Relative productivity and factor-intensity in the manufacturing sectors of the U.S. and the U.K. during the nineteenth century

Summary The main objective of the paper is to examine the relationship between relative factor-costs and relative factor-intensity in the American and British textile sectors during the nineteenth century. The empirical attempt is made within an explicit theoretical framework (a model). This framework is based primarily onimplicit analytical arguments made by E. Rothbarth and H. J. Habakkuk while explaining the causes for the superiority of American industrial efficiency as compared with the British. It is shown that various indicators for the textile sectors during most of the second half of the nineteenth century favor a higher capitalintensity in the U.S.This work is part of a Ph.D. thesis written for the University of Rochester Department of Economics. The author is deeply indebted to S. Engerman for his valuable help and comments. He has also benefited from comments by E. Drandakis, G. S. Maddala, F. J. de Jong and T. K. Kumar. Needless to say, the author takes full responsibility for the content of this paper. Currently the author is an Assistant Professor at Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, U.S.A.     

A model of real and financial household behaviour

Summary This paper shows that the traditional specification of the consumption function in Dutch macroeconometric models is unsatisfactory. In the traditional approach the fact that the consumption decision is taken simultaneously with financial decisions has been ignored. If both the consumption function and the asset demand equations are modelled simultaneously, then in the Dutch case financial stocks have influence on private consumption. Also it has been shown that the income concept is important in describing household behaviour. In a current income model short-term financial considerations are important in the consumption decision. In a permanent income model long-term financial considerations influence private consumption.The author would like to thank Professor Th. van de Klundert, Professor S.K. Kuipers, Mr. G.H. Kuper and Dr. N.S. Kroonenberg for their comments on an earlier version of this paper.     

Income and substitution effects in family labour supply

Summary In this article, the results are presented of the estimation of a variant of Leuthold's model of labour supply of married couples in the Netherlands. Both in the case of husbands and in the case of wives the labour supply curve proves to be forward bending. The income effects are negative, but significantly different from zero only in the case of wives. The theorem that the substitution effect is positive is confirmed by the empirical results obtained. The labour supply of wives proves to be more sensitive to wage rate and income changes than the labour supply of wives proves to be more sensitive to wage rate and income changes than the labour supply of husbands. A comparison is made between the results obtained here and those mentioned in studies for the United States. The article is closed with an overview of some policy implications. During the period the author contributed to this article he was at the Economic Institute, State University of Utrecht; The authors wish to thank Dr. C. de Galan, Professor J.M.M. Ritzen, Dr. J.J.M. Theeuwes and Professor F.A.A.M. van Winden for their comments on an earlier draft of this article. Unless when stated otherwise, the data are obtained from theAanvullend Voorzieningengebruik Onderzoek 1979, a national survey carried out by the Social and Cultural Planning Bureau. The authors are indebted to this bureau for providing the data. It should be noted that some of these data (e.g. the yearly wage incomes) are based on computational adaptions of the original figures.     

Demand and supply as factors determining economic growth

Summary In models of economic growth the long-run rate of growth is usually determined by exogenous factors like the increase in working population and technical progress. In this article the rate of technical progress is treated as an endogenous variable depending on the increase in real wages and the degree of capacity utilization. A clay-clay production model is presented. Moreover, consumption, investment, changes in wages and in prices are explained by additional equations. Numerical steady state solutions for different values of the parameters are discussed. In each case the specific role played by demand and supply is stressed.The authors are Professor of Economics and Assistant Professor of Economics, University of Tilburg, The Netherlands. They are indebted to Professor S. K. Kuipers for valuable comments on an earlier version of the article.     

A centennial: The walras vision

Summary The purpose of the article is to observe the Walras centennial by restating as simply and as succinctly as possible the core of the Walras vision: considerm outputs,n inputs, and s households. Industry demands inputs and supplies outputs; households demand outputs and supply inputs. Define equilibrium demand, supply, and relative price in all resulting, purely competitive, markets as a system of equations sufficiently complete to determine the value of the variables. In restating the core, the article offers nothing original beyond simplicity and succinctness.For careful reading and a comprehensive critique of an earlier draft, I am indebted to Professor William Jaffé of York University. For permission to quote the translation of Walras he prepared with loving care and superior linguistic skills, I am indebted to him as well as to Richard D. Irwin, Inc., Homewood, Illinois.     

Theo van de Klundert: A frontier economist

Summary Twenty-five years ago, Dr. Theo van de Klundert was appointed as Professor of Economics at Tillburg University. On the occassion of this jubilee the authors review Van de Klundert's contribution to the study of economic science in the The Netherlands. The article focuses on four topics: (1) growth and income distribution, (2) capital theory, resource economics and trade, (3) controversies between Keynesians and (4) open economy macroeconomics. A short remark is made about his teaching. Van de Klundert is praised for the quality and the comprehension of his scientific work.The authors are grateful to S.K. Kuipers and M. Peeters for their useful comments on an earlier draft of this paper.     

Unemployment on account of market imperfection in the Netherlands since the second world war

Summary By means ofUV analysis it has been attempted to gain some insight into the development of unemployment on account of market imperfection in the Netherlands between 1956 and 1975. Three conclusions can be drawn. (i) The imperfection of the labour market has increased not inconsiderably between 1956 and 1975. (ii) Since the beginning of the Seventies structural unemployment has been caused both by the qualitative discrepancies between supply and demand and by a quantitative shortage of jobs. (iii) The increase in market imperfection must be ascribed above all to the steadily growing imperfection of the sections of the labour market corresponding to the occupational groups.[/p]Professor of Economics and Graduate Assistant, Universtiy of Groningen, The Netherlands.The authors would like to thank Professor Th. van de Klundert and their colleagues of the Department of Economics for their valuable comments on the first version of this article.     

The road to pro-poor growth: the Indonesian experience in regional perspective

Indonesia's long-run ‘pro-poor growth’ record is among the best in Asia. It shows that appropriate policies can free societies from poverty's worst manifestations in a generation, a crucial message as democracy begins to influence the policy process. This paper places Indonesia's record in regional perspective, analysing determinants of income distribution in Asia and connecting this analysis to Indonesia's pro-poor growth process and the policy mechanisms that encourage pro-poor growth. Using a data set for eight Asian countries, it examines patterns of change in incomes and distribution across countries and over time. Building on Indonesian experience, the paper presents a pro-poor growth model encompassing three levels: improving the ‘capabilities’ of the poor, lowering transactions costs in the economy, especially between rural and urban areas, and increasing demand for goods and services produced by the poor. It finds that rapid pro-poor growth requires simultaneous and balanced interaction between growth and distribution processes.     

Den Hartog and Tjan's vintage model as a tool for the determination of structural unemployment: Some critical remarks

Summary The use of the vintage model with fixed coefficients as devised by den Hartog and Tjan for determining the causes of structural unemployment, is scrutinized; one should realize that this model had a great impact on the analysis of the unemployment situation by the Dutch government. On methodological grounds a sensitivity analysis of the model is performed and it is argued that the margins of uncertainty adhering to the results of this model are so large as to make the model in its current form a very questionable basis for an effective policy.The authors are indebted to Professors F. J. de Jong and Th. C. M. J. van de Klundert for valuable comments.     

A simple multisector model with six sectors of production estimation and simulation results for the 1950–1968 period

Summary In this article a simple multisector model for the Netherlands is presented with six sectors of production. Estimation and simulation results are based on input-output data for the period 1950–1968. Simple log-linear equations (containing both relative price factors and scale factors) are used to describe the demand for (intermediary and primary) factors of production and the demand for final output (including private investment). Sectoral product prices and wage rates are determined within the model. This applies to the generation of disposable income of households as well. Using this simple multisector model, actual economic developments during the 1955–1968 period can be simulated in a reasonably satisfactory way.I am indebted to Professor S.K. Kuipers of the University of Groningen, Professor J. Muysken of the University of Limburg and an anonymous referee for their advice and their critical remarks. The Netherlands Organisation for the Advancement of Pure Scientific Research subsidized the multisector modelling project, of which this article summarizes the results (grant number 46–73).     

Housing demand in Shanghai: A discrete choice approach

In this study we apply a random utility modeling framework to analyze housing demand in the city of Shanghai. A Multinomial Logit Model taking account of latent choice sets is employed to investigate the impact of household characteristics, such as income, size and age composition, on the choice of dwelling, specified by location, size and unit price. In addition to the price and income effects on housing demand, the model identifies a quality indicator for dwelling attributes, which can be interpreted as the mean attractiveness in a money metric measure.The data used in this study are cross-sectional survey data. The estimated model is used to calculate demand elasticities and demand probabilities, for selected groups of households and types of dwellings. Among the results can be noted that the price–income ratios, the age composition and size of household are all important determinants of the demand. The impact of income distribution on housing demand is also studied.     

内蒙古羊肉供求实证分析

通过供求理论结合产业特征分析，确定影响羊肉供求的主要因素，构建供求模型，研究发现：供给主要决定于上期价格和出栏率，需求主要决定于本期价格、居民收入和猪肉价格；对于价格而言，供给缺乏弹性，而需求富有弹性；羊肉需求收入弹性大于1，羊肉属于肉类消费中的高档品。羊肉特别是活羊的最低保护价，科技示范推广，以及品牌建设，是牧区实现草原生态保护前提下增加牧民收入的关键因素。     

Causes of labour supply and demand mismatches in the Dutch building trades

Summary In this paper the significance of some hypotheses on possible causes of labour supply and demand mismatches is tested on data of the Dutch building trades by means of a UV analysis. In contrast with most other UV research this study does not refer to a search-theoretical framework, but focuses on skill differences between labour supply and demand. Three significant causes of labour market frictions appear to be: the development of the skill composition of labour demand, the apprenticeship possibilities and the relatively high wages of older workers. Some other hypotheses show weakly significant results: bumping-down processes, reschooling of unemployed older workers and the development of secondary labour market segments.At the moment of writing this paper the author was working at the Department of Economics, Free University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.The author would like to thank Professor J.A.M. Heijke, dr. N. van Hulst, Professor J.G. Knot, Professor J.J.M. Theeuwes and Professor A.J. Vermaat for their helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper and G.A. van Pruissen for his assistance in computer work.     

提高农民收入的玉米生产技术选择途径分析

在黄祖辉、刘进宝等人研究的基础上,从理论和实证两个方面分析了玉米技术进步与农民收入之间的负相关关系,采用计量经济模型计算出玉米供给弹性与需求弹性之差约为0.27,充分证明了技术进步对农民收入增长产生了负面影响。在实证分析基础上,对这一现象进行了理论分析,认为玉米为缺乏弹性的农产品,应从减少玉米供给曲线右移幅度和推动玉米需求曲线右移两个方面提出既能够增加玉米产量又能够增加农民收入的措施。     

我国经济发展方式转变对策研究——基于居民收入分配差距分析

文章从国民收入分配格局出发,得出我国GDP增加额主要流向企业和政府,居民的收入增长低于经济增长,造成我国投资过剩,内需不足;而不断扩大的居民收入分配差距进一步降低了我国的消费率,制约我国经济的发展。从对居民在城乡、性别、年龄和受教育程度方面的收入分配差距分析,得出农村具有巨大的消费潜力,女性的边际消费率较高,年龄介于35-44岁的居民具有高收入高学历的特征。文章认为,为拉动内需而转变发展方式应从增加居民的货币收入、抑制高房价、缩小城乡差距、提高女性就业率和加大社保与教育投入等方面着手。     

Effects of Patent Policy on Income and Consumption Inequality in a R&D Growth Model

To analyze the effects of patent policy on growth and inequality, this article develops a quality‐ladder model with wealth heterogeneity and elastic labor supply. The model predicts that strengthening patent protection increases (a) economic growth by stimulating spending on research and development and (b) income inequality by raising the return on assets. Elastic labor supply creates an additional effect on income inequality. As for consumption inequality, the effect is ambiguous and depends on the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. Calibrating the model to the U.S. data shows that strengthening patent protection increases income inequality by more than consumption inequality, and this pattern is consistent with the data.     

Some considerations on a class of macro-economic production functions

Summary It is demonstrated that dimensional analysis can be a tool in investigating the properties of a production function. First, the economic implications of the CES Function are shown. Secondly, endorsing the statements made by the SMAC Group that the Leontief and the Cobb and Douglas types of the production function arise as limiting cases of the CES production function, detailed proofs of these statements are given that maintain the dimensional homogeneity in proceeding to the limits. It is shown that certain dimensional constants of the CES production function become dimensionless entities in the limit.Finally, an expression for the curvature of the isoquants is derived. A dimensionally homogeneous relation is presented between the elasticity of substitution, the slope, the curvature and the factor endowments. This relation can be used to derive a general Variable Elasticity of Substitution production function.1970-71 Visiting Professor, Department of Economics, F.S.U. (Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, U.S.A.).The authors thank Professor Th. van de Klundert, Dr. H. de Haan and Dr. S. K. Kuipers for their useful comments on the first draft of this paper.     

再议启动农村居民消费

开拓农村消费市场、启动农村居民消费是扩大内需、拉动经济发展的重要一环。文章在介绍农村居民消费现状的基础上,就制约我国农村居民消费发展的因素进行了简要分析,其中包括收入水平偏低、收入增长缓慢、消费环境较差、基础设施落后、消费结构不合理等等,并相应指出了开拓农村消费市场、启动农村居民消费的对策建议,如增加农村居民收入、改善农村消费环境、改善农村市场的产品供应、加快小城镇建设等等。     

Structural change in oecd countries: A normal pattern analysis

Summary This article discusses the development of sector shares against the background of growingper capita income and some other key variables. It elaborates on Chenery's normal pattern approach, which emphasizes the existence of regularities. Long-term dynamics in the economic structure are quantified. Conclusions are drawn with respect to the continuing process of industrialization, the role of the service sector and the rise or decline of manufacturing subsectors. The slow-down of overall growth rates and the discovery of energy resources are given special attention. Finally it is tried to detect some country-specific specialization patterns.I am indebted to Professor Theo van de Klundert and to my colleagues Robert de Groof and Anton Markink.     

The Balance-of-Payments Constraint and Growth Rate Differences Among African and East Asian Economies

The balance-of-payments constrained growth rate model postulates that the balance of payments position of a country is the main constraint on economic growth, because it imposes a limit on demand to which supply can adapt. This paper applies the model to a sample of African and Asian countries aiming at explaining growth rate differences among these countries by quantifying the individual and combined contributions of export growth, capital flows and changes in the terms of trade in each country’s case. The results obtained give support to the argument that, in contrast to Asian countries, the low growth rates in African countries are explained by low export expansion relative to the imports required for the processes of growth and development. This poor performance of African countries is attributed to the low magnitudes of their dynamic Harrod foreign trade multipliers, which are determined by the respective income elasticities of demand for exports and imports. It is asserted that the low dynamic Harrod foreign trade multipliers of African countries are direct products of their excessive dependency on the exportation of primary products. — Le modèle de taux de croissance contrariés par la balance des paiements postule que la position de la balance des paiements constitue le principal obstacle à la croissance économique d’un pays, dans la mesure où elle impose une limite à la demande à laquelle l’offre pourrait s’adapter. Le présent article applique ce modèle à un échantillon de pays africains et asiatiques afin d’expliquer les différences de taux de croissance entre ces pays, en quantifiant la contribution individuelle et collective de facteurs tels que la croissane des exportations, les flux de capitaux et la variation des termes de l’échange dans chaque pays. Les résultats obtenus confortent l’argument selon lequel, contrairement à ce qui se passe dans les pays asiatiques, la modicité des taux de croissance dans les des pays africains s’explique par la faible expansion des exportations par rapport aux importations nécessaires pour assurer le processus de croissance et de développement. Cette performance médiocre des économies africaines est imputée à l’insuffisance de leur multiplicateur dynamique du commerce extérieur de Harrod, qui est déterminé par leurs élasticités-revenu de la demande d’exportations et d’importations. Cette insuffisance est elle-même une conséquence directe de la dépendance excessive de ces pays à l’égard des exportations de produits de base.