Efficiency of research investments in the presence of international spillovers: wheat research in developing countries⋆

Expenditures on agricultural research in the public sector, including the International Agricultural Research Centers (IARCs) have stagnated and in some cases, declined sharply in recent years. This has focused attention on issues of efficiency of agricultural research systems, especially the number, size, scope, type, and locations of their programs. This paper examines the issue of research efficiency through a case study of wheat improvement research in developing countries. The basic premise of this study is that the optimal level of research investment should be determined in a global model that incorporates direct research spill‐ins. An analytical framework is developed to determine the threshold levels of crop production in a country (or a region within a country) needed to justify crop improvement research programs of different sizes in the presence of spill‐ins from abroad. Spill‐in coefficients are estimated from yield performance of varieties of different origins grown across a range of environments. The model is then applied to analyze the efficiency of current investments in 69 wheat improvement research programs in 35 developing countries. A major conclusion of the paper is that given the magnitude of potential spill‐ins from the international research system, many wheat research programs could significantly increase the efficiency of resource use by reducing the size of their wheat research programs and focusing on the screening of varieties developed elsewhere. ©2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.     

The economic impact of productivity maintenance research: breeding for leaf rust resistance in modern wheat⋆

This paper reports the results of a study undertaken to estimate the economic impact in developing countries of efforts by the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) to breed leaf rust resistant spring bread wheat varieties since 1973. The challenge in estimating these benefits lies in the pathogen's ability to mutate to new races, which may infect previously resistant varieties. Genetic resistance, rather than fungicide application, is the principal means of controlling leaf rust in developing countries. Whereas productivity enhancement is often estimated in terms of yield gains and increased supply, productivity maintenance is measured in terms of the yield losses avoided by the research investment. The internal rate of return on CIMMYT's research investment was estimated at 41%. When discounted by 5%, the net present value was US$ 5.36 billion in 1990 dollars, and the benefit‐cost ratio was 27:l. These findings emphasise the economic importance of maintenance research in crop breeding programs.     

“十四五”时期农村劳动力就业:形势展望、结构预测和对策思路

“十四五”时期,世界处于百年未有之大变局深度演化期,我国农村劳动力就业形势更加复杂,困难和挑战前所未有.供给层面,农村劳动力的规模、结构和意愿显著变化.需求层面,全球化巨大的不确定性增加了就业红利减少的风险,城镇产业新旧动能转换可能导致摩擦性和结构性失业,农村就业承载力和就业空间也迎来调整.综合人口增长和城镇发展态势,...     

Evaluation of results and adaptation of EU Rural Development Programmes

The EU Commission highlights evaluations as important for improving common policies. But do evaluations actually contribute? This paper examines whether this has been the case for the EU Rural Development Programmes (RDPs). We investigate 1) to what extent evaluations have influenced the design of national programmes and 2) if they have affected the Rural Development Regulation on which national programmes are based. Our main finding is that evaluations do not seem to affect future policy to any discernible degree. This is the case for both national programmes and the Regulation itself, which seems to have evolved in response to external pressures. Partly, this may be because evaluations tend to give vague or too general recommendations. Moreover, evaluations seldom apply counterfactual analysis, often because of a lack of data, implying that results may be methodologically questioned. Lastly, evaluations, and RDPs, are hard to locate and seldom translated from their native languages, impairing the possibilities of learning from the experiences of others.     

Optimal generic advertising in an imperfectly competitive food industry with variable proportions⋆

This paper determines the impact of food industry market power on farmers' incentives to promote in a situation where funds for promotion are raised through a per‐unit assessment on farm output and food industry technology is characterized by variable proportions. Specifically, building on earlier studies by Azzam [Am. J. Agric. Econ. 80 (1998) 76] and Holloway [Am. J. Agric. Econ. 73 (1991) 979], Muth's [Oxford Econ. Papers 16 (1965) 221] model is extended to consider the farm‐level impacts of generic advertising when downstream firms possess oligopoly and/or oligopsony power and advertising expenditure is endogenous at the market level. Applying the model to the US beef industry, we find that for plausible parameter values market power reduces farmers' incentives to promote. However, the disincentive is moderated by factor substitution, and effectively vanishes as the factor substitution elasticity approaches the retail demand elasticity. This suggests that the Dorfman–Steiner theorem, suitably modified to account for factor substitution, suffices to indicate optimal advertising intensity in the US beef sector.     

The economic costs of conserving genetic resources at the CGIAR centers⋆

The 11 genebanks of the Consultative Group on International Agriculture (CGIAR) have grown considerably in size over the past few decades, currently holding about 666,000 accessions of germplasm. Conserving germplasm is a very long run, if not in perpetuity, proposition. The mismatch between the mainly annual funding support for this conservation effort and its very long‐term nature and intent is a serious concern. Using the results of five CGIAR genebank case studies (accounting for 87% of the total CGIAR genebank holdings), we estimate the size of an endowment or trust fund that would be required to assure a funding stream to conserve this genetic material for future generations. The annual cost (in year 2000 US$) of conserving and distributing the genetic material presently held in all 11 CGIAR genebanks is estimated to be 5.7 million US$ (mUS$), which could be maintained for all future generations by setting aside a fund of 149 mUS$ (invested at a real rate of interest of 4% per annum). This would be sufficient to underwrite the costs for the CGIAR's current conservation activities in perpetuity (estimated to be 61 mUS$), as well as the cost of maintaining the distribution activities (88 mUS$) that provide germplasm to breeders, scientists, farmers and others world wide.     

Employment Growth, Worker Mobility, and Rural Economic Development

A county-level labor market model is estimated for North Carolina. The model accounts for inter-county commuting, migration, and within-county adjustments to labor demand shocks. Econometric results indicate that most employment growth (70–80%) during the 1980s was accommodated by changes in commuting flows. Evidence is also presented indicating that labor force growth—and, by extension, population growth and associated fiscal impacts—in rural counties is sensitive to employment growth in nearby urban counties. These results highlight two opposing forces related to spatial spillovers that are usually neglected in analyses of the economic and fiscal impacts of employment growth.     

Consumption effects of genetic modification: what if consumers are right?⋆

This paper develops a model of differentiated consumers to examine the consumption effects of genetic modification (GM) under alternative labelling regimes and segregation enforcement scenarios. Analytical results show that if consumers perceive GM products as being different than their traditional counterparts, GM affects consumer welfare and, thus, consumption decisions. When the existence of market imperfections in one or more stages of the supply chain prevents the transmission of cost savings associated with the new technology to consumers, GM results in welfare losses for consumers. The analysis shows that the relative welfare ranking of the ‘no labelling’ and ‘mandatory labelling’ regimes depends on: (i) the level of consumer aversion to GM products; (ii) the size of marketing and segregation costs under mandatory labelling; (iii) the share of the GM product in total production; and (iv) the extent to which GM products are incorrectly labelled as non‐GM products.     

Transboundary water management Game‐theoretic lessons for projects on the US–Mexico border⋆

Of the twelve million people who live within 100 km of the US–Mexico border, 90 percent are clustered in transboundary sister cities that share common water sources and pollution problems. New institutions created to address environmental concerns over NAFTA offer the promise of greater financial and technical assistance for water management in border cities. This paper reviews US–Mexico border water issues and institutions. Using insights from game theory, it draws policy lessons for institutions funding border water projects. We examine how the design of assistance programs, technical support, and pre‐existing water rights and regulations affect project outcomes. The diversity and geographic dispersion of water conflicts suggests potential for applying the interconnected game approach to US‐Mexico water negotiations.     

Agricultural reforms in Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union Status and perspectives⋆

The current status of the agricultural sector in Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union is described, in the context of reforms undertaken during the transition from a centrally planned economy to a market‐based one. Sectoral performance is analyzed, focussing especially on general trends in production, and emerging trading patterns. Five critical basic elements of reform are described, and a table is presented rating each country in the study on progress in completing each type of reform. Overall conclusions are presented, indicating that in each basic element of reform, the CEE countries have achieved considerably more success than those of the CIS. The paper concludes with a discussion of prospects for development in the region.     

城乡一体化发展进程中农村成人教育发展探析

发展农村成人教育是推动城乡一体化发展、提高城镇化质量的内在要求和有效途径。然而,我国农村成人教育面临着供求不足、质量不高、结构不良的现实困境。因此,在城乡一体化发展进程中,应优化农村成人教育发展的长效机制,加大财政、金融支持力度,创新教育模式,整合城乡师资力量,加强创业教育,促进农村成人教育全面发展。     

论农地开发整理中的权属管理

土地开发整理中的权属管理，对巩固土地开发整理成果、提高土地利用效益、避免土地产权纠纷有重要作用和意义。本文从土地开发整理权属管理的基本内容、方式和程序等方面论述了我国农村土地开发整理中的权属管理问题。     

Assets,activities and income generation in rural Mexico: factoring in social and public capital⋆

In recent years, there has been increasing emphasis in the rural development literature on the multiple income‐generating activities undertaken by rural households and the importance of assets in determining the capacity to undertake these activities. Controlling for the endogeneity of activity choice and applying Lee's generalisation of Amemiya's two‐step estimator to a simultaneous equation model, household returns to assets from multiple activities are explored for the Mexico ejido sector. To incorporate the multiple variables representing social and public capital into the analysis, factor analysis is used. The results indicate that the asset position of the household has a significant effect on household participation in income‐generating activities and returns to those activities. Furthermore, the inclusion of measures of social and public capital into the analysis show that these assets play an important role in income‐generating activities and that the influence is dependent on the type of social and public capital as well as the particular activity.     

Farm machinery use,off‐farm employment and farm performance in China

We analyse the joint impacts of farm machinery use and off‐farm employment on maize yields and agrochemical expenses from a household survey of 493 farmers in China. Our findings are obtained from an innovative two‐stage econometric procedure that combines a bivariate ordered probit model with an endogeneity‐corrected ordinary least square regression model. The results show that farmers are jointly making decisions to use farm machines and to work off the farm and that these two household activities affect maize yields and agrochemical expenses in different ways. We show that farm machinery use significantly increases both maize yields and agrochemical expenses, while off‐farm employment significantly decreases agrochemical expenses. Our findings highlight the importance of additional machinery use in increasing farm production; the need to account for possible endogeneity in estimation; and the statistical significance of key household characteristics (gender, education, and household size) on overall farm production.     

Employment Dynamics and Linkages in the Rural Economy: Insights from Senegal

Evidence on rural wage employment is thin and lacks nuance for different employment sources, insights on dynamic effects, and an understanding of the channels of effects. We assess conceptually and empirically the direct and indirect welfare effects of entry and continuation in different types of wage employment in rural Senegal. Using panel data, fixed effects and first-difference estimation, we show substantial positive welfare and linkage effects. We find that participation in wage employment increases per capita income by 143%, and reduces poverty, poverty gap and food insecurity by, respectively, 63%, 89% and 48%. While the direct effect on income is larger for non-agricultural and contractual wage employment, the indirect income effects through self-employment are more pronounced for agricultural and casual wage employment. Our results imply that job creation is important for rural development, that wage employment in agriculture can lead to considerable growth multiplier effects, and that synergies exist between large-scale and small-scale agriculture.     

Is research on marginal lands catching up? The case of unfavourable wheat growing environments⋆

It is widely believed that the Green Revolution had very little effect in unfavourable or marginal environments. Many researchers have been concerned about the slow progress of technical change in marginal environments and the level of research resources allocated to these areas. This paper provides empirical evidence that there has been significant growth in wheat yield potential in marginal environments, especially during the post‐Green Revolution. International yield trial data, covering all major wheat growing environments from 1964 to 1999, were used in estimating the growth in wheat yield potential and changes in yield variability. The global database on wheat varietal adoption and yield gains based on estimated wheat yield growth rates were used to determine production increases due to wheat breeding research. Results show greater progress in shifting the wheat yield frontier in marginal areas, particularly in drought and high temperature environments. Furthermore, yield variability in marginal environments has notably declined, while it has increased slightly in favourable environments. While initial gains came from crossover of varieties from favourable environments, targeted breeding efforts have contributed significantly to more recent productivity growth in marginal environments. Increased production from marginal environments accounted for around 25% of the total wheat production increase in 1997. These findings show greater progress in wheat research and the huge potential of improving wheat productivity in unfavourable environments.     

中国农业农村发展七十年:成就、经验与展望——中国农业经济学会第十次会员代表大会暨2019年学术研讨会综述

<正>2019年是新中国成立70周年,是实施乡村振兴战略、全面建成小康社会、实现第一个百年目标的关键之年。深入贯彻党的十八大、十九大精神和习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想,全面总结新中国成立70年来农业农村取得的巨大成就,深刻分析成功经验,研判当前形势,探讨乡村振兴战略实施路径,将对推动农业农村现代化、推进乡村振兴战略实施具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。为此,中国农业经济学会第十次会员代表大会暨2019年学术研讨会,于2019年11月 15—1