Evaluating mobile number portability policy in the Thai mobile telecommunications market

Mobile number portability (MNP), which allows consumers to retain their mobile numbers when switching service providers, is expected to promote competition by lowering switching costs. This paper estimates switching costs and switching costs reduction from the MNP policy in Thailand using the mixed logit model with preference heterogeneity on a nationwide survey of mobile telecommunications service usages. The estimation result shows that the MNP policy reduces switching costs by 37% on average and that this benefit is heterogeneous across consumers. The considerable and persistent switching costs call for additional measures to facilitate switching.     

Estimating switching costs after introducing Fixed-Mobile Convergence in Japan

In this study, based on a conjoint-type survey analysis, the switching cost of several Japanese telecom services are empirically examined simultaneously, contingent on each carrier’s bundling strategies. The results suggest the following conclusions. The hierarchy of switching costs is mobile phone service, fixed phone service, ISP (Internet Service Provider), and broadband access service, in descending order. Even if the government prohibits the formerly state-owned monopoly NTT from forming alliances with other carriers, the legacy NTT group would still command more than half of the market share under FMC if each carrier adopts a pure bundling strategy. If mixed bundling emerges as the primary strategy in the FMC market, the resulting type of competition from the introduction of FMC does not stimulate competitive pricing.     

网络产业中的转换成本研究综述

网络产业的融合化发展打破了传统的产业边界,但转换成本却影响公司跨产业经营,阻碍了网络融合的进展.本文通过对国内外学者在网络产业转换成本方面的研究进行分类综述,重点介绍了基于双双寡头模型的多期博弈,旨在介绍相关理论方法及重要研究成果.通过分析转换成本与市场进入的关系,本文指出了转换成本通过对用户产生锁定效用而增强在位企业的垄断力量,阻碍大规模的市场进入;转换成本助长寡头间的默契合谋,产生劣币驱逐良币现象,进而产生肥猫效应,导致新进入企业产生低效率进入;最后分析了对忠实用户采取隐瞒信息情况下转换成本所产生的竞争效果.研究结论拓宽了相关研究思路,并对于网络产业进一步融合发展具有一定的借鉴意义.     

The forecasting of the mobile Internet in Taiwan by diffusion model

From the government's perspective, it is very important to estimate the growing path of the mobile Internet market and then to forecast the trend. The purpose of this paper is to propose a diffusion model that reveals the growth pattern of the mobile Internet subscriber in Taiwan utilizing the concepts of the “technical substitution” and the “multi-product competition”, which suits the characteristics in the mobile Internet market in Taiwan. From the regression results, the estimated ultimate market potential of GPRS is 6.4 million, which is going to saturate in about 2008Q1. On the other hand, the estimated range of the market potential of PHS/3G is about 7.2 to 8.0 million. That is, the total mobile Internet market in Taiwan is forecasted to be around 13.6 to 14.4 million subscribers.     

Dynamics of volatility transmission between the U.S. and the Chinese agricultural futures markets

The U.S. and China are two of the biggest players in the world agricultural market. The literature documents that volatility in the U.S. agricultural futures market spills over significantly to that of China. This article provides further insights into the spillovers from China to the U.S. as well as the time horizon and dynamics of the bidirectional spillovers through the application of a multivariate extension of the heterogeneous autoregressive model, in relation to four commodities – soybean, wheat, corn and sugar. The results confirm the existence of significant spillovers from the U.S. to China for four commodities, which are primarily generated by the shorter-term volatility components in the U.S., and provide evidence for the increasing pricing power of the Chinese market. The findings are robust against various specifications and have important investment and policy implications.     

Diffusion of mobile telephony in India: An empirical study

Diffusion of new technology is an important driver of economic growth. In this paper, diffusion of mobile telephony in India is studied. There is a vast diffusion potential in this country which needs to be exploited efficiently and in a rational way. This paper investigates the social, technological, economical and political (STEP) factors that have influenced the diffusion process of mobile telephony especially the diffusion speed. The epidemic model, which is widely employed in the diffusion studies of mobile telephony, is used for the study. The data is fitted into logistic, gompertz, and bass models by nonlinear least squares and it is found that gompertz model best describes the diffusion process of mobile telephony in India. The study reveals that competition and government intervention played a significant role in accelerating the diffusion speed of mobile telephony by making the technology affordable. It is found that mobile telephony is a substitute for fixed line telephony in India. The findings will be useful in taking managerial decisions with respect to factors in forecasting and controlling the diffusion process of emerging technologies.     

Beyond mobile number portability: measuring consumer preferences for service portability in Japan's mobile phone market

Japan's mobile phone market has been oligopolized by three incumbents who are seeking vertically integrated business models, which may prevent competitors from using platform layers to provide original services. We conduct two types of conjoint analysis to measure consumer stated preferences and draw two main conclusions from the analyses. First, the average consumer is willing to pay more than JPY 2000 (US $20) to increase mobile service portability. Second, the average consumer's willingness to pay corresponds to JPY 100–200 (US $1–2) per song for securing music download platforms. A dilemma exists in consumer preferences for service portability in Japan's mobile phone market, namely the choice between free mobile service portability and convenient music download platforms.     

Drivers of technology adoption — the case of nanomaterials in building construction

With the building and construction sector contributing significantly to global greenhouse gas emissions, there is great demand for resource- and energy-efficient construction materials. Manufactured nanotechnology products (MNPs) are expected to realize resource and energy efficiency through performance improvements in the strength, lightness and insulating properties of construction materials. However, the actual adoption of MNPs has lagged. This article examines how the construction sector in the United States assesses MNPs for adoption. Through patent analysis and interviews, we gauge the supply of MNPs and identify actors' roles in technology adoption. Results indicate that awareness of MNPs is more extensive than anticipated. Yet, MNP adoption is limited by a multi-component technology assessment process focused primarily on the technology’s applicability to project-based outcomes. We conclude that barriers to MNP adoption can be overcome through intermediary activities such as product certification, comprehensive technology assessments, and “real-world” demonstrations.     

Performance comparison of two diffusion models in a saturated mobile phone market

This research examines a performance comparison of the Lotka–Volterra (LV) and extended Bass models in the saturated mobile phone market of the Republic of Korea. A three species LV model is developed and applied to Korean mobile phone service providers in terms of competitive impact. Fitting the historical data of the Korean mobile communication service market, the results show that the goodness of fit of the three species LV model in the case of competition among three companies is better than that of the extended Bass model. The advantages and disadvantages of the two models are discussed based on the results of empirical tests.     

The future of the mobile phone business

One of the fastest growing technologies of our times is that of mobile phones. In this article we use the assumption that the diffusion of mobile technology, as measured by the number of active mobile accounts, follows the well known S-curve of natural growth in competition systems. The accuracy of the logistic fit is tested against actual data for the whole world, Europe, China and the GSM system. Using the produced models predictions concerning the future of mobile business are deliberated.According to these models active mobile accounts around the globe are expected to grow from 1.7 billion in 2004 to approximately 2 billion in 2008, reaching a peak penetration of 29.2%. Growth barriers, apart from the age of the potential user, are also low income and extreme poverty. Europe, early adopter of mobile technology and leader in active mobile accounts against all other regions in the world, has apparently reached a peak with almost every European, apart from the very young or very old, using a mobile phone. The mobile market in China is anticipated to exceed 500 million active accounts and may increase even further depending on the economic and social reform that is currently under way in that part of the world. GSM will most likely remain the leading mobile technology in the future as it is today.The growth process for the world, Europe, and the GSM system is almost completed and during this stage instabilities may occur before the potential emergence of a new wave of growth.     

Estimating the geographic diffusion of the videocassette recorder market

The majority of studies concerning diffusion or product growth of consumer durables have treated the U.S. market as a whole and have applied the diffusion model on the assumption that the market exhibits a homogeneous response in its diffusion process. If the market is heterogeneous, however, an aggregate model entails a misspecification problem which could adversely affect the applicability and efficiency of the model. A modeling framework is developed for analyzing the diffusion process in a possibly heterogeneous market. Empirical analysis using data on the videocassette recorder (VCR) market reveals that the modeling framework captures to a fair extent heterogeneous diffusion processes across different regions in the U.S. market. Managerial implications are derived and discussed.     

Productivity change and its determinants among leading mobile operators in Europe

The European mobile telecommunications industry has seen increased competition and market saturation in recent years, so improving productivity will become crucially important for mobile operators in the near future. This study adopts a bootstrap Malmquist index approach to estimate productivity change among a sample of 23 of Europe's leading mobile operators over the 2008 to 2009 period. Using a second-stage regression, this article also analyses the determinants of productivity changes in terms of regulation, competition and ownership structure. The results show that mobile companies operating in countries that have recently joined the EU have a positive association with productivity change, in contrast to their counterparts in South-East Europe. Concerning market competition, the leading mobile operators that experience higher productivity changes operate in more concentrated markets. The results also indicate that international mobile operators perform better in terms of productivity change than their national equivalents. Finally, some of the implications of the findings for mobile operators’ management and policymakers are provided.     

The impact of competition,and economic globalization on the multinational diffusion of 3G mobile phones

To discover differences in technology diffusion of 3G mobile phones across countries, we investigate the impact of market factors, measured by competitive fractionalization, and economic globalization across countries using a multi-country diffusion model. We incorporate comprehensive socioeconomic and telecommunications data covering 35 geographically and economically diverse countries and control for covariates from literature. We used the Non-linear Mixed Modeling (NLMIXED) approach in SAS with pooled multi-country data to estimate a generalized Bass model taking into account unobserved heterogeneity in market saturation levels, a major source of inter-country differences. Our substantive findings are: the significance of the impact of competitive fractionalization on the likelihood of adoption and on the market potential; the significance of the impact of economic globalization on market growth. Our findings will aid international managers and regulators in their strategy and policy formulations. Finally, we demonstrate model validity by model fit and predictive accuracy.     

Competition with asymmetric regulation of mobile termination charges

The aim of this paper is to explore the effectiveness of asymmetric regulation, which allows a new mobile network operator to set higher termination rates than the incumbent operator. We assume that there are two market segments: one in which operators compete on equal terms, with a new technology, and the other in which the entrant is at a disadvantage since the technology it offers is inferior to the incumbent??s. Results show that asymmetric regulation can create favorable conditions that allow the entrant to strengthen its market positioning, and enhance consumer net utilities and social welfare. This highlights the importance of the degree of network asymmetry and the ways in which consumers are split between the two market segments. Lastly, we show that asymmetric regulation can create greater investment incentives for the entrant which could effectively enhance social welfare. These findings can provide useful insights for regulatory policy.     

国家利益视角下自然人流动政策选择——基于probit模型的实证研究

自然人流动为近年来各国发展服务贸易所关注.虽然研究表明,自然人流动自由化可以促进世界经济增长,缓解发达国家劳动力短缺压力,实际中却存在发达国家限制外国自然人流入的高壁垒政策的矛盾现象,而未有研究对此现象加以解释.从国家利益的视角出发,利用probit模型,在澳大利亚生产率委员会研究小组对自然人流动壁垒测度结果的基础上,对一国自然人流动壁垒政策选择的影响因素进行了实证分析,指出一国自然人流动壁垒政策的选择不仅受经济因素的影响,更受到非经济因素的作用,并对中国自然人流动给出政策建议.     

Assessing market power in the U.S. commercial banking industry under deregulation

This study attempts to investigate market power in the U.S. commercial banking industry since the U.S. government began to deregulate the banking sector in the early 1990s using the static Bresnahan–Lau model (SBLM) and dynamic Bresnahan–Lau model with error corrections (DBLEC). In particular, panel unit root and panel cointegration techniques are utilized to examine the dynamic model. The empirical results of the SBLM show that the banking industry is highly competitive. The empirical results of DBLEC also suggest that the commercial banking industry is close to being perfectly competitive in the short run. By contrast, the adjustment speeds of the supply and demand sides towards the long-run equilibrium are quite slow in that market, which implies that the U.S. commercial banks enjoy a certain degree of long-run market power.     

Market concentration and competition in OECD mobile telecommunications markets

This study analyses the progress of market concentration in OECD member states’ mobile telecommunications markets and evaluates the relationship between market concentration and performance. Using annual panel data from 24 OECD member states for the 1998–2011 period, the study estimates regression equations for market concentration, mobile prices and profits. The empirical results indicate that the more concentrated the mobile market, the higher the prices and profits, providing support for the market power hypothesis. If this hypothesis holds, then market concentration can be a useful indicator of market performance. On the other hand, the applicability of the hypothesis is unclear for the second half of the sample period. The results provide evidence that regulatory policies influence the structure and performance of mobile markets.     

Antitrust Enforcement and Non-Enforcement as a Barrier to Import in the Japanese Automobile Industry

Foreign automobile manufacturers long have found it difficult to compete in the Japanese automobile market. For decades, governmentally imposed restraints prevented foreign manufacturers from gaining a foothold in the Japanese market. In recent decades, these governmental restrictions have been replaced by private restraints which create equally formidable barriers to entry. Many private restraints persist despite repeated informal investigations and administrative guidance by the Japan Fair trade Commission (JFTC). The endurance of these private restraints raises the question of what mechanisms may be available to make the Japanese automobile market more contestable. While vigorous and transparent enforcement of Japan's Antimonopoly Law by the JFTC is the preferred mechanism, other mechanisms for alleviating these private restraints include the extraterritorial enforcement of U.S. antitrust laws by U.S. antitrust enforcement authorities, mediation by the OECD or the enforcement of an international competition code in an international forum.     

中美白糖期货市场价格发现功能的比较研究——基于2006—2008年的时间序列数据

本文运用协整分析、Granger因果检验、误差修正模型、信息共享模型、方差分解模型和脉冲响应函数,对2006—2008年中美两国白糖期现货市场价格之间的长短期变动关系进行了计量分析与横向对比。研究发现,我国白糖期货市场价格发现功能已初步显现,但我国白糖期货市场中期货价格对现货价格的引导作用与美国的成熟市场还存在较大差距,我国白糖期货市场价格发现功能的发挥水平还有待提高。