Bank-Firm Relationships and International Banking Markets

This paper reviews how long-term relationships between firms and banks shape the structure and integration of banking markets worldwide. Bank relationships arise to span informational asymmetries that are endemic in financial markets. Firm-bank relationships not only entail specific benefits and costs for both the engaged firms and banks, but also directly affect the structure of banking markets. In particular, the sunk cost of screening and monitoring activities and the 'informational capital' collected by the incumbent banks may act as a barrier to entry. The intensity of the existing firm-bank relationships will determine the height of this barrier and shape the structure of international banking markets. For example, in Scandinavia where firms maintain few and strong relationships, foreign banks may only be able to enter successfully through mergers and acquisitions. On the other hand, Southern European firms maintain many bank relationships. Therefore, banks may consider entering Southern European banking markets through direct investment.     

Business Conditions and Business Starts

This paper analyses the effect of business conditions on new firm starts. The birth of new firms displays a pro-cyclical behaviour, more firms being created when GDP is growing fast and the interest rate is low. The entry response to industry profitability is tempered by the level of sunk costs; for a given profit signal, more entry occurs where sunk costs are low.     

“三农”问题的制度经济学分析

我国是一个农业大国 ,农业、农村和农民问题在整个国民经济中的地位是显而易见的。在经济体制转轨的过程中 ,“三农”问题更显得突出和紧迫 ,它不仅影响了我国农业的可持续发展 ,而且还影响了农民的收入水平及其在国民经济中的基础地位。本文运用一个动态的投资模型 ,分析了沉淀成本对农业生产进入与退出的影响 ,并探讨了其对农户生产投资行为的影响 ,提出了解决“三农”问题的政策处方 :即在农业生产经营活动中 ,由于普遍存在的沉淀成本严重地影响了农民的投资行为 ,因而完善市场制度和非市场制度 ,提高农业生产要素的流动性 ,降低其沉淀成本 ,是解决“三农”问题的关键。     

Temporary trade and heterogeneous firms

Using Hungarian firm-transaction level export data, we show that about one third of firm–destination and about one half of firm–product–destination export spells are short-lived, or temporary, each year. This is in odds with theories where comparative advantage is stable and market entry costs are sunk. We show how endogenous choice between variable and sunk cost trade technologies can explain the empirical importance and some characteristics of temporary trade. We build a model in which the likelihood of temporary trade depends on productivity and capital cost of the firm as well as well-known gravity variables of destinations. These predictions are borne out by the data; the likelihood of permanent trade, defined by a simple filter, rises with firm productivity, financial stability, proximity and GDP of destination countries.     

沉没成本与中国加工环节国际转移的滞后性

跨国公司进入国际市场需要支付一定的进入成本,而这些成本往往是沉淀的。新古典经济学认为决策无需考虑沉没成本,但在现实经济条件下,沉没成本仍然显著影响着企业决策,特别是战略转移决策。近年来,随着中国劳动力成本、汇率的上升,中国加工环节的国际转移问题引起了国内外学者广泛的关注。本文在明确沉没成本概念的基础上,通过模型分析与实证分析证明沉没成本的存在使跨国公司的决策不会对外生波动做出及时反应,最终导致中国加工环节国际转移的滞后性,从新的角度解释了中国外贸加工业持续增长的原因。     

出口经验、沉没成本与企业出口广化--来自中国微观企业的证据

企业恰当利用出口经验的学习效应可减少出口新产品和开拓新市场所需支付的沉没成本,从而推动自身的出口广化。本文基于2000－2005年中国海关数据库中企业－产品－目的国层面的出口数据,运用线性概率模型考察出口经验对企业出口广化的促进机制,发现企业自身和其他企业以往的出口经验对企业当期出口广化存在倒 U型的影响,且这种影响因企业所有制属性和贸易方式的不同而存在结构性差异。     

Market‐specific Sunk Export Costs: The Impact of Learning and Spillovers

Firms may face sunk costs when entering an export market. Previous studies have focused on global or country‐specific sunk export costs. This study analyses the importance of market‐specific sunk export costs (defining ‘market’ as a product–country combination). We also study how market‐specific export costs can be affected by various kinds of learning and spillover effects. We use firm‐level panel data for Norwegian seafood exports distributed on products and countries. The results lend support to the hypothesis of market‐specific sunk costs. We also find evidence of learning and spillover effects, particularly within the same product group.     

Real estate and real options — A case study

Real estate investments in emerging economies are characterized by low liquidity, slow payback and high sunk costs; enduring uncertainties about demand, price/m² and land costs. The introduction of the real options methodology in their analysis considers a housing development as an investment opportunity encompassing several options regarding information acquisition, deferral and abandonment.The model proposed values these managerial flexibilities and shows improved risk management, identifying the optimal strategy (simultaneous vs. sequential) and timing for the construction phases. The maximum rent to pay for the exclusive rights on the land is also determined, a less capital intensive alternative to land ownership.     

Firm Heterogeneity,Origin of Ownership and Export Participation

This paper investigates the relationship between firm heterogeneity and a firm’s decision to export, using the annual survey of Thai manufacturing firms from 2001 to 2004. A significant contribution of this paper is that we are, for the first time, able to break down FDI by country of origin to observe whether the behaviour of MNEs differs by region of origin. We find that sunk entry costs and firm characteristics are important factors in explaining a firm’s decision to export. Another important determinant is the ownership structure of the firm, with foreign‐owned firms having a higher probability of exporting than domestically owned firms, although this differs across country of ownership with potentially important policy implications. Export platform FDI is used to explain the behaviour of foreign firms that invest in Thailand. Using three measures of total factor productivity, we also find that highly productive firms self‐select into the export market. The implication for governments of developing countries is the need to think carefully about how and to whom they target their inward FDI policies as a means of growth. The heterogeneous behaviour of multinationals from different nations means that policies targeting specific regions or countries may be preferable to general tax concessions or the implementation of special economic zones that are open to all.     

Reductions in Real versus Tariff Barriers: The Impact on Industry Concentration

Economic integration has had ambiguous effects on industry concentration. The literature on the topic proposes various explanations for these empirical findings. This paper provides an additional theoretical argument. It shows that in a world of monopolistic competition, integration alone (modeled as a reduction of trade barriers) may exert opposing forces on industry concentration, depending on whether the barrier consists of real (frictional) or tariff costs. In particular, the Herfindahl index of industry concentration falls for a reduction in real costs, but rises for a reduction in tariff costs. The reason is that real barriers burn up resources, such that industry profitability is reduced, reducing entry, and resulting in fewer firms and a correspondingly higher concentration. Under a tariff barrier, the redistributed tariff revenue stabilizes industry profitability, resulting in more firms and a lower concentration.     

The decision to export: Firm heterogeneity,sunk costs,and spatial concentration

Integrating perspectives of the Uppsala model of internationalization process, international new ventures and trade theories of heterogeneous firms, this paper develops a dynamic discrete-choice model of export decisions by a profit-maximizing firm. Empirical analyses based on a panel data set of Chinese firms show that sunk costs, productivity, firm size, foreign ownership, industry competition and spatial concentration are positively associated with the decision to export, while state ownership has a negative association with the probability of exporting. However, we find that the relationships are not always uniform and depend on firm-specific idiosyncrasies. The results show that foreign-invested firms and large firms (regardless of ownership) rely on productivity performance related advantages for expanding overseas, while domestic firms, especially small- and medium-sized enterprises, build competitive advantage by leveraging agglomeration economies and the associated spillovers. Our results highlight the role of firm heterogeneity, sunk costs and spatial concentration in shaping the export behavior of firms.     

INVESTMENT,EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES: A BARGAINING APPROACH

This paper analyzes a three stage game between a firm and its unionized workers. In the first period the firm decides the level of its capital stock. In the second period union and firm bargain over how many workers to hire and the wage rate, then production takes place. In the third stage new production occurs after union and firm have bargained over possible changes in the employment level and wage rate. The hiring of workers is associated with sunk training costs. The main result is that distortions in the use of labor due to sunk training costs induce distortions in the use of capital, even in the absence of sunk investment costs. Because of the strategic impact of investment on later stages of the game, the firm will not equate marginal revenue product and rental cost of capital. Underinvestment or overinvestment will result depending on whether the marginal revenue product of labor is an increasing or decreasing function of capital.     

Indirect Exporters

Indirect exporters are defined as firms exporting through a trade intermediary. These firms have received rapidly expanding empirical and theoretical attention recently. I show that in Eastern Europe and Central Asia these firms do, as predicted by the theoretical literature, lie between domestic firms and direct exporters for a range of performance measures. Multi-product firms, despite their generally higher productivity, are shown to be more likely to use intermediaries than single-product firms, suggesting that “mixed exporting strategies” that use intermediaries are important for these firms. Analysis using a small panel subsample of the data suggests the sunk costs of indirect exporting are significantly lower than those for direct exporting, pointing to a role for intermediaries in “greasing the wheel” of entry to export markets.     

Why do some firms stop exporting?

During economic turbulence, such as those caused by the US-China conflict and COVID-19, sunk cost effect has garnered attention in IB literature. As it becomes increasingly difficult to predict export profits, relying on sunk costs for strategic positioning in export markets appears to be a rational decision. However, few studies quantitatively examined sunk cost effect variations, especially in export-exit decision-making. In our study, we quantified sunk cost effect with respect to export performance and export portfolio, specifically in terms of export-exit probability. Our findings indicate that the export-exit rate due to sunk cost effect is less than 50% only if export volume surpasses a certain threshold. Consequently, we have provided an explanation for why export exits still occur in the presence of high sunk costs. Additionally, we have identified that geographic diversification, up to four destinations, has more synergy with sunk cost effect than product diversification, particularly in volatile environments.     

Gradualism in free trade agreements: a theoretical justification

A notable feature of many recent trade agreements is the gradual, rather than immediate, reduction of trade barriers. In this paper we model trade liberalization as a cooperative relationship that evolves gradually in a non-cooperative environment. We show that specialization, capacity irreversibility and the development of trade-partner specific capital increase the benefit of continuing the liberalizing relationship and decrease, over time, the lowest obtainable self-enforcing tariff. By increasing the penalty of future defection, sunk costs ensure that the self-enforcing trading relationship starts slowly, but once in progress the level of cooperation continues to improve.     

The Determinants of Firm Exit from Exporting: Evidence for the UK

This study seeks to understand to what extent new exporters are able to survive in international markets and whether exit from exporting is more likely to be associated with firm-level heterogeneity or more general factors such as trade costs and/or barriers to entry and exit (such as sunk costs). This study presents the first analysis undertaken for a nationally representative group of UK firms on the determinants of exit from exporting, using panel data covering all market-based sectors of the UK during 1997–2003. Our findings suggest that the probability of a firm ceasing to export is directly influenced by its productivity and other attributes associated with firm-level productivity differences (such as size and foreign ownership). Micro-finance factors, such as profitability and the ability to finance through long-term debt, play an additional role. Lastly, sectoral differences (e.g. industrial concentration) also help explain the firm’s exit decision, whilst trade costs lead to a higher probability of exiting from selling internationally.     

Towards a holistic framework of MNE–state bargaining: A formal model and case-based analysis

In this paper, we develop a holistic framework for MNE–state bargaining based on power-dependence theory. We contribute to IB theory by moving beyond a static, bilateral conceptualization of MNE–state bargaining towards a dynamic, multi-party framework. MNEs can shift the power balance in their favor by (a) reducing sunk costs from the investment, (b) improving access to alternative investments, (c) increasing the host government’s sunk costs, or (d) impeding the host government’s access to alternative investors and buyers. Subsequently, we apply our framework to the Venezuelan oil industry, identifying 12 MNE micro-strategies to achieve a sustainable power balance.     

Do falling iceberg costs explain recent U.S. export growth?

We study empirically and theoretically the growth of U.S. manufacturing exports from 1987 to 2007. We use plant-level data on exporters' export intensity to identify the changes in iceberg costs over this period. Given this change in iceberg costs, we find that a GE model with heterogeneous establishments and dynamic exporting decision from a sunk cost of starting to export is consistent with both aggregate U.S. export growth and the changes in the number and size of U.S. exporters. The model also captures the gradual response of U.S. exports to the cut in iceberg costs. A model with a static exporting decision generates substantially less trade growth and misses out on the timing of export growth. We also study the interplay between changes in the structure of manufacturing and trade. We find that the growth in trade contributed little to the contraction in U.S. manufacturing while changes in the structure of manufacturing from changes in sectoral productivity, capital intensity, idiosyncratic shocks, and corporate taxation reduced U.S. export growth by as much as 10%.     

There will be exports and licensing: The effects of patent rights and innovation on firm sales

Previous work has focused on how intellectual property rights affect inward technology transfer. This paper is among the first to study whether patent rights contribute to outward technology transfers. Patent protection can affect the ability of firms to be sources of technology through its effects on innovation and commercialization. Using micro data, this paper finds that patent rights and innovation are positively associated with the exporting and licensing of firms, controlling for other determinants of technological capacity, although the effect is not symmetric across firms in all countries. Patent rights have a strong impact on the export and licensing activities of firms in developed countries, and only on the licensing activities of firms in developing countries. Moreover, transfers of technology develop sequentially – namely, exporting before licensing – due to the differing sunk costs of each type of entry. The results have implications for how innovation policies and activities contribute to the outward orientation of firms.     

Migration of skilled workers and innovation: A European Perspective

We study empirically and theoretically the growth of U.S. manufacturing exports from 1987 to 2007. We use plant-level data on exporters' export intensity to identify the changes in iceberg costs over this period. Given this change in iceberg costs, we find that a GE model with heterogeneous establishments and dynamic exporting decision from a sunk cost of starting to export is consistent with both aggregate U.S. export growth and the changes in the number and size of U.S. exporters. The model also captures the gradual response of U.S. exports to the cut in iceberg costs. A model with a static exporting decision generates substantially less trade growth and misses out on the timing of export growth. We also study the interplay between changes in the structure of manufacturing and trade. We find that the growth in trade contributed little to the contraction in U.S. manufacturing while changes in the structure of manufacturing from changes in sectoral productivity, capital intensity, idiosyncratic shocks, and corporate taxation reduced U.S. export growth by as much as 10%.