浅谈假按揭的过去、现在、与未来

现在国家对房地产过热、房价过高的现象进行了大力的整治,通过政策的组合拳,全面打压房地产,而假按揭的现象势必加剧。本文通过浅析假按揭的历史,现在的情况,与未来的防范,增强购房者对假按揭的认识及风险防范。     

借鉴国外经验应对信息制度缺失下的假按揭

假按揭是房地产开发商利用虚假的购房合同和消费者基本情况等材料。骗取银行信用并非法取得银行按揭贷款的行为,近年已经成为房地产行业的常态现象,成为个人住房贷款最直接、最主要的风险源头。本文揭示了我国假按揭的危害,分析了诱发的原因,并在借鉴国外相关经验的基础上,针对我国房地产行业发展的特点．提出完善法律制度、采取有效措施防范假按揭发生的建议。     

香港住房按揭业务概况及对商业银行的启示

全面介绍了香港房地产的发展历史,供房体系的构成,住房按揭市场状况和香港银行住房按揭业务的经营特色；同时,结合内地房地产市场特点和商业银行的现状,提出了有益的借鉴建议和应对措施。     

中国房地产按揭市场的现状及其对策

本文在分析我国房地产按揭市场现状和特征的基础上．对房地产按揭市场的健康发展提出了相应政策建议。     

我国个人住房按揭贷款业务的制度缺陷

从目前房地产市场的发展状况来看,房价持续走高和银行住房贷款增长过快的现象仍然严重。本文认为,我国以按揭房产的市场交易价格为基础确定按揭贷款的价值是我国个人住房按揭贷款政策存在的重大制度缺陷,也是导致我国房地产市场过热、价格高企的根本原因,本文建议,在我国房地产市场发展的现阶段,对按揭房产的价值评估应该以成本估价法作为按揭房产价值评估的基本方法,同时参照收益现值法和市场比较法的评估结果,综合考评不同评估方法下按揭房产的评估价值,互相参考验证,取较低者作为发放按揭贷款的价值依据。     

房地产按揭权法律性质探析

在分析按揭、房地产按揭涵义的基础上，探讨房地产按揭关系中产生的按揭权的法律性质及其与权利质押、抵押权的区别。     

对拓展城区个人住房按揭贷款业务的调查与思考

随着中国东盟博览会的永久落户南宁及南宁市城区规划调整和扩容,南宁市的房地产业迎来了历史性的发展机遇,近几年,南宁市房地产投资和房地产开发量、开发规模一直保持高位发展势头,房地产信贷业务成为南宁城区各家商业银行业务拓展的重要领域,个人住房按揭业务随之呈现方兴未艾之势。作为坐落在南宁市的农业银行的农业银行区分行营业部,为进一步做大做强房地产信贷业务,奔走在城市高楼广厦之间,在取得了对南宁城区房地产项目较广泛地介入的同时,促进了个人住房按揭业务的发展。但是,个人住房     

个人住房按揭贷款业务存在的风险及其防范

个人住房按揭贷款的迅速发展有力地推动了房地产销售和国内消费市场的繁荣。但与此同时，主客观原因导致的经济行为不规范使个人住房按揭贷款业务形成了一定的风险。如何切实规范对个人住房按揭贷款的业务管理，有效防范风险，对个人住房按揭贷款业务良性、健康、可持续发展，进而促进房地产业和谐健康发展具有十分重要的意义。     

建立网络化监控体系是银行防范房地产金融风险的关键

房地产金融风险与房地产风险具有高度关联性。而房地产风险呈现出多层次、多元化的特点。银行通过建立扁平网络化监控体系对房地产行业、个人按揭、开发商进行全面监控，是防范房地产金融风险的关键。     

“假按揭”的风险及其防范

近年来，个人住房按揭贷款呈现强劲增长势头，为商业银行带来了可观的经济效益。但“假按揭”问题也日趋显现。给商业银行的信贷资金安全造成严重威胁，也对房地产行业和社会经济发展带来极大危害。     

试论房价波动对商业银行资产的影响

基于次贷危机的启示,本文构建了在不同的金融发展程度下房地产价格波动对商业银行资产影响的理论模型,并在此基础上对中国的现状进行分析,指出当前对中国的影响主要集中于商业银行基于负债业务发放的贷款领域。进一步地,利用向量自回归模型(VAR)及冲击响应函数对中国房地产价格波动对商业银行贷款的影响进行了实证检验。研究表明:金融创新改变了房地产价格波动对商业银行资产的影响模式;中国房价波动对商业银行资产的影响主要集中在源于银行负债发放的贷款领域,但总体影响有限;中国应加快发展银行资产证券化业务,谨慎发展信用衍生产品。     

运用抵押率降低贷款行业风险

恰当地管理贷款行业中存在的风险至关重要。长期以来,放贷人借助首付准则和抵押贷款保险来降低风险敞口。本文讨论了抵押贷款行业中风险管理的各种方法,着重讨论了欧美的情况。     

Renegotiation in the Common Law Mortgage and the Impact of Equitable Redemption

This paper seeks to fill a gap in the real estate finance literature by linking the well-known history of the Anglo–American mortgage recorded by legal scholars with the recent literature on security design and incomplete contracting in order to explain and evaluate several unique features of the mortgage. In particular, we investigate how a conditional transfer of ownership to a lender and the institution called the equity of redemption affect mortgage renegotiation and therefore the value of mortgaged real estate. Given the governance of the common law mortgage, we show that a mortgagor may not be able to renegotiate his mortgage debt in order delay repayment when faced with a re-investment opportunity during the life of the mortgage. The failure to optimally renegotiate the mortgage does not necessarily result in foreclosure but may result in underinvestment. Therefore, an additional period of time between default and foreclosure, known as a period of equitable redemption, may allow the mortgagor to accrue sufficient cash flow to not only avoid foreclosure but to mitigate underinvestment in non-default states. Since this extra period of time may not be achievable ex post due to a hold-up problem, its inclusion ex ante may be welfare improving.     

中国制造业与房地产业协调发展的测度与判断

产业间的良性互动是经济高质量发展的一个重要体现。本文基于2004-2016年我国各省份29个细分制造业行业与房地产业的数据,采用耦合评价模型,对我国制造业与房地产业协调发展的变化情况进行了测度。同时,本文尝试从内在机制上找出两产业的最佳耦合度,并实证分析了两产业耦合协调度对全要素生产率和经济增长率的影响。进一步,本文运用渐进式双重差分法分析了房地产限购政策这一外部冲击对两产业耦合度的影响。测度结果表明,两产业的互动程度不断增强,由2004年的失调发展上升到2016年的良好协调发展;中西部地区制造业与房地产业的耦合协调度略高于东部地区;东中西部地区房地产业的总体发展水平均于2012年前后超过制造业。计量结果显示,东部地区制造业与房地产业协调发展的过程中会产生一些负面的经济影响,这能从东部地区过热的房地产市场中找到原因;对于房地产过度发展地区而言,限购政策改善了地区内制造业与房地产业的耦合度。     

The ins and outs of mortgage debt during the housing boom and bust

From 1999 to 2013, U.S. mortgage debt doubled before contracting sharply. I estimate mortgage inflows and outflows that shed light on the sources of volatility. During the boom, inflows from real estate investors tripled, far outpacing other segments such as first-time homebuyers. During the bust, a collapse in inflows keyed the debt decline, while an expansion of outflows due to defaults played a more minor role. Inflow declines partly reflect a dramatic falloff in first-time homebuying, especially for low credit score individuals. Further analysis helps support the notion that the differential decline by credit score reflects markedly tightened credit supply.     

Home mortgage debt financing of nonhousing investments

Home mortgage debt is decomposed into a component that represents debt demand, derived from housing demand and a residual excess demand. This excess demand derives principally from the demand for nonhousing assets. An empirical model of the determinants of the demand for excess debt is specified and estimated using databases from the 1983 and 1986 Surveys of Consumer Finance. The estimations focus on evidence of linkages between debt demand and household preferences for illiquid risky assets, and on the substitutability of personal debt for mortgage debt. Positive linkages are found between household choices of investments in vacation homes, investment real estate, and closely held business and the demand for excess debt. However, personal debt and mortgage debt appear to have largely separate financing roles.     

人民币汇率变动对地产指数影响的实证分析

本文采用VAR模型分析人民币汇率与地产指数的内在相互关系,结果显示,汇率变动对地产行业指数波动有一定的滞后影响,但是所表现的脉冲响应波幅较窄;地产行业指数的预测误差方差被汇率变动解释的比例一般较小;房地产作为经济的一个部门具有较强的外生性。     

Strategic default,workout, and commercial mortgage valuation

This paper extends existing equilibrium commercial mortgage pricing models by endogenizing negotiated workout into the usual noncooperative lending game. Workout is a feasible subgame strategy for the lender to play whenever foreclosure transaction costs exist for either party to a loan transaction. In particular, negotiated workout solutions Pareto dominate the foreclosure alternative when default occurs. To obtain our results, we embed a cooperative bargaining game within a noncooperative mortgage loan/default game. We also address the valuation wedge problem that occurs when foreclosure transaction costs are introduced. Through the notion of replacement game equilibrium, we find symmetric mortgage pricing solutions that eliminate the valuation wedge and thus suggest that lending will occur in commercial real estate mortgage markets even when foreclosure transaction costs exist.     

Wimp or tough guy: Sequential default risk and signaling with mortgages

When analyzing what to do with a currently defaulted loan, the lender must consider the impact of his foreclosure versus workout decision on the expected payoff of subsequent loans as well as on the payoff of the current loan. This is because borrowers with future loan payoff dates can observe the lender's actions and update prior information regarding the lender's toughness or wimpiness when dealing with defaulted loans. In this paper we consider the strategic interaction between a lender and multiple borrowers, where borrowers have distinct, sequentially maturing mortgage loans and where the lender has private information regarding the magnitude of his foreclosure costs. We find that a variety of strategic outcomes can occur that explain the co-existence of workout and foreclosure in the mortgage marketplace. In general, the lender's workout/foreclosure response depends on the cost of bluffing (e.g., foreclosing when workout is cheaper) versus the value of reducing expected defaults and workout concession losses on future loans (e.g., imperfect foreclosure cost information leads future borrowers to payoff the mortgage when default would have been optimal under perfect information). Given recently revised expectations regarding the depth of the real estate recession, our results may explain the move by many lenders away from granting workout concessions and toward taking a harder line when dealing with defaulting borrowers.     

房地产信托业发展综述及展望

随着房地产调控的逐渐深入,楼市交易冷淡,造成了房地产企业资金回笼不畅,加之银行信贷紧缩,使其开始采取房地产信托的方式来融资,这直接导致了房地产信托业的繁荣。但繁荣的背后,其兑付风险逐渐显现并加大。本文分析了房地产信托发展的利与弊以及其行业内部累积的风险,同时提出防范和化解风险的对策,最后提出了房地产信托投资基金REITs是房地产信托的未来发展方向。