Endogenous phase switch in Baumol's service paradox model

This paper develops a two-sector model that considers Baumol's service paradox. The paper simultaneously incorporates two ideas about technological progress in the model: (1) the consumption of services contributes to human capital accumulation and (2) the production of manufacturing leads to technological progress due to learning-by-doing. Accordingly, productivity growth in both services and manufacturing is endogenously determined. We show that initially, a shift in the employment share toward the services sector decreases the per capita real GDP growth rate, but at some point in time, the shift begins to increase the growth rate. Therefore, we observe an endogenous phase switch from a phase where the employment shift toward services depresses the economy to another where the employment shift promotes the economy.     

The relative weight of manufacturing and services in Europe: An innovation perspective

This paper uses an innovation-based taxonomy of both manufacturing and service industries to assess the role of the process of structural change of the last 25 years on the rate of productivity growth in Europe, US and Japan. The empirical analysis exploits the shift-share methodology for a decomposition of aggregate labor productivity growth. A modified version is applied, that allows to interpret whether employment has shifted to higher or lower productivity sectors. The results are discussed in light of the role that the different industries play according to the innovation-based taxonomy.     

The curse of natural resources: An empirical investigation of U.S. counties

Research consistently shows that natural resource dependence tends to be associated with lower economic growth. However, the studies typically focus on differences across nations or states. We fill a gap in the literature by testing the so-called resource curse at a more disaggregated county level. Our results show clear evidence that resource-dependent counties exhibit more anemic economic growth, even after controlling for state-specific effects, socio-demographic differences, initial income, and spatial correlation. A case study analysis of Maine and Wyoming, and the counties within, highlight the growth effects of specializing in natural resource extraction.     

促进我国就业增长的行业特征研究——来自2002-2007年投入产出表的证据

本文以三次经济普查中的行业从业人员数据为基础,用2002、2005和2007年的投入产出表分析研究我国42个行业的就业弹性、就业乘数,并分解出各因素对2002-2007年期间就业增长的贡献。结果表明:稳定就业以传统制造业和社会服务业为基础,扩大就业以高新技术制造业和新兴服务业为主;资源垄断性行业劳动成本上升较快,提高劳动收入不利于就业,而传统服务业中的低工资行业提高劳动收入不会减少就业;加快资源性垄断行业和社会性服务业的改革,加强制造业和服务业之间的产业关联,扩大居民消费,特别是扩大农村居民消费,对促进就业增长有积极作用。     

GROWTH AND FAILURE OF MANUFACTURING ESTABLISHMENTS IN AUSTRALIA*

This study examines the determinants of failure and employment growth for manufacturing establishments in Australia between 1984 and 1985. For the sample of all establishments which operated in 1984, initial size of establishment is found to be inversely related to the probability of establishment failure and positively related to the establishment-level rate of employment growth. However, excluding establishments which ceased operation between 1984 and 1985, no relation exists between size of establishment and employment growth. These findings indicate the importance of sample selection for studies of the determinants of establishment-level employment growth. Industry sector does not appear to have a strong effect on failure or on employment growth of establishments.     

Can total factor productivity explain value added growth in services?

This paper examines the factors responsible for generating the services led growth witnessed in the Indian economy during 1980–2005. A sectoral growth accounting exercise shows that total factor productivity (TFP) growth was the fastest for services; moreover this TFP increase was significant in accounting for service sector value added growth. A growth model with agriculture, industry and services as three principal sectors is calibrated to Indian data using sectoral TFP growth rates. The baseline model performs well in accounting for the evolution of value added shares and their growth rates, but is unable to capture sectoral employment share trends. The performance of the model with respect to value added shares improves when the post 1991 increase in service sector TFP growth following the inception of market-based liberalization reforms is accounted for. A modified version of the model with public capital can better track trends in sectoral employment shares.     

The chosen fortunate in the urbanization process in China? Evidence from a geographic regression discontinuity study

After decades of delayed urbanization, since 1998, China has implemented the “county‐to‐district” policy to promote urbanization and stimulate regional economic development. This policy was designed to expand the urban area of large cities by merging counties (rural areas) with nearby cities (urban areas). Intuitively, these regions are the “chosen fortunate” since they are the privileged beneficiaries of this policy experiment. However, at the time of writing (2018), recent studies have been inconsistent regarding this issue, and several studies have revealed that this policy has impeded regional growth. Therefore, the true effect of this policy must be carefully examined. Using grid‐level nighttime light data and a border‐based regression discontinuity design framework, we find that the average effect of the “county‐to‐district” policy on nighttime light growth is significant and positive, and this result also coincides with the increase of entry and decrease of exit of manufacturing enterprises, and the increase of the county‐level manufacturing employment. However, the policy effect on nighttime light turns to be negative in the long run, implying that short‐term economic growth may outweigh the long‐term economic growth potential. A further investigation of the underlying mechanism indicates that industrial enterprises in the experimental policy area do not perform better in terms of total factor productivity (TFP) and profit margin than their counterparts. Moreover, this policy aggravates the polarization between central and border areas.     

On the Limits of the Post-Industrial Society Structural Change and Service Sector Employment in Spain

The purpose of this paper is to examine the growth and the structure of employment in the service sector in the Spanish Economy from 1958 to 1989 and to draw comparisons with the trends exhibited by other European countries. In contrast to the explanation offered by the theory of stages, which assumes that growth in services is associated with the pattern of final demand, this research argues that, since the middle of the 1970s, the growth of market service employment is due to an increase in intermediate demand of services. In order to demonstrate this, an intersectoral analysis is applied to input output data which was homogenised for this research. This methodological approach enables employment in the service sector to be connected to the other sectors. Rejecting the idea that services are replacing manufacturing as the new engine of growth, the results show an increased dependence on market services by industrial production. The final part of the paper presents explanations for this trend.     

Manufacturing growth and local employment multipliers in China

We study the impact of employment growth in manufacturing on job creation in the non-tradable sector for prefecture-level cities in China. Using the 2000 and 2010 Censuses of Population, we apply the shift-share approach to isolate the exogenous change of employment growth in manufacturing. For every hundred new manufacturing jobs, we find that 34 additional jobs are created in the non-tradable sector. We also show that the effect is heterogeneous along a number of dimensions. More specifically, one new job in high-technology manufacturing creates more jobs in the non-tradable sector while low-technology manufacturing employment growth has no significant multiplier effect. Among the non-tradable industries, the multiplier is the largest for wholesale, retail, and catering. Finally, the effect is also geographically heterogeneous, with the multiplier being greater for inland regions.     

A smooth coefficient quantile regression approach to the social capital–economic growth nexus

This analysis assesses the role of social capital in generating heterogeneity in growth processes across U.S. counties by estimating growth regressions, using the novel semiparametric smooth coefficient quantile regression method in which parameters are unspecified functions of a measure of social capital. The results indicate substantial differences across the quantiles of economic growth in the profile shapes of the coefficient estimates over the level of social capital. Moreover, the coefficient function estimates are highly nonlinear over the level of social capital, providing evidence that the growth process that links initial income, education attainment, ethnic diversity, inequality, population density, and government activity to growth varies with social capital in a nonlinear way.     

Revisiting Occupational Crowding in the United States: A Preliminary Study

In her study of occupational segregation in the United States using the 1960 Census, Barbara R. Bergmann found black males with low levels of education more concentrated in low-skill service and laborer occupations than white males and virtually excluded from higher status occupations. Utilizing a crowding index which, similar to Bergmann's, controls for the education level of the worker, this paper presents an analysis of the employment patterns of black males and females in fifty-nine occupations in Wayne County (Detroit, Michigan) and Allegheny County (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania) in 1990. Within blue-collar and service employment, males are under-represented in the craft occupations and concentrated in low-skill operative, laborer, and service occupations. Females are under-represented in both craft and operative occupations and concentrated in low-skill service occupations. Within white-collar employment, both males and females are largely excluded from high-skill private sector managerial occupations. Black representation in public sector managerial and private sector professional occupations is better in Detroit than Pittsburgh. The decline in manufacturing employment in both counties has left black males with fewer occupational options and black females over-represented in low status clerical and service occupations.     

A WARM EMBRACE OR THE COLD SHOULDER? WAGE AND EMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES IN ETHNIC ENCLAVES

This paper examines how immigrant enclaves influence labor market outcomes. We examine the effect of variation in ethnic concentration across counties and county subdivisions on both immigrant earnings and employment using the non‐public use, 1‐in‐6 sample of the 2000 U.S. Census. We find that there is heterogeneity in enclave impacts by ethnic group and skill composition of the enclave. While some groups tend to suffer from lower wages and employment propensities when residing in areas with larger ethnic concentrations, others have higher wages and improved employment opportunities in enclaves. (JEL J61, J15, R23)     

Some New Approaches to Evolutionary Economics

This paper examines the relationship between energy production and economic growth in New Mexico using cross section data for the state's 33 counties in Census years 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000. The central question is whether or not New Mexico's counties are subject to the resource curse, a phenomenon documented frequently in the literature. Most empirical studies of the resource curse hypothesis have used national or state level data and a broad definition of natural resources. In contrast, this analysis uses county level data with a focus on oil and gas extraction. The estimated models suggest that oil and gas extraction in New Mexico counties has had a small but positive effect on income, employment and population. Similar results were obtained when the model was estimated for 925 counties in 13 energy producing states for the year 2000.     

Adoption Of Advanced Manufacturing Technology And Firm Performance In The Netherlands

This paper presents characteristics of firms that employ advanced manufacturing technology (AMT), explores the pattern of adoption of such technology, and traces the effects of adoption on the evolution of employment and productivity. The study uses linked firm-level data on production, factor inputs and on advanced manufacturing technology. It is found that the percentage of firms that employ advanced technology increases with higher labor productivity, higher export-sales ratios, and especially larger firm sire. Corrected for interactions, however, only initial size and the initial capital-labor ratio aid in predicting adoption of AMT. Conditional on adoption of AMT it is seen that intensity of advanced technology inputs decrease with firm sire and with labar productivity. Finally, firms which employed AMT in 1992 show higher average growth rates of (toral factor) productivity and employment between 1985 and 1991.     

The shift to services employment: A review of the literature

This paper provides an overview of literature on the employment shift towards services. It follows the three dimensions of structural change: inter-industry productivity differences, the inter-industry division of labor (outsourcing), and shifts in final demand. It concludes that the third dimension gained importance over the last decades although differential productivity growth continued to contribute to the rise of service employment as well. Outsourcing of service tasks from manufacturing industries increased but cannot explain much of the rise in service-industry employment over time. The shift to services is not just a price effect nor is it mainly the effect of the outsourcing of service activities from manufacturing industries. The shift to services is real.     

The rise of service employment and its impact on aggregate productivity growth

This paper investigates how the employment shift from manufacturing toward service sectors affects the rate of economic growth when services play their role both in intermediate and in final demand. Our model includes as a special case both Baumol’s [Baumol, W.J., 1967. Macroeconomics of unbalanced growth: the anatomy of urban crisis. American Economic Review 57 (3), 415–426] model, in which services are produced only for final consumption, and Oulton’s [Oulton, N., 2001. Must the growth rate decline? Baumol’s unbalanced growth revisited. Oxford Economic Papers 53 (4), 605–627] model, in which services are entirely devoted to intermediate demand. We show that, given that the growth rate of productivity in the service sector is lower than that in the manufacturing sector, both the employment share in manufacturing and the rate of economic growth will decline in the long run irrespective of the size of the elasticity of substitution between labor and service input.     

Poverty reduction without economic growth? : Explaining Brazil's poverty dynamics, 1985-2004

Brazil's slow pace of poverty reduction between the mid-1980s and the mid-2000s reflects both low growth and a low growth elasticity of poverty reduction. Using GDP data disaggregated by state and sector for a twenty-year period, this paper finds considerable variation in the poverty-reducing effectiveness of growth—across sectors, across space, and over time. Growth in the services sector was substantially more poverty-reducing than was growth in either agriculture or industry. Growth in industry had different effects on poverty across different states and its impact varied with initial conditions related to human development and worker empowerment. But because there was so little of it, economic growth actually played a relatively small role in accounting for Brazil's poverty reduction between 1985 and 2004. The taming of hyperinflation (in 1994) and a substantial expansion in social security and social assistance transfers, in large part mandated by the 1988 Constitution, accounted for the bulk of the overall reduction in poverty.     

Growth of business services: A supply‐side hypothesis

This paper aims to explain why and how the service sector may grow faster than manufacturing. It develops a two‐sector, closed‐economy model, having a manufacturing sector and a service sector. Accumulation of human capital serves as the basis of growth. The analysis focuses on business services, while household services are also considered. It is argued that differences in returns to scale between the two sectors and employment frictions in manufacturing explain why the growth rate of the service sector may be higher. The model also features that within the service sector the business services sub‐sector may grow faster than household services.     

县域视角下的贫困、金融发展与经济增长*——基于系统GMM方法的再检验

本文以内生区域金融发展理论为基础构建动态面板模型,同时引入贫困因素进一步识别区域金融与经济的非线性关系,将实证对象细化到县域层面,运用系统GMM方法检验贫困与非贫困县域金融对经济增长影响的差异。本文研究发现,信贷层面上的金融发展对经济增长的推动效应普遍存在,而储蓄层面金融发展的效应则存在地区差异,非贫困县的储蓄与经济无关,贫困县的储蓄与经济增长负相关。因此本文指出,区域信贷配给和区域信贷创造理论更适于解释贫困地区的金融发展问题,贫困县域储蓄的负效应是本地储蓄外流和转化效率低下的结果,与我国银行业跨     

A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF PRODUCTIVITY IN SELECTED SERVICE INDUSTRIES IN THE UNITED STATES, 1939–1963

This paper examines differentials in output, employment and productivity across seventeen service industries in the United States from 1939 to 1963. Included are 9 retail trades and 8 services mostly from the personal service group. The industries chosen were those for which it was possible to obtain from available data reasonably comparable measures of output and input for selected years since 1939. Also, they are industries for which it is possible to calculate a measure of real output that is not based on labor input.
Sixteen of the industries show positive rates of change of real output per man. Thus there appears to be no basis for assuming that productivity cannot or does not increase in industries providing services. However, the rate of increase for the group as a whole was not as rapid as in manufacturing or in goods production as a whole.
The data for the seventeen industries give strong support to the hypothesis of a positive correlation between industry rates of growth and rates of change of productivity. The correlations are of the same order of magnitude as those found by other investigators in studies of manufacturing industries.
The coefficient of correlation between growth of output per man and growth of output is .93; between growth of output per man and growth of employment it is .54 for 1939–1963. The comparable coefficients for the 1948–1963 period are .70 and .13.
The results also parallel those reported for manufacturing in one other respect, namely, the absence of any correlation between changes in output per man and changes in compensation per man.
The paper concludes with a discussion of the problems encountered in measuring changes in real output in these industries and presents some alternative estimates based on different concepts and different sources.