The assessment: the twentieth century

The past century saw unprecedented rises in life expectancyand living standards. It also witnessed major structural changes,the rise of 'big government' and two globalizations. Yet, thecentury's economic history was marred by policy and market failuresresulting in a massive world-wide depression, frequent financialcrises (particularly in the developing world), and several inflationspurts. Central planning set back development for one-thirdof the world's population; transition to the market economywas at best slow, in some instances disastrous. Income distributionwithin countries changed little, while productivity convergencebetween rich and poor economies was virtually absent. Policy-makinglearnt some lessons from the 1930s experience, particularlyin the areas of macroeconomic management, international cooperation,and free trade. Dogmatic recipes, however, were often resortedto at home, aided and abetted by the pretensions of the economicsprofession.     

Were British railway companies well managed in the early twentieth century?1

This paper examines major privately owned British railway companies before the First World War. Quantitative evidence is presented on return on capital employed (ROCE), total factor productivity (TFP) growth, cost inefficiency, and speed of passenger services. There were discrepancies in performance across companies but ROCE and TFP typically fell during our period. Cost inefficiency rose before 1900 but then was brought under control as a profits collapse loomed. Without the discipline of either strong competition or effective regulation, managerial failure was common. This sector is an important qualification to the conventional wisdom that late Victorian Britain did not fail.     

Economic growth in the twentieth century

Estimates of growth rates of real output per head in variouscountries are presented and it is concluded that divergencehas been more common than catch-up in the twentieth century.Trends in the Human Development Index are reported and theseoffer a more encouraging picture of the relative performanceof poor countries. Key issues in growth economics are reviewedagainst the background of the long-run evidence; these includethe plausibility of innovation-based theories of endogenousgrowth, the reasons for the commonplace failure of fast-growingcountries to sustain their growth, and the impact of technologicalrevolutions on productivity growth.     

The veterinary medicine industry in Britain in the twentieth century

Economic historians have focused research effort on accounting for the growth and significance of Britain's pharmaceutical industry, but little effort has so far been directed at the veterinary medicine industry, which formed an important part of the wider sector. This article addresses that gap. Factors responsible for that sector's relative insignificance until the 1950s included a general tendency to slaughter rather than to treat sick animals, the absence of advanced medicines until the innovation of sulpha drugs and antibiotics, and difficult relations with the wider pharmaceutical industry. Thereafter output of veterinary medicines increased dramatically, arising from an exponential growth in the demand for intensively farmed poultry meat. Since the 1980s a decline in the use of drugs in agriculture has caused the industry to concentrate on the health needs of domestic animals rather than those of livestock.     

The distribution of ncome in the UK and OECD countries in the twentieth century

Distributional changes are an important part of the economichistory of the OECD countries over the twentieth century. Inthe UK, income inequality in the 1970s was substantially lowerthan 40 years earlier, and is now much higher than in 1979.The pattern of change in the USA has similarities to that inthe UK, but other countries have exhibited significant differences.In order to explain diversity of experience over time, and differencesin income inequality across countries today, we need to recognizethat the distribution of income is subject to a variety of forces,affecting earnings, wealth, and income. These forces includethe policy choices made by governments affecting market incomesand fiscal redistribution. What we need to explain is why insome periods a number of these forces combine to produce episodesof rising, or falling, inequality. Any single theory, such asthat based on a global shift of demand away from unskilled workers,cannot provide a fully adequate explanation.     

The standard of living in Latin America during the twentieth century1

New and consistent series for Latin American real incomes, life expectancy and adult literacy over the twentieth century reveal that living standards rose most rapidly between the 1930s and 1970s, a period characterised by increased state intervention and reduced trade openness. Within the region, Brazil and Mexico advanced most over the century as a whole despite the early start made by Argentina and Chile, although convergence between larger countries was accompanied by divergence from smaller ones. There was no sustained narrowing of the income gap with the US at all between 1900 and 2000 but some convergence in living standards due to improved life expectancy. Our new estimates of regional per capita income also permit a clearer comparison with both Europe and Asia. The major advances in living standards achieved in the middle decades of the century were closely related to early industrialization, rapid urbanization, and the extension of primary health and education. Subsequent economic volatility and fiscal fragility limited further increases in living standards, undermining social consensus on development strategy.     

Multi-generational educational mobility in China in the twentieth century

Two essential strategies to understand the mechanisms of intergenerational mobility are to compare mobility across countries and across time. However, for multi-generational mobility, estimates for developing countries are mostly missing, and trend studies are rare. This paper uses education to measure social status and provides nationally representative estimates of social mobility over three generations in China that are suitable for international comparison. Results show that grandparents’ education positively correlates with children’s education, controlling for the parents’ education. This grandparent effect is comparable to what is found in Western countries, despite differences in cultures and institutions. During the sample period, the correlation between grandparent and child education is relatively stable. When exploring mechanisms, we find that the observed grandparent effect is primarily due to omitted information from the parents’ generation, not direct interactions between grandparents and children.     

Lead exposure and violent crime in the early twentieth century

In the second half of the nineteenth century, many American cities built water systems using lead or iron service pipes. Municipal water systems generated significant public health improvements, but these improvements may have been partially offset by the damaging effects of lead exposure through lead water pipes. We study the effect of cities' use of lead pipes on homicide between 1921 and 1936. Lead water pipes exposed entire city populations to much higher doses of lead than have previously been studied in relation to crime. Our estimates suggest that cities' use of lead service pipes considerably increased city-level homicide rates.     

Structural change in the developed countries during the twentieth century

The central theme of this paper is the process of structuralchange which occurred during the twentieth century in the leadingindustrial nations. The massive scale of the changes in allthese countries is first illustrated by reference to the reallocationof the labour force between agriculture, industry, and the services,and the process of de-industrialization common to all thesecountries is highlighted. Alternative measures based on outputdata at current and constant prices are also considered. Thepaper then explores the main reasons for these shifts in thepattern of activity, looking at the interacting effects of demand-and supply-side factors. This is followed by an examinationof some of the consequences of structural change, includingthe implications for the labour market and the overall growthof labour productivity. The final section speculates brieflyabout the likely implications for the less-developed countriesfollowing behind this advanced group.     

Trade, empire, and the fiscal context of imperial business during decolonization

Recent studies have shown convincingly that no 'neocolonialist' conspiracies were hatched to perpetuate British commercial dominance in the former colonies after independence, and that relations between individual firms and policy-makers were frequently troubled. In acknowledging the force of this general proposition, however, there is a risk of neglecting the still significant place of commercial considerations in state policy making. By relocating the relationship of trade and empire in the 1950s in an examination of a hitherto neglected dimension of British taxation policy, this article demonstrates that the Conservative government sought to assist British business with colonial interests at a time when these firms faced new uncertainties.     

Linking, de-linking and re-linking: Southeast Asia in the global economy in the twentieth century

This paper examines how links between the economies of Southeast Asia and the world economy have changed over the twentieth century, paying particular attention to growth in commodity exports, investment flows and international migration. Most parts of Southeast Asia expanded their links with the global economy in the latter part of the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, but the years from 1940 to 1965 saw a decline in Southeast Asia's share of tropical exports, and of direct foreign investment. Migration flows also slowed. Over the last four decades of the twentieth century, international links expanded again, but there have been marked variations between countries.     

The contribution of increased life expectancy to economic development in twentieth century Japan

This paper estimates the value of improved health in Japan over the twentieth century. By valuing the decline in the death rate and appending this to existing measures of GDP per capita it is possible to calculate health augmented GDP per capita growth and generate original results about the monetary value of improved life expectancy over the twentieth century in Japan. The findings of the paper indicate that this is a pertinent exercise because GDP per capita growth approximately doubles when it is extended to include increases in the life expectancy of the population of Japan. These results also provide a justification for the increase in health care service spending that was evident at the close of the twentieth century.     

Inequality and infant and childhood mortality in the United States in the twentieth century

This paper deals with the issue of using infant and childhood mortality as an indicator of inequality. The case is that of the United States in the 20th century. Using microdata from the 1900 and 1910 Integrated Public Use Microsamples (IPUMS), published data from the Birth Registration Area in the 1920s, results from a number of surveys, and the Linked Birth & Infant Death Files from the National Center for Health Statistics for 1991, infant and child mortality can be related to such other variables as occupation of father or mother, education of father or mother, family income, race, ethnicity, and residence. The evidence shows that, although there have been large absolute reductions in the level of infant and child mortality rates and also a reduction in the absolute levels of differences across socioeconomic groups, relative inequality has not diminished over the 20th century.