The Phillips curve,parameter instability and the Lucas critique

Empirical estimation of Phillips curve relationships typically indicates the presence of parameter instability. This is argued to be due to the fact that the parameters of these equations are reduced form rather than structural parameters. Estimation of a Phillips curve model by methods which allow for time-varying parameters permits investigation of the nature and timing of the structural breaks which generate instability. This paper estimates such a model by the Kalman filter using quarterly data over the period 1972.4 to 1993.3. We find evidence of a gradual decline in the private sector's assessment of the steady-state inflation rate during the 1980s, but little evidence of the sort of dramatic regime shift predicted by some of the more extreme rational expectations models.     

'Interrelated prices' and Sraffa's critique of partial equilibrium

The early Marshallian literature recognized that, in most significant cases, long-period equilibrium analysis must consider families of interdependent markets which are in direct relation with each other. This perspective, which is different from both standard partial equilibrium and general equilibrium analysis, was developed mainly by two Italian authors, Maffeo Pantaleoni (1857–1924) and Marco Fanno (1878–1964). This paper is aimed at showing that this ‘interrelated prices’ literature has some points of contact with Piero Sraffa's critique of partial equilibrium analysis. It is argued that Sraffa places the case of a Marshallian decreasing returns industry in a context (rivalry for the use of a common factor in fixed supply) which was familiar to Pantaleoni-Fanno: both maintain that the markets involved are interdependent, even though they evaluate differently the possibility of a sensible equilibrium analysis.     

On the empirical relevance of the Lucas critique: the case of euro area money demand

This paper examines the relevance of the Lucas critique for euro area money demand. Based on the money in the utility function approach, a vector error correction model is specified to investigate the relationship between money and inflation in times of policy shifts. A well defined equation for money demand is obtained. The results indicate that the evolution of M3 is still in line with money demand. In the long run, inflation is affected by asset prices and detrended output. Our results show that the Lucas critique can be refuted in case of euro area money demand for the period of quantitative easing. Thus, the estimated money demand equation provides reliable information for the conduct of future monetary policy.     

Rawls,rules and objectives: A critique of the two principles of justice

John Rawls has made two large claims for the two principles of justice: that they are what everyman would choose behind the veil of ignorance as the foundation for laws and institutions, and that they are the rock bottom requirement for the stability of political liberalism. I argue here that these claims are altogether unsubstantiated. The two principles are more like a social welfare function than like what we ordinary think of as justice. They are a false social welfare function in the sense that everyman would not choose them behind the veil of ignorance. Their connection with the stability of liberal democratic government is tenuous at best. Stability is dependent on the entire corpus of rules by which a society is guided, rules that are no more identifiable behind the veil of ignorance than when the veil is lifted. There no basis for supposing that the appropriate rules can be derived from the two principles of justice, and there is some question as to whether they can be derived from any well-specified social welfare function. What remains valid in the two principles was recognized long before the two principles were enunciated. The exaggeration of common ideas in the two principles is not enlightening.     

EMU and the Lucas Critique

This paper attempts to provide a systematic review of the implications of EMU for the Lucas Critique. It asks how well cointegrating vector autoregressions estimated on pre-Euro data forecast post-Euro data, relative to their pre-Euro standard error. This is done for the Euro area as a whole, 3 countries that joined and 3 European countries that did not join. If the Lucas Critique is important, the forecasts should be much worse, because the policy change, EMU which changed exchange rate and interest rate determination processes, should have changed the parameters of the estimated models. The models appear to forecast very well and EMU does not appear to have induced structural change, indicating that the Lucas Critique does not seem to be important in this case.     

伊曲康唑对合用药物药代动力学的影响机制初探

目的探讨伊曲康唑对合用药物药代动力学的影响机制,为临床上安全合理地利用合成药物提供依据。方法利用健康成人的肝细胞微粒体,将其分为加入不同浓度伊曲康唑的10个小组,浓度梯度为0.0、0.4、0.8、1.6、3.2μg/ml,每组做5个平行组,之后在其中五组加入肝细胞微粒体细胞色素的P450的同功酶1A2的底物非那西丁,在另外五组中加入同工酶3A4的底物睾酮,测量不同伊曲康唑下的同功酶1A2和3A4的相对活性。结果各浓度伊曲康唑组对同功酶1A2作用效果无明显差异,各浓度伊曲康唑组对同功酶3A4的作用较明显,同功酶3A4的活性随着伊曲康唑的浓度增大而减小,其减小到本实验的最大活性一半时的伊曲康唑的浓度为0.7μg/ml。结论伊曲康唑对健康成年人肝细胞微粒体细胞色素酶同功酶1A2的活性无显著影响;但是它对同功酶3A4的活性有明显抑制作用,极大地影响了同功酶3A4对合用药物药代动力学的各种参数。     

Evolutionary stability of social norms in a socioeconomic equilibrium model

A hybrid of a model of economic equilibrium in two markets and a social game is formed. The link between the two is established through a social norm that conditions correct social behavior on economic variables and therefore distorts the economic equilibrium allocation. The initial endowment of an individual determines whether she gains from a social norm. The evolution of norms is examined in a dynamic model where norms are more likely to persist if they deliver higher utility to their believers. Also it is assumed that norms lose importance when they are disobeyed by their believers. Optimally coordinating norms are not necessarily evolutionarily stable, and a suboptimal norm can be the outcome of the evolutionary process.     

Lucas on involuntary unemployment

The aim of this paper is to examine critically Lucas' argumentsagainst Keynes's General Theory and in particular against Keynes'sconcept of involuntary unemployment. It comprises two main parts.In the first part of the paper, the author questions Lucas'sclaim that Keynes betrayed the equilibrium discipline by freeinghimself from the postulates of optimising behaviour and marketclearing. In the second part, Lucas’ three arguments againstthe involuntary unemployment concept are discussed—first,that there is no rationale for drawing a distinction betweentwo sorts of unemployment; second, that every economic outcomefeatures the voluntary and the involuntary jointly; and third,that alternatives to unemployment are always present.     

Some international evidence on the Lucas Supply Function

We provide empirical evidence on the Lucas Supply Function based on actual inflation surprises for 19 industrial economies. Our results show that the inflation surprise positively correlates with the output gap and that this relationship is negatively related to inflation variability.     

Asymmetric adjustment costs in simple general equilibrium models

This paper demonstrates that the introduction of asymmetric adjustment costs in a simple general equilibrium framework establishes a meaningful link between factor price determination and output determination, breaking the analytically convenient dichotomy of the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model. The possibility of trade between seemingly similar countries that differ in their adjustment technologies is visited.     

Correlated equilibrium and sunspot equilibrium

Summary We show by an example that the sunspot equilibria of a competitive economy are not equivalent to the correlated equilibria if sunspots generate transfers between (extrinsic) states of nature (through a contingent commodities market). Nevertheless, we prove that the sunspot equilibrium allocations of a standard overlapping generations economy coincide with the (strategic form) correlated equilibrium allocations of a natural market game mimicking the economy.     

Comment: Lucas on involuntary unemployment

Keynes distinguishes three concepts: voluntary, frictional and(Keynesian) involuntary unemployment. Frictional unemploymentis a Classical form of involuntary unemployment (not voluntary,as Lucas suggests), and reflects the Marshallian, rather thanWalrasian, treatment of time and equilibrium. Lucas contradictsboth Keynes and Pigou in asserting that there are always immediatevacancies for unskilled labour, and abstracts from the veryproblem that Keynes seeks to address. If voluntary unemploymentis re-defined appropriately, as De Vroey helpfully suggestselsewhere, the prefix ‘involuntary’ is dispensable,not because all unemployment is voluntary, as Lucas would haveit, but because it is all involuntary.     

An equilibrium analysis of information aggregation and fluctuations in markets with discrete decisions

This paper shows how the interaction between decentralized information gathering and discreteness of investment decisions at the individual level can generate random fluctuations in aggregate investment that involve occasionally large allocation errors. This interaction is illustrated in a model in which private information is costly to acquire and prices reveal information. The unique rational expectations equilibrium outcome of the model is shown to always be noisy and characterized by investment levels which may be high simply because uninformed investors are buying under the impression that the high price is a signal of good investment opportunities.     

Imports and TFP at the firm level: the role of absorptive capacity

This paper estimates the effect of the decision to import intermediate goods and capital equipment on Total Factor Productivity (TFP) at the firm level on a panel of Spanish firms (1991–2002). We use two alternative approaches. In the first, we estimate TFP and apply a diff‐in‐diff estimator with a control group constructed by propensity‐score matching. In the second, direct method, we estimate TFP with imported inputs as a state variable in one stage. Both approaches show that the effect of a firm's decision to source intermediates and capital equipment abroad on its TFP depends critically on its capacity to absorb technology, measured by the proportion of skilled labour.     

Competition and the location of overseas assembly

Abstract. How does international competition affect overseas outsourcing? To address this question, this paper studies production decisions in the U.S.'s overseas assembly program (OAP). In this setting, a number of regularities emerge. First, prior participation is highly correlated with current participation, which suggests that sunk costs influence outsourcing choices. Second, increases in own‐country costs and declines in competitor‐country costs reduce participation probabilities. In addition, these persistence and cost effects are much larger for outsourcing in developing countries. Finally, outsourcing responses appear to reflect differences in 'market thickness,’ as cost sensitivity generally rises with competitor presence.     

Using the Hawthorne effect to examine the gap between a doctor's best possible practice and actual performance

Many doctors in developing countries provide considerably lower quality care to their patients than they have been trained to provide. The gap between best possible practice and actual performance (often referred to as the know-do gap) is difficult to measure among doctors who differ in levels of training and experience and who face very different types of patients. We exploit the Hawthorne effect-in which doctors change their behavior when a researcher comes to observe their practices-to measure the gap between best and actual performance. We analyze this gap for a sample of doctors and also examine the impact of the organization for which doctors work on their performance. We find that some organizations succeed in motivating doctors to work at levels of performance that are close to their best possible practice. This paper adds to recent evidence that motivation can be as important to health care quality as training and knowledge.     

Multinationals and the creation of Chinese trade linkages

Abstract.  This paper studies the relationship between multinational firm proximity and the formation of new export connections by private Chinese exporters between 1997 and 2003. The results indicate that growth in the presence of multinational firms is positively associated with the formation of new trade by local Chinese firms. Further exploration suggests that information spillovers may drive this result, as the positive association due to own-industry multinational presence is particularly strong in contexts where information improvements may be the most helpful. Thus, it appears that a growing presence of multinational firms may enhance the export capabilities of local domestic firms.     

A critique of the new comparative economics

We examine the “new comparative economics” as proposed by Djankov et al. (2003) and their use of the concept of an institutional possibilities frontier. While we agree with their general argument that one must consider a variety of institutions and their respective social costs, including legal systems and cultural characteristics, when comparing the performance of different economic systems, we find various complications and difficulties with the framework they propose. We propose that a broader study of clusters of institutions and such newly emerging forms as the new traditional economy may be better suited as ways to approach the study of comparative economics in the era after the breakdown of the old comparison of market capitalism and command socialism that came to an end with the breakup of the Soviet Union.

Termination of dynamic contracts in an equilibrium labor market model

In an equilibrium model of the labor market, workers and firms enter into dynamic contracts that can potentially last forever, but are subject to optimal terminations. Upon termination, the firm hires a new worker, and the worker who is terminated receives a termination contract from the firm and is then free to go back to the labor market to seek new employment opportunities and enter into new dynamic contracts. The model permits only two types of equilibrium terminations that resemble, respectively, the two kinds of labor market separations that are typically observed in practice: involuntary layoffs and voluntary retirements. The model allows for the simultaneous determination of a large set of important labor market variables including equilibrium unemployment and labor force participation. An algorithm is formulated for computing the model's equilibria. I then simulate the model to show quantitatively that the model is consistent with a set of important stylized facts of the labor market.