Ex-ante evaluation of the consumers' preference for the 4th generation mobile communications service

Research about next-generation mobile communications (MCs) technology has become an issue in these days since MCs bear a close relationship to our daily lives. The third generation (3G) MCs technology is now evolving into the fourth generation (4G) MCs technology. An initial analysis of potential consumer preferences for the technology is essential to ensure successful strategies and changes. This paper attempts to apply a choice experiment to evaluating consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) for each attributes of the 4G technology. The experiment encompasses five attributes: data rates, the quality of communications service, the number of broadcasting channels, video-on-demand (VOD) service, and supplementary services. We consider the trade-offs between the price and attributes of the 4G for selecting a preferred alternative and derive the marginal WTP (MWTP) estimate for each attribute. The results indicate that the average MWTP for the improved communications service is KRW 4443 (USD 4.03) and the average MWTP for one more broadcasting channel is KRW 67 (USD 0.06). The average MWTPs for VOD and supplementary services is KRW 1932 (USD 1.75) and KRW 1601 (USD 1.45), respectively.     

Beyond mobile number portability: measuring consumer preferences for service portability in Japan's mobile phone market

Japan's mobile phone market has been oligopolized by three incumbents who are seeking vertically integrated business models, which may prevent competitors from using platform layers to provide original services. We conduct two types of conjoint analysis to measure consumer stated preferences and draw two main conclusions from the analyses. First, the average consumer is willing to pay more than JPY 2000 (US $20) to increase mobile service portability. Second, the average consumer's willingness to pay corresponds to JPY 100–200 (US $1–2) per song for securing music download platforms. A dilemma exists in consumer preferences for service portability in Japan's mobile phone market, namely the choice between free mobile service portability and convenient music download platforms.     

中国手机电视的运营模式策略探析

中国手机电视业务的出现，加剧了手机发挥效用的环境条件的复杂性。当前中国手机电视运营遇到的问题主要有政策管制缺位及政策支持不力、手机电视接收终端技术不成熟、受众享用成本高、手机电视服务市场缺乏成熟的合作模式、手机电视节目内容严重匮乏、公共手机电视缺位等。政府应对手机电视业务给予政策支持。政府发展公共手机电视，市场发展商业性手机电视，并从传输网络、电视内容、收费模式等方面提出手机电视运营模式的发展方向。     

Demand forecasting for new media services with consideration of competitive relationships using the competitive Bass model and the theory of the niche

New broadcasting services such as Internet protocol TV (IPTV) have been totally revolutionizing the broadcasting industry; thus, the prediction of the degree of diffusion of new media services is a major topic of interest for both governments and providers. This paper proposes a new approach towards demand forecasting for new services with no data and with consideration of competitive relationships with existing services. The underlying model of the proposed approach is the competitive Bass model, which is the most widely used competitive diffusion model. The competition coefficients of the model are estimated by introducing the theory of the niche. The theory of the niche, which originates from ecology, has often been used as a framework for examining competition patterns in the media industry. This study develops a new integrated measure, competitive superiority, by modifying and combining the two conventional measures of the theory of the niche, viz., niche overlap and niche superiority. The competition coefficients are then obtained by adjusting the values of competitive superiority to be incorporated in the model based on the relationship between competition and imitation effects. A case of Korean digital broadcasting services is presented to illustrate the proposed approach.     

Forecasting future demand for large-screen television sets using conjoint analysis with diffusion model

The methodological framework proposed in this paper addresses two limitations of the basic Bass diffusion model: that it does not reflect competition among products nor does it forecast demand for products that do not exist in the marketplace. The model consists of four steps. First, to investigate consumer preferences for product attributes, we use conjoint analysis to estimate the utility function of consumers. Next we estimate the dynamic price function of each competing product to reflect technological changes and the evolving market environment. Then we derive dynamic utility function by combining the static utility function and the price function. Finally, we forecast the sales of each product using estimated market share and sales data for each period, which are derived from the dynamic utility function and from the Bass diffusion model, respectively.We apply this model to South Korea's market for large-screen televisions. The results show that (1) consumers are sensitive to picture resolution and cost and (2) in the near future, should the market see the introduction of liquid crystal display (LCD) TVs with screens larger than 50 inches, the high resolution and steep price drop of LCD will lead LCD TVs to capture a larger market share than TVs with other display types. Finally, our results show that TVs with 40-inch screens are preferred over TVs with larger screens.     

国外移动服务消费者行为研究综述

移动通信产业的迅猛发展,引起了学者们广泛的研究兴趣。文章对国外关于移动服务消费者行为的文献进行梳理,结果表明,当前的研究聚焦于移动服务消费者的满意度和忠诚度、移动服务采纳理论、移动服务资费、移动服务消费者特性等对消费者行为影响的研究上。最后,提出了对移动消费者行为的未来研究及展望。     

The switchover to digital broadcasting in Korea

This study investigates the development of Korean digital TV transition by tracing the interaction between social and technological entities from various perspectives at different developmental stages. A socio-technical analysis examines the dynamic interactions among the stakeholders in the switchover to digital broadcasting, showing how the various actions taken by leading stakeholders affect diverse groups of stakeholders. The overall findings show that Korean digital TV transition is the outcome of a proactive strategy by industry stakeholders and the Korean government's top–down policy of supporting such a transition. It is argued that the policy of a top–down transition, which overlooks coordination among stakeholders, harms consumers and hinders effective and sustainable development. The case of Korea has implications for other countries that are pursuing digital transition strategies.     

VEHICLE CHOICE BEHAVIOR AND THE DECLINING MARKET SHARE OF U.S. AUTOMAKERS*

We develop a consumer‐level model of vehicle choice to shed light on the erosion of the U.S. automobile manufacturers' market share during the past decade. We examine the influence of vehicle attributes, brand loyalty, product line characteristics, and dealerships. We find that nearly all of the loss in market share for U.S. manufacturers can be explained by changes in basic vehicle attributes, namely: price, size, power, operating cost, transmission type, reliability, and body type. U.S. manufacturers have improved their vehicles' attributes but not as much as Japanese and European manufacturers have improved the attributes of their vehicles.     

Estimating consumer preferences for online music services

This article analyses consumer preferences with regard to important attributes of online music services. Conjoint analysis and a random coefficient discrete choice model using Bayesian approach with Gibbs sampling are used to estimate the preferences. Based on the quantitative results, we use simulation to look at how a new pricing strategy and the threat of legal penalty for file sharing would influence the online music market. Findings include these: estimated willingness to pay for downloading one music file is significantly less than the actual price of the file; consumers are sensitive to longer search and download times for music files and very sensitive to the threat of legal action; and consumers are not sensitive to online music services broadening their catalogues. Finally, the simulation shows that a combination of increased transaction costs for illegal file sharing and lower-priced digital music files would inhibit illegal file sharing and bolster the number of people purchasing music legally from the online services.     

STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY: AN APPLICATION TO SOUTH KOREA

This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model and studies structural change in a small open economy with two tradable sectors, agriculture and manufacturing, and a non‐tradable sector, services. In addition to obtaining results for a falling employment share of agriculture and a rising share of services, we demonstrate analytically the hump‐shaped share of manufacturing by identifying two countervailing effects: the productivity effect and the Balassa–Samuelson effect. The first effect, arising from differential rates of productivity growth among sectors, increases the share of manufacturing; the second effect, together with low rates of substitution between products, enhances the service sector and eventually draws labour from the manufacturing sector. At the aggregate level, however, the economy maintains a constant rate of growth. We calibrate the model with data from South Korea and find that the calibration fits the country's historical path of structural change.     

Potential user factors driving adoption of IPTV. What are customers expecting from IPTV?

Internet Protocol Television (IPTV), the convergence services of television and Internet, is being rapidly developed around the world. The advent of digital technologies has changed the convergence market dramatically with the wide diffusion of the convergent services. Using the Technology Acceptance Model as a conceptual framework and method of logistic regression, this research analyzes the demand for IPTV by drawing data from 452 consumers. Individuals' responses to questions about whether they accept IPTV are collected and combined with observations of their socio-economic status and intrinsic/extrinsic factors modified from the Technology Acceptance Model. Results of logistic regression show two variables (intrinsic and extrinsic factors) that seem to explain what influences consumer behavior towards adopting IPTV. Overall, the logistic regression model explains over 50% of the variance in the IPTV adoption. The variances shed light on the multi-open platform environment that IPTV will forge.     

Performance comparison of two diffusion models in a saturated mobile phone market

This research examines a performance comparison of the Lotka–Volterra (LV) and extended Bass models in the saturated mobile phone market of the Republic of Korea. A three species LV model is developed and applied to Korean mobile phone service providers in terms of competitive impact. Fitting the historical data of the Korean mobile communication service market, the results show that the goodness of fit of the three species LV model in the case of competition among three companies is better than that of the extended Bass model. The advantages and disadvantages of the two models are discussed based on the results of empirical tests.     

Fixed-to-mobile call substitution and telephony market definition in Korea

An appropriate market definition is critical in most antitrust cases. In practice, antitrust authorities define economic markets in a deterministic manner with little concern about the risk involved in defining markets incorrectly. In contrast, this article proposes a probabilistic market definition method by which antitrust authorities can establish a statistical confidence level for their intended market-definition judgments. As an application, we examine the likelihood that the fixed-line and mobile telephony services in Korea can compete in the same economic market. Combining critical loss analysis with a hierarchical Bayes model for stated preference data, we find some evidence for the separation of the fixed-line and mobile telephony markets in present-day Korea. After discussing certain possible regulation biases for market definition, we predict that the two markets will converge in the near future as the mobile price premium continues to decrease.     

Unlocking the promise of mobile value-added services by applying new collaborative business models

Due to the intense voice service competition and subscriber growth saturation, the average revenue per user (ARPU) of mobile communications service providers continues to decline, thereby severely affecting their total revenue and profitability. To counter this challenge, mobile communications service providers are now moving from “tariff competition” to “service competition.” As mobile communications enter the next-generation network (NGN) era, network bandwidth and transmission speed are greatly enhanced. The enhancement enables mobile communications service providers to provide content-rich, multimedia value-added services to create new service value, meet demands of customers, and increase ARPU. To understand how to construct mobile value-added services, this study uses survey forms to collect feedback from 35 industry and research institution experts and scholars and to present systematically the finding on the mobile value-added services strategy. The research employs the analytic network process (ANP) to analyze the strategy of mobile service providers in delivering mobile services in the NGN. The business strategy evaluation framework and evaluation result can be used as guides for players in the mobile communications industry to review, improve, and enhance their service and strategy.     

Understanding mobile data services adoption: Demography, attitudes or needs?

Emerging technology enables industry to create products and services to fulfill previously unmet needs. Yet, the higher fixed costs and shrinking product life cycles associated with new digital technologies also generate business risk. While many companies engage in continuous innovation to maintain their market share, an innovation in itself does not guarantee success. Given these strategic shifts, traditional methods of segmentation are inadequate, especially in markets driven by flexible information and communication technologies (ICT). This study bridges this gap by examining existing innovation and market segmentation literature, proposing an integrative framework that incorporates knowledge from both, and validating this model through field research. Application of this integrative model can help service developers, facilitators and operators design, distribute and communicate new services to fulfill the needs of potential adopters.     

竞争促进、市场扩张与消费者福利增进——基于我国移动语音通信市场的面板数据

利用2002—2008年我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)电信市场的面板数据,采用对数差分两阶段最小二乘法,估计了我国移动语音通信市场的Marshall需求函数,进而测算了我国移动语音通信市场的消费者福利变化。结果表明:2002—2008年期间我国移动语音通信市场的消费者福利经历了一个持续增加的过程,但消费者福利增加呈明显的减缓趋势;消费者福利的持续增进主要是竞争导致的市场不断扩张和价格持续下降的结果,而价格下降速度变慢导致消费者福利增加趋缓;与发达国家相比,我国移动语音通信服务的价格仍然明显偏高,因此可进一步降低价格来增加消费者福利。