Application of technology roadmaps for renewable energy sector

Technology Roadmapping (TRM) is a growing technique widely used for strategy planning and aligning technology with overall business objectives. Technology roadmaps are extensively used in many diverse fields at product, technology, industry, company and national levels. An increasing number of articles published on TRM and technology roadmaps indicate that there is a growing attention for TRM among the researchers from academia, industry and government. In this article, an overview of the application of TRM in renewable energy sector has been provided. After survey of the relevant academic literature and industry roadmaps, we tried to group the roadmaps related to the renewable energy technologies into national, industry/sector and organizational level roadmaps. Research findings indicate that goals and objectives of renewable energy roadmaps are different at these three levels. At national level, roadmaps focus on future energy security, energy dependence, energy policy formulation and environment protection. At industry/sector level, roadmaps are used to identify vision, common needs and evaluate barriers, constraints and risks faced by the industry from technical, political and commercial aspects. Organizational roadmap focuses on evaluation and prioritization of R&D projects to achieve the business goals. Similarly different methods, tools and approaches are used to develop roadmaps at different levels. Various other characteristics of these roadmaps are also discussed and analyzed. Research findings also indicate that greater numbers of roadmaps are developed for those renewable energy technologies undergoing rapid growth. Moreover, most of these roadmaps are developed in the regions where more research, development and deployment activities of renewable energy technologies is taking place.     

Technology roadmap through fuzzy cognitive map-based scenarios: the case of wind energy sector of a developing country

In this research, a national-level wind energy roadmap is developed through scenario planning. Multiple future scenarios are developed using the fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) approach. This research has extended technology roadmapping (TRM) through FCM-based scenario analysis. Building scenarios with FCM is a new approach, and for the first time, to the best of our knowledge, FCM-based scenarios are developed for the wind energy sector of a developing country. Based on these multiple scenarios, a TRM has been developed. Scenario planning and TRM techniques are combined in this study. This research approach is applied to the wind energy sector of Pakistan as a research case. The TRM has four layers: strategic objectives, targets, barriers, and action items. Expert judgement is used to develop scenarios and TRMs.     

Technology foresight for a vision of energy sector development in Poland till 2030. Delphi survey as an element of technology foresighting

The security of energy supply at national level is one of the most fundamental missions of every government. This task becomes especially vital in view of the current situation on global energy markets. The planning of technological development in the energy and fuel sectors is a relevant element of energy security strategies. This in turn leads to a more rational and efficient energy use in the future. Technology foresight, which emerged as a proven instrument of technology policy during the 1950s, becomes nowadays one of the essential tools for the creation of the future technological development worldwide. A project entitled: “The Scenarios of Technological Development of Fuel and Energy Sector for National Energy Security” was the first foresight project in the field of energy technologies and at the same time the first technology foresight activity in Poland. This project was being carried out in the period of 2006-2007 by a consortium of research and development institutes on the request of the Polish Ministry of Economy. The aim of the project was to indicate energy and fuel sector development directions in the time horizon up to 2030 and identify key energy technologies of strategic importance. As a result of the foresight activity, technology development scenarios in the energy and fuel sector in Poland as well as corresponding roadmaps for their implementation were formulated. The project results should be helpful in drafting national energy policies and they will indicate priority pathways of research and development (R&D) activities in the next years.The energy foresight project was based mainly on a Delphi method that is nowadays widely applied as a valuable foresight tool. This future-oriented intuitive method was engaged for the qualitative and quantitative assessment of probable developments in the future and for their time scale evaluation as well. In this article, the results of the conducted two-round Delphi survey were presented.     

Dealing with the dynamics of technology roadmapping implementation: A case study

Nowadays, companies are facing many challenges. The product life cycle is getting shorter while the complexity and the demand for product customization are increasing. Technology Roadmapping (TRM) has been widely used as a strategic management tool to help organizations in effectively identifying potential products or services for the future, determining proper technology alternatives, and mapping them with resource allocation plans. With the completion of TRM implementation, any organization can be assured that its required technologies and infrastructures will be ready when needed. Implementing TRM as a part of the ongoing strategic/business planning process is challenging because it may affect the organizational work process, structure, and culture. Therefore, an organization needs to understand how the changing roles and responsibilities of key players involved in the TRM process match with the dynamics of TRM implementation in each stage. This paper illustrates the dynamics of TRM implementation and presents a case study to demonstrate how one of the leading building product manufacturers in the ASEAN region went through the process.     

Evaluating technology disruptiveness in a strategic corporate context: A case study

This study examines how firms interpret new, potentially disruptive technologies in their own strategic context. The study uses a propositional framework for evaluating the amount of radical change in the companies' business models with two middle variables, the disruptiveness potential of a new technology, and the strategic importance of a new technology to a firm. The framework is used in a cross-case analysis of four potentially disruptive technologies or technical operating models: Bluetooth, WLAN, Grid computing and Mobile Peer-to-peer paradigm. The technologies were investigated from the perspective of three mobile operators, a device manufacturer and a software company in the ICT industry.The data was gathered in group-discussion sessions in each company. The results of each case analysis were brought together to evaluate, how firms interpret the potential disruptiveness in terms of changes in product characteristics and added value, technology and market uncertainty, changes in product-market positions, possible competence disruption and changes in value network positions. The results indicate that the perceived disruptiveness in terms of product characteristics does not necessarily translate into strategic importance. In addition, firms did not see the new technologies as a threat in terms of potential competence disruption.     

Implementing a technology strategy in developing countries: The experience of the Indonesian rolling stock industry

Integration of business and technology strategies is an attractive approach for industries in developing countries. However, to be successful, these strategies cannot be implemented according to a company's objectives alone regardless of the involvement of other players. Furthermore, consideration of interrelated technologies should be included if a product resulting from the strategy is expected to perform well and be sustainable. This article attempts to give a broader view of factors to be considered in implementing business technology strategies in developing countries. Supporting evidence is given from the rolling stock industry in Indonesia, which has been implementing a type of business technology strategy.     

Socio-Political Evaluation of Energy Deployment (SPEED): An integrated research framework analyzing energy technology deployment

Stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases to reduce the risks of climate change requires a major transition in society's energy infrastructure; yet despite a growing sense of urgency, deployment of alternative emerging energy technologies has been slow and uncertain. This paper proposes a systematic, interdisciplinary framework for the integrated analysis of regulatory, legal, political, economic, and social factors that influence energy technology deployment decisions at the state level to enhance awareness of the interconnections and enable improved energy policy and planning and accelerated change in society's energy infrastructure. This framework, Socio-Political Evaluation of Energy Deployment, (SPEED), integrates analysis of laws, regulations, institutions and policy actors as well as varying regional perceptions and levels of awareness about the risks and benefits of emerging energy technologies to facilitate improved understanding of the complex interconnected components of state energy systems. While this framework has been developed with U.S. states as a model, the SPEED framework is generalizable to other countries with different sub-national structures. We present three research methods that could be applied within the SPEED framework that could be particularly helpful in understanding the integrated socio-political influences on energy technology deployment: (1) policy review and analysis, (2) media analysis, and (3) focus groups and structured interviews with key stakeholders. By integrating the fields of technology diffusion, environmental policy, comparative analysis of states, and risk perception, future empirical research conducted within this SPEED framework will improve understanding of the interconnected socio-political influences on energy technology deployment to enable energy modelers, policy-makers, energy professionals, state planners and other stakeholders to develop and implement more effective strategies to accelerate the deployment of emerging energy technologies.     

The effectiveness of home energy audits: A case study of Jackson,Wyoming

This study examines the factors that influence households to adopt modifications recommended by home energy audits and whether these audits lead to significant reductions in electricity use. Household decisions after the audits are recorded along with the corresponding recommended modifications and the offers for co-funding. A discrete choice model of the household decision after the audit is estimated. The results indicate that the potential improvement in heating efficiency from the proposed modifications increase the probability of implementing conservation measures. Co-funding offers also significantly raise the odds of accepting the modifications but are relatively less important than anticipated efficiency improvements. Several approaches are used to determine whether and how much energy is saved after the audits. Electricity demand models are estimated using data two years before and after each household audit. For households who decide to modify their houses after the audit, monthly average electricity use per square foot decreases 7%. While there is an estimated 2% reduction in electricity use attributed to the audit by households who decided not to adopt the proposed modifications, this reduction is not statistically significant, casting doubt on the presence of modifications in behavior from the audit information itself. For all households audited, the results from the electricity demand models suggest that the LVE home energy audit program reduced household electricity use 4.7%. In contrast, a differences-in-differences approach using synthetic control groups based upon a smaller but still sizeable sample of 2000 observations finds that home energy audits reduce household electricity use by more than 10%. Overall, these findings suggest that home audits result in modest but significant reductions in energy use and that co-funding encourages investments that otherwise may not be privately optimal.     

Barriers to energy efficiency: A comparison across the German commercial and services sector

Based on a large sample for the German commercial and services sector, this paper econometrically assesses the relevance of various types of barriers to energy efficiency at the sectoral level and across fifteen sub-sectors. The results at the level of entire sectors suggest that the lack of information about energy consumption patterns and about energy efficiency measures, lack of staff time, priority setting within organizations, and - in particular - the investor/user dilemma are all relevant barriers. Allowing for sector-specific differences in the relevance of these individual barriers yields a more heterogeneous picture. The numbers and types of relevant barriers vary across sub-sectors, and the majority of sub-sectors are subject to relatively few barriers. The statistically most significant barriers are found for the sub-sector of public administrations. These findings are robust, independent of whether the definition of an organization's energy efficiency performance includes only measures that have actually been realized or also those that are being planned. For planned projects, however, organizations appear to underestimate internal priority setting as a barrier to energy efficiency.     

A study of zoning for energy security in China

As a result of more and more serious energy risks, the study of national energy security zoning is not only the basic requirement of energy risk management but also the new demand of economic development for the energy industry. Firstly, this paper analyzes the basic situation of energy resources and production and consumption of primary. energy from 1996 to 2005 in China. Secondly; this paper founds an Energy Security Index System formed by six indices including the percentage of energy reserves, interlocal dependent degree, energy elasticity coefficient and so on. It subsequently calculates the weight of these indices with the factor analysis rating method Lastly, the paper evaluates and zones the abilities of energy security of 30 provinces in China with the grey chuster method According to their security; the 30 provinces are classified into three different levels： high, medium, and low levels. The regions at low energy security level include Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan. They are mainly littoral and short of primary energy production while mostly dependent on other provinces. Those at medium energy security level include 15 provinces （cities or districts）, such as Liaoning, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Hunan and so on. These provinces are in the northeast, north, east of and central China. Those at high energy security level contain Shanxi. lnner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Chongqing, Sichuan, Shaanxi. Xinjiang. These provinces are the main primary energy production bases.     

A new definition and framework for the development of a national technology strategy: The case of nanotechnology for Iran

In this research, we use the concepts of “national technology policy” as well as the “firm technology strategy” in defining a new definition for “national technology strategy”. Then, by examining several national technology strategies in a variety of fields in different countries the national nanotechnology strategy for Iran is developed. Furthermore, using capability-effectiveness matrix and SWOT analysis we identify strategies of nanotechnology development in Iran. Finally, considering other countries' strategies and the results of PROMETHEE Method, we prioritize different areas of nanotechnology for Iranian economy, and test for the validity of the extracted strategies.     

Tracking emerging technologies in energy research: Toward a roadmap for sustainable energy

Science and technology for renewable and sustainable energy are indispensable for our future society and economics. To meet the goal of sustainable energy development, there is a growing body of research efforts world wide. The planner of energy research has to grasp the broader coverage of scientific and technological research, and make decisions on effective investment in promising and emerging technologies especially under circumstances of limited resources. In this paper, we track emerging research domains in energy research by using citation network analysis. Our analysis confirms that the fuel cell and solar cell are rapidly growing domains in energy research. We further investigate the detailed structure of these two domains by clustering publications in these domains. Each citation cluster has characteristic research topics, and there is a variety of growth trends among the clusters. By using citation network analysis, we can track emerging research domains among a pile of publications efficiently and effectively.     

Evaluating state cooperative technology programs: With a Virginia case study, and comparative data from Illinois

One of the strategies for economic development to emerge during the 1970s and 1980s to stem decline due to industrial restructuring in the United States was the formation of science and technology initiatives in many states. This strategy was of interest because it suggests the creation of high-wage jobs through the application and development of technology. States in the industrialized part of the United States were losing large numbers of high-wage industrial jobs, as restructuring occurred and the jobs moved offshore or were replaced with technology. These initiatives took several forms including, in some states, departments or secretariats of technology, the formation of authorities that were state agencies but one step removed from the legislature and executive branches and the initiatives that were set up as nonprofit corporations. Today, science and technology programs exist in every state of the United States.In the mid-1990s, the authors were asked to develop a methodology to measure the outputs and outcomes of one of the state centers in science and technology, a program that was increasingly being focused on technology and commercialization rather than primarily on basic or pure research. A methodology was created by the authors in collaboration with the Battelle Institute and was implemented first in 1996. The purpose of this paper is to explain the methodology developed and how it was implemented in an effort to illustrate a number of issues that arise around the issue of evaluating such programs and to explore the policy impact of such studies. The issues include sample selection, survey design, interview protocol, management of client and research team relations, validity and research protocol.     

On the conception and measurement of technology: A case study of the aircraft design process

This study is aimed at the development of a theory of the measurement of technology. Several distinct contributions are offered: (1) The existing approaches to the measurement of technological change, including the economic theory of quality change, are concluded to be inappropriate. A statistical version of dimensional analytic theory is presented as an alternative approach and is applied to the illustrative case of aircraft. (2) A dimensional analytic framework is proposed as an alternative to the neoclassical economic conception of the production function. (3) A theory is proposed and substantiated stating that once the basic configuration is established, the evolution of technological systems proceeds in small steps. The role of fundamental knowledge in the process of design appears to be relatively small and fundamental shifts in individual production functions are far less frequent than is commonly believed. (4) It is shown that a dimensional analytic approach transforms the characteristics of different systems to a common domain that also makes comprehensive measurement of intertechnology change a possibility.     

Information in the hiring process: A case study

A variety of theoretical models have been concerned with the extent to which economic agents base their decisions on full information. This paper describes the stages of the hiring process for secretaries in a large conglomerate, the information sources used at each stage, and then estimates the relative importance of each source. Almost all applicants are interviewed when they apply and the interviewer's comments are a significant source of information. But in spite of the firm's use of complex information, it appears that the people hired are not likely to do well than those applicants not hired.     

Technology assessment: Impact of high-tech engineering research on energy consumption

A technology assessment (TA) program was launched in Switzerland in 1991. One project in the series of pilot projects was meant to assess the impact of so-called LESIT technologies on energy consumption. (LESIT was a priority research program and a German acronym for power electronics, systems and information technology.) In this paper the institutional environment, applied methods and main results of the TA study are summarised. One of the questions that arose was whether it is reasonable to expect a high-tech engineering research program to serve any societal goals other than the more immediate technical and economic goals the research partners in university and industry are accustomed to follow. It was found that without special efforts this expectation was not realistic. Politically desirable goals are best served when enough emphasis, time, and money are given to the process of bringing together research partners from academia and industry who all have a (self-serving) interest in furthering the politically desirable goal and then support their collaboration.     

Developing scenario-based technology roadmap in the big data era: an utilisation of fuzzy cognitive map and text mining techniques

ABSTRACT

Scenario-based technology roadmaps (TRM) have been used to analyse future uncertainties in the technology planning phase. However, there is a limitation in the existing related studies that the internal and external factors of the increasing uncertainty of the future are not considered. In response, this study proposes a framework that analyses the textual big data to understand the relationship between factors that may affect future uncertainty and build a TRM through scenarios based on these relationships. To do this, Fuzzy Cognitive Map technique, which analyses causal relationships between various factors in fuzzy graph form, is incorporated into TRM. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed framework, an illustrative case study was conducted using real data for an unmanned aerial vehicle. This study is expected to help integrate and utilise big data effectively in the technology planning stage.     

The development of research and innovation policies based on a benchmarking assessment: the case of mobile communications technology R&D in the new member states of the EU

This paper presents the process and the results that led to an objective assessment of 34 research programmes from 14 countries based on a multifactor analysis. The programmes that were analysed come from the EU's new member states and the accession countries. The methodology used was specially developed for policy development purposes and for the design of the roadmaps leading to an open and successful R&D programme in the area of mobile communications. The method and the results obtained and later used for the policy development and road mapping are discussed. The policies designed and strategic objectives derived are briefly described. The consequences expected to follow the policy implementation in the relevant countries are evaluated and discussed.     

Incorporating contextual information in public sector efficiency analyses: a comparative study of NSW local government

Using the planning and regulatory function of 173 NSW local governments, several approaches for incorporating contextual or non-discretionary inputs in data envelopment analysis (DEA) are compared. Non-discretionary inputs (or factors beyond managerial control) in this context include the population growth rate and distribution, the level of development and non-residential building activity, and the proportion of the population from a non-English speaking background. The approaches selected to incorporate these variables include discretionary inputs only, non-discretionary and discretionary inputs treated alike and differently, categorical inputs, ‘adjusted’ DEA, and ‘endogenous’ DEA. The results indicate that the efficiency scores of the five approaches that incorporated non-discretionary factors were significantly positively correlated. However, it was also established that the distributions of the efficiency scores and the number of councils assessed as perfectly technically efficient in the six approaches also varied significantly across the sample.     

基于过程论的企业策划研究

企业策划即企业界进行的各种经营管理活动的策划,是一个连动优化、多阶循环的系统过程。文章从过程的角度对企业策划进行分析,旨在借助过程方法,系统地识别企业策划程序,通过过程的管理和控制,减少企业策划的失误,提高策划的效率和成功率,满足企业的策划要求。