Demand and supply as factors determining economic growth

Summary In models of economic growth the long-run rate of growth is usually determined by exogenous factors like the increase in working population and technical progress. In this article the rate of technical progress is treated as an endogenous variable depending on the increase in real wages and the degree of capacity utilization. A clay-clay production model is presented. Moreover, consumption, investment, changes in wages and in prices are explained by additional equations. Numerical steady state solutions for different values of the parameters are discussed. In each case the specific role played by demand and supply is stressed.The authors are Professor of Economics and Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Tilburg, The Netherlands. They are indebted to Professor S. K. Kuipers for valuable comments on an earlier version of the article.     

Estimate of the demand for financial resources for the economic growth recovery

The paper considers the quantitative scope of the monetary policy that provides the demand of the economy for working capital during the return to economic growth. Directions of monetary and fiscal policies in times of crisis have been substantiated.     

A comparison of national and international aggregate supply and demand var models: The United States,Japan and the European economic community

Zusammenfassung Ein Vergleich von nationalen und internationalen VAR-Modellen mit Angebots- und Nachfrageaggregaten: USA, Japan und Europ?ische Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft. - Es wird gezeigt, da\ für nationale Volkswirtschaften und auch für supranationale Gebilde vektorautoregressive Modelle konstruiert werden k?nnen, die Ergebnisse liefern, welche mit einem theoretischen Rahmen für Aggregate des Angebots und der Nachfrage in Einklang stehen. Energiepreise sind in allen Modellen einigerma\en wichtig, aber Geldangebot und Zinsen sind in dem EWG-Modell ziemlich unbedeutend. Natürlich kann dieses Ergebnis auf die Unterschiede zwischen der EWG, den USA und Japan zurückzuführen sein oder auf die Aggregation innerhalb des EWG-Modells. Trotzdem stimmt dieses Ergebnis mit den theoretischen Erwartungen überein, wonach alle Volkswirtschaften gemeinsamen weltweiten Angebotsschocks gegenüberstehen, aber - bei manipulierten floatenden Wechselkursen - eine gewisse monet?re Unabh?ngigkeit besitzen.

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Resumen Comparación de modelos autoregresivos de oferta y demanda agregada nacionales e internacionales: EE.UU., Japón y la Comunidad Económica Europea. - Se demuestra que los modelos VAR pueden ser construidos para economias tanto nacionales como supranacionales con resultados consistentes con el marco teórico de oferta y demanda agregadas. Los precios de energia tienen una cierta importancia en todos los modelos; la oferta monetaria y las tasas de interés no son importantes en el modelo para la CEE. Sin embargo, este resultado es consistente con expectativas teóricas segiín las cuales todas las economias enfrentan shocks de oferta globales comunes, pero disponen de un cierto grado de independencia monetaria en el marco de una flotatión administrada del tipo de cambio.

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Résumé Une comparaison entre des modéles VAR nationaux et internationaux d’offre et demande agrégée: les E.U., le Japon et la CEE. - Les auteurs demontrent que les modéles vecteurautorégressifs peuvent etre construits pour des économies nationales aussi bien que supranationales et que ces modeles produisent des résultats qui s’accordent avec le cadre théorique de l’offre et de la demande agrégée. Les prix d’énérgie sont importants dans tous les modéles jusqu’a un certain point, mais la masse monétaire et les taux d’ interet sont moins importants dans le modéle CEE. Naturellement, ce résultat peut etre expliqué par les différences entre la CEE et les E.U. et le Japon ou par l’agrégation dans le modéle CEE. Cependant, ce résultat est consistant avec des expectatives théoriques car toutes les économies sont confrontees avec des chocs d’offre communs globaux mais disposent de quelque independance monétaire grace au systéme de changes flottants dirigés.

     

Development of a regional planning model: Consideration of demand,supply and risk factors

Development of regional planning models could aid planners and policy makers to establish more efficient agricultural policy measures in both the developed and less developed sectors of Southern Africa. This article explains the incorporation of negative‐sloping demand functions for crops, positive‐sloping supply functions for labour and variance‐covariance risk matrices in a linear programming model. These factors allow for greater flexibility and realism than the price‐taker assumption often used in linear programming.     

现代旅游供求平衡分析

本文讨论了现代旅游的基本特征,对现代旅游的供求平衡进行了分析,以期形成符合时代发展的正确认识,促进旅游业的进一步发展。     

Incorporating inventories into supply and demand analysis

Conclusion In the microeconomic portions of principles and intermediate macroeconomics, supply and demand analysis is presented as the truth. However, the simple Keynesian macroeconomic model virtually ignores market clearing, while the standard microeconomic model of supply and demand assumes perfect market clearing. Since hidden assumptions are a major source of confusion and misunderstanding between economists and the general public, students should be exposed to stock-flow analysis at the intermediate level as a separate or integrated chapter on supply and demand.     

A model of industrial hollowing-out of neighboring countries by the economic growth of China

Our model is a multi-sectoral version of Romer's variety expansion model that reveals the presense of industrial hollowing-out. The basic idea of the model is similar to that of Lucas [Lucas, Robert E., Jr. 1993, “Making a Miracle.” Econometrica 61, p. 273–302.]. An increase in (external) social experience capital through learning by doing raises labor productivity. It also increases the social capacity to adopt more technology-intensive goods. The model provides the following implications: First, even though the economic growth of China raises the exports of low-level technology goods from neighboring countries to China in the short run, this can lower their future growth potential by lowering the accumulation of social experience capital. Second, without increasing social capacity to adopt more technology-intensive goods, those countries can experience industrial hollowing-out, lower equilibrium wage rates, and a higher unemployment rate. Third, as with conclusions garnered by standard geography models, both a huge market size and very low-level wages in China imply a continuation of discontinuous and lumpy loss of jobs and sectors. In this context, various policies to raise social capacity, besides retraining programs and unemployment safety nets, should be provided by the government to avoid industrial hollowing-out and to allocate labor efficiently.     

Unravelling supply and demand factors in work-related training

This paper attempts to unravel supply and demand factors ofwork-related training by exploiting information from workerswho wanted to receive such training but did not get it Workers'willingness to receive training varies with their level of education,background characteristics, and job characteristics. Firms'gains from training vary across industries, and with workers'gender and age. Half of the untrained workers are not trainedbecause the net returns to the worker would be negative, whilethe net returns to the firm would be positive. For another thirdof the untrained workers exactly the opposite is the case.     

A model of income distribution and economic development

Zusammenfassung Ein Modell über den Zusammenhang zwischen Einkommensverteilung und wirtschaftlicher Entwicklung. — Das in dem vorliegenden Aufsatz entwickelte Modell beweist, da\ die Einkommensverteilung eine wichtige Rolle bei der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung weniger entwickelter L?nder spielen kann. Die Einkommensverteilung ist nicht nur etwa von Interesse für vage Gerechtigkeitsvorstellungen, sondern sie kann selbst einen gr?\eren Beitrag zum Wachstumsproze\ leisten. Der gew?hnlich behauptete ?trade-off? zwischen Wachstum und Gerechtigkeit sollte nicht vorschnell akzeptiert werden. Es l?\t sich zeigen, da\ diese Wachstums-Gerechtigkeits-Alternative unter gewissen Umst?nden nicht besteht. Eine ungleiche Einkommensverteilung kann n?mlich einen Engpa\ für weiteres Wachstum bilden.

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Résumé Un modèle de la distribution du revenue et du développement économique. — Le modèle développé dans cet article démontre que la distribution du revenu peut jouer un r?le important dans le développement économique des pays moins développés. Il ne faut pas croire que la distribution du revenu n’est interessante qu’au point de vue de vagues idées de justice; elle peut, elle-même, contribuer considérablement au processus d’accroissement. Le ?trade-ofi? généralement constaté entre l’accroissement et la justice, ne devrait pas être accepté inconsidérément. On peut démontrer que, dans certaines conditions, l’alternative accroissement-justice n’existe pas. Une distribution inégale du revenu peut très bien former un défilé qui retarde l’accroissement.

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Resumen Un modelo de distribución de ingreso y desarrollo económico. — El modelio elaborado en el presente articulo demuestra que la distribución del ingreso puede desempenar un papel importante en el desarrollo económico de países menos avanzados. La distribución del ingreso no es solamente importante bajo el punto de vista de justicia social, sino también con respecto a la contribución que puede hacer para el crecimiento econ?mico. La afirmación generalizada de la existencia de un ?trade-off? entre crecimiento y justicia no se debería aceptar precipitadamente. Se puede demostrar, que la alternativa entre crecimiento y justicia en ciertas circunstancias no existe. Una distribución desigual del ingreso bien puede ser un cuello de botella para un major crecimiento.

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Riassunto Un modello della distribuzione dei redditi e di sviluppo economico. — Il modello sviluppato nel presente saggio dimostra che la distribuzione dei redditi può avere una parte importante nello sviluppo economico dei Paesi meno sviluppati. La distribuzione dei redditi non ha soltanto importanza per vaghe idee di giustizia, ma puó rendere, essa stessa, un maggior contributo per il processo di crescita. L’usuale affermato ?trade-off? tra crescita e giustizia non dovrebbe essere prematuramente accettato. Si può mostrare che questa alternativa di crescita e giustizia in certe circostanze non esiste. Un’ineguale distribuzione dei redditi può formare infatti una strozzatura per ulteriore crescita.

     

香港经济发展前景探析

在亚洲金融风暴中，香港经济遭受到一定影响，期间虽然港元联系汇率得以维持不变，为经济复苏奠定了基础，但在高昂成本的压力下，尤其是面对亚洲外围国家和地区的货币大幅贬值的不利环境，香港产业结构升转型的重要5性和迫切性大大增加，并成为特区政府、工商界以至整个社会面临的一个严峻挑战。事实上，香港回归后，特区政府既克服港英政府长期以来的短视目光和短期行为，从战略高度开始考虑香港经济的转型。1997年10月，行政长官董建华在他的首份施政报告中就明确表示：“香港工业北移，反映出市场竞争的无形之手，已经向我们指出必须行走的路线。无论是工业，还是服务业，只能向高增值发展。”在新的历史时期，香港经济向高增值的方向升级转型可以说是必然的趋势，它牵涉到两个互相联系的重要问题。     

运用C—D生产函数模型分析深圳经济增长

深圳经济增长因素统计分析 自改革开放以来,深圳经济特点主要表现为持续、高速、稳定增长。一般来说,决定经济增长即产出量增加的主要投入要素有资本、劳动力和与资本、劳动力有关的技术进步。究竟在深圳经济……     

A diffusion model of long-run state economic development

Most empirical studies of state economic development have been relatively short-term in nature. Here, we examine the causes of growth over a more substantial period of time covering almost six decades. Particular emphasis is placed on the so-called convergence hypothesis. A two-stage methodology originally employed to model the diffusion of new technologies is applied. Results tend to confirm the general convergence of state per capita incomes over time. That is, a large share of the observed variation in state economic growth is explained by initial period incomes, with lower income states growing relatively more rapidly. In addition, we find that low taxes and comparatively strong support for higher education foster more rapid growth.