企业多元化战略与财务决策的关系：一个多视角的分析框架

本文试图从理论上系统分析在不同的多元化战略下(相关多元化和无关多元化)应采取何种财务决策。在结合不同理论视角的同时,分析企业不同的参与者类群(债权人,股东,高层管理者、部门管理者)的心理和行为决策。财务决策采用常用的分类:投资(长期和短期)、融资(权益融资和债务融资)和股利分配(高股利和低股利)。理论分析认为,相关多元化的公司倾向于进行长期投资,使用股权融资和低现金股利政策;无关多元化的公司倾向于进行短期投资,使用债权融资及高现金股利政策。     

Ready to run: price determinants of thoroughbreds from 2 year olds in training sales

This article utilizes data from the complete set of U.S. thoroughbred 2-year-old in-training sales held in 2013 and estimates the determinants of prices for 1806 two-year-old thoroughbreds. The results reveal that the time in which these prospective racehorses run a standardized distance is the most statistically significant determinant of market price. Other individual horse characteristics, pedigree quality variables and sale quality are also found to be price determinants. An additional result of interest is the significant premium buyers are willing to pay for horses by sires of unknown quality.     

理解企业多元化经营的新视角:控股股东的影响

多元化经营在现实企业中普遍存在,这也吸引了大量研究探寻企业多元化经营的动机。已有文献主要关注企业本身多元化经营,忽略了控股股东因素,从而存在一定的认知偏差。不同于已有文献,基于手工搜集数据,本文首次考察了控股股东多元化经营与上市公司多元化经营之间的关系及其影响因素。研究发现,首先,控股股东多元化经营与上市公司多元化经营之间存在着一定的替代关系,说明控股股东将上市公司多元化经营作为其整体多元化经营战略的一部分;其次,从影响机制上看,控股股东持有上市公司的权益在其总资产中份额越高、其他大股东持股比例越高、上市公司所处地区市场化程度越高,控股股东多元化经营与上市公司多元化经营之间的替代关系会越弱,说明那些有助于减轻控股股东对上市公司进行干预的因素将会弱化这种关系。本文为理解企业多元化经营行为以及企业与其控股股东的关系提供了新的视角。     

The end of Brazilian big inflation: lessons to monetary policy from a standard New Keynesian model

The paper analyzes economic stabilization in Brazil in the context of a New Keynesian model estimated with Bayesian techniques. Dataset covers the period 1975–2012. Our methodology is based on tests for multiple structural breaks at unknown dates and counterfactual exercises. The results show that inflation and output volatility present an inverted U-shape pattern, peaking at the 1985–1994 sample. Changes in the monetary policy stance and milder shocks accounted for the reduced inflationary volatility (about 50% each, in some specifications). However, some assumptions indicated that a sharp decline in the Phillips curve slope was also important for controlling inflation. Concerning to output, the sole explanation for its volatility fall seemed to be smaller shocks. Therefore, we conclude that a mix of the “good luck” and “good policy” hypotheses mainly originated the current period of increased stability in the country.     

The monetary transmission mechanism: Evidence from the industries of five OECD countries

This paper studies the monetary transmission mechanism using disaggregated industry data from five industrialized countries. Our goal is to document the cross-industry heterogeneity of monetary policy effects and relate it to industry characteristics suggested by monetary transmission theories. Sizable and significant cross-industry differences in the effects of monetary policy are found. Such differences swamp the hardly detectable cross-country variability. Sectoral output responses to monetary policy shocks are systematically related to the industry output durability, financing requirements, borrowing capacity and firm size. These findings are consistent with a quantitatively non-negligible role of financial frictions in the monetary transmission.     

The lower bound and the causes of monetary policy inertia: evidence from Sweden

In 2009, in the midst of a global recession, Sweden’s Riksbank approached a lower bound on nominal interest rates. This encounter with the lower bound provides a natural experiment for investigating the causes of monetary policy inertia. To exploit this experiment, we estimate Taylor rules with Tobit specifications that permit both interest rate smoothing and persistent shocks (serial correlation) as explanations for inertia. The interest rate smoothing hypothesis leads to a specification in which lagged actual values of the dependent variable appear on the right-hand side of the Taylor rule, while the persistent shocks hypothesis leads to a specification in which lagged values of an unobserved latent dependent variable appear on the right-hand side of the Taylor rule. The divergence of actual and latent dependent variables that occurs at the lower bound provides leverage in distinguishing the two hypotheses. For a conventional Taylor rule, we find evidence of both sources of inertia. For a modified Taylor rule that includes a measure of financial stress, our evidence suggests that interest rate smoothing is the principal source of monetary policy inertia.     

The dynamic effectiveness of monetary policy in China: evidence from a TVP-SV-FAVAR model

We use a broad set of China’s macroeconomic indicators and a dynamic factor model to estimate latent factors of economic output and inflation, which are used to measure the ultimate objectives of monetary policy. The above factors and policy variables are incorporated into a TVP-SV-FAVAR model to investigate the dynamic effectiveness of Chinese monetary policy. Our results confirm that the effects of Chinese monetary policy are time-varying. By comparing the quantity rule with the price rule, we find that the price rule is more effective in managing China’s macro-economy, especially after the financial crisis. Moreover, the results can be regarded as a division of policy rules in a way that different rules are directed at different objectives.     

The performance of German water utilities: a (semi)-parametric analysis

Germany's water supply industry is characterized by a multitude of utilities and widely diverging prices, possibly resulting from structural differences beyond the control of firms’ management, but also from inefficiencies. In this article, we use Data Envelopment Analysis and Stochastic Frontier Analysis to determine the utilities’ Technical Efficiency (TE) scores based on cross-sectional data from 373 public and private water utilities in 2006. We find large differences in TE scores even after accounting for significant structural variables like network density, share of groundwater usage and water losses.     

The effects of agglomeration economies on technical efficiency of manufacturing firms: evidence from Indonesia

This article examines the effects of agglomeration economies and industrial structure upon firm-level technical efficiency in the Indonesian manufacturing industry over the period 2004–2009. A stochastic production frontier and three channels of agglomeration economies consisting of specialization, diversity and competition are used. The empirical results show that the effects of specialization and diversity upon firm-level technical efficiency are positive and negative, respectively, indicating that specialization is more favourable than diversity for stimulating firms’ technical efficiency. Competition has a positive sign, showing that region with high levels of competition tend to be more conducive in accelerating firm-level technical efficiency. In terms of firm location, both dummy for urban region and industrial complex turn out to be positive, indicating that firms located in both areas are experienced higher technical efficiency. Both firm size and age also have positive effect upon technical efficiency.     

The effect of capital requirement regulation on the transmission of monetary policy: evidence from Austria

This paper analyzes the role of banks’ regulatory capitalization in the transmission of monetary policy. We use a confidential dataset for Austrian banks spanning from the first quarter of 1997 to the fourth quarter of 2003. We find evidence that Austrian banks react in an asymmetric way to monetary policy depending on their regulatory excess capitalization, i.e. low capitalized banks react more restrictively to a monetary tightening than their highly capitalized peers.

The return to education and its distribution in urban China: evidence from quantile regression analysis

Based on Chinese Households Income Projects in 2002, this paper discusses the relationship between the return to education and the quantiles of income distribution. The findings in this paper show that the return to education is lower for the higher quantiles, while the estimators also depend on the choice of control variables. The methodology of the quantile regression might be helpful in adjusting the ability bias in the estimation on return to education. The policy implications of the paper highlight the impact of the education expansion in boosting the income growth for those in lower quantiles.     

The recent process of job polarization in Japan: evidence from 1980 to 2010

This study investigates the recent process of job polarization in Japan. We focus on three particular aspects: the relationship with business cycles, total hours rather than employment and age cohorts. We find that, regardless of whether the focus is employment or total hours, job polarization is concentrated in recessions and that job polarization has occurred mainly in younger-age cohorts.     

The contribution of institutions, trade, and geography to the development process: How robust is the empirical evidence to variations in the sample?

This paper uses an influence spectrum to identify influential subsets in a stylized cross-country data set and finds that institutions, geography, and trade (policy), all appear to play a significant role in the development process for a relatively large sub-sample of countries. For example, equatorial distance, a proxy for geography, becomes positive and significant (originally negative and insignificant) after removing only eight countries or observations from the original sample of sixty-three, while controlling for institutions and trade. In fact, for this set of fifty-five countries all three variables have the correct sign and are statistically significant. As another example, the trade variable becomes positive and significant (originally insignificant) after removing only two countries from the original sample.First version received: May 2003/Final version received: February 2004     

The quality and quantity of bank intermediation and economic growth: evidence from Asia Pacific

We investigate the impact of the quantity and quality of bank intermediation on economic growth across 14 Asia-Pacific economies over 2003–2015. Measures of bank shareholder value efficiency as well as profit and cost efficiency are used as indicators of intermediation quality. We also employ measures of liquidity creation (fat and nonfat) as a proxy for the quantity of bank intermediation. Our main finding is that the quality of bank intermediation (enhanced credit allocation) is a driver of economic growth in developed Asia-Pacific economies, whereas it is the quantity of bank intermediation (capital accumulation) that positively influences growth in developing nations. From a policy perspective, our findings suggest that policymakers in developed nations should concentrate their efforts on reforms that enhance bank efficiency. Second, reforms that stimulate capital accumulation should be encouraged in developing economies because this is the main channel that spurs economic growth.     

The impact of production offshoring on the skill composition of manufacturing firms: evidence from Italy

In this work we explore how the international outsourcing of production impacts the skill composition of employment within Italian manufacturing firms. In particular, our aim is to assess whether the choice to offshore production activities to cheap‐labour countries implies a bias in the employment of skilled workers relative to unskilled ones.

Using a balanced panel of firms covering the period 1995–2003, we set up a counterfactual analysis in which, by using a difference‐in‐differences propensity score matching estimator, we compare the dynamics of skill demand for treated and control firms while addressing the possible problem of selection bias.

Our results identify a ‘potential’ skill bias effect of production offshoring. In particular, we find that treated firms tend to show an upward shift in the skill ratio with respect to the counterfactual sample, but coefficients are not significantly different from zero. When we look at the elements of the skill ratio separately, we find that the skill bias is driven by a fall in the employment of production workers (blue collars), rather than by the increase in the employment of non‐production workers (white collars), thus providing further evidence on the unskilled labour‐saving nature of international outsourcing.     

房价波动、调控政策立场估计及其影响效应研究--基于1998-2014年数据的实证分析

调控政策对房价的反应、立场和影响效应是政府政策设计的重要依据,2007年底金融危机爆发后,调控政策和房价波动都发生了显著变化。文章以2008年为界,构建了三个房价和政策变量的月度时间序列样本：1998-2007年、2008-2014年和1998-2014年,在此基础上,对2008年前后调控政策的反应、立场和影响效应进行了实证分析。结果表明：(1)实际贷款利率和货币供应量在2008年前后对目标变量的反应是交错变化的,货币供应量对房价的反应与假定相反,货币政策并未对房价做出充分反应,而财政和土地政策表现出了较好的反应结果。(2)货币供应量对房价波动的影响最大,是房价持续上涨的重要原因,2008年以来,固定资产投资的影响非常显著,脉冲响应分析发现利率只能在短期内对房价产生负向影响,除土地政策外,货币和财政政策皆会在长期内对房价产生稳定影响。文章的研究为推进房价政策调控和房地产市场健康稳定发展提供了可靠的经验支持。     

Investing in innovation to enable global competitiveness: The case of Portugal

The concept of leveraged innovation to create wealth within regions, countries and economies is not a new concept. Competitiveness of regions in the increasingly global economy now requires not only that innovation be present within a regional economy, but also that mechanisms exist to effectively transfer those developed innovations from the research laboratory to the marketplace. It is surmised that increased innovation, and the transfer of this innovation, can lead to increased prosperity of regions (Porter). As such, many developing countries around the world are looking at investments in innovation as a means to spur regional economic development and wealth creation while preserving national competitiveness. That said, innovation investment is by no means an exact science. Historically, typical “innovation investments” have been focused on “tangible” capital infrastructure projects such as the establishment of incubators and science parks. While many regions point to the existence of such tangible innovation assets as proof of investment in innovation, it has been discovered that in some cases, an investment in the capacity building of human networks to engage in technology transfer and commercialization related activities can act as a stronger facilitator for the transformation of economies and produce a larger return on investment in innovation for the country. Given not only Portugal's, but other regions throughout the EU-Zone, recent financial and economic woes, it bears examination on whether investing in the innovation and technology transfer knowledge and “know how” of key human networks within a struggling economy is a worthwhile investment for financially struggling countries during the current times of fiscal crisis.     

The Occupational Segregation of African American Women: Its Evolution from 1940 to 2010

Based on detailed occupation titles and making use of measures that do not require pair-wise comparisons, this paper shows that the occupational segregation of African American women declined dramatically in 1940–80, decreased slightly in 1980–2000, and remained stagnant in 2000–10. This paper quantifies the well-being losses that African American women derive from their occupational sorting. The reduction of segregation was indeed accompanied by well-being improvements, especially in the 1960s and 1970s. Regarding the role that education has played, this study highlights that it was only from 1990 onward that African American women with either some college or university degrees had lower segregation (as compared with their peers) than those with lower education. Nevertheless, the well-being loss that African American women with university degrees derived in 2010 for being segregated from their peers in education was not too different from that of African American women with lower education.     

The effects of learning and signaling on money demand: With an application to heterodox inflation stabilization programs

This paper develops a nonlinear vector autoregression of inflation and money growth subject to changes in regime. The regimes are fully characterized by the mean and variance of inflation and are conjectured to be the result of alternative government policies. Agents are unable to observe directly whether government actions are indeed consistent with the inflation rate targeted as part of a stabilization program. However, as part of their money demand decision, agents construct probability inferences regarding the regime. Government announcements are assumed to provide agents with additional, possibly truthful information regarding the regime.  This specification is estimated using data from the Israeli and Argentine high-inflation periods. Results indicate that the successful stabilization program implemented in Israel in July 1985 was more credible than either the earlier Israeli attempt in November 1984 or the Argentine programs. Government's signaling might simplify the agents' inference problem and increase the speed of their learning but, under certain conditions, it might also increase inflation volatility. Welfare gains from a temporary increase in real balances might be high enough to induce agents to raise their money demand in the short-term even if they are uncertain about the nature of government policy and the eventual outcome of the stabilization attempt. Statistically, the model restrictions cannot be rejected at the 1% significance level. First version received: August 1998/Final version received: January 1999     

韩国对华投资：现状、趋势及中国的对策

近年来,韩国时华投资迅速增长,中国业已成为韩国海外第一大投资国。韩资时华产业实际收入中,制造业占据了85％的份额。对华投资区域主要集中于中国东部,占对华投资总额的90％以上。今后韩国时华投资发展趋势是：大企业集团将增多,投资规模增大;以制造业为主,服务业成为增长点;投资向东南部转移,并向中西部扩展。