Co-movement among oil,stock, bond,and housing markets: An analysis of U.S., Asian,and European economies

This study explores the co-movement among oil and the stock, bond, and housing markets of the U.S. and major developed countries across Europe and Asia. The results indicate that oil is long-run integrated with each asset class, and that the extent of convergence has increased after the onset of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis (GFC). Moreover, oil contributes most heavily toward the common trends, implying that oil is the “leader” sector that drives each asset class toward long-run equilibrium relationships. Short-run analyses indicate that oil shocks induce a negative response in stock and housing returns and a positive reaction in bond returns, showing a tendency to become more intense and persistent after the GFC. When oil shocks are disentangled, the results indicate that supply and demand have heterogeneous effects on the three global asset classes. Over the long-run, demand shocks make the most significant contribution to the common trends and “lead” the other asset classes, whereas supply shocks have either a negligible or a weaker impact. Over the short-run, demand shocks positively impact the stock and housing markets and negatively impact bonds, while supply shocks induce negative and weaker impacts on all three asset classes.     

The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Output

This analysis explores the effects of oil price shocks on U.S. economic growth. We begin with a well-known model developed by James Hamilton, consider refinements to his definition of an oil price “shock,” and then explore alternatives to his basic reduced-form model. We find that a structurally inspired error-correction model for non-farm business output, which allows for oil price changes to have both long-run and short-run effects, performs better than the basic reduced-form model and also shows significantly smaller adverse effects of rising oil prices. Our preferred model suggests that oil prices reduced GDP growth by about 0.4 percentage point on average through the first three quarters of 2008, before contributing 1.7 percentage points in the fourth quarter as prices plummeted.     

The effect of oil price shocks on asset markets: Evidence from oil inventory news

We quantify the reaction of U.S. equity, bond futures, and exchange rate returns to oil price shocks driven by oil inventory news. Across most sectors, equity prices decrease in response to higher oil prices before the 2007/2008 crisis but increase after it. Positive oil price shocks cause a depreciation of the U.S. dollar against a broad range of currencies but have only a modest effect on bond futures returns. The evidence suggests that changes in risk premia help to explain the time-varying effect of oil price shocks on U.S. equity returns.     

总供给冲击、总需求冲击与我国经济波动关系的实证研究

本文利用1994年1季度至2012年2季度产出和价格的季度数据,建立了基于长期约束的SVAR模型,用以分析总供给冲击和总需求冲击对我国经济波动的影响,考察经济增长和价格对总供给冲击和总需求冲击的动态响应。实证研究表明,总供给冲击和总需求冲击标准差均较大,而且总需求冲击波动性要大于总供给冲击的波动性,说明我国经济在样本数据期内存在波动性。脉冲响应分析发现,总供给冲击对于产出具有正向长期趋势,而总需求冲击对于产出具有正向短期影响;对于价格而言,总供给冲击对价格产生负向长期影响,而总需求冲击对价格产生正向长期影响。2011年以来我国经济增速持续放缓,主要在于供求冲击为负,供给负冲击更为显著。     

AGGREGATE SUPPLY,DOMESTIC ABSORPTION,AND TERMS OF TRADE: A STRUCTURAL DECOMPOSITION OF THE U.S. TRADE BALANCE

Using an intertemporal model as a reference, this article decomposes U.S. trade balance movements into parts driven by supply shocks, demand shocks, and relative price shocks. In identifying structural shocks, we propose a new type of long-run restriction that extends the previous structural Vector Autoregression (VAR) literature, and demonstrate its relationship to other identifying schemes. Empirical results indicate that relative price shocks and demand shocks are important in the short run while demand and supply shocks dominate in the long run in explaining the U.S. trade balance.     

Identifying macro-determinants of remittance flows to a developing country: The case of Uganda

This paper employs minimum Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root tests for endogenous structural breaks combined with ARCH and GARCH models to investigate how key macrovariables impact diaspora remittances. Since remittances can reverse-cause exchange rate movements and domestic income, we use changes in the world price of oil denominated in U.S. dollars to proxy movements in the Uganda shilling nominal effective exchange rate. To control for endogenous bias between remittances and income, we use rainfall shocks as proxies for income shocks in a non-oil-producing developing economy dominated by agricultural sector and its related activities. In addition, large movements in oil price and rainfall shocks typically cause large supply shocks that can significantly impact size of remittance inflows. We control for interest rate differential, political business cycles and seasonality. Results indicate that accounting for structural change in intercepts (levels) and slopes (trends) of key macroeconomic determinants of remittances around their major structural break points significantly increases their explanatory power. In particular, positive (negative) innovations in income and depreciation (appreciation) in the currency of a recipient developing country are negatively (positively) correlated with remittance inflows. These results are robust across different model specifications.     

The impact of oil price movements on bank non-performing loans: Global evidence from oil-exporting countries

It is generally believed that economic and financial performance in oil-rich countries are interlinked to oil price movements. On this assumption, we consider whether oil prices shocks have any impact on bank non-performing loans (NPLs), and if so, whether the effect is homogenous across banks. This paper addresses these questions by applying a dynamic GMM model on data from 2310 commercial banks in 30 oil-exporting countries over the period 2000–2014. Three main results emerge. First, changes in oil prices do have a significant impact on bank NPLs: A rise (fall) in oil prices is associated with a decrease (increase) in NPLs. Second, oil prices shocks have asymmetric effects on bank problem loans, with negative oil price movements generally have a greater impact than positive oil price movements. Third, the unfavourable impact of adverse oil prices shocks on the quality of bank loans tends to be more pronounced in large banks. Overall, these robust results favour the adaptation of appropriate macroprudential policies and diversification of the economy, in order to mitigate the adverse impact of oil prices shocks.     

能源冲击对中国部门间劳动力市场需求结构的影响

本文在可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型的基础上,结合2007年社会核算矩阵(SAM),模拟了国际能源冲击下中国宏观经济活动以及微观劳动力市场的变动情况,同时具体分析了能源冲击对部门间劳动力市场需求结构的影响和传导机制。研究发现,在面对能源冲击时,不同部门的劳动力需求变化也各不相同,制造业、农林牧渔业等劳动力密集型部门倾向于提供更多的劳动岗位,并且这些岗位主要是面向对能源有较强替代性的技术工人,而其余大部分部门则倾向于缩减劳动岗位的供应;在收入方面,随着能源价格上涨,各类工人收入都会出现不同程度的下降,其中以技术工人降幅最大,产业工人次之,而农业工人的收入在能源价格上涨到一定程度后会出现上升。     

The global financial crisis and small- and medium-sized enterprises in Japan: how did they cope with the crisis?

In this paper, we examine the nature of the shocks that hit the small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Japan during the global financial crisis that occurred in the wake of the massive number of non-performing subprime loans in the U.S. We examine how the SMEs responded to the shocks, using the unique surveys that were conducted by the Research Institute of the Economy, Trade and Industry in 2008 and 2009. The shocks were identified as demand, supply, and financial shocks. The demand shock was the most prevalent of the shocks, while the financial shock was least frequent. The SMEs took a spectrum of measures against the demand shock by seeking help from suppliers and financial institutions. We find that the measures taken by the SMEs crucially depended on the bank–firm relationship as well as the customer–supplier relationship. The bank-dependent SMEs asked their closely-affiliated financial institutions for help, while the SMEs less dependent on financial institutions sought help primarily from their suppliers. A long customer–supplier relationship plays an important role in mitigating the supply shock.     

Oil shocks and external balances

We provide estimates of the effects of demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market on several measures of oil exporters' and oil importers' external balances, including the oil trade balance, the non-oil trade balance, the current account, capital gains, and changes in net foreign assets (NFA). First, we show that the effect of oil demand and supply shocks on the merchandise trade balance and the current account, which depending on the source of the shock can be large, depends critically on the response of the non-oil trade balance. Our results provide evidence of an intermediate degree of international financial integration. Second, we document the presence of large and systematic valuation effects in response to these shocks. Valuation effects overall tend to cushion the effect of oil demand and supply shocks on the NFA positions of oil exporters and oil importers. Third, we quantify the overall importance of global business cycle demand shocks as well as oil-market specific demand and supply shocks for external balances.     

重点行业:化肥春讯来临

我国出口贸易已迈入恢复发展之际,借助多方推手共同作用的化肥行业已迎来新的转机。2009年下半年,化肥行业出口形势已经止住下跌势头,企稳回调。国家刚刚颁布的2010年关税实施方案下调了化肥行业淡季出口关税,为该行业未来出口业     

The impact of world oil price shocks on the Canada/U.S. real exchange rate

This article investigates whether and how changes in the world oil price affect the Canada/U.S. real exchange rate. We applied vector autoregression and vector error correction models for the real exchange rate, world oil price, monetary differential, government spending, and productivity differential between the two countries. Our results demonstrate that a surge in the world oil price will lead to an appreciation of the Canadian dollar in the short and long term. Product differentials and U.S. government spending have a negative impact on the Canada/U.S. real exchange rate, and Canadian government spending leads to a depreciation of the Canadian dollar.     

美国技术壁垒对我国农业出口影响的实证研究

重点研究美国农业技术壁垒对我国农业出口的影响。建立向量自回归模型,通过脉冲响应函数和方差分析得出我国农业出口与国外技术壁垒间的相关关系。模型结果表明,美国农业技术壁垒长期内会对我国农业出口产生负面影响,其对我国农产品出口的影响随时间推移逐渐变小。国外消费者需求与我国农产品出口存在显著关系。     

The macroeconomic effects of commodity market disruptions in open economies

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of two of the principal causes of the commodity price boom in 1973-74: bad harvests and commodity speculation. The analysis uses a dynamic, fixprice-flexprice model in which exchange rates are flexible and commodities serve as both an asset and a consumption good. Commodity market disruptions of the magnitude that occurred in 1973-74 are shown to have significant effects on prices, exchange rates, trade flows, and capital flows — effects that persist long after the initial shock has passed. Asset markets, defined to include commodity markets, play a central role in transmitting these shocks throughout the world economy.     

Openness and growth: an interpretation of empirical evidence from East Asian countries

This study investigates the effect of openness on economic growth for rapidly growing economies in East Asia in which rapid growth has been accompanied by a persistent openness to world trade. The framework of analysis is a five-variable vector autoregressive model that consists of real output, money supply, real government spending, foreign price shocks, and openness measures. The results do not strongly support the 'new' growth theories in which increasing openness affects long-run growth. For most countries in the sample, fiscal policy shocks as well as foreign price shocks have greater impacts on economic growth than does the openness shock. The results are generally consistent with the view that the role of the government is critical for growth among the East Asian economies.     

The Importance of Global Shocks for National Policymakers – Rising Challenges for Sustainable Monetary Policies

This paper analyses the importance of global shocks for the global economic developments and national policymakers from a novel perspective. On the one hand, we examine whether global factors convey additional information about monetary conditions not summarised by national aggregates. More specifically, we keep an eye on the question whether domestic monetary policies have become less effective in the wake of financial globalisation. We adopt a FAVAR framework to derive structural shocks on a worldwide level and their impact on other global and also national variables. We estimate our macromodel using quarterly data from Q1 1984 to Q4 2012 for the G7 countries plus the euro area. According to our results, global liquidity shocks significantly influence the global economy at the commodity price level. However, some other common shocks originating from house prices and GDP play a role at the global level as well.     

我国总量经济波动的识别与结构分析

本文利用HP滤波、VAR模型的脉冲响应分析以及时变参数的状态空间模型对我国总量经济波动的结构因素进行了分析,得出结论26年中,我国总量经济波动既受需求冲击的影响,也受供给冲击的影响,但两种冲击的强度和对总量经济波动产生的影响有所差异。1997年之前,需求冲击一直是经济波动的主要原因,但自1997年之后,由于两种冲击的互补效应,总量经济波动有所收敛,经济运行处于一种相对稳定的状态。然而就单位冲击对经济波动的影响而言,1998年之后,供给冲击逐渐超过了需求冲击,成为自2002年之后经济波动的主要原因。本文的研究结论表明,适时地由需求管理转向供需同时管理应成为今后宏观调控的主要取向。     

Increases in energy prices,costs of production,and plant size

A translog cost function is estimated for U.S. manufacturing in order to investigate plant size differences in responses to increases in energy prices. Smaller plants were more intensive users of energy in the early 1970s but were also better able to substitute out of energy and into other inputs during the first round of energy price increases. As a result, by the mid-1970s larger plants had become more intensive energy users. Thus, later energy price increases probably had a greater adverse impact on the production costs of larger plants in manufacturing.     

中美两国间价格体系的动态传导机理

本文采用向量自回归模型和Granger因果关系检验,动态分析了中国与美国间价格体系的传导机理。结果表明:中美两国间的价格体系存在显著的动态传导关系;美国CPI和PPI波动对中国价格体系均具有较强的动态冲击,其中以PPI主导的正向传导特征明显,而CPI对中国价格体系的冲击路径则表现为差异性;中国CPI和PPI波动仅对美国PPI具有正向传导效应,但冲击影响的持续性明显较弱;与美国国内价格体系的传导特征不显著相比,中国国内价格体系在受到外部冲击时表现为明显的交互加强特征。因此,我国在政策制定过程中必须充分考虑外部价格冲击的影响,从而确保政策目标的顺利实现和经济的健康发展。     

Valuation effects with transitory and trend productivity shocks

Changes in asset prices of a country's foreign assets and liabilities (“valuation effects”) are commonly thought of as stabilizing: they counteract current account movements and mitigate the impact of the current account on the country's net foreign asset (NFA) position. This paper shows that whether valuation effects are stabilizing or not depends critically on the nature of the underlying productivity shocks. In response to transitory shocks, valuation effects are stabilizing; but in response to trend shocks, such effects amplify the impact of the current account on NFA position. These contrasting effects arise because optimally smoothing consumers respond differently to a transitory shock than to a trend shock to income. This theoretical result finds empirical support with G7 countries' data, and is illustrated by the pattern of external imbalances between the U.S. and other G7 countries since the 1990s.