MEAN VARIANCE PREFERENCES, EXPECTATIONS FORMATION, AND THE DYNAMICS OF RANDOM ASSET PRICES

This paper analyzes the dynamics of an explicit random process of prices and price expectations of finitely many assets in an economy with overlapping generations of heterogeneous consumers. They maximize expected utility with respect to subjective transition probabilities defined by Markov kernels which describe the forecasting behavior of agents. Given such forecasting rules (predictors) and an exogenous process of dividends, the evolution of equilibrium asset prices and expectations is described by a random dynamical system in the sense of Arnold (1998) . The paper investigates the long-run behavior (stationary solutions) by proving the existence and stability of random fixed points for mean-variance preferences under various predictors, including unbiased predictions, and adaptive, as well as OLS forecasting. An explicit characterization of rational expectations solutions is given, providing a full dynamic characterization of asset price processes for the classical CAPM in the case of stationary OLG economies. Numerical simulations are used to compare the performance of the different predictors under an AR(1) dividend process.     

EXACT SOLUTION OF A MARTINGALE STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY OPTION PROBLEM AND ITS EMPIRICAL EVALUATION

Exact explicit solution of the log-normal stochastic volatility (SV) option model has remained an open problem for two decades. In this paper, I consider the case where the risk-neutral measure induces a martingale volatility process, and derive an exact explicit solution to this unsolved problem which is also free from any inverse transforms. A representation of the asset price shows that its distribution depends on that of two random variables, the terminal SV as well as the time average of future stochastic variances. Probabilistic methods, using the author's previous results on stochastic time changes, and a Laplace–Girsanov Transform technique are applied to produce exact explicit probability distributions and option price formula. The formulae reveal interesting interplay of forces between the two random variables through the correlation coefficient. When the correlation is set to zero, the first random variable is eliminated and the option formula gives the exact formula for the limit of the Taylor series in Hull and White's (1987) approximation. The SV futures option model, comparative statics, price comparisons, the Greeks and practical and empirical implementation and evaluation results are also presented. A PC application was developed to fit the SV models to current market prices, and calculate other option prices, and their Greeks and implied volatilities (IVs) based on the results of this paper. This paper also provides a solution to the option implied volatility problem, as the empirical studies show that, the SV model can reproduce market prices, better than Black–Scholes and Black-76 by up to 2918%, and its IV curve can reproduce that of market prices very closely, by up to within its 0.37%.     

An Investigation of Consumer Subjective Knowledge in Frontline Interactions

It is no secret that the consumer journey produces retail consumers who have varying levels of subjective knowledge about a purchase prior to a retail interaction. This observation leads to a common conclusion that the need for frontline employees (FLEs) in retail environments is diminishing. Nevertheless, retailers invest heavily in staffing and training FLEs. As such, understanding pre-encounter subjective knowledge and how FLEs should address it is critical, yet the topic is largely overlooked in the marketing literature. Thus, we investigate consumer subjective knowledge via an information diagnosticity lens to provide guidance on how subjective knowledge operates when the information in question is scarce/known, tacit/explicit, and specific/general. The results of three experiments reveal consumers can be classified as traditional, well-calibrated, or poorly-calibrated based on their subjective knowledge prior to meeting with an FLE – with each type requiring different FLE approaches to improve both consumers’ willingness to buy and acceptance of FLE recommendations.     

Service recovery expectation model – from the perspectives of consumers

This paper explores the influence of the major attributes of consumers, such as personality traits, gender, number of consumptions, and levels of involvement, on service recovery expectations. A combination of linear multivariate statistical analysis and nonlinear fuzzy neural network models is further used to analyse data and validate hypotheses. Consumers of middle-to-high-end Chinese restaurant chains are sampled as the interactions between these restaurants and consumers are frequent. The empirical research finds that old customers have lower expectations of service recovery than new ones and male consumers have lower expectations than female consumers. Extrovert-type consumers have lower expectations of service recovery than introvert-type consumers. There is a positive correlation between consumers' involvement and service recovery expectation. As this paper examines the expectations of service recovery from the perspectives of consumers, it aims to help companies use pre-processing of service recovery as a precautionary measure, rather than as a remedial measure as mostly seen. Different from the vast majority of literature that deals with the issue by focusing on western enterprises, this paper uses small-and-medium enterprises in Taiwan and constructs management implications accordingly.     

ERROR-CORRECTION, ⇐ SURPRISE ⇒ MODELS AND THE DIFFERENTIAL APPROACH TO THE CONSUMPTION FUNCTION(*)

The paper provides a general theoretical framework that allows a comparison and a possible reconciliation of error correction models of consumers’behaviour and the life cycle hypothesis under rational expectations. It is suggested that by relaxing the assumption of intertemporally strongly separable and homothetic preferences, a generalization of Hall's random walk model can be derived, containing an error correction mechanism.     

LIQUIDATION OF AN INDIVISIBLE ASSET WITH INDEPENDENT INVESTMENT

We provide an extension of the explicit solution of a mixed optimal stopping–optimal stochastic control problem introduced by Henderson and Hobson. The problem examines whether the optimal investment problem on a local martingale financial market is affected by the optimal liquidation of an independent indivisible asset. The indivisible asset process is defined by a homogeneous scalar stochastic differential equation, and the investor's preferences are defined by a general expected utility function. The value function is obtained in explicit form, and we prove the existence of an optimal stopping–investment strategy characterized as the limit of an explicit maximizing strategy. Our approach is based on the standard dynamic programming approach.     

Building Consumer Relationships Electronically

Abstract

This article addresses a set of interrelated issues in electronic Consumer Relationship Management (eCRM). The focus is specifically on an e-tailing context which consists of (a) consumers purchasing search goods of medium price, that (b) are delivered physically. The discussion deals with: (1) the relational needs of online consumers; (2) whose relational commitment emerges from a staged process; (3) involving an accumulated series of satisfying transactions; (4) that may entail different transaction types; and (5) with satisfaction on any given occasion being based on achievement relative to their expectations. These five components form a framework for building the eCRM business. The archetype for this e-tailing format is Amazon.com which, therefore, is used as a running example.     

How long has it been since the last deal? Consumer promotion timing expectations and promotional response

When modeling consumers’ forward-looking behavior using choice data on frequently purchased products, the common approach assumes that consumers have rational expectations about future promotions. Previous studies modeled such expectations using a first-order Markov (FOM) process. However, empirical evidence from several categories suggest that inter-promotion intervals can last several weeks implying that a FOM process that conditions future expectations of prices only on current-period prices can be limiting. We utilize a Proportional Hazard model (PHM) to characterize consumers’ rational expectation of future price promotion. We first show that estimating a dynamic structural model that uses a FOM specification for rational expectations can bias estimates of promotion effects with both simulation analysis and scanner panel data from four consumer packaged goods product categories. Secondly, we empirically show that a structural model employing a PHM specification for promotion expectations fits the data better than ones that assume only a FOM price or promotion expectation. Lastly, we show using an analysis of promotion policy changes that a structural model with a FOM expectation can lead to suboptimal managerial decisions.     

PRICE SETTING OF MARKET MAKERS: A FILTERING PROBLEM WITH ENDOGENOUS FILTRATION

This paper studies the price‐setting problem of market makers under risk neutrality and perfect competition in continuous time. The classic approach of Glosten–Milgrom is followed. Bid and ask prices are defined as conditional expectations of a true value of the asset given the market makers' partial information that includes the customers' trading decisions. The true value is modeled as a Markov process that can be observed by the customers with some noise at Poisson times. A mathematically rigorous analysis of the price‐setting problem is carried out, solving a filtering problem with endogenous filtration that depends on the bid and ask price processes quoted by the market maker. The existence and uniqueness of the bid and ask price processes is shown under some conditions.     

PRICING CHAINED OPTIONS WITH CURVED BARRIERS

This paper studies barrier options which are chained together, each with payoff contingent on curved barriers. When the underlying asset price hits a primary curved barrier, a secondary barrier option is given to a primary barrier option holder. Then if the asset price hits another curved barrier, a third barrier option is given, and so on. We provide explicit price formulas for these options when two or more barrier options with exponential barriers are chained together. We then extend the results to the options with general curved barriers.     

Twisting Tradition: Consumers' Behavior Toward Alternative Closures

Consumer evaluations of products are not entirely based on the absolute attributes or value of the product, but rather on the discrepancy between the product's attributes and the expectations consumers have for that product. Following the Dowling and Staelin model on perceived risk, an evaluation was made of how alternative product closures interplay with consumers' situational use, subjective knowledge, level of self-confidence, and gender to influence the purchase decision.

The results provide support for the importance of such factors as situational use, the consumer's gender, level of self-confidence, and subjective knowledge, and how the style of closure affects the purchase decision. Managerial implications of the findings are mentioned.     

The Joint identification of utility and discount functions from stated choice data: An application to durable goods adoption

We present a survey design that generalizes static conjoint experiments to elicit inter-temporal adoption decisions for durable goods. We show that consumers’ utility and discount functions in a dynamic discrete choice model are jointly identified using data generated by this specific design. In contrast, based on revealed preference data, the utility and discount functions are generally not jointly identified even if consumers’ expectations are known. The separation of current-period preferences from discounting is necessary to forecast the diffusion of a durable good under alternative marketing strategies. We illustrate the approach using two surveys eliciting Blu-ray player adoption decisions. Both model-free evidence and the estimates based on a dynamic discrete choice model indicate that consumers make forward-looking adoption decisions. In both surveys the average discount rate is 43 percent, corresponding to a substantially higher degree of impatience than the rate implied by aggregate asset returns. The estimates also reveal a large degree of heterogeneity in the discount rates across consumers, but only little evidence for hyperbolic discounting.     

When to sell an asset amid anxiety about drawdowns

We consider risk‐averse investors with different levels of anxiety about asset price drawdowns. The latter is defined as the distance of the current price away from its best performance since inception. These drawdowns can increase either continuously or by jumps, and will contribute toward the investor's overall impatience when breaching the investor's private tolerance level. We investigate the unusual reactions of investors when aiming to sell an asset under such adverse market conditions. Mathematically, we study the optimal stopping of the utility of an asset sale with a random discounting that captures the investor's overall impatience. The random discounting is given by the cumulative amount of time spent by the drawdowns in an undesirable high region, fine‐tuned by the investor's personal tolerance and anxiety about drawdowns. We prove that in addition to the traditional take‐profit sales, the real‐life employed stop‐loss orders and trailing stops may become part of the optimal selling strategy, depending on different personal characteristics. This paper thus provides insights on the effect of anxiety and its distinction with traditional risk aversion on decision making.     

Learning About Computers: An Analysis of Information Search and Technology Choice

We estimate a dynamic model of how consumers learn about and choose between different brands of personal computers (PCs). To estimate the model, we use a panel data set that contains the search and purchase behavior of a set of consumers who were in the market for a PC. The data includes the information sources visited each period, search durations, as well as measures of price expectations and stated attitudes toward the alternatives during the search process. Our model extends recent work on estimation of Bayesian learning models of consumer choice behavior in environments characterized by uncertainty by estimating a model of active learning—i.e., a model in which consumers make optimal sequential decisions about how much information to gather prior to making a purchase. Also, following the suggestion of Manski (2003), we use our data on price expectations to model consumers’ price expectation process, and, following the suggestion of McFadden (1989a), we incorporate the stated brand quality information into our likelihood function, rather than modeling only revealed preference data.Our analysis sheds light on how consumer forward-looking price expectations and the process of learning about quality influence the consumer choice process. A key finding is that estimates of dynamic price elasticities of demand exceed estimates that ignore the expectations effect by roughly 50%. This occurs because our estimated expectations formation process implies that consumers expect mean reversion in price changes. This enhances the impact of a temporary price cut. Finally, while our work focuses specifically on the PC market, the modeling approach we develop here may be useful for studying a wide range of high-tech, high-involvement durable goods markets where active learning is important.JEL Classification: C15, C33, C35, C42, C51, C52, D83, D84     

Rational speculative bubbles in the gold futures market: An application of dynamic factor analysis

The existence of speculative bubbles in financial markets has been a longstanding issue under debate. Many financial economists believe that, given the assumption of rational expectations and rational behavior of economic agents, an asset should be priced according to its “market fundamentals.” Others argue that self‐fulfilling rumors of market participants can influence asset prices as well. These self‐fulfilling rumors are initiated by events extraneous to markets and are often called bubbles. The rationality of both expectations and behavior often does not imply that the price of an asset be equal to its fundamental value. In other words, there can be rational deviations of the price from this value—rational bubbles. A rational bubble can arise when the actual market price depends positively on its own expected rate of change, as normally occurs in asset markets. Since agents forming rational expectations do not make systematic prediction errors, the positive relationship between price and its expected rate of change implies a similar relationship between price and its actual rate of change. Under such conditions, the arbitrary, self‐fulfilling expectation of price changes may drive actual price changes independently of market fundamentals; we refer to such a situation as a rational price bubble.¹ © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:79–108, 2001     

THE GENERAL STRUCTURE OF OPTIMAL INVESTMENT AND CONSUMPTION WITH SMALL TRANSACTION COSTS

We investigate the general structure of optimal investment and consumption with small proportional transaction costs. For a safe asset and a risky asset with general continuous dynamics, traded with random and time‐varying but small transaction costs, we derive simple formal asymptotics for the optimal policy and welfare. These reveal the roles of the investors' preferences as well as the market and cost dynamics, and also lead to a fully dynamic model for the implied trading volume. In frictionless models that can be solved in closed form, explicit formulas for the leading‐order corrections due to small transaction costs are obtained.     

VALUATION OF CLAIMS ON NONTRADED ASSETS USING UTILITY MAXIMIZATION

A topical problem is how to price and hedge claims on nontraded assets. A natural approach is to use for hedging purposes another similar asset or index which is traded. To model this situation, we introduce a second nontraded log Brownian asset into the well-known Merton investment model with power law and exponential utilities. The investor has an option on units of the nontraded asset and the question is how to price and hedge this random payoff. The presence of the second Brownian motion means that we are in the situation of incomplete markets. Employing utility maximization and duality methods we obtain a series approximation to the optimal hedge and reservation price using the power utility. The problem is simpler for the exponential utility, and in this case we derive an explicit representation for the price. Price and hedging strategy are computed for some example options and the results for the utilities are compared.     

Bubbles Tomorrow and Bubbles Yesterday,but Never Bubbles Today?

Considering their importance and the amount of effort that has gone into understanding them, asset price bubbles continue to perplex. The evidence of these bubbles seldom squares with what would be expected from standard asset price theory. Unlike the suggestions from theory, expectations of prices of both stocks and houses tend to be procyclical—price expectations are driven by recent price performance. Thus, price expectations are extrapolative rather than rational, as assumed by standard asset price theory. Recognizing the role of extrapolative expectations in asset pricing will make monetary and macroprudential policy both more robust and more complex.     

Fashionable subjects and complicity resistance: power,subjectification, and bounded resistance in the context of plus-size consumers

ABSTRACT

The relationship between consumer governability and consumer resistance has received increasing attention in consumer research, especially with regard to consumers’ physical bodies. However, a deeper understanding of how consumers juxtapose different forms and strategies of governability with respect to which discourses they embody or resist is necessary. Through an analysis of various sources of data, including interviews, fashion blogs, an online retailer’s website, and a fashion magazine, we explore the nuances between processes of subjectification and resistance in the fashion field by considering the multiple powers that act on overweight female consumers’ bodies. We demonstrate the complicated process by which these vulnerable consumers attempt to establish themselves as fashionable subjects as they move between adherence to expectations (biopower and subjectification) and resistance when faced with the impossibility of subjectification in a creative-agentic manner. Finally, we propose the idea of complicit resistance. This resistance only partially confronts the strategies of biopower in the process of subjectification because it is limited by a threshold imposed by biopower.     

Determinants of Fair Trade Product Purchase Intention of Dutch Consumers According to the Extended Theory of Planned Behaviour

The study reported in this paper investigated the determinants of fair trade (FT) product purchase intention among Dutch consumers according to the extended Theory of Planned Behaviour and determined whether the effects of those determinants differ between male and female consumers. To test the various research hypotheses, an online survey with 499 respondents from a Dutch research panel was employed. Results of the multi-group analysis using a structural equation modelling approach reveal that FT product purchase intention of both male and female consumers are predicated on moral obligation and self-identity. The impact of subjective norm on purchase intention is statistically significant for male consumers only. Analyses reveal that, indeed, the impact of subjective norm on FT product purchase intention is moderated by consumers’ gender.