次贷危机背景下我国银行跨国并购分析

2007年8月美国爆发的次级抵押贷款危机，对全球经济造成了巨大冲击和动荡。这场席卷全球的金融危机给我国银行实施走出去战略提供了机遇，同时也带来了新的挑战。本文分析了次贷危机对中国银行业通过跨国并购实现跨国经营的影响，并就我国银行如何抓住机遇，迎接挑战提出了一些建议和对策。     

跟进巴塞尔协议Ⅲ,全面提升风险管理水平

2010年9月12日,27国中央银行代表一致通过巴塞尔协议Ⅲ。2010年12月12日,巴塞尔委员会网站公布了《巴塞尔第三版协议:更加稳健的银行和银行体系的全球监管框架》和《巴塞尔第三版协议:流动性风险计量、标准和监测的国际框架》等文件。这是巴塞尔委员会针对美国次贷危机爆发的全球金融危机采取的亡羊补牢出台的全球银行业资本新规,在各国金融业接连掀起波澜。巴塞尔协议Ⅲ对世界各国的影响程度不一,有业内人士认为,对于中国银行业特别是大型银行而言,巴塞尔Ⅲ的影响不大。然而,中国银监会有关负责人则表示,中国银行业的一些指标实际上已经达到了巴塞尔Ⅲ的要求,但这并不能说明什么问题,未来风险依然相伴随,银行达标后是否就能够应对可能发生的系统性风险,还有待于实践考验。     

中国银行业风险形成机理及压力测试研究:基于行业信贷视角

本文以新常态作为切入点,首次从行业信贷视角探究新常态时期经济增速下行压力对银行风险的影响,进而研究2007年至2015年宏观经济特征在银行风险形成过程中的一般作用.研究发现:(1)新常态下经济增速放缓对中国银行业的风险影响程度有限.从行业信贷来看,顺周期行业的信贷风险高于逆周期行业的信贷风险;(2)在银行风险的形成机理方面,物价变动引起的“货币幻觉”效应长期存在;银行自身特征引起的风险放大效应主要存在于金融危机时期;经济增速放缓引起的信贷需求摩擦在非危机时期更突出.上述因素对不同周期性行业信贷风险的影响与总体情况基本一致;(3)基于银行风险形成机理,本文发现货币政策比汇率政策治理银行风险的效果更好.此外,危机时期应使用宏观审慎政策抑制银行风险的自我放大.     

基于BSSI指数的中国银行体系稳定性研究

随着中国银行业的全面开放,中国银行体系在日益激烈的竞争中能否有效抵御冲击、维护稳定成为一个必须正视的问题。以银行危机先行指标为基础构建的银行体系稳定性指标——BSSI能更好地监控中国银行体系的抗冲击能力和稳定程度,防范银行体系的不稳定演变成银行危机,确保在金融安全的前提下提高中国银行体系的竞争力和效率。     

我国商业银行风险管理存在的问题及对策——基于新巴塞尔资本协议视角

中国加入WTO快八年了,中国银行全面跨入国际金融市场,要求我国的银行按照国际条约新巴塞尔资本协议的监管原则和标准化方法来进行经营管理.但中国银行业面临着风险识别困难,风险衡量有限,风险监管和控制难以有效实施等问题.这与新资本协议的要求相差较大,威胁着中国金融的安全和国际竞争力.本文就是基于中国银行业面临的严峻形势,按照新巴塞尔协议的风险管理理念,结合我国商业银行的现状,分析我国银行风险管理面临的问题,并据此提出相应的对策.     

中外银行制度体系演进路径比较分析及其借鉴作用

银行制度是中国银行业持续健康发展必不可少的战略资源。但受某些历史原因和中国银行制度体系演进路径的影响 ,中国银行制度建设中存在不少问题。本文在结合中美德三国银行制度体系演进路径比较分析的基础上 ,探寻中国银行制度建设中存在问题的原因 ,并提出一些初步的对策建议。     

危机后的国际银行业竞争格局新变化及对中国的启示

本文分析了危机后的国际银行业竞争格局新变化,由于全球经济的缓慢复苏,全球银行业利润有所改善,发达国家银行业利润扭亏为盈,新兴市场国家尤其是亚洲国家银行业继续领先,由美国和欧洲银行业占主导地位的传统银行业竞争格局发生变化,国际银行业竞争格局将由西向东转移,亚洲国家的银行地位尤其是中国银行业地位在不断上升。因此,中国银行业应抓住机遇,合理制定与调整其发展战略,加速后危机时代中国银行业转型,加强金融监管和全面风险管理,提高银行的资本质量与数量,稳步推进其在全球的发展战略,以提高中国银行业的国际竞争力。     

如何在新时期加强我国银行的监管

随着我国经济的快速发展,中国银行业监管取得了较大进展,在防范银行业风险、促进银行业发展中发挥了重要作用。但应注意的是,中国当前的银行业风险仍然十分突出,银行业的监管也存在诸多问题,本文主要论述了如何在新时期加强我国银行的监管问题。     

危机后在华韩资银行的发展问题与发展策略

正在美国金融危机和欧洲主权债务危机的影响下,全球银行业在经营环境、监管制度和发展策略等方面都发生了深刻的变革,这些变革影响着中国银行业的发展变化,也对危机后在华韩资银行的发展带来一定的挑战。以往一些学者主要研究韩国金融机构进入中国的市场战略,还有一些学者主要研究韩资银行的本土化战略,但对已经进入中国市场的韩资银行可持续发展问题的研     

美国防范银行系统性风险的做法及启示

中国银行业潜在的系统性风险较大，巨大的不良资产和落后的银行管理是影响中国银行业稳定性的直接因素，为保持中国银行业可持续发展，促进中国经济健康运行，美国在防范银行系统性风险方面的做法可资借鉴。     

Credit Risk Determinants for the Bulgarian Banking System

Using an autoregressive distributed lag model, this paper examines the factors that influence the credit risk of the Bulgarian banking system over the decade 2001–2010, as measured by non-performing loans. Recent papers aim to identify the determinants of non-performing loans using a cross-country modelling framework. As the South East European region (SEE) is non-homogeneous, our analysis is country-specific and captures the timeline between the bank privatisation era up to the global financial crisis and the ensuing Greek crisis. The contribution of our paper is twofold: it uses the ARDL modelling framework that is scarcely employed in related studies but also investigates spillover effects from the Greek crisis in view of the material presence of Greek banks in Bulgaria. In accordance with previous studies, the findings suggest that the credit risk determinants of Bulgarian banks should be sought endogenously in macroeconomic variables and industry-specific factors but also in exogenous factors. We evidence a pronounced role of the global financial crisis and the country’s bank regulatory framework. The Greek debt crisis appears to play an immaterial role indicating that Greek banks have not been a Trojan horse in the Bulgarian banking system.     

Analysing Systemic Risk in the Chinese Banking System

We examine systemic risk in the Chinese banking system by estimating the conditional value at risk (CoVaR), the marginal expected shortfall (MES), the systemic impact index (SII) and the vulnerability index (VI) for 16 listed banks in China for the 2007–2014 period. We find that these measures show different patterns, capturing different aspects of systemic risk of Chinese banks. However, rankings of banks based on these measures are significantly correlated. The time‐series results for the CoVaR and MES measures suggest that systemic risk in the Chinese banking system decreased after the global financial crisis but started rising in 2014.     

Did foreign banks stay committed to emerging Europe during recent financial crises?

Our objective is to investigate empirically the behavior of foreign banks with respect to real loan growth during periods of financial crisis for a set of countries in which foreign banks dominate the banking sectors due primarily to having taken over large existing former state-owned banks. The eight countries are among the most developed in emerging Europe, their banking sectors having been modernized by the middle of the last decade. We consider a data period that includes an initial credit boom (2005 – 2007) followed by the global financial crisis (2008 & 2009) and the onset of the Eurozone crisis (2010). Our two innovations with respect to the existing literature on banking during the financial crisis are to separate foreign banks into two categories, namely, subsidiaries of the Big 6 European multinational banks (MNBs) and all other foreign-controlled banks, and to take account of the impact of exchange rates during the period. Our results show that bank lending was impacted adversely by both crises but that the two types of foreign banks behaved differently. The Big 6 banks remained committed to the region in that their lending behavior was not different from that of domestic banks supporting the notion that these countries are treated as a “second home market” by these European MNBs. Contrariwise, the other foreign banks active in the region were involved in fueling the credit boom but then decreased their lending aggressively during the crisis periods. Our results also indicate that bank behavior in countries having flexible exchange rate regimes differs from that in those in (or effectively in) the Eurozone. Our results suggest that both innovations matter for studying bank behavior during crisis periods in the region and, by extension, to other small countries in which banking sectors are dominated by foreign financial institutions having different business models.     

基于分位数回归商业银行系统性风险研究

在宏观审慎监管框架下,对系统重要性银行的识别并对其提出更高监管要求是金融危机后的监管重点。文章选取代表不同类型的8家上市商业银行为样本银行,采用CoVaR模型和分位数回归技术对2007-2011年实体经济和金融数据进行实证分析。实证表明:从流动性方面看,资产规模较大的银行反而面临更高的流动性风险,其风险溢出效应更容易导致系统性风险的聚集,发生危机时对系统性风险贡献较大;在宏观经济周期逆转时,中小型银行相对大型银行更容易出现风险溢出效应导致系统性风险聚集;因此政策建议:银行业监管当局的监管重点在传统的资产规模庞大的银行,同时也要关注银行业务增长过快的中小银行,这些银行往往也是系统性风险聚集和金融危机爆发的始作俑者。     

The sources of contagion risk in a banking sector with foreign ownership

Foreign-dominated banking sectors, such as those prevalent in Central and Eastern Europe, are susceptible to two major sources of systemic risk: (i) linkages between local banks and (ii) linkages between a foreign parent bank and its local subsidiary. During and after the global financial crisis, the second source of risk has been stressed by local regulators. Using a nonparametric method based on extreme value theory, we analyze interdependencies in downward risk in the banking sectors of the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, and Turkey during 1994–2013. We find that the risk of contagion from a foreign parent bank to its local subsidiary is substantially smaller than the risk between two local banks.     

Overcapacities in banking: Measurement,trends and determinants

Global banks face profitability challenges since the global financial crisis. Besides cyclical factors, structural features such as overcapacities have been identified as root causes. While policymakers agree on the need for bank consolidation, there is less consensus on the definition and measurement of overcapacities in banking. This paper contributes by conceptualising and formalising the different dimensions of overcapacities in banking and by constructing a novel measure thereof. In addition, it empirically tests the main determinants of overcapacities in banking from 2006 to 2017 and assesses their relative importance. The results indicate that non-bank competition, the interest rate environment and bank business models are the most important driving factors of banking sector overcapacities. This is because shadow banks, benefitting from regulatory arbitrage, have altered banks’ capacity needs, low rates compressed margins and increased pressure to improve cost efficiencies, and retail-oriented business models have operated extensive branch networks entailing heavy fixed costs.     

The Efficiency of China's Banking Industry and the Determinants

The recent global financial crisis highlights the importance of a sound financial sector for economic development. This paper evaluates the economic efficiency of China's banking industry and investigates the determinants of this efficiency. Our analysis shows that the average economic efficiency of joint-stock commercial banks is highest, followed by the ‘Big Four’ state-owned commercial banks and city commercial banks. The economic inefficiency of these banks during the past 15 years was mainly caused by technical inefficiency, and this technical inefficiency was mainly caused by scale inefficiency. Using the scores of efficiency as dependent variables, the paper also comprehensively studies the impact of (1) the characteristics of individual banks, (2) the characteristics of the whole banking industry and (3) macroeconomic factors on banking efficiency. The results suggest a number of factors that banks can work on to improve efficiency and lend support to deepening reforms in the Chinese banking industry, including regulatory reforms that require capital adequacy in a more strict way, reforms that introduce more competition and, more broadly, reforms that aim at establishing institutions that can truly commercialize Chinese banks. Last but not least, the efficiency of banking depends on healthy growth of the overall economy.     

Determinants of credit loan securitization in Chinese banking

This paper investigates the factors that drive securitization in China using a panel dataset drawn from the financial statements of 83 commercial banks. Given the unique banking and regulatory environment in China, we consider both conventional motivations for securitization and the role of nontraditional factors, including shadow banking. Across a variety of econometric specifications, there is little evidence that banks securitize for typical reasons, including to fund liquidity, transfer credit risk, or reduce regulatory capital. We do find, however, that as banks approach limits on loan to deposit ratios, subsequent securitization activities rise. In addition, robust evidence is presented to show that high levels of nontraditional banking activities precede a decision to securitize. As there is little evidence to suggest that shadow banking activities are receding, the overall findings indicate that banks may be using securitization to mitigate regulatory risk.     

商业银行集团客户信贷风险管理研究

近年来,一系列集团客户先后爆发债务危机,给银行信贷资产带来重大损失和负面影响。本文针对集团客户的风险特征和我国商业银行的管理缺陷,指出集团客户信贷风险的成因,提出加强集团性客户信贷风险管理的对策     

金融危机对巴塞尔新资本协议和商业银行风险管理的挑战

正在影响着世界的金融危机,在考验商业银行自身的风险管理能力的同时,也挑战了全球银行业赖以为标准的巴塞尔新资本协议。本文旨在从危机爆发的原因出发,封新资本协议关于银行的风险管理方面的规定进行分析,以及在金融全球化的大环境下,中国的银行业应该如何应对危机。