Dynamic analysis of stock return volatility in an integrated international capital market

This paper examines the dynamic behavior of the stock return volatility for Canada, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The evidence indicates that international stock return volatility is mainly influenced by the U.S. stock return volatility and the exchange rate volatility, supporting the international capital market integration hypothesis. There seems to be some correlation between stock return volatility and macroeconomic volatility, but the effect is relatively weaker. In addition to the economic fundamentals, the noise component is found to be time varying, confirming the AR(MA)CH specifications in the stock return models.     

Impact of liquidity on stock returns: an empirical investigation of the Tunisian stock market

This paper investigates the return–liquidity relationship on one Middle East and North Africa frontier market, the Tunisian Stock Exchange (TSE). The findings provide evidence that there is a significant and positive premium for companies with high price impact and low trading frequency. However, Tunisian investors appreciate more low spread stocks. We show, also, a non-linear relation between potential delays of execution and stock returns. In addition, we find that Tunisian investors require a premium to compensate past cumulative illiquidity risk (high price impact, low turnover and high potential delay of execution) over the prior three to 12 months and to compensate past cumulative spread over 12 months. We point out also that these effects are seasonal.     

Time-varying impacts of demand and supply oil shocks on correlations between crude oil prices and stock markets indices

This paper investigates the time-varying impacts of demand and supply oil shocks on correlations between changes in crude oil prices and stock markets returns. The findings, obtained by means of a DCC-GARCH from June 2006 to June 2016, indicate that demand shocks positively affected the correlations between crude oil prices and stock market returns from late 2007 to mid-2008, during the apex of the financial markets volatility; from early 2009 to mid-2013, during global economy recovery from the financial crisis; and after 2015, when uncertainties about the Chinese growth and the US economy upturning arose. The dynamic conditional correlation, obtained after the removal of demand shocks effects, presented an average value of 0.13 when all economy sectors were considered and of 0.03 when the energy sector returns were excluded from the stock index. These correlations, still positive on average, suggest that exogenous supply oil shocks had little impact on US mainly enterprises cash flows over the last 10 years. Exceptions are the periods from 2006 to financial crisis and from 2014 until April 2016, when significant and unpredicted changes in oil market happened, considerably affecting the value of the main US companies.     

Primacy in stock market participation: the effect of initial returns on market re-entry decisions

We examine whether initial returns influence investors’ decisions to return to the stock market following withdrawal. Using a survival analysis technique to estimate Finnish retail investors’ likelihood of stock market re-entry reveals that investors who experience lower initial returns are less likely to return, even after controlling for returns in the last month and average monthly returns for the duration of investing. This primacy effect is robust to accounting for endogeneity in investors’ exit decisions, and other behavioural biases such as recency and saliency of investment experience. Individual investors appear to be subject to primacy bias and tend to put a significant weight on initial experiences in re-entry decisions.     

The determination and international transmission of stock market volatility

This paper extends the literature on low-frequency analysis of the causes and transmission of stock market volatility. It uses end-monthly data on stock market returns, interest rates, exchange rates, inflation, and industrial production for five countries (Britain, France, Germany, Japan, and the US) from July 1973 to December 1994. Efficient portfolios of world, European, and Japanese/US equity are first constructed, the existence of multivariate cointegrating relationships between them is demonstrated, and the transmission of conditional volatility between them is described. The transmission of conditional volatility from world equity markets and national business cycle variables to national stock markets is then modeled. Among the main findings are: first, world equity market volatility is caused mostly by volatility in Japanese/US markets and transmitted to European markets, and second, changes in the volatility of inflation are associated with changes of the opposite sign in stock market volatility in all markets where a significant effect is found to exist. To the extent that the volatility of inflation is positively related to its level, this implies that low inflation tends to be associated with high stock market volatility.     

Macroeconomic determinants of stock market capitalization in an emerging market: fresh evidence from cointegration with unknown structural breaks

This article explores the macroeconomic determinants of stock market development in an emerging market (Pakistan) over the period of 1974–2010. We have applied Zivot–Andrews unit root test for integrating properties of the variables and the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing for cointegration. The direction of causality between the variables is investigated by applying the vector error-correction model Granger causality approach. Our results revealed that variables are cointegrated for long run relationship. Economic growth, inflation, financial development and investment increase stock market development, but trade openness decreases it. The causality analysis confirms that stock market development is a Granger cause of economic growth, inflation, financial development, investment and trade openness. This article indicates the importance of trade openness while formulating a comprehensive financial policy.     

传闻消息对我国上市公司股价影响的实证分析

本文通过有关我国上市公司的传闻消息对上市公司股价影响的实证分析,得出在消息公布日前2天以及后3天的时间段里,传闻消息对股价有正影响,从而给投机者带来了非正常收益,但是从长期来看,传闻消息不会给投资者带来任何非正常收益。另外,通过对各类传闻消息对股价影响的进一步分析,发现在诸类传闻消息中,主力类传闻对上市公司股价的影响最为显著,能给投机者带来很大的非正常收益。     

Explaining the accounting disclosure index of stock exchanges by foreign exchange market activity

In this article, researcher-created accounting disclosure index of 23 stock exchanges for the year 1992 and its relationship with variables including foreign exchange turnover, economic and financial indicators were investigated. The accounting disclosure index of global stock exchanges crafted by Adhikari and Tondkar (1992) was regressed on foreign market turnover which was utilized as a proxy for foreign exchange market activity. The OLS results supported that along with the activity of foreign exchange market; GNI per capita, market capitalization, energy and electric consumption, number of listed companies were significantly related with the accounting disclosure index. The foreign market turnover was found to be positively influencing the accounting disclosure index. The models explained about 73% of the variation in the index with an F-ratio of 26.56 indicating the overall significance of the model.     

Analysis of efficiency for Shenzhen stock market based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis

We divided the whole series of Shenzhen stock market into two sub-series at the criterion of the date of a reform and their scale behaviors are investigated using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). Employing the method of rolling window, we find that Shenzhen stock market was becoming more and more efficient by analyzing the change of Hurst exponent and a new efficient measure, which is equal to multifractality degree sometimes. We also study the change of Hurst exponent and multifractality degree of volatility series. The results show that the volatility series still have significantly long-range dependence and multifractality indicating that some conventional models such as GARCH and EGARCH cannot be used to forecast the volatilities of Shenzhen stock market. At last, the abnormal phenomenon of multifractality degrees for return series is discussed. The results have very important implications for analyzing the influence of policies, especially under the environment of financial crisis.     

Impact of the federal open market committee's meetings and scheduled macroeconomic news on stock market uncertainty

This study investigates the impact of the scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings and the scheduled macroeconomic news releases on stock market uncertainty. For that purpose, the behavior of the implied volatility of the S&P100 index (VIX) is investigated around the FOMC meeting days and around the employment, producer price index (PPI), and consumer price index (CPI) reports. The results support the hypothesis that implied volatility increases prior to the scheduled news and drops after the announcement. The results reveal that investors regard the FOMC meetings as highly significant for valuing stocks as hypothesized. Of the macroeconomic news releases, the employment report has the largest impact on uncertainty, whereas investors regard the information content of the PPI and CPI together as significant.     

Information diffusion and the predictability of New Zealand stock market returns

This paper examines the impact of international predictors from liquid markets on the predictability of excess returns in the New Zealand stock market using data from May 1992 to February 2011. We find that US stock market return and VIX contribute significantly to the out‐of‐sample forecasts at short horizons even after controlling for the effect of local predictors, while the contribution by Australian stock market return is not significant. We further demonstrate that the predictability of New Zealand stock market returns using US market predictors could be explained by the information diffusion between these two countries.     

Stability of international stock market relationships across month of the year and different holding intervals

Potential benefits from international diversification depend upon the stability in stock market relationships. Using monthly data of 11 international stock markets, this paper examines the stability in stock market relationships across month of the year and across different holding intervals. Empirical results show that the correlation structure is more stable than the covariance structure. While empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that the correlation structure is very stable across different holding intervals, the empirical support for the stability in correlation structure across month of the year is much weaker.     

The informativeness of domestic and foreign investors’ stock trades: Evidence from the perfectly segmented Chinese market

This paper uses the perfect market segmentation setting in China's stock market to compare the information content of the stock trades of domestic and foreign investors. We study 76 firms that issue both A-shares (for domestic investors) and B-shares (for foreign investors) and compare the price discovery role of the two segmented markets in China. Before Feb 19, 2001, the A-share market led the B-share market in price discovery, as the signed volume and quote revision of the A-share market had strong predictive ability for B-share quote returns, but not vice versa. After Feb 19, 2001, because some domestic investors were allowed to invest in the B-share market, we find evidence for a reverse causality from the B-share to the A-share market. Nevertheless, the [Hasbrouck (1995). One security, many markets: determining the contributions to price discovery, Journal of Finance 50, 1175–1199.] information share analysis reveals that A-shares continue to dominate the price discovery process.     

Pre-holiday effects: International evidence on the decline and reversal of a stock market anomaly

The pre-holiday effect is one of the best known of the calendar effect anomalies. This paper extends prior work by examining whether the effect has declined for the U.S., U.K. and Hong Kong markets. For all three markets, the effect is shown to have declined, but only significantly in the U.S. The result is not surprising given the relative sophistication of the market. What is surprising, however, is the reversal of the pre-holiday effect during the period 1991–1997, with the mean return on pre-holiday days becoming negative, and the subsequent elimination of this effect during 1997–2003.     

In America's thrall: the effects of the US market and US security characteristics on Australian stock returns

Can Australian equity returns be modelled by ‘home‐grown’ factors? We examine the indigenous capital asset pricing model, the indigenous Fama–French three‐factor model, and extensions to the latter, and find them all wanting. We find evidence of domestic market segmentation in Australia. For the smallest firms, all the models we study fail. For the largest Australian firms, we find that the US Fama–French three factors (downloaded from French's website: http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/ ) provide a successful model of Australian returns. It is as if the largest firms in the Australian market are simply part of the larger US market.     

转型经济中宏观冲击与公司融资决策——基于资本结构动态调整框架的实证研究

本文探讨经济改革动态背景中的宏观冲击对我国上市公司资本结构调整的影响。企业选择股权债权融资方式时,一方面要权衡债务融资与股权融资的相对成本,另一方面又受到融资资源可获得性的限制。经验证据表明,信贷市场和股权再融资市场上配额性指标和成本性指标的变动,作为外生的宏观冲击,在统计和经济意义上均对企业资本结构的调整具有重要影响。资本结构的调整幅度是信贷规模的增函数,是股权扩容规模、贷款利率、股市收益率的减函数。本文的发现对于宏观经济政策的制定和实施具有现实的政策意义。     

Adoption of IFRS in Spain: Effect on the comparability and relevance of financial reporting

EU Regulation 1606/2002 requires application of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) by groups listed on European stock markets. In Spain, listed groups are now obliged to prepare consolidated financial information under IFRS, and legislative changes to bring local rules into line with international standards have been tabled.In this context, the potential impact of IFRS is fraught with uncertainty. Our study of IBEX-35 companies focuses on the effects of the new standards on comparability and the relevance of financial reporting in Spain. We address these objectives by seeking significant differences between accounting figures and financial ratios under the two sets of standards (i.e. Spanish accounting standards and IFRS).The results obtained show that local comparability has worsened. The study reveals that local comparability is adversely affected if both IFRS and local accounting standards are applied in the same country at the same time. Reforms to bring local rules into line with international standards are therefore urgent. We also find that there has been no improvement in the relevance of financial reporting to local stock market operators because the gap between book and market values is wider when IFRS are applied. While there has been no gain in terms of the usefulness of financial reporting in the short-term, improved usefulness may be achieved in the medium to long-term.     

Corporate Stock and Bond Return Correlations and Dynamic Adjustments of Capital Structure

This paper analyses the effects of dynamic correlations between stock and bond returns issued by the same firm on the speed of adjustment towards target leverage. The results show that the estimated correlations are time varying, show persistence and differ among firms. Analysis of the potential explanatory variables reveals that the correlations decrease with negative expectations about future aggregate risks, but only for firms with a low default probability. In contrast, correlations are positively associated with specific risk measures, especially idiosyncratic stock risk and financial leverage. The positive relationship between the correlations and the leverage ratio suggests that target leverage can be achieved faster when the stock–bond correlation is high. Our results show that this is the case.     

城镇居民参与股市及其对财产性收入的影响——基于我国2000-2008年30个省市(区)面板数据的研究

本文在借鉴国际计算方法的基础上,对我国城镇居民参与股市的广度和深度进行了测算,并实证检验了其对城镇居民财产性收入的影响。研究发现股市参与广度和深度对财产性收入提高均有显著正向促进作用,但城镇居民股市参与广度的影响总体服从倒U型特征。同时,房产价格和收入分配差距也对城镇居民财产性收入有显著影响。