as a signal directed to the banking sector in order to obtain more favourable financing conditions for the subsequent process of restructuring. The conclusions are strongly supported by Polish firm-level empirical evidence.
JEL classification: P31, C72.     

The Institutional Theory of Radhamakal Mukerjee: Lessons for Modern Nonprofit Economics

This paper examines the way the institutional economics of Radhamakal Mukerjee can inform modern nonprofit economics. A brief survey of Mukerjee's work highlights several elements of his theory that yield useful implications understanding the nonprofit sector. First, Mukerjee's theory implies that this sector's role is in helping the economies to better accommodate broader societal values, rather than in addressing market failure. Second, his theory suggests that the nonprofit sector provides an institutional framework for the pursuit of common interests that are not reducible to individual utility maximization. Finally, as he considered the state to be inherently coercive, he believed the nonprofit sector to be the only meaningful outlet for citizenship behavior, thus advancing an original theory of complementary state-nonprofit relationship. The paper concludes with calling for more institutionalist research on the economics of the nonprofit sector.